The Biden Presidency: the challenges

 Joe Biden’s Presidency commences at a moment of US history where it’s social and political fabric has pretty much been shredded through the divisive creed and politics of hate of the last four years. Donald Trump leaves the White House in the back drop of a violent insurrection he purportedly inflamed and epitomises the legacy of Trump as a narcissist, egotist to whom his own survival matters the most. The road ahead for the Biden administration is not going to be easy as the United States faces some unique challenges, some created by the Trump presidency, others resulting from global issues. Joe Biden has tried to talk positively on the issues and yet tempered expectations knowing that the challenges ahead are enormous.

While technocrats will welcome the Biden presidency as it might be return to process and plann8ng in tackling some of the key issues. The challenges for Joe Biden can best be summed up as :

Covid-19 response.

In as much as the COVID-19 pandemic and the way the Trump administration handled it was their undoing, how Joe Biden tackles this enormous threat will define the seriousness of his tenure. While Trump can be partially thanked for one of the two vaccines that have come out the lack of a cohesive response to the pandemic by the Trump team is the legacy that Biden inherits. On the one hand is the logistic challenge of getting the vaccines out to the American public there is the more touchy issue that many Americans, mostly Trump diehards, will refuse the vaccine. 

Vaccines alone will not roll back the pandemic and measures such as masking and social distancing, including selective lock downs will need to be considered. With close to 400,000 dead the impact of this pandemic has been devastating, therefore, building trust and acceptance into any plan that Biden has is vital. On a broader front the economic impact of the pandemic needs to be addressed more comprehensively. Biden has already announced a $1.9 trillion relief package which certainly will be welcomed but this is really a first significant step to a broader solution to the economic imp@ct of the pandemic.

The Economy.

The state of the US economy is far from healthy, whether due to the ravages of the Covid 19 pandemic or some misplaced economic  policies the reality is that US public debt is at an all time high, unemployment is rising and in the face of a global slow down it is clear that for Biden and his team the economy is going to be a major challenge. Indeed prior to the pandemic the employment data was very healthy and in step with the trend of the past eight odd years. Had the pandemic not over taken events it is unclear whether Trumps tax breaks, increased government borrowing and the trade war with China would in the end result in a better economy. 

For the Biden administration while providing the stimulus to the economy and helping Americans with one time payments seems a priority. However, they need to see further down the road and draw up an economic plan that restores health to the economy. Reigning in the debt is not going to be easy as initially further public debt will be needed to kick start the economy. It is unlikely that the trade war with China will be rolled back in one sweep and Biden may want to use the leverage of a roll back to have a reset in trade relations to be more balanced. 

Charter of Trust with American Society.

One of the most important tasks for the Biden administration will be to rebuild trust within American society. One of the legacies of the Trump presidency has been his strategy to create and alternate narrative that rejects any fact that does not please him and to advance a militant nationalism embedded into a segment of his supporters who will not see facts other than the way Trump wants to. The recent attack in the Capitol highlights this alternate agenda and its far reaching consequences for US politics.  

The social divisions are glaring and racism is an issue as is political violence. Social reforms may achieve a better standard of health care, education and justice but uniting the country and creating a more tolerant society are going to be considerable challenges. One would imagine that with Trump no more the President some of the fuel to the fire of divisiveness will die down. However Trump will do everything to try and remain relevant and it would do the Biden administration good to ignore citizen Trump.

On a broader front the Biden platform has been put together with the support of the progressive elements of the Democratic Party and they have expectations of their own. Managing those expectations is going to be a challenge, however, it is more likely that Biden’s social and economic policies will be more in line with the progressive agenda. Building confidence in state institutions and the process of democracy will be a bigger challenge. America is a currently a fractured society and it’s the healing of its soul that is the biggest task ahead.

King Trump: Unravelled.

 If Donald Trump had to choose a character from history he would probably love to be King Henry VIII, a demagogue with absolute power who expected nothing less that totally fealty from his advisors and subordinates. His demand for total submission extended to his personal life and was not averse to executing those of his wives he felt had been disloyal to him. While Trump has not gone that far he does have an uncanny similarity to the way King Henry banished his closest advisors when they disagreed with him.

