The Future of the Republican Party.

 Presidents come and go but their political parties live on is an apt dictum based upon history. However in the aftermath of the 2020 election and in the backdrop of Donald Trump’s presidency that historical dictum has been scuttled to the bottom of the lake for the Republican Party. The biggest reason for this is the rise of Trumpism and a cult around the persona of President Trump; a cult not in the strain of Reaganism, which was political direction that Republicans embraced, but a cult of negativism and division which, in the end analysis, will hurt the Republican Party. 

The Trump effect on the GOP sin terms of new voters and herding in the marginalised white non college educated voters was immense. These are referred to as the MAGA base upon which Trump rests his political leverage. It is suggested that they form a sizeable chunk of 30 million voters out of the 70 million voters who cast their lot with Trump in the 2020 election. This is a key vote bank that Trump feels he personally controls and is a mix of rural segments, white nationalists, older generation voters, evangelicals  and ultra conservatives. Trump has been able to use this base to marshall GOP politicians into his camp knowing that these congressmen cannot afford to lose support of the MAGA crowd. 

Trump has played with the idea of a 2024 run for the highest office and while he continues to  election results he has raised a sizeable war chest of money, most of it under his own control, extending a mystery as to his intentions. Unlike previous Presidents Donald Trump’s motive to remain politically relevant is a function of him seeking some form of political insurance in the face of possible legal cases that could emerge once he is out of office. Alternatively Trump enthused by the power of the Presidency would like to Conte a career in politics even though rarely have ex Presidents sought office a after losing an election. 

While Mr Trumps political ambitions are best known to himself he must certainly be encouraged by his MAGA support which may well be behind the rumoured bid for public office by his daughter Ivanka. Given his narcissist nature he would be tempted to wield this power over a significant portion of the Republican Party and therefore we would see his influence on display at least for the a year or two after he leaves office.

For the core Republican Party there is hope that once out of office Mr Trump will lose relevance and perhaps influence on the party. They would also hope that a number of the 126 congressmen who went along with Mr Trumps challenge to the election results would return to the fold of the party. The likes of Mitt Romney and others like him would like to steer the party away from Trumpism and their focus will likely be on the changing demographics of the US population. It is estimated that by 2024 almost 55% of US voters will be millennials and what is known as the generation Z, all coming from a diverse ethnic mix. These younger voters have a more liberal outlook and their priorities revolve around housing, jobs and social equity in the economic system.

The Democrats have caught on to this effect and a number of their congressmen were voted on on a progressive platform; an agenda that is confusingly called socialist when in fact it is more akin to the social democratic movement we have seen in Europe. The think tank within the GOP is aware that changing demographics are going to be a major challenge for their party and Trumpism, while increasing the size of their vote bank in 2020, was also responsible for a larger turnout for Biden amongst the very voter profile that will be significantly larger in 2024. 

Post Trumps presidency their are likely to be tensions between the core of the Republican Party and Trump and he will try and wield his MAGA card to control the party. One may question to what purpose? Perhaps to position a presidential bid in 2024 or promote his daughters political ambitions or to create a caucus loyal to him within the party! The problem for the GOP is not only Trumps desire to be politically relevant but he does hold over $200 m he raised post election, ostensibly to pay for the court battles to over turn the election results. If the GOP resists Trumps bid to continue to lead the Republican Party there is a high probability that Donald Trump will launch his own MAGA party. 

This is a nightmare scenario for the Republican Party and in the broader context remove any serious challenge to the Democrats in the next election in 2024. While political theorists may welcome the emergence for a third political party of significance within the USA in  the short term it will benefit the Democrats. Should a third party emerge under the patronage of Trump it will leave the Republican Party seriously depleted in the short term. However, it will force the GOP to reinvent itself to appeal more to the new segments of voters entering the electoral rolls in America. One may also assume eventually a MAGA party will lose relevance even though this may take a decade or so, till which time it will remain a nuisance on the political landscape. 

While Trump, in 2015 hijacked the Republican Party, in 2020 he is setting the stage to mould it into the direction only he wishes, failing which, he is willing to let it implode. He draws strength from the cultist support of the MAGA crowd and knows if he has to seize permanent control of the Republican Party he needs more like minded congressmen and not just politicians who favour his brand of politics because they fear his wrath. This is why it is more likely that Trumps newly raised money will be important for him to seek the allegiances he desires. 

On a final note it is highly likely that Trump bogged down by legal cases, some of which were put on hold given his position has President, and a strong move to disfranchise him from the Republican Party may just result in his withdrawal from public or political life. While this is what may eventually happen but it is more than likely that it will be a long drawn process bringing with it considerable anguish to die hard Republicans. In the coming months this drama will play out with the gusto and hyperbole we expect of Mr. Trump, as he asserts he didn’t lose the election and to prove it he would want to win the Republican Party.

King Trump: Unravelled.

 If Donald Trump had to choose a character from history he would probably love to be King Henry VIII, a demagogue with absolute power who expected nothing less that totally fealty from his advisors and subordinates. His demand for total submission extended to his personal life and was not averse to executing those of his wives he felt had been disloyal to him. While Trump has not gone that far he does have an uncanny similarity to the way King Henry banished his closest advisors when they disagreed with him.

Trumps transition from business life, where he was, by and large, the sole decision maker, to public office, where consensus and cooperation are essential, was never really complete. For those who wished him to succeed in the role of the President of the United States and had secretly hoped that he would internally acknowledge his lack of experience in public office and embrace counsel and advice there has been nothing but disappointment. His first assertion that his inauguration crowd was bigger than Obama’s inauguration crowd, while a total fabrication, was seen as Trump being Trump. Few could imagine that this compulsive propensity to lie would become a hallmark of his presidency. 

Unlike King Henry VIII, President Trump had to contend with a free press and media which would, like it has done with all in office, question his decisions and actions. While the route to execute those in the press who he saw as critics was not available to Trump, (which King Henry would have done), the best course for Trump was to continually label the press as fake media. The more he called the main steam media as fake the less was the possibility that his base would believe the media even when the media was right. Rather than send the likes of CNN to the gallows, which King Henry would have ordered, Trump executed their credibility, at least within his own base. 

This relentless assault on the media was never aimed to win them over but to discredit them in the eyes of his base of largely non college educated White people to the point that he and his core supporters could then plant any conspiracy in their minds and it would be believed even when facts indicated otherwise. Today after an election loss Trump can claim the election is rigged even though his own government’s various offices have confirmed it was the most secure election in US history. In classical terms this is brainwashing the audience to the point of blindness and has been the signature of autocratic regimes. In the wash of this brainwashing, whether coincidental or not, quite a few well placed Republicans have taken the mantle of the Trump dogma with a fervour of being more loyal than the King. 

Character always shows it complete spectrum when we are faced with the adversity of a loss. Today, after a loss in the election, President Trump is less presidential and more of King Trump battling to not surrender the throne he sees as only his and only to be passed to his kith and kin, (his reference to his daughter or son being deserving to contest the election one day). King Trump feels besieged within the White House as he broods his last gasp moves to survive, much like King Henry was beleaguered after being excommunicated by Pope Clement VII. King Henry broke with the papal church and declared himself the head of the Church of England and converting the money paid to Rome into Royal Revenue for his personal gain. Gratefully for the United States there is a Constitution, Congress and a Supreme Court alongside the media and close to 80 million people who voted against him.

Trump still has 73 million Americans who voted for him and about 15 million of them are his die hard MAGA supporters. King Trump knows that losing the throne in the Oval Office may be a disaster in many respects yet he does leave with some leverage over the Republican Party. Secretly he must also wish that should he be prosecuted for illegalities the radical white supremacists could well come out to defend his name and honour. While within the core of the Republican Party there will be an effort to rid their ranks of Trumpism it is more likely that this election defeat will effect Trump in a way that he will shun ever contesting public office. In the end he never likes losing and the label of a loser is something he threw on many who got his disfavour.

As the days of the Trump presidency draw to a close one must be sure that Trump will follow a scorched earth policy. He aim will be to leave the  Biden administration with as many bushfires as possible, both domestic and foreign. The lack of cooperation on a transition effects policy, the pandemic, the economy and national security.  In foreign relations one would not be surprised some military action is ordered by Trump leaving Biden with war flames to extinguish. This is how King Trump thinks; if  I cannot live in the house I will burn it down. 

There is a less painful way out of this and that would be to invoke the 25th Amendment and remove Trump on the basis he is incapacitated. It has been almost twelve days since he has done any presidential work, instead brooding, watching TV, playing golf or tweeting. Those who saw through the facade know that Trump started his tenure with a lie about the crowd at his inauguration and ends it with a lie that he won the election. This, sadly, may well be the only thing we eventually remember about King Trump, while to his MAGA crowd he will remain a cult hero who gave a voice to the Proud Boys and the white suprematists.

Trump and Trumpism post election.