Trumps transition from business life, where he was, by and large, the sole decision maker, to public office, where consensus and cooperation are essential, was never really complete. For those who wished him to succeed in the role of the President of the United States and had secretly hoped that he would internally acknowledge his lack of experience in public office and embrace counsel and advice there has been nothing but disappointment. His first assertion that his inauguration crowd was bigger than Obama’s inauguration crowd, while a total fabrication, was seen as Trump being Trump. Few could imagine that this compulsive propensity to lie would become a hallmark of his presidency. 

Unlike King Henry VIII, President Trump had to contend with a free press and media which would, like it has done with all in office, question his decisions and actions. While the route to execute those in the press who he saw as critics was not available to Trump, (which King Henry would have done), the best course for Trump was to continually label the press as fake media. The more he called the main steam media as fake the less was the possibility that his base would believe the media even when the media was right. Rather than send the likes of CNN to the gallows, which King Henry would have ordered, Trump executed their credibility, at least within his own base. 

This relentless assault on the media was never aimed to win them over but to discredit them in the eyes of his base of largely non college educated White people to the point that he and his core supporters could then plant any conspiracy in their minds and it would be believed even when facts indicated otherwise. Today after an election loss Trump can claim the election is rigged even though his own government’s various offices have confirmed it was the most secure election in US history. In classical terms this is brainwashing the audience to the point of blindness and has been the signature of autocratic regimes. In the wash of this brainwashing, whether coincidental or not, quite a few well placed Republicans have taken the mantle of the Trump dogma with a fervour of being more loyal than the King. 

Character always shows it complete spectrum when we are faced with the adversity of a loss. Today, after a loss in the election, President Trump is less presidential and more of King Trump battling to not surrender the throne he sees as only his and only to be passed to his kith and kin, (his reference to his daughter or son being deserving to contest the election one day). King Trump feels besieged within the White House as he broods his last gasp moves to survive, much like King Henry was beleaguered after being excommunicated by Pope Clement VII. King Henry broke with the papal church and declared himself the head of the Church of England and converting the money paid to Rome into Royal Revenue for his personal gain. Gratefully for the United States there is a Constitution, Congress and a Supreme Court alongside the media and close to 80 million people who voted against him.

Trump still has 73 million Americans who voted for him and about 15 million of them are his die hard MAGA supporters. King Trump knows that losing the throne in the Oval Office may be a disaster in many respects yet he does leave with some leverage over the Republican Party. Secretly he must also wish that should he be prosecuted for illegalities the radical white supremacists could well come out to defend his name and honour. While within the core of the Republican Party there will be an effort to rid their ranks of Trumpism it is more likely that this election defeat will effect Trump in a way that he will shun ever contesting public office. In the end he never likes losing and the label of a loser is something he threw on many who got his disfavour.

As the days of the Trump presidency draw to a close one must be sure that Trump will follow a scorched earth policy. He aim will be to leave the  Biden administration with as many bushfires as possible, both domestic and foreign. The lack of cooperation on a transition effects policy, the pandemic, the economy and national security.  In foreign relations one would not be surprised some military action is ordered by Trump leaving Biden with war flames to extinguish. This is how King Trump thinks; if  I cannot live in the house I will burn it down. 

There is a less painful way out of this and that would be to invoke the 25th Amendment and remove Trump on the basis he is incapacitated. It has been almost twelve days since he has done any presidential work, instead brooding, watching TV, playing golf or tweeting. Those who saw through the facade know that Trump started his tenure with a lie about the crowd at his inauguration and ends it with a lie that he won the election. This, sadly, may well be the only thing we eventually remember about King Trump, while to his MAGA crowd he will remain a cult hero who gave a voice to the Proud Boys and the white suprematists.

Trump and Trumpism post election.

 Irrespective of the noise of fraud from Trump his loss of the White House is inevitable. However, while Trump may eventually vacate the Oval Office his brand of politics, loosely labelled as Trumpism, will continue to have an impact on US politics. Other than a hyperbolic slogan of making America great again, the substance to Trumpism revolves around Trump himself. Core Republicans must cringe at the way their party has been hijacked by Donald Trump to such an extent that in the 2020 election the GOP platform was simply to re-elect Trump.

The impact of Trump has a significance for Americans, both who support him and those who oppose him, in a more deeper sense than we realise. His racist bias, his persona of demeaning those who oppose him and seeking a personal loyalty add to what we already knew Trump to be, a self centred businessman who had a propensity to say the unsayable and walk over anybody to attain his goals. When, in 2015, he burst in the political scene few believed he had any chance. Then Trump started with attacking Mexicans, Muslims, and the immigration policies which initially were seen as attention seeking gimmicks. Credit to Trump he knew what he was doing; all he needed was the media to pick up his comment on prime time. He way saying things that a progressively disfranchised white non college educated working class felt but never said. He blamed China for their job losses, and the climate change policies for the contraction of work in the heartland of America. It did not matter if it was true or not but here was a man who spoke what they wanted to hear and for full measure Trump embraced the evangelical Christians to drive the pint home that he was their chosen saviour.

The very media that Trump labels as fake were the ones to promote his rise for them to only realise that monster had been let out of the cage. The racist bias of Trumps message was not an accidental slip, it was meant to create a base amongst the white supremacists who mostly came from his base of non college educated whites. Trump was unconventional in presidency because this language of tweeting and three minute attention spam is what suited him. Silently however he did what the stalwarts of the Republican Party could not do, namely, he created a base of die hard supporters. However, these are not supporters of the GOP but his own cadre if supporters. 

Looking ahead Trump out of the White House does not necessarily mean that he will fade into presidential retirement and has vaguely hinted at a run for the president in 2024. What we do know is that Trump is unpredictable and while he may be sending out feelers he is energised by his base who in turn feed off his rhetoric in equal measure. The role and place that Donald Trump will have in America’s political scene depends on many factors and the possible outcomes are quite intriguing and complex.

Once out of power Trumps hold of the Republican Party will be tested and some segments of the party may work to distance themselves from him. In contrast Trump, backed by his energised base, may continue to wield influence on the direction of the party and also work to position himself as the candidate for 2024. Senior senators like Lindsay Graham and Mitch McConnell are aware of Trumps hold on his base which could account for 20% of the Republican vote bank of 2020. Trump for his part will continue to try and command the attention of the public whether through his own media company or continuing his social media presence, even if the larger American audience pays attention or not. In that sense Trump will perhaps be a disruptive force for the Republicans who earnestly feel that in the last five years he has steered the party into a swamp where it lacks political substance and its infrastructure demolished in the face of Trumps nepotism and promotion of sycophants.

There is a more real prospect of Donald Trump slipping into the muddy waters of legal cases, some of which could be criminal in nature, and his erosion of power could result in a massive push back from die hard Republicans who balk at Trumpism and its impact on American political conscious.  It is most likely that Mr Trump will face a mounting financial crisis, legal cases and this would effect his ability to position his political destiny. Some have suggested that if spurned by the Republican Party he may consider creating his own political party. While this may be an option Trump would prefer the reality has that given his financial issues he may not have the resources for such a venture.

As the Trump days at the White House come to a close one has to wonder what Trumpism really means. His base would simply say Making America Great Again, which really means nothing more than a slogan.  To these die hard supporters he spoke for them, even of he ignored their well being and at the fringes he flirted with white supremacists hugging them into a form of political acceptance they never witnessed before. The vagueness of Trumps political positions on issues of race, women and white supremacy have always left him wiggle room to avoid the direct questions. His genius has been that he can make the odd comment that his is not a fascist or racist and almost in the same breath call the white supremacists very fine people. Being questioned by enlightened journalists or the elitist middle class about his misogynist and racist remarks does not bother him because he knows his base embraces his rhetoric. As he once said they would forgive him if he shot someone in Times Square, and forgive him they have; for his sexist remarks about women, for his racism against Mexicans and Muslims and his calls to lock up those who oppose him. This is the base that will not change its support for him and any intelligent expose on Trumps failures is labelled fake news. 

The challenge will be if Trumpism will survive and prosper after Trump? The simple answer it depends on the fate of Trump as a man. While he would like to hold on to the influence on the party the reality of facing debt repayments and legal actions we may have a very angry man melting into oblivion. Should he weather these challenges then perhaps we have to accept that Trumpism will continue to have  an influence on the American politics. The question is whether this will be of major consequence or not?