 Irrespective of the noise of fraud from Trump his loss of the White House is inevitable. However, while Trump may eventually vacate the Oval Office his brand of politics, loosely labelled as Trumpism, will continue to have an impact on US politics. Other than a hyperbolic slogan of making America great again, the substance to Trumpism revolves around Trump himself. Core Republicans must cringe at the way their party has been hijacked by Donald Trump to such an extent that in the 2020 election the GOP platform was simply to re-elect Trump.

The impact of Trump has a significance for Americans, both who support him and those who oppose him, in a more deeper sense than we realise. His racist bias, his persona of demeaning those who oppose him and seeking a personal loyalty add to what we already knew Trump to be, a self centred businessman who had a propensity to say the unsayable and walk over anybody to attain his goals. When, in 2015, he burst in the political scene few believed he had any chance. Then Trump started with attacking Mexicans, Muslims, and the immigration policies which initially were seen as attention seeking gimmicks. Credit to Trump he knew what he was doing; all he needed was the media to pick up his comment on prime time. He way saying things that a progressively disfranchised white non college educated working class felt but never said. He blamed China for their job losses, and the climate change policies for the contraction of work in the heartland of America. It did not matter if it was true or not but here was a man who spoke what they wanted to hear and for full measure Trump embraced the evangelical Christians to drive the pint home that he was their chosen saviour.

The very media that Trump labels as fake were the ones to promote his rise for them to only realise that monster had been let out of the cage. The racist bias of Trumps message was not an accidental slip, it was meant to create a base amongst the white supremacists who mostly came from his base of non college educated whites. Trump was unconventional in presidency because this language of tweeting and three minute attention spam is what suited him. Silently however he did what the stalwarts of the Republican Party could not do, namely, he created a base of die hard supporters. However, these are not supporters of the GOP but his own cadre if supporters. 

Looking ahead Trump out of the White House does not necessarily mean that he will fade into presidential retirement and has vaguely hinted at a run for the president in 2024. What we do know is that Trump is unpredictable and while he may be sending out feelers he is energised by his base who in turn feed off his rhetoric in equal measure. The role and place that Donald Trump will have in America’s political scene depends on many factors and the possible outcomes are quite intriguing and complex.

Once out of power Trumps hold of the Republican Party will be tested and some segments of the party may work to distance themselves from him. In contrast Trump, backed by his energised base, may continue to wield influence on the direction of the party and also work to position himself as the candidate for 2024. Senior senators like Lindsay Graham and Mitch McConnell are aware of Trumps hold on his base which could account for 20% of the Republican vote bank of 2020. Trump for his part will continue to try and command the attention of the public whether through his own media company or continuing his social media presence, even if the larger American audience pays attention or not. In that sense Trump will perhaps be a disruptive force for the Republicans who earnestly feel that in the last five years he has steered the party into a swamp where it lacks political substance and its infrastructure demolished in the face of Trumps nepotism and promotion of sycophants.

There is a more real prospect of Donald Trump slipping into the muddy waters of legal cases, some of which could be criminal in nature, and his erosion of power could result in a massive push back from die hard Republicans who balk at Trumpism and its impact on American political conscious.  It is most likely that Mr Trump will face a mounting financial crisis, legal cases and this would effect his ability to position his political destiny. Some have suggested that if spurned by the Republican Party he may consider creating his own political party. While this may be an option Trump would prefer the reality has that given his financial issues he may not have the resources for such a venture.

As the Trump days at the White House come to a close one has to wonder what Trumpism really means. His base would simply say Making America Great Again, which really means nothing more than a slogan.  To these die hard supporters he spoke for them, even of he ignored their well being and at the fringes he flirted with white supremacists hugging them into a form of political acceptance they never witnessed before. The vagueness of Trumps political positions on issues of race, women and white supremacy have always left him wiggle room to avoid the direct questions. His genius has been that he can make the odd comment that his is not a fascist or racist and almost in the same breath call the white supremacists very fine people. Being questioned by enlightened journalists or the elitist middle class about his misogynist and racist remarks does not bother him because he knows his base embraces his rhetoric. As he once said they would forgive him if he shot someone in Times Square, and forgive him they have; for his sexist remarks about women, for his racism against Mexicans and Muslims and his calls to lock up those who oppose him. This is the base that will not change its support for him and any intelligent expose on Trumps failures is labelled fake news. 

The challenge will be if Trumpism will survive and prosper after Trump? The simple answer it depends on the fate of Trump as a man. While he would like to hold on to the influence on the party the reality of facing debt repayments and legal actions we may have a very angry man melting into oblivion. Should he weather these challenges then perhaps we have to accept that Trumpism will continue to have  an influence on the American politics. The question is whether this will be of major consequence or not?

As a closing note viewing all this drama from abroad one wonders if Americans, especially those in his base will ever realise the lasting damage one man has done to the political fabric of the country. How could rudeness, the lack of decorum and decency be celebrated much less accepted from the office of the President of the United States will continue to haunt people who have been accustomed to much better. While his MAGA crowd will see Trump with admiration few outside that circle would disagree that it was a historic low for the Oval Office.

US Election possible aftermath.

 In two weeks the fate of America’s democracy and the shape of its society will be decided. To say these are troubling times is an understatement and that the complexion of society is not only shaped now but a continuation of trends we have seen since 2016. Polarisation is to be expected in political societies but never has it been laced with hate, anger, disinformation and ethnic tensions as we see now. As much as this is a battle for votes and swing states, more importantly, it is the battle for the mind of Americans.

The challenges that will emerge from election result can be daunting and for America’s sake one hopes these challenges are minimal. It might be helpful to explore the outcomes and their consequences:

A Trump Victory.

Notwithstanding the polls, where a Trump defeat seems on the cards, Trump could spring a surprise like 2016, and win enough swing states to be re-elected. While this will mean a continuation of the way we have sen things in the past four years, a re-elected Trump will be vicious in his attacks on his detractors. He will take firmer control of the Republican Party moulding it closer to how he wants it to be, even pushing his relatives to secure their political future. 

In the event a Trump victory is accompanied with a loss of the Senate then tensions between Congress and  the White House will reach a crescendo. It is more likely that his extremist right wing supporters, including the militias, might well intimidate his detractors in the Senate. These groups may also see a Trump victory as a license to impose their own style of vigilante justice. 

In a more broader level, a Trump victory will harden the lines of division within American society and result in further polarisation the cost of which will be borne by the average American on the street. Observe social media and you will see a form of anger and hate has crept into US political society that with every tweet, every angry profanity inflicts a wound on the social fibre that will be harder to heal. Will a Trump victory heal these wounds? Will his MAGA supporters be magnanimous in victory? Will race relations improve? 

A Biden Victory.

A Biden victory may well be seen as a return to normalcy, especially if accompanied with a Democrat party hold over the Senate. However, over the past two months Trump has been setting the stage for disputing any election result that does not grant him victory. There is a suggestion that a landslide victory for Biden is the only way for Trump to peacefully concede the election, however this could well be wishful thinking. 

If it is a close election then Trump will resort to the courts much like the Bush versus Gore election. Trumps hope remains that a Supreme Court with three of his appointees, all of whom were involved in the Bush-Gore case, could tilt the decision in his favour. However, this cannot be a forgone conclusion as judges cannot blatantly lean to a political agenda and judges have voted against what is expected often. 

If we see a Biden landslide we may see Trump conceding, let’s say a 30% chance, but be assured he will still go to the courts. It is in his nature to litigate and will hope his base, many of whom are white supremacists, will agitate enough to make it more difficult for his successor. In this scenario his comment to the militias to “standby” assumes particular significance. A small curtain raiser was that two weeks after his standby comment a plot to kidnap a Democrat Governor was unearthed and linked to a white militia group. 

We know Trump will not be a gracious loser and a nightmare scenario could well be him refusing to leave office and claim the whole election was fraudulent. It is not clear what mechanism exists to then force him to leave office as this has never been tested before. Yet there is confidence that sense might prevail and enough influence brought to bear on him to accept an overwhelming defeat. One cannot rule out that he may bargain a pardon in return for leaving office.

These are testing times for Americans and one can appreciate the emotion and passion we see. As painful as the anger and lack of respect for different political views exists one can only hope decency and the need to heal will prevail.

Trump and the virus

 It was almost as if God looked at Donald Trumps arrogance and indifference to 200,000 plus Americans having died from the virus that Trump said would go away and then handed it to him. Indeed it is an irony that the COVID 19 virus should infect the very man who made light of this deadly disease while privately admitting it was deadly. Everything that Donald Trump has said about this virus has come back to haunt him. Was a lesson learned in this awful episode?

Perhaps not. The systemic disinformation and mocking of people who wore masks, the most recent during the Presidential debate, all have been  a hallmark of this President who knows he could have done better. Better in planning, better in informing the people and most importantly putting together a credible action plan, based on scientific advice, to minimise the effects of this deadly virus. The reality is that Trump saw the virus as to what effect it would have on his re-election and to him listening to his scientists would have meant widespread lockdowns and their knock down effect on the economy. 

Prior to the COVID 19 pandemic Trumps campaign pitch would have been the performance of the economy, the stock market gains and his trade deals. The pandemic threatened that storyline and he had essentially two choices; think of America first by opting for a lockdown and minimising its impact or to downplay the crisis and hope it will go away. Had he chosen the route he didn’t take he could have actually boosted his chances for re-election even though his spin on the economy would have been diluted but then he could have pointed to the way every single country has had a severe economic impact. He could have shown he has put Americans first, implemented a strategy to keep them safe, invoked emergency powers to implement what scientists were telling him and what other countries have shown works. Without a doubt, even with say 75,000 deaths, which would have been in line with what other countries experienced relative to their population, his stature as a leader would have been enhanced.

Instead he chose the path to mislead, lie, and even deliberately spread disinformation on not only the pandemic but also as to the exact status of what his administration was doing to combat it. From touting untested drugs as a cure for the virus to even suggesting flippantly that bleach might work if injected into patients Trump showed incompetence that is not expected from the office he occupies. His grasp in the crisis was so weak that in July he suggested that they estimated 65,000 people would die from the virus, to then be faced with over 100,000 dead by the month end. He recently claimed if he had not done what he did 2 million Americans would have died! Why did he not reveal the modelling upon which any of his estimates were based, including his earliest remarks that by Easter the pandemic will be gone.

The reality is that everyone, from scientists to governments who have tackled this virus have had to learn their way through the evolution of the virus, but they have relied on good scientific practises and logic and lessons learned from previous pandemics. The Obama administration had, from its experiences with SARS and the Ebola viruses, developed a contingency plan and a playbook which Trump promptly threw out, perhaps because it had Obama’s signature on it. With nothing to replace that plan Trump thought he can outsmart this virus by talking things down and hoodwinking his way. The results are a matter of record and an abysmal testimony to the failure of leadership. What has been more difficult to digest has been the lack of transparency and a deliberate attempt to conceal the gravity of the pandemic. So much so some have termed Trumps actions as “homicidal negligence”.

After contracting the dreaded COVID 19 virus the lack of transparency continues. How did President Trump contract the virus? Clearly it was not Hope Hicks, so when did he show symptoms? Has contact tracing been done to establish all the people who could have been exposed to the virus? Have more than one test been done to ensure that some people cleared as negative are still not carrying the virus? What is the exact state of the symptoms shown by the President? As we know after a temporary improvement most COVID patients a week or so later deteriorate, sometimes with fatal consequences. Therefore the pertinent question to ask is what are the short term and long term prognosis of the Presidents condition?

Sadly for a president who has lied most of the past four years it is difficult to separate the facts from fiction. Showing him sign papers was designed to show he is in control but then signing blank pages exhibits the continued attempts by him and his cohorts to deal with his condition through smoke and mirrors, much like the whole pandemic has been dealt with. Someone has to tell Mr Trump that having lost the chance to have handled the pandemic as a true leader he should try and preserve what little credibility he might have by being straight and honest with people.

First US Presidential debate:A Review

 If one was seeking a winner of Tuesday’s Presidential debate all one witnessed was political suicide of decorum, dignity and respect for a democratic tradition that was designed to give substance to process of electoral choice. Instead of a statesmanlike debate one saw two men in their seventies bicker, abuse and insult each other in manner that even ten year olds would not do in the school yard. Each side will claim victory when in reality both should shamefully reflect upon how low the stature of candidates for the highest political office has sunk to. 

That aside the performance of each candidate needs to be reviewed. 

It was clear that President Trump came out really hot with the intent to not only control the rostrum and tempo of the debate but to provoke Joe Biden into losing his temper and balance. The moderator, Chris Wallace, at times struggled to control the floor, largely on account of Trumps interruptions, and could have been better served if the format would have been more like a college debate; each side two minutes per issue and then two minutes each for a rebuttal with microphones turned off when  it was not a candidates time to speak.

The review of this nasty and disgraceful debate would nevertheless be essential as some interesting statements and messages came across:

Trump:

High points : attacking Biden of his lack of bringing the change he promises now when through his 47 years in politics and 8 years as Vice President failing to implement the change. 

Missed arguments: Biden seemed hesitant to discuss his economic plan and Trump should have pushed him on that. 

Low points: attacking Biden’s family, failure to condemn white supremacists, (instead telling them to stand by) and failure to state that he would accept the election result.

Biden:

High points: not to get lose his temper over the family attack, not to retaliate against Trumps family, bringing some humanism about his sons addiction, clearly stating he would accept the election result.

Missed arguments: pressed harder on Trumps handling of the pandemic, pressed on Trumps refusal to confront Russia.

Low points: telling Trump to ‘shut up’.

Interestingly the whole debate was fact checked with Trump having a 80% false rating and Biden 20% false. Sadly this election is not going to be about facts it’s about emotions. 

The chilling messages one reads into this debate are worrying for then tradition of US democracy. It is clear that this election may well be decided in courts especially if it’s a close election. If there is an overwhelming Biden victory this may well be avoided but who knows what unfolds in the next 35 days. In some respects we must be braced for politically motivated street violence especially if Trump loses the election and hence the ‘stand down and stand by’ remark has a significance one should not brush aside.

For an independent observer, especially from abroad, the debate was a sad reflection on where the US political tradition has come to, and one cannot get to terms with the consequences of what we are seeing unfold. While it’s an exhaustive subject on its own it would seem America might well be irrevocably divided and in a decade or so a unifying charismatic leader might emerge. 

Scorecard for USA on COVID-19

 Statistics in themselves do not lie, our interpretations of the numbers may vary and create a bias but the raw data is what it is; facts. As of September 25th a tally of data from 213 countries reveals the following comparisons for the United States:

• With 207,000 deaths USA ranks highest in deaths and 21% of all deaths world wide.
• 626 deaths per million ranks 10th highest in the world. ( San Marino is first and so in Andorra is the top ten, excluding them for their small populations USA ranks 8th).
• The world average of deaths per 1 million is 128 per million.
• In testing coverage USA ranks 20th with 30% of the population tested. 
• Total cases USA ranks the highest 7.2 million cases representing 22% of all cases in the world.
• With 4.4 million recovered USA ranks second in the world. 
• In active cases USA ranks the highest with 2.54 million. 
• With 14,156 currently critically infected by the virus USA ranks the highest, implying these people will sadly be added to the death list. 
• Canada, USA’s neighbour has had 245 death per million and total deaths there are 9,249.

President Trump has often said that his administration has done a great job and are leading the world in fighting Covid-19. The statistical evidence clearly establishes that the US is far from leading the fight against the virus largely because of the lack of policy and cogent action against the pandemic. President Trump has ridiculed the wearing of masks, encourage political rallies with no social distancing. In April he said they had predicted total deaths in USA would be 60,000! Two weeks later that number was exceeded. 

The concoction of misleading information, even suggesting unproven cures and all the time ignoring scientific advice when in private he knew this was the worlds deadliest pandemic. In effect his lack of policy and actions contrary to his duty to protect the American people can only lead one to call this the Trump Virus. Even today experts point to shortages in sanitizers, PPE equipment and other support equipment putting the lives of patients and the caregivers at risk. 

There is evidence that the virus may well be mutating and while infecting more people it’s fatality rate seems to be less in the recent weeks. However this does not mean that the virus will go away as President Trump has been often heard to say. The danger of the virus remains that it continues to spread through asymptomatic carriers therefor suggesting that a strategy of prevention ( masks and social distancing), mass testing, contact tracing and isolation are the key pillars upon which any plan to contain the virus rest.  

On all these criterion President Trump has failed, so much so he extolled that testing should be slowed down, and recently asked CDC to only test people with symptoms of the virus thus ignoring the simple fact that this virus spreads primarily through asymptomatic carriers! What is even more sad is that had measured been taken in a timely and effective manner the death toll in the United States would have perhaps been one third of deaths would occurred from the present level. Instead President Trump says had he not done what he did the death toll would have been in the millions, whitewashing that all he did actually created the impact of the Trump Virus to be worse than it could have. 

Countries with less resources, weaker health care facilities and certainly less money have done a remarkable job. This was because there was leadership on the issue and the leadership of these countries listened to the scientists and took the bitter pill of lockdowns and their economic impact. With out a doubt it is obvious that USA’s COVID-19 score card would have been much better had it been for better leadership. There can be no doubt that Donald Trumps lack of leadership and his push back against sensible measures to tackle the Covid-19 virus was and is tantamount to homicidal negligence.

A Letter from D J Trump

 My dear ‘Lucifer’,

You may wonder why I am calling you Lucifer, it’s not that I have forgotten your name it’s just that I don’t want those ANTIFA hooligans to troll you when they learn you have been by confidante for over three decades. Your amazing guidance has brought me to be the greatest President the United States has ever had, a position that has added to my wealth and stature and those of my children. Imagine the value of my brand name after I leave the White House, that’s if I ever leave the house that I have come to love just as much as Mara Lago. 

As you know I do not read but I took your advice of the principal of divide and rule which you said is how a small island called Great Britain became great in colonising more than half the world. You were spot on to embrace the forgotten voice of the White Supremacists, they are at the core of my base and just like me do not read much and unlike me did not have the money to fix their school grades. Their attention span is four words and “Make America Great Again“  is enough for them to get into their Pick up trucks or onto their motorbikes and turn up where I want them. Knowing the art of the deal I know I can sell them back their own hard earned pickups by simply saying its to make America great again.