As a closing note viewing all this drama from abroad one wonders if Americans, especially those in his base will ever realise the lasting damage one man has done to the political fabric of the country. How could rudeness, the lack of decorum and decency be celebrated much less accepted from the office of the President of the United States will continue to haunt people who have been accustomed to much better. While his MAGA crowd will see Trump with admiration few outside that circle would disagree that it was a historic low for the Oval Office.

US Election possible aftermath.

 In two weeks the fate of America’s democracy and the shape of its society will be decided. To say these are troubling times is an understatement and that the complexion of society is not only shaped now but a continuation of trends we have seen since 2016. Polarisation is to be expected in political societies but never has it been laced with hate, anger, disinformation and ethnic tensions as we see now. As much as this is a battle for votes and swing states, more importantly, it is the battle for the mind of Americans.

The challenges that will emerge from election result can be daunting and for America’s sake one hopes these challenges are minimal. It might be helpful to explore the outcomes and their consequences:

A Trump Victory.

Notwithstanding the polls, where a Trump defeat seems on the cards, Trump could spring a surprise like 2016, and win enough swing states to be re-elected. While this will mean a continuation of the way we have sen things in the past four years, a re-elected Trump will be vicious in his attacks on his detractors. He will take firmer control of the Republican Party moulding it closer to how he wants it to be, even pushing his relatives to secure their political future. 

In the event a Trump victory is accompanied with a loss of the Senate then tensions between Congress and  the White House will reach a crescendo. It is more likely that his extremist right wing supporters, including the militias, might well intimidate his detractors in the Senate. These groups may also see a Trump victory as a license to impose their own style of vigilante justice. 

In a more broader level, a Trump victory will harden the lines of division within American society and result in further polarisation the cost of which will be borne by the average American on the street. Observe social media and you will see a form of anger and hate has crept into US political society that with every tweet, every angry profanity inflicts a wound on the social fibre that will be harder to heal. Will a Trump victory heal these wounds? Will his MAGA supporters be magnanimous in victory? Will race relations improve? 

A Biden Victory.

A Biden victory may well be seen as a return to normalcy, especially if accompanied with a Democrat party hold over the Senate. However, over the past two months Trump has been setting the stage for disputing any election result that does not grant him victory. There is a suggestion that a landslide victory for Biden is the only way for Trump to peacefully concede the election, however this could well be wishful thinking. 

If it is a close election then Trump will resort to the courts much like the Bush versus Gore election. Trumps hope remains that a Supreme Court with three of his appointees, all of whom were involved in the Bush-Gore case, could tilt the decision in his favour. However, this cannot be a forgone conclusion as judges cannot blatantly lean to a political agenda and judges have voted against what is expected often. 

If we see a Biden landslide we may see Trump conceding, let’s say a 30% chance, but be assured he will still go to the courts. It is in his nature to litigate and will hope his base, many of whom are white supremacists, will agitate enough to make it more difficult for his successor. In this scenario his comment to the militias to “standby” assumes particular significance. A small curtain raiser was that two weeks after his standby comment a plot to kidnap a Democrat Governor was unearthed and linked to a white militia group. 

We know Trump will not be a gracious loser and a nightmare scenario could well be him refusing to leave office and claim the whole election was fraudulent. It is not clear what mechanism exists to then force him to leave office as this has never been tested before. Yet there is confidence that sense might prevail and enough influence brought to bear on him to accept an overwhelming defeat. One cannot rule out that he may bargain a pardon in return for leaving office.

These are testing times for Americans and one can appreciate the emotion and passion we see. As painful as the anger and lack of respect for different political views exists one can only hope decency and the need to heal will prevail.

Trump and the virus

 It was almost as if God looked at Donald Trumps arrogance and indifference to 200,000 plus Americans having died from the virus that Trump said would go away and then handed it to him. Indeed it is an irony that the COVID 19 virus should infect the very man who made light of this deadly disease while privately admitting it was deadly. Everything that Donald Trump has said about this virus has come back to haunt him. Was a lesson learned in this awful episode?

Perhaps not. The systemic disinformation and mocking of people who wore masks, the most recent during the Presidential debate, all have been  a hallmark of this President who knows he could have done better. Better in planning, better in informing the people and most importantly putting together a credible action plan, based on scientific advice, to minimise the effects of this deadly virus. The reality is that Trump saw the virus as to what effect it would have on his re-election and to him listening to his scientists would have meant widespread lockdowns and their knock down effect on the economy. 