You were right about going after all the recent immigrants, the Latinos, the Muslims because my base doesn’t know that they all are the sons and daughters of immigrants, every single one of them. You were right to say they will not research their ancestry, many don’t know where the nearest library is, well neither do I but then that’s not the point I am the greatest POTUS ever, I mean ever! Thanks for reminding me to go soft of the Latinos this election as we need Florida more than ever, and sure I am considering my Supreme Court nominee to replace RBG (sorry of the initials I cannot spell her surname), to be a Latino woman. 

I am a bit disturbed about this book by this Bob fellow, I know you told me not to talk to him but come on Lucifer this Bob fellow is the dean of FAKE news and if I, the best negotiator ever to be President, could disarm him then the fake news crowd of Coumo, Don Lemon, Wolf (cannot spell his surname) etc would all come crumbling down. I think this Bob is a poor man and doesn’t own any stocks because I kept telling him about the stock market and he did not even respond. As you once said “no point talking about a rib eye steak to a guy who only eats hot dogs”. The problem is he has these tapes, not like the loser Nixon’s tapes, with my voice on them. Should I deny I ever spoke to him? I know my MAGA crowd will believe me. You told me to say it’s a boring book, which I did and the MAGA suckers cheered, you think I should read it? 

This China flu thing seems to cause some stink on me, but only time to time. Yes I knew it was deadly and may be I should have said in April that about 50,000 people will die instead of saying it will go away and it’s under control, I called you back then but your phone was disconnected, my office forgot to pay the bill. Can I tell the people that this is God’s wrath on the Americans who are not true MAGA and Trump supporters? I can make up some numbers to show only Trump haters are dying. After all I tell about ten lies a day and these idiots are so busy fact checking me they will never catch up.

Joking aside, Lucifer you are right that telling them that 200,000 dead is better than 500,000 dead! So you are right I have done a great job in fighting the China flu. I know this Dr Fauci fellow is believed more than me but you were wise to suggest to get a mountain of man of science to neutralise Fauci; so I got Dr Atlas, Kellyann Conway told me there are the Atlas Mountains somewhere in Africa or Asia. (Sending Don Jr there to see if we can build a Trump property on the Atlas Mountains). This Atlas fellow is so great he just parrots whatever I say but with a degree the geeks will believe him rather than me. That way we get the swing votes, right?

Thanks for sending me the additional oath you want all people who serve me to make. I agree these people like the rat Cohen, and the coward Mattis, should never emerge again. I have modified the oath that each person working for me shall make. Let me know what you think:

“I ........... swear by God this holy oath that I shall render unconditional obedience and loyalty forever, to the leader of the American Republic and the American people, Donald J Trump, the greatest President of USA and it’s supreme leader. This oath is binding on me for life and even if, God forbid, Donald J Trump is no more the US President. This holy oath is bound to me till my death”.

Just to let you know I spoke to my good friend Kim in North Korea and Comrade Putin and both confirmed their inner circle has a similar oath they have to swear. So if it’s good for them it’s good for America, don’t you agree?

Talking of Putin, you have to come up with something that can make this Russia connection disappear, just as I am making the China flu disappear. I will take on board your last advice to criticise Putin a few times and to do it in gentle terms. I agree with that strategy as it will shut up the fake news media but I will make sure I will call my good friend Putin before to warn him it’s just an election ploy. Given what my FBI guys are saying about Russian interference (yet again), I am sure Putin will understand my little polite needle jabs at him. 

On a closing note I have told my office to make sure your phone bill is always paid so I can reach you anytime I want. I know at times it’s 3 AM but then I am also the most hard working president the United States has ever had. Oh I almost forgot, please reach out to Ms G Maxwell, she is a very fine person and needs some advice on this Epstein thing. Hell, he is dead why should this poor woman suffer for his pleasures? As I said in public I wish her well.

Take care and check your post box, Don Jr should have sent you some presents. Hope you like the POTUS bedroom slippers.

Signed 

DJT

(This is a satirical piece and should be read only in that context)

 

America’s Choice

 

In less than two months Americans will make a choice, a choice that comes at perhaps the most defining moment in US political history. The effects of the changes to the political landscape from four years ago do not only linger on but create deep schisms in the US political psyche. These schisms do not traverse the  lines of political agenda or policies but are schisms of division that bear horrible consequences for the future direction of American society. The choice is one of measuring character, values, decency and honesty, all of which define the moral compass not only of the candidates but of Americans by and large. 

The character flaws of the incumbent President run deep and are well talked about, and as Election Day nears more tell all stories spew out into the public domain, from his closet former advisors to his family. As if the thousands of recorded lies of Donald Trump needed any more proof these new narratives while reaffirming his lack of decency, truth and moral values perhaps will not dent the 30 odd percent of his base  supporters. Trump has sold to them large doses of fear and hyperbole which he knows is not entirely true but it is what they have wanted to hear. 

Four years ago in electing Trump a marginalised blue white collar workers and a largely mid western white population signalled that they believed the USA was being flooded with immigrants and that their jobs were shipped aboard. Trump promised a wall which Mexico would pay for, he would engage China in a trade war, he would roll back medical care for all and the list goes on. Today his message of fear is that the protests over the police having killed unarmed black men and women are violent and this threatens white suburbia. The fact that 93% of the protests have been peaceful is not relevant to his base, to them Trump as president has said that these protests are led by thugs and looters is enough proof.

On the flip side the Democratic Party has its own unique set of challenges. After the unifying and effective leadership of Barrack Obama the party  four years ago became the vestige if the Clintons. With Bernie Sanders presenting a too radical alternative to the party Hilary Clinton was propelled to take on Trump. Bad political strategy and an over whelming belief in the polls caused crucial swing states to go to the Trump camp. It just became obvious that while in polls people preferred Clinton the party could not get that support to come to the polls on Election Day. The challenge in this election is if the Biden-Harris ticket can muster the Democratic Party vote bank to the pols and more importantly swing the marginalised voters back to their fold.

While President Trumps base has largely remained intact and it has ignored his failures and character flaws it assures him between 30 to 38% of the electorates support. The Biden camp would seem to have an edge on the popular vote but for them the crucial issue will be if they have enough of a lead in the swing states, the very states that Trump edged into his side in 2016. Back in that election it is estimated that Trumps margin was so thin in these swing states that the total number of voters who helped him clinch the election could have fitted into on football pitch.

Over the next fifty odd days Trumps strategy will be to kindle the fires of fear, extolling his divisive pitch that a Biden victory will mean an end to white suburbia. His attacks on Biden will echo more along the lines that only Trump is the patriot and good for America, a rally call that appeals to his base. He will deflect critics of his handling of the COVID-19 pandemic by continuing to lie that under his watch America handled the crisis better than any country. This is a claim that goes against the facts and with 190,000 Americans having perished to the virus Trump will ignore this issue.

Biden must not make the mistakes that Hilary Clinton made by ignoring the swing states during the campaign trail. He must also continue to hit Trump on his weakest points; the pandemic handling by Trump. There is a plethora of statements in Trumps own words that highlight his bungling of the crisis and then all the misstatements and outright lies that came from the President. Some have suggested that President Trump exhibited “homicidal negligence” in the manner he handled the COVID-19 crisis. 

Nothing irks Trump more than the Russian issue and his soft stance towards Putin. While it was established through the Mueller investigation that out of the ordinary links existed between key Trump confidants and the Russians, with some of them going to jail, Trump anchors his defence on the fact that direct collision between his campaign and the Russians was not established to the extent of no shadow of doubt. Irrespective of that investigation to any omniscient observer it is clear that Trump holds back his criticism of Putin, most recently over allegations that the Russians offered bounties in Afghanistan to those who killed US and NATO troops. This is Trumps Achilles heel and the Biden camp should continue to hammer away at it.

This election for America poses the choice of decency over crudeness, unity over divisiveness, truth over lies, multiracial empathy over racism and most of all good governance over chaos in the White House. The Biden-Harris ticket is clearly the choice over the Trump-Pence camp who after four years have failed in every respect by dividing America, ignoring the threats of the pandemic leaving 190,000 dead and creation of a swamp of nepotism and sycophancy in the government like never before. 

The prospect of a Trump victory cannot be ruled out, which might well be because of Biden’s electoral strategy failures, a Trump loss could well be a major challenge for Americans. He will not concede a loss easily, mail 8n ballots will become and issue and perhaps the courts will have to intervene. More dangerously the white supremacist supporters of Trump will perhaps take to the streets and civil disobedience backed by guns cannot be ruled out. 

If Trump does win the best thing for the US would be that the Republicans lose control on the Senate and with the House controlled by the Democrats there could be some checks and balances restored to a rouge President. This is a highly likely scenario and something that should be watched. However, a victorious Trump will edge to the dictatorial style he loves and we may see him more unhinged. That can only be avoided if people who find it repulsive the way Trump has thickened the swamp he promised to clear they should come out and vote in large numbers. This is America’s most defining election become a part of it.