Prior to the COVID 19 pandemic Trumps campaign pitch would have been the performance of the economy, the stock market gains and his trade deals. The pandemic threatened that storyline and he had essentially two choices; think of America first by opting for a lockdown and minimising its impact or to downplay the crisis and hope it will go away. Had he chosen the route he didn’t take he could have actually boosted his chances for re-election even though his spin on the economy would have been diluted but then he could have pointed to the way every single country has had a severe economic impact. He could have shown he has put Americans first, implemented a strategy to keep them safe, invoked emergency powers to implement what scientists were telling him and what other countries have shown works. Without a doubt, even with say 75,000 deaths, which would have been in line with what other countries experienced relative to their population, his stature as a leader would have been enhanced.

Instead he chose the path to mislead, lie, and even deliberately spread disinformation on not only the pandemic but also as to the exact status of what his administration was doing to combat it. From touting untested drugs as a cure for the virus to even suggesting flippantly that bleach might work if injected into patients Trump showed incompetence that is not expected from the office he occupies. His grasp in the crisis was so weak that in July he suggested that they estimated 65,000 people would die from the virus, to then be faced with over 100,000 dead by the month end. He recently claimed if he had not done what he did 2 million Americans would have died! Why did he not reveal the modelling upon which any of his estimates were based, including his earliest remarks that by Easter the pandemic will be gone.

The reality is that everyone, from scientists to governments who have tackled this virus have had to learn their way through the evolution of the virus, but they have relied on good scientific practises and logic and lessons learned from previous pandemics. The Obama administration had, from its experiences with SARS and the Ebola viruses, developed a contingency plan and a playbook which Trump promptly threw out, perhaps because it had Obama’s signature on it. With nothing to replace that plan Trump thought he can outsmart this virus by talking things down and hoodwinking his way. The results are a matter of record and an abysmal testimony to the failure of leadership. What has been more difficult to digest has been the lack of transparency and a deliberate attempt to conceal the gravity of the pandemic. So much so some have termed Trumps actions as “homicidal negligence”.

After contracting the dreaded COVID 19 virus the lack of transparency continues. How did President Trump contract the virus? Clearly it was not Hope Hicks, so when did he show symptoms? Has contact tracing been done to establish all the people who could have been exposed to the virus? Have more than one test been done to ensure that some people cleared as negative are still not carrying the virus? What is the exact state of the symptoms shown by the President? As we know after a temporary improvement most COVID patients a week or so later deteriorate, sometimes with fatal consequences. Therefore the pertinent question to ask is what are the short term and long term prognosis of the Presidents condition?

Sadly for a president who has lied most of the past four years it is difficult to separate the facts from fiction. Showing him sign papers was designed to show he is in control but then signing blank pages exhibits the continued attempts by him and his cohorts to deal with his condition through smoke and mirrors, much like the whole pandemic has been dealt with. Someone has to tell Mr Trump that having lost the chance to have handled the pandemic as a true leader he should try and preserve what little credibility he might have by being straight and honest with people.

First US Presidential debate:A Review

 If one was seeking a winner of Tuesday’s Presidential debate all one witnessed was political suicide of decorum, dignity and respect for a democratic tradition that was designed to give substance to process of electoral choice. Instead of a statesmanlike debate one saw two men in their seventies bicker, abuse and insult each other in manner that even ten year olds would not do in the school yard. Each side will claim victory when in reality both should shamefully reflect upon how low the stature of candidates for the highest political office has sunk to. 

That aside the performance of each candidate needs to be reviewed. 

It was clear that President Trump came out really hot with the intent to not only control the rostrum and tempo of the debate but to provoke Joe Biden into losing his temper and balance. The moderator, Chris Wallace, at times struggled to control the floor, largely on account of Trumps interruptions, and could have been better served if the format would have been more like a college debate; each side two minutes per issue and then two minutes each for a rebuttal with microphones turned off when  it was not a candidates time to speak.

The review of this nasty and disgraceful debate would nevertheless be essential as some interesting statements and messages came across:

Trump:

High points : attacking Biden of his lack of bringing the change he promises now when through his 47 years in politics and 8 years as Vice President failing to implement the change. 

Missed arguments: Biden seemed hesitant to discuss his economic plan and Trump should have pushed him on that. 