Trump Unbundled

 People deserve the leaders they choose. This is all the more valid for democracies where the assumption is that the electorate is educated and politically astute. Four years ago as Donald Trump created a divisive agenda and embellished a campaign with lies and racist slant one felt the United States of America was getting what it deserved. Even though one knew Trump had hijacked the Republican Party there was an inner voice that hoped he could step in as the 45th President and change by embracing the statesmen like qualities that the Oval Office thrusts upon its incumbents.

Four years later and the circus of the US election is unfolding again. It is obvious that there is a hard core of Trump supporters who continue to embrace President Trump believing in the hyperbole he has been spinning. It is unlikely that die hard core of his base will embrace the truth of Trumps failures as a man and as a President even when faced with his lack of action on the COVID 19 pandemic that has left close to 180,00 Americans dead. The fact he has embraced white supremacists, ridiculed minorities and shunned responsibility for the failures of his office do not matter to them. 

In 2016 the media played into Trumps strategy by giving him more air time each time he made unspeakable remarks and in a sense gave a platform for his views rather than ignoring him. Now the challenge is to unbundle this President even though Trump has a state machinery to defend the agenda and his position. However, one must admit that Trump’s success in 2016 was also on account of the failures of the Hilary Clinton campaign who ignored the states they were traditionally strong in and the Democrats just could not mobilise the voter base who could have titled the balance in their favour.

The challenge will be how to take an electorate who are increasingly apathetic towards the 2020 election to go out an vote? The choice is Trumps dramatic but untrue characterisations versus the Biden camps search of a meaningful message. Trumps assurance is his base, some of whom may have wavered but the question remains if he has marshalled in enough to replace those he lost. Yet it is clear his base also envisions cannot get him elected. In 2016 there was a large blue collar work force who were disgruntled with Hilary Clinton strongly enough to swing to the Trump camp. Biden and his team have to focus on these key segments in addition to the large number of people who did not vote in 2016.

To unbundle Trump is more a matter of focus on his content of his failures rather than a generic denunciation of the man. As we saw in 2016 some of the worst gaffes and revelations (the Hollywood tape, Stormy Daniels etc) did not faze him or his base. Unlike the previous election this time his character flaws can be pitched against his policy failures and this should be the focus of any challenge to Donald Trump.

His Presidency has left a litany of lies, and behavioural flaws most if not all of which have effected policy.  The unbundling of Trump is therefore a unique journey into the mind of a man who can only evoke two emotions; you can either love him or hate him, but ignoring him is no more possible.

Trumpism is to embrace the lies.

There is a plethora lies that can be attributed to Donald Trump, to he point he is labelled as a serial liar. Through this summer he has averaged at over 250 lies a month! What is amazing is that Trump continues to utter his lies over and over based on the dictum that if you utter a lie often enough people will believe it to be the truth. This certainly was the case with his accusation that President Obama was not born in the United States, which some of his followers still believe to be the truth. 

When faced with the gravest threats to US society in the shape of the COVID-19 pandemic Trump continued to lie about the gravity of the crisis and the measures he was taking. Sadly as US citizens died each day at an alarming rate President Trump claimed US was a leading example of fighting the pandemic, so much so that claiming the effects of the virus in the US were minor. At one point he was touting untested remedies for the COVID-19 and consistently denying there was a crisis. It was a clear case of the liar believing his version of reality and anyone who did not buy into that reality was enemy.

Politicians, including Presidents, are prone to stretch the truth, but Donald Trump does not bend the truth he simply creates his own version of the truth through a web of lies. One wonders when his wife, Melania, at the RNC meeting stated that people expect the President to tell the truth was it a tongue in cheek reference to her own husband.

Disavowing his former allies.

In Trumps White House it’s been normal to a cavalcade of officials be appointed and then to exit, some within a few weeks. The exits were either because they fell out with Trump and his inner circle or resigned in the face of criminal investigations. Upon their appointment Donald Trump has espoused lavish praise on the appointees calling them ‘very good’ people and upon their exit calling them losers. In cases where his former associates have been criminally charged Trump has been quick to state that he only knew them fleetingly and distanced himself from them. The most glaring fallout was with Steve Bannon, former chief strategist for Trumps election bit and then and advisor. During the early years of Trumps Presidency Bannon was a permanent fixture at the Oval Office and now discarded and facing a criminal charge Trump can only say that Bannon worked for his administration but he did not know him that well.

It would seem that Trump has no sense of loyalty to the people who have  served his cause. They are as good as their total subservience and submission to Trumps whims is the only barometer of acceptance by the President. Loyalty to Mr. Trump is a one way street and explains why sycophancy is the order of the day and a necessary qualification to work with Mr. Trump. This implies that the President will not necessarily get the best advice since there is a propensity on his part to surround himself with yes men. 

Ego before nation.

 Most people who have known Donald Trump attest to his over grown ego. He does not want to be ignored and resents attention to anyone but himself. This ego also shapes the self image that Trump carries to the extent that he considers himself smarter than anyone else, brighter than the best scientists, and considers his art of the deal implies he can negotiate with anyone, including dictators in North Korea or the NATO leaders. Having an over sized ego is one thing but in Trumps case he holds a vindictive nature against people who may be considered better than him. This explains his benign hatred for President Obama and everything the previous administration achieved. 

The result of this egoistic trait has meant that valuable time and resources have been wasted on proving he can deal with North Korea, when the lack of results shows how his ego cannot be out before the national interest. Trumps position on climate change, Immigration, healthcare and Russia show how one mans ego has been the focal point of a policy that he cannot rationalise. 

Trumps Achilles heel.

In 2016 Trump came under pressure to release his tax returns to which he declared if he won the election he would do so. Four years later not only have the tax filings not been released he and his lawyers have Ben fighting the courts which have ordered their release. What is it that Trump does not want to be disclosed?

Here is a theory, and mind you only a theory. Let’s go back to 2014 and Trump is flirting with the idea of entering the Presidential race. It was no secret amongst top banks that Trump was a risky client and since his earlier bankruptcies top western banks avoided lending to the Trump group. The exception was Duetsche Bank who at one point had an exposure of $2 billion to Trump companies. In addition there were a number of syndicated loans on projects where Trump was a significant minority shareholder in a project.  For instance the developer of 1290 Avenue of America, in which Trump owns 30% equity borrowed from a consortium of banks almost $1billion of which $ 211 m was provided by Bank of China. The loan was signed in November 2012. Around the time of the election in 2016 Bank of China denied it had leant the money however in 2017 its name appeared on listed of banks holding a mortgage on the said development. If it was an arms length transaction why would the bank deny it ever loaned the money? 

Now here is the theory and at the outset one must state that it is entirely conjecture. Prior to the election banks lending to Trump got nervous that a risky client would be impossible to handle if he became President. Some of these banks called in their loans. It is possible that some of these loans were bought by Russian banks and this may explain why Trump has been soft of Mr Putin and Russia. This would explain why the battle for the tax filings is so important as it would reveal the trail of the financial dealings. 

Either way whether true or not it does make an interesting plot for a financial thriller.

As the final run for the election of the next president heats up Americans have to make a moral choice not an emotional choice. One can excuse any number of Trumps failures and indiscretions but forgiving him for his failure to handle the COVID-19 pandemic is something one cannot do.  Jimmy Carter lost the election for the handling of US hostage crisis in Tehran, but today with thousands of Americans having died of the COVID-19 virus Trump not only survives but thrives on laying blame on others or flatly denying that he failed. If Trump is to be judged solely on his handling of the pandemic then he will lose the election. This is where the soul of America will be tested; is a second term for Trump worth more than 179,000 dead Americans?

Naya Pakistan in an age of tolerance!

The Naya Pakistan that Imran Khan has promised the people has been slow in unfolding itself. It has its stops and starts, distractions and stumbles but in little bits and pieces, some more significant than we realize, the vision of  Imran’s Pakistan has given us a few glimpses and some of them are disturbing to say the least. There is a consensus amongst most historians that General Zia Ul Haq did a great disservice to the modernization of Pakistan with his embrace of the ultra orthodox platform he not only shifted the pendulum of Pakistani society he provided a legitimacy to every one to claim they were the champions of Islam and their interpretation of how society was ordained to be correct. This new Zia doctrine permeated into institutions of the state to the extent that even the armed forces were affected. It reached a point where Zia’s views of military promotions were based not on the merit of the soldiers but on whether he considered you a devout Muslim.

 

Decades later today we are faced with a specter of change, which most of us who support Imran hoped, would be to move Pakistan forward as a tolerant modern state. However, we are faced with the prospect of a massive effort to rewrite our history, school books being examined to purge anything not consistent with a particular view of history, Turkish drama serials being promoted as if they speak of our, a Pakistan, history and then a constant appeasement of a ultra religious segment that refuses to embrace or accept the founder of Pakistan’s vision of a tolerant Pakistan. In fairness Qaid e Azam hosted mixed signals at times indicating that shariah law would be the law of the land and at others promoting a liberal secular Islam. 

There is little denying through recent history successive ruling administrations in Pakistan have been rudderless is defining a social and economic agenda where education and social reforms could shape a modern Pakistan. Since Zulfikar Ali Bhuttos government of the 1970’s failed in its socialist promise of ‘roti,kappra, makkan’ (food, clothing and housing) the disconnect between the political elite and their promises has been evident. Sadly for Pakistan Bhuttos government and then later his daughter, Benazir Bhuttos, first government, were the only moments where the ruling party held enough of a political majority to bring about meaningful change and both failed miserably.

These failures played into the hands of the mullah orthodoxy which was made all the more important during General Zia’s regime. Geopolitical pressures arising from the war in Afghanistan against the Soviet invasion meant that Zia’s government and the army became conduits to American support and funding of radical right wing militant groups to fight the Soviets. It was these very groups or their protege splinter groups that were to then turn on Pakistan and wreck havoc with terrorist attacks. 

Since the 1970’s a massive export of labourers and skilled professionals to the Gulf countries was encouraged with the view to benefit from home remittances from this work force. These very workers over the past five decades imported into Pakistan a mindset of societal change which has prompted an Arabization of Pakistani society. The dupatta was replaced by the abaya, the Urdu farewell of ‘Khuda Hafiz’ was replaced by ‘Allah Hafiz’, and many more social norms imported that had for centuries been alien to Pakistani society. Sadly these social imports did not emulate the elements of tolerance as seen in UAE and Bahrain where people of other faiths are given remarkable freedoms. 

Imran Khan has at times argued that the Muslims in Pakistan have an identity crisis. No they have never had an identity crisis they are being edged into a new identity which is divorced from the history of the land and it’s people. The history of the land encompasses a vast and diverse swath from the Indus Valley Civilization to the Vedic period, the invasion by the Greeks, the Mauyra empire, to the Ghazni and Ghauri period, the Afghan Lodi empire, the Mughal empire and finally the British empire till independence in 1947. This is the continuous history of Pakistan and projecting that Turkish or Arab history is our history plays into a narrative that is not true.

Imran Khan may be partially right about Pakistanis having an identity crisis. Many of our brethren take pains to point out that their family tress is embedded in the land of the Arabs. This is far from the truth as history tells us successive invasions from the north created a melting pot in India yet the original settlers of the land embraced the customs of successive invaders and at times the religion too. Many of our customs still carry the traces of this historical heritage, we simply cannot just redefine ourselves in to a new mould.

Tinkering with the education system will have profound consequences on Pakistani society and it’s place on the world stage. Most certainly Islamic studies should be a part of the syllabus but not at the expense of science and history. Yes there is an elite  educational system, a product of which was Imran also, which in 1950’s was divorced for the people, but in the past five decades it has tried to remain elitist but also imbibed a broader more egalitarian format. Countries have have become competitive on the world stage, Korea, Japan, India and many others have modernised their educational system. We in Pakistan can do the same so long as we understand that a modern educational system does not mean you are westernising society.

A Naya Pakistan should be proud of it’s history not one that tries to rewrite it. Most of all it has to be a tolerant Pakistan where minorities are not only protected but encouraged to be equal partners in the progress of the country. When it announced that a Hindu temple was to be built in the capital I felt this was a positive development only to learn a few weeks later the back stepping started. This I suspect is from the pressure of the ultra conservative segment of society. Why cannot we learn from other countries that have been tolerant to other faiths. If Muslims in USA or UK can build a mosque then why not a temple for Hindus in Pakistan?

The narrative of the PTI government has to change. It has to speak of a modern Pakistan, a tolerant Pakistan and a progressive Pakistan. Yes Islam is our state religion but we do not need it to be forced onto every aspect of our lives. Strangely enough amongst the Islamic groups there is little consensus of which sect is the right way and if Islam in Pakistan is under threat it is from the sectarian schisms of the mullahs themselves. I have lived 40 years in a Muslim country were people are deeply religious and not once have I been asked if I am a Shia or a Sunni. As I have undergone my own personal journey to Islam in the past half decade I have been helped by many here towards a tolerant Islam and it perhaps explains why the country has progressed. 

There is a lot to learn about tolerance and we must acknowledge that we as Pakistani Muslims have forgotten what it means. To see a Hindu journalist once in a mosque meditating while his host, a sheikh prayed at Maghreb time to me was the epitome of tolerance and acceptance. I know in Pakistani the mullahs would say that the mosque is now unclean etc etc. Bricks and cement do not become unclean by well meaning acts of faith, if anything it creates an acceptance that countries like Pakistan could well learn from.

 

 

COVID 19 and USA

One of the dictums of life is that you have to acknowledge a problem before you can muster the resources and means to fix the problem. USA's response to the COVID 19 pandemic is a case study of the denial by it its leadership to admit to the problem. President Trump, stubbornly and stupidly, has denied to acknowledge the magnitude of the pandemic and instead of statesman like leadership he has opted to politicize the pandemic to the point of ridiculousness. 

The talk from Trump is that the "US is leading the world in fighting the pandemic"; a bizarre statement considering that daily cases are rising, the death toll is the highest, albeit a bit slower, and most experts, including his appointees, confirm there has been no flattening of the curve of infections. The US has tested about 11.7% of its population of 220 million people, which is still lower than UAE (35.6%), Denmark(19.9%), UK (15.8%) and many more countries, even though above 11% is respectable provided other measures are in place.

What we have learned so far in the fight against COVID 19  is that social distancing, preventive measures like masks and sanitization are crucial building blocks in the preventing the spread of the virus. However testing is a pillar to the battle as it then allows one to identify the infected people, isolate them, determine their recent contacts and isolate them and thus restricted the rampant spread of the virus. We have also learned, in some cases the hard way that listening to the scientists is a vital ingredient to the battle against the virus. Political and social compulsions being put to the forefront of any plan to fight the pandemic is a recipe for disaster.

As governments the world over tackle the difficult question of when to ease the lockdowns and to what extent the concern always remains whether such easing will lead to a second wave of infections. While it is recognized that a prolonged lockdown can and will have serious economic and social implications the decision has to be made within the broad framework of how well has a country’s COVID 19 strategy worked. Lockdowns in themselves achieve little if other broader measures of social protection; masks and social distancing, and contact tracing are not implemented. In addition the purpose of contact tracing is precisely to indemnity people at risk and isolate them before they spread the virus any further.

Countries with broad and effective lockdowns backed by a cohesive COVID 19 strategy have shown success in this battle. In addition it has allowed them to move from wide lockdowns to smart lockdowns and side by side be effective in isolating people at risk through contact tracing. United States of America stands out as a country that has had the least effective strategy because political and social factors have over ridden what scientific sense has suggested. While other countries in large measure have seen the peak of the first wave of infections pass the US continues to see a surge in infections. The glaring lack of measures to contain social contact and implement measures that have worked in other countries continues to indicate that the worst is yet to come.

If the current rate of infections and the lack of a plan to combat COVID 19 remains in the US then it is highly likely that the first wave of infections will hit close to 8-10 million people with deaths exceeding 250,000 to 300,000. Indeed there is evidence that the virus has mutated and its effects may be less deadly but by the same measure this mutation has made the virus spread much faster.

President Trumps handling of the COVID 19 is an abysmal failure of leadership. While previous failures of the Trump Presidency were political and policy oriented, this one costs lives and at the current rate two and half times the number of Americans killed in the Vietnam war! Not having a policy or not supporting what the experts are saying is one thing, but here is a President who deliberately undermines the efforts of others and even has suggested that the virus will ‘simply go away’ one day.

The question remains if Americans will take President Trump to task for his failure to protect Americans in this pandemic? That will be perhaps decided at the elections in November.

                       

Kashmir and the Indo-China border dispute

As Indian and Chinese troops clashed along their disputed borders a jingoism emerged from New Delhi, at times reminding their audience that this is not 1962, when the Chinese army humiliated the Indian army. The fact remains that India has, under Modi's BJP government, stirred up border tensions not only with Pakistan, but Nepal and now China. The interesting element to the current escalation of border tensions with China is that Modi's government has managed to distract attention for the ongoing plight of the Kashmiri people in Indian Kashmir. 

 

Sino Indian border tensions are not new, and while the odd skirmish has taken place since the 1962 Indian humiliation, these have been more incidents rather than major military confrontations. What is different about the current tension is that ironically India’s abrogation of the special status of Indian Kashmir also changed the status of the Ladakh area that borders China. Beijing sees the change of status, from a geopolitical perspective, as India unilaterally asserting a resolution to their border issues with China. So long as the area was disputed between Indian, Pakistan and China, in varying claims over territories, China was willing to let the disputed status quo remain. However, India abrogating the special status of Kashmir and the adjoining areas presents a fait accompli that the Chinese may not be willing to accept.

 

Whether this border clash, that left a few dozen dead on each side, will broil over into a wider military confrontation is yet to be seen. Tensions are high and India must know its response scenario is limited to what they can do to the Chinese. Militarily the Chinese certainly have a upper edge and it is not certain if Indian appeals to Washington to pressure China to ease the tensions will work given that the Trump Administration does not have the same influence over Beijing as previous US administrations have had.