Low points: attacking Biden’s family, failure to condemn white supremacists, (instead telling them to stand by) and failure to state that he would accept the election result.

Biden:

High points: not to get lose his temper over the family attack, not to retaliate against Trumps family, bringing some humanism about his sons addiction, clearly stating he would accept the election result.

Missed arguments: pressed harder on Trumps handling of the pandemic, pressed on Trumps refusal to confront Russia.

Low points: telling Trump to ‘shut up’.

Interestingly the whole debate was fact checked with Trump having a 80% false rating and Biden 20% false. Sadly this election is not going to be about facts it’s about emotions. 

The chilling messages one reads into this debate are worrying for then tradition of US democracy. It is clear that this election may well be decided in courts especially if it’s a close election. If there is an overwhelming Biden victory this may well be avoided but who knows what unfolds in the next 35 days. In some respects we must be braced for politically motivated street violence especially if Trump loses the election and hence the ‘stand down and stand by’ remark has a significance one should not brush aside.

For an independent observer, especially from abroad, the debate was a sad reflection on where the US political tradition has come to, and one cannot get to terms with the consequences of what we are seeing unfold. While it’s an exhaustive subject on its own it would seem America might well be irrevocably divided and in a decade or so a unifying charismatic leader might emerge. 

Trump Unbundled

 People deserve the leaders they choose. This is all the more valid for democracies where the assumption is that the electorate is educated and politically astute. Four years ago as Donald Trump created a divisive agenda and embellished a campaign with lies and racist slant one felt the United States of America was getting what it deserved. Even though one knew Trump had hijacked the Republican Party there was an inner voice that hoped he could step in as the 45th President and change by embracing the statesmen like qualities that the Oval Office thrusts upon its incumbents.

Four years later and the circus of the US election is unfolding again. It is obvious that there is a hard core of Trump supporters who continue to embrace President Trump believing in the hyperbole he has been spinning. It is unlikely that die hard core of his base will embrace the truth of Trumps failures as a man and as a President even when faced with his lack of action on the COVID 19 pandemic that has left close to 180,00 Americans dead. The fact he has embraced white supremacists, ridiculed minorities and shunned responsibility for the failures of his office do not matter to them. 

In 2016 the media played into Trumps strategy by giving him more air time each time he made unspeakable remarks and in a sense gave a platform for his views rather than ignoring him. Now the challenge is to unbundle this President even though Trump has a state machinery to defend the agenda and his position. However, one must admit that Trump’s success in 2016 was also on account of the failures of the Hilary Clinton campaign who ignored the states they were traditionally strong in and the Democrats just could not mobilise the voter base who could have titled the balance in their favour.

The challenge will be how to take an electorate who are increasingly apathetic towards the 2020 election to go out an vote? The choice is Trumps dramatic but untrue characterisations versus the Biden camps search of a meaningful message. Trumps assurance is his base, some of whom may have wavered but the question remains if he has marshalled in enough to replace those he lost. Yet it is clear his base also envisions cannot get him elected. In 2016 there was a large blue collar work force who were disgruntled with Hilary Clinton strongly enough to swing to the Trump camp. Biden and his team have to focus on these key segments in addition to the large number of people who did not vote in 2016.

To unbundle Trump is more a matter of focus on his content of his failures rather than a generic denunciation of the man. As we saw in 2016 some of the worst gaffes and revelations (the Hollywood tape, Stormy Daniels etc) did not faze him or his base. Unlike the previous election this time his character flaws can be pitched against his policy failures and this should be the focus of any challenge to Donald Trump.

His Presidency has left a litany of lies, and behavioural flaws most if not all of which have effected policy.  The unbundling of Trump is therefore a unique journey into the mind of a man who can only evoke two emotions; you can either love him or hate him, but ignoring him is no more possible.

Trumpism is to embrace the lies.

There is a plethora lies that can be attributed to Donald Trump, to he point he is labelled as a serial liar. Through this summer he has averaged at over 250 lies a month! What is amazing is that Trump continues to utter his lies over and over based on the dictum that if you utter a lie often enough people will believe it to be the truth. This certainly was the case with his accusation that President Obama was not born in the United States, which some of his followers still believe to be the truth. 