 

Prime Minister Modi has to walk the precipice with care. His recent statement that no Chinese troops entered India territory suggested that it might have been the Indian military that ventured unto the Chinese side thereby giving Beijing the moral high ground. In addition Modi has to understand that hard talking China does not work, he tried it with Pakistan and while to some extent the world may have given him an audience, in the case of China the influence and power of the Chinese far outweighs that of New Delhi.

 

However, in a more sinister manner, the whole issue of the border skirmish with China has taken attention away from the situation in Kashmir. The lockdown and the denial of movement and freedom of speech and assembly have now been in place for almost a year in Kashmir. Political leaders, while recently released have been muzzled and New Delhi is keen to move its settlement plans of changing the demographics of Indian Kashmir; much like Israel has done in the Palestinian lands. The world has been pretty much silent over all this and Modi has, to a major extent, got away with it.

 

For Indian Muslim Kashmiris the intent of the Indian government has been solely to redraw the historical realities of Kashmir and its people. In BJP eyes opening up to settlement of Kashmir by Indians, and mostly Hindus changes the demographics far enough to change the complexion of the Kashmir issue away from a Muslim populous seeking self determination to try and achieve Kashmiri integration into the Indian body politic based on a more balanced Hindu-Muslim demographic.

 

Alternatively PM Modi’s government can use the confrontation with China as a matter of national security and justify a larger presence of Indian troops in Kashmir and within that scenario enforce the demographic changes within Kashmir. If in the process India loses some territory to China as a result of a military conflict it will still be seen a small price to pay in comparison to enforcing New Delhi’s will in Kashmir.

 

While this is a gamble as in military conflicts outcomes are not always certain and China may just feel a wider occupation of the disputed area and its hinterlands is the best way to settle the score, Modi’s government cannot entirely de-escalate things on their own. China has been vocal is demanding a restoration of the special status of Kashmir (including Ladakh) and its clear that it sees root cause of the current tension as coming from New Delhi. Within India the hawks feel that a conflict with China may well not be as one sided as the Chinese would wish and point to the logistical challenge for China to mobilize at the Indian border.

 

All said and done the dispute is far from settled and it is likely that more skirmishes will occur. Its only a matter of time when one skirmish becomes more than just an incident. Until then one can only hope that better sense prevails in India and they step back from this new found nationalist jingoism and seek a quick and meaningful dialogue with China.

 

 

 

 

America Burning: The discomfort of racism!

There is always a distant distillation when sitting on a different continent and watching the painful burning of America. It creates a compelling reason to understand the pain that has caused this rioting and to better understand this label ‘racism’ which is at the root of the current upheaval.  The persuasive narrative is that this is a Black – White issue, it’s a racist event laden with the provocations and reactions that such emotionally charged and painful occasions bring. Yet sitting abroad one can flick the TV to some period drama series and not have to even hear the sirens or the gunshots on an American street. But then such escapes are not sustainable as the burning of America comes back to haunt you.

If you are white and do not subscribe to the white supremacist hatred for Black people, then you have two choices; sit on the sidelines and add the occasional voice to social media, or become active in supporting the moral right of the Black people. For someone like me, being brown, is a step closer to understand the pain of the Black man, but still being closer is not enough. One has to dig deeper into this malaise that plagues American society where the color of the skin creates hatred that demeans the life of the person with that color. In a sense the knee on George Floyds neck was symbolic of the knee that has been on the neck of Black people in America for decades. While slavery was abolished in 1865 it was only with the Civil Rights Act of 1964 that discrimination based on color sex or religion was officially banned. Yet, as numerous studies show, till 1980’s segregation along race was common in US schools and colleges.

In recent times, and to the present day, a policy of ‘redlining’ creates the de facto denial of equal opportunities to Black and other minorities in the USA. The practice makes mortgages, education and jobs more difficult for Black people to secure by simply raising the qualification criteria or the cost of the education and mortgages much higher. As systemic as those redlining measures are the current upheaval concerns the unlawful killing of a Black man by police officers and is the watershed of many such incidents in the past.

The issues concerning Black people and their treatment run deep into the core of American society, almost to the concealed psyche of the white people who have treated them badly. Yes it is true not all white people are there to kill Black people, and indeed the vast majority of white (and brown) Americans are appalled by the recent events.  Yes this also becomes that moment when we quote Malcolm X and Martin Luther King and seek to understand how this anger can lead to rioting and looting. How an American President can call the protesters ‘thugs’ and how we can simply ignore the weight of history that has caused this. One is often asked if one supports the protests, and after affirming one does, the next question is ‘do you support the looting and burning of shops?’

There is a logical unequivocal answer that one cannot support the looting? However, supporting and understanding it are two different things. I can understand why it happened without agreeing to the fact it happened. At the outset racism, especially against Black people, is spun together in a historical context and since the abolition of slavery in the US back in 1865 with the 13^th Amendment, slavery has continued without chains through policies of denials, inequalities, and a system of justice that seems to modify itself with the color of the skin.

This is not only about the killing of George Floyd. It carries with it the symbolisms of the anger over the many other killings that were treated with the same disdain and sense of apathy that we see today. Those 9 minutes of a White police officer’s knee on the neck of Mr. Floyd were not just the nine minutes that prove that in the United States Black lives do not matter, but epitomises that Black lives do not matter in general. Mr. Floyd it must be said, based on the words of this closer relatives and friends, would not be happy to see the looting and burning, but the weight of the anger is not only of Mr. Floyd but the many more Black Americans who have been killed; Rodney King 1992, Tyrone Lewis 1996, Timothy Thomas 2001, Oscar Grant 2009, Michael Brown 2014, Freddie Grey 2015, and the list goes on.

What is more alarming is that the political leadership is absent in action and empathy to defuse the situation. The incumbent President has seen the recent riots much like the COVID 19 pandemic, from his personal political perspective. When the news is not fake to him it is then something to do with the enemies of American society. There has not been an iota of understanding shown by the President to simply comprehend why people are angry. Sadly the broader US political coterie, from both sides of the political divide, have also been chillingly subdued in speaking to the angry people directly.

Not all the protests have been violent and yes there has been looting in many instances but the dynamics of this run deep into the soul of America. While a looter may see a Wal-Mart store as symbolizing white capitalist exploitation (which is may well not be) he does see it in these hard times as a means to redress the economics of ‘injustice’. None of this makes it right, in fact each looter defaces the solemnity of the protest and the reason for the protest and gives the likes of Mr. Trump an excuse to call all the protestors thugs’.

One has to wonder where will America go from here? In a political and social landscape that has been divided by race already, thanks to President Trump, is there enough sentiment of empathy out there to help the healing? Will this be like the many other protests that eventually run out of steam and every body goes back to their cocoons of hatred, self pity, and anger? Will America as a nation in one voice say ENOUGH and then bring about the change that will truly make a difference, that will truly work to reform their society where any killing of anyone, black, white, yellow, brown or Technicolor, will be seen as an erosion of the very principles for which decent American’s have, through the centuries, fought for and died for!

This is that defining moment, buried under the knee of a white police officer what killed a Black man. From this rage will a collective nation rise what will kill racism once and for all? This is what every American has to ask himself tonight.

COVID19: How much more bad news to come?

With over 5 million people infected world wide, and over and close to 350,00 people dead from the COVID 19 virus, the world has been taking stock of the social, economic and psychological impact of this silent killer. Under the pressure of their economies caving in many countries have taken small and tentative steps to reopen their societies in the hope of preventing an economic free fall and yet not having a new explosion of infections. It is to say the least a tricky situation. However, the global numbers are interesting to read and merely looking at the infection cases as a barometer of success or failure against this virus can be misleading.

It is clear that countries that took measures quickly to close down social interaction AND backed this up with widespread testing and isolation have had the best success so far. It would be fair to say, therefore, that these countries are best place for a gradual lifting of their lock down measures, even in graduated stages as they have a better perspective of the ground reality of the impact of the virus. One key indicator is "Test Per Million of Population". In short how many people per million have been tested for the virus. At the end of the blog is a table of countries with key data including the total number of tests per million people and the percentage of tests carried out in relation to the total population. (China's total test figures are not revealed but we do know the city of Wuhan, where the epidemic started from was entirely tested.)

Looking at the data it is clear that smaller countries were, generally, able to test more people than the more populous nations. UAE and Denmark with populations of 9.4m and 5.8m respectively managed to test 16.2% and 9.4% respectively. Hard hit Spain and Italy managed in the 5-6% of total population tested which in comparison to the larger countries is respectable. United States with 4.5% people tested, UK 5.1%, Germany 4.3% do have some catching up to do in terms of testing. New Zealand, Russia and Portugal all rank respectably above the 5% level of testing.

It follows that countries which top the table in terms of the percentage of population tested will be relatively more confident that not only have their measures paid off but they can take a reasonable risk in a gradual easing of the lock down in their countries. In general it would seem countries with over 7.5% of testing levels sit more comfortably, if there can be such a thing, than those who are struggling to test even 1% of their population.