When faced with the gravest threats to US society in the shape of the COVID-19 pandemic Trump continued to lie about the gravity of the crisis and the measures he was taking. Sadly as US citizens died each day at an alarming rate President Trump claimed US was a leading example of fighting the pandemic, so much so that claiming the effects of the virus in the US were minor. At one point he was touting untested remedies for the COVID-19 and consistently denying there was a crisis. It was a clear case of the liar believing his version of reality and anyone who did not buy into that reality was enemy.

Politicians, including Presidents, are prone to stretch the truth, but Donald Trump does not bend the truth he simply creates his own version of the truth through a web of lies. One wonders when his wife, Melania, at the RNC meeting stated that people expect the President to tell the truth was it a tongue in cheek reference to her own husband.

Disavowing his former allies.

In Trumps White House it’s been normal to a cavalcade of officials be appointed and then to exit, some within a few weeks. The exits were either because they fell out with Trump and his inner circle or resigned in the face of criminal investigations. Upon their appointment Donald Trump has espoused lavish praise on the appointees calling them ‘very good’ people and upon their exit calling them losers. In cases where his former associates have been criminally charged Trump has been quick to state that he only knew them fleetingly and distanced himself from them. The most glaring fallout was with Steve Bannon, former chief strategist for Trumps election bit and then and advisor. During the early years of Trumps Presidency Bannon was a permanent fixture at the Oval Office and now discarded and facing a criminal charge Trump can only say that Bannon worked for his administration but he did not know him that well.

It would seem that Trump has no sense of loyalty to the people who have  served his cause. They are as good as their total subservience and submission to Trumps whims is the only barometer of acceptance by the President. Loyalty to Mr. Trump is a one way street and explains why sycophancy is the order of the day and a necessary qualification to work with Mr. Trump. This implies that the President will not necessarily get the best advice since there is a propensity on his part to surround himself with yes men. 

Ego before nation.

 Most people who have known Donald Trump attest to his over grown ego. He does not want to be ignored and resents attention to anyone but himself. This ego also shapes the self image that Trump carries to the extent that he considers himself smarter than anyone else, brighter than the best scientists, and considers his art of the deal implies he can negotiate with anyone, including dictators in North Korea or the NATO leaders. Having an over sized ego is one thing but in Trumps case he holds a vindictive nature against people who may be considered better than him. This explains his benign hatred for President Obama and everything the previous administration achieved. 

The result of this egoistic trait has meant that valuable time and resources have been wasted on proving he can deal with North Korea, when the lack of results shows how his ego cannot be out before the national interest. Trumps position on climate change, Immigration, healthcare and Russia show how one mans ego has been the focal point of a policy that he cannot rationalise. 

Trumps Achilles heel.

In 2016 Trump came under pressure to release his tax returns to which he declared if he won the election he would do so. Four years later not only have the tax filings not been released he and his lawyers have Ben fighting the courts which have ordered their release. What is it that Trump does not want to be disclosed?

Here is a theory, and mind you only a theory. Let’s go back to 2014 and Trump is flirting with the idea of entering the Presidential race. It was no secret amongst top banks that Trump was a risky client and since his earlier bankruptcies top western banks avoided lending to the Trump group. The exception was Duetsche Bank who at one point had an exposure of $2 billion to Trump companies. In addition there were a number of syndicated loans on projects where Trump was a significant minority shareholder in a project.  For instance the developer of 1290 Avenue of America, in which Trump owns 30% equity borrowed from a consortium of banks almost $1billion of which $ 211 m was provided by Bank of China. The loan was signed in November 2012. Around the time of the election in 2016 Bank of China denied it had leant the money however in 2017 its name appeared on listed of banks holding a mortgage on the said development. If it was an arms length transaction why would the bank deny it ever loaned the money? 

Now here is the theory and at the outset one must state that it is entirely conjecture. Prior to the election banks lending to Trump got nervous that a risky client would be impossible to handle if he became President. Some of these banks called in their loans. It is possible that some of these loans were bought by Russian banks and this may explain why Trump has been soft of Mr Putin and Russia. This would explain why the battle for the tax filings is so important as it would reveal the trail of the financial dealings. 

Either way whether true or not it does make an interesting plot for a financial thriller.