It would be interesting to relate this data to the population density per square mile and see how the injections have been spread in more densely populated countries and how testing has measured up in those countries. What is more alarming, and perhaps the fear of a wider global infection, is that countries like India, Pakistan, Iran, Bangladesh all have very low testing levels. Iran comes in at 1% of testing, India 0.2% and both Pakistan and Bangladesh below that. Considering these countries make up about 1.6 billion people it is certain that if testing was carried out on a wider front their infection rates would be much higher. Sadly the political leadership of these countries is claiming that they have a small infection rate compared to the population and hence lock down measures can be relaxed. This is the red herring in the pile and we have to be careful to jump conclusions that a low infection rate means victory over the pandemic. That argument can only make sense if the testing is done at a higher percentage of the population.

It can also be seen that sparsely populated countries like New Zealand can see that the multiplier effect of infections in densely populated countries does not apply to them and they can see some measure of success given the level of testing and isolation that has been achieved. In the United States we may see this pattern repeated in much of rural America. However, densely populated cities, as we saw in New York, will have to achieve close to 10% of testing before they can seriously begin to think of a relaxation of the lock down measures.

What this data tells us is that countries who have tested widely and were quick to put in lock down and isolation measures will manage an earlier return to normality, as was seen in Wuhan, New Zealand, UAE, Bahrain, Iceland, Denmark and a few others. In the UK it would seem in terms of London the higher testing and isolation has helped reduce the spread of the virus, however, arguably the same measures did not get implemented across UK early enough to see a nationwide impact. One could argue that UK may have to reach close to 9-10% of population tested as a level to breathe easier.

United States, perhaps the one country that acted way to late and only in the last three weeks have been playing catch. One would suspect that there is worse to come in the major cities of USA before things can get better. The situation is all the more compounded by the political pressure across American to reopen the economy and ease or remove the lockdowns. This, in my opinion, is setting the stage for a second wave of infections which might well emerge in August. The data, as analyzed for China, New Zealand, Iceland and others with moderate success against the virus suggests that if three things are done together and very strictly then the whole cycle of this virus takes and average 86 days to start showing a reversal of the trends. How much longer to declare complete victory remains to be seen. These three measures are a) TESTING, b) LOCKDOWN, and c) ISOLATION OF POSITIVE TESTED PEOPLE. These are the minimum essential tools to begin combating the COVID 19 virus.

The more dangerous writing on the wall is the way this pandemic will pan out in India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Indonesia, and other low tested but highly populated countries. Assuming that in India 5% testing was achieved and given the current ratios that 3-5% of tested people show they have the symptoms of the virus it suggested that India alone could have 2.5 million cases! While there is a fleeting hope that before this pandemic reveals it full impact through more testing people that the virus may have mutated itself to the point where it cannot spread anymore. As of today there is no scientific evidence that the warmer months or some self mutating death of the virus will take place. We must therefore brace ourselves for the worst to come. Easing the lock downs without proper examination may result in some countries with a second wave of infections.

	BY percentage test rank
	Country,	Total	Tests/	Population	%age POP tested
	Other	Tests	1M pop
	World
1	Iceland	58,225	170,739	341,018	17.1%
2	Bahrain	283,884	167,519	1,694,642	16.8%
3	UAE	1,600,923	162,071	9,877,923	16.2%
4	Luxembourg	68,107	108,990	624,891	10.9%
5	Lithuania	269,889	99,015	2,725,743	9.9%
6	Denmark	546,621	94,405	5,790,165	9.4%
7	Spain	3,556,567	76,071	46,752,999	7.6%
8	Belgium	788,110	68,031	11,584,564	6.8%
9	Portugal	689,705	67,621	10,199,578	6.8%
10	Qatar	192,484	66,931	2,875,845	6.7%
11	Kuwait	273,812	64,217	4,263,883	6.4%
12	Russia	8,945,384	61,300	145,928,315	6.1%
13	Ireland	295,626	59,940	4,932,053	6.0%
14	Israel	541,322	58,855	9,197,590	5.9%
15	Italy	3,482,253	57,586	60,470,472	5.8%
16	Estonia	75,779	57,129	1,326,447	5.7%
17	New Zealand	261,315	54,235	4,818,226	5.4%
18	UK	3,458,905	50,979	67,850,075	5.1%
19	Singapore	294,414	50,365	5,845,641	5.0%
20	Belarus	463,004	48,997	9,449,627	4.9%
21	Australia	1,245,062	48,885	25,469,064	4.9%
22	Austria	405,341	45,032	9,001,207	4.5%
23	USA	14,893,561	45,022	330,806,424	4.5%
24	Norway	234,637	43,316	5,416,911	4.3%
25	Switzerland	372,146	43,032	8,648,175	4.3%
26	Germany	3,595,059	42,922	83,757,235	4.3%
27	Canada	1,479,838	39,244	37,708,187	3.9%
28	Czechia	403,358	37,672	10,707,014	3.8%
29	Slovenia	76,384	36,742	2,078,910	3.7%
30	Kazakhstan	671,774	35,822	18,753,268	3.6%
31	Finland	168,700	30,452	5,539,869	3.0%
32	Slovakia	159,059	29,135	5,459,382	2.9%
33	Azerbaijan	273,411	26,991	10,129,784	2.7%
34	Chile	488,041	25,553	19,099,374	2.6%
35	Serbia	220,344	25,209	8,740,747	2.5%
36	Peru	820,967	24,936	32,923,430	2.5%
37	Djibouti	23,140	23,457	986,480	2.3%
38	Turkey	1,832,262	21,749	84,244,944	2.2%
39	France	1,384,633	21,217	65,259,187	2.1%
40	Sweden	209,900	20,797	10,092,886	2.1%
41	Saudi Arabia	722,079	20,776	34,756,224	2.1%
42	Poland	779,576	20,596	37,850,650	2.1%
43	Romania	377,191	19,595	19,249,829	2.0%
44	Mayotte	5,200	19,112	272,084	1.9%
45	Netherlands	324,918	18,967	17,131,112	1.9%
46	Bosnia and Herzegovina	59,934	18,257	3,282,754	1.8%
47	Armenia	51,594	17,415	2,962,695	1.7%
48	Hungary	164,619	17,037	9,662,723	1.7%
49	S. Korea	826,437	16,121	51,264,841	1.6%
50	Malaysia	513,370	15,883	32,322,531	1.6%
51	Kyrgyzstan	100,488	15,430	6,512,696	1.5%
52	Croatia	62,422	15,196	4,107,668	1.5%
53	Greece	155,037	14,867	10,427,916	1.5%
54	Oman	72,000	14,140	5,092,104	1.4%
55	Uzbekistan	460,000	13,765	33,417,915	1.4%
56	Panama	58,240	13,520	4,307,539	1.4%
57	North Macedonia	25,528	12,253	2,083,382	1.2%
58	El Salvador	75,146	11,591	6,482,911	1.2%
59	Bulgaria	74,539	10,720	6,953,369	1.1%
60	Moldova	40,565	10,054	4,034,871	1.0%
61	South Africa	583,855	9,857	59,230,390	1.0%
62	Iran	818,917	9,763	83,880,266	1.0%
63	Cuba	94,060	8,304	11,327,291	0.8%
64	Ukraine	291,868	6,670	43,758,701	0.7%
65	Dominican Republic	69,608	6,423	10,836,671	0.6%
66	Ghana	197,194	6,361	31,002,078	0.6%
67	Ecuador	106,079	6,022	17,614,626	0.6%
68	Thailand	375,453	5,380	69,782,581	0.5%
69	Colombia	252,742	4,973	50,826,673	0.5%
70	Iraq	194,444	4,846	40,123,092	0.5%
71	Gabon	9,908	4,463	2,219,916	0.4%
72	Morocco	146,598	3,977	36,864,928	0.4%
73	Brazil	735,224	3,461	212,405,664	0.3%
74	Argentina	129,418	2,866	45,153,114	0.3%
75	Philippines	301,677	2,757	109,427,802	0.3%
76	India	3,033,591	2,200	1,378,604,014	0.2%
77	Pakistan	483,656	2,194	220,427,217	0.2%
78	Japan	271,201	2,144	126,513,796	0.2%
79	Senegal	35,016	2,097	16,694,358	0.2%
80	Bolivia	22,294	1,913	11,656,259	0.2%
81	Guatemala	31,427	1,758	17,879,798	0.2%
82	Mexico	219,164	1,702	128,792,446	0.2%
83	Bangladesh	253,034	1,538	164,519,918	0.2%
84	Honduras	14,790	1,496	9,887,829	0.1%
85	Egypt	135,000	1,322	102,125,693	0.1%
86	Guinea	14,407	1,100	13,092,620	0.1%
87	Indonesia	256,946	940	273,223,931	0.1%
88	Ivory Coast	23,444	891	26,305,483	0.1%
89	Afghanistan	31,718	817	38,831,756	0.1%
90	Nigeria	44,458	216	205,570,171	0.0%
91	Sudan	401	9	43,735,987	0.0%
92	China			1,439,323,776	0.0%