As the final run for the election of the next president heats up Americans have to make a moral choice not an emotional choice. One can excuse any number of Trumps failures and indiscretions but forgiving him for his failure to handle the COVID-19 pandemic is something one cannot do.  Jimmy Carter lost the election for the handling of US hostage crisis in Tehran, but today with thousands of Americans having died of the COVID-19 virus Trump not only survives but thrives on laying blame on others or flatly denying that he failed. If Trump is to be judged solely on his handling of the pandemic then he will lose the election. This is where the soul of America will be tested; is a second term for Trump worth more than 179,000 dead Americans?

COVID 19 and USA

One of the dictums of life is that you have to acknowledge a problem before you can muster the resources and means to fix the problem. USA's response to the COVID 19 pandemic is a case study of the denial by it its leadership to admit to the problem. President Trump, stubbornly and stupidly, has denied to acknowledge the magnitude of the pandemic and instead of statesman like leadership he has opted to politicize the pandemic to the point of ridiculousness. 

The talk from Trump is that the "US is leading the world in fighting the pandemic"; a bizarre statement considering that daily cases are rising, the death toll is the highest, albeit a bit slower, and most experts, including his appointees, confirm there has been no flattening of the curve of infections. The US has tested about 11.7% of its population of 220 million people, which is still lower than UAE (35.6%), Denmark(19.9%), UK (15.8%) and many more countries, even though above 11% is respectable provided other measures are in place.

What we have learned so far in the fight against COVID 19  is that social distancing, preventive measures like masks and sanitization are crucial building blocks in the preventing the spread of the virus. However testing is a pillar to the battle as it then allows one to identify the infected people, isolate them, determine their recent contacts and isolate them and thus restricted the rampant spread of the virus. We have also learned, in some cases the hard way that listening to the scientists is a vital ingredient to the battle against the virus. Political and social compulsions being put to the forefront of any plan to fight the pandemic is a recipe for disaster.

As governments the world over tackle the difficult question of when to ease the lockdowns and to what extent the concern always remains whether such easing will lead to a second wave of infections. While it is recognized that a prolonged lockdown can and will have serious economic and social implications the decision has to be made within the broad framework of how well has a country’s COVID 19 strategy worked. Lockdowns in themselves achieve little if other broader measures of social protection; masks and social distancing, and contact tracing are not implemented. In addition the purpose of contact tracing is precisely to indemnity people at risk and isolate them before they spread the virus any further.

Countries with broad and effective lockdowns backed by a cohesive COVID 19 strategy have shown success in this battle. In addition it has allowed them to move from wide lockdowns to smart lockdowns and side by side be effective in isolating people at risk through contact tracing. United States of America stands out as a country that has had the least effective strategy because political and social factors have over ridden what scientific sense has suggested. While other countries in large measure have seen the peak of the first wave of infections pass the US continues to see a surge in infections. The glaring lack of measures to contain social contact and implement measures that have worked in other countries continues to indicate that the worst is yet to come.

If the current rate of infections and the lack of a plan to combat COVID 19 remains in the US then it is highly likely that the first wave of infections will hit close to 8-10 million people with deaths exceeding 250,000 to 300,000. Indeed there is evidence that the virus has mutated and its effects may be less deadly but by the same measure this mutation has made the virus spread much faster.

President Trumps handling of the COVID 19 is an abysmal failure of leadership. While previous failures of the Trump Presidency were political and policy oriented, this one costs lives and at the current rate two and half times the number of Americans killed in the Vietnam war! Not having a policy or not supporting what the experts are saying is one thing, but here is a President who deliberately undermines the efforts of others and even has suggested that the virus will ‘simply go away’ one day.

The question remains if Americans will take President Trump to task for his failure to protect Americans in this pandemic? That will be perhaps decided at the elections in November.

                       

America Burning: The discomfort of racism!

There is always a distant distillation when sitting on a different continent and watching the painful burning of America. It creates a compelling reason to understand the pain that has caused this rioting and to better understand this label ‘racism’ which is at the root of the current upheaval.  The persuasive narrative is that this is a Black – White issue, it’s a racist event laden with the provocations and reactions that such emotionally charged and painful occasions bring. Yet sitting abroad one can flick the TV to some period drama series and not have to even hear the sirens or the gunshots on an American street. But then such escapes are not sustainable as the burning of America comes back to haunt you.

If you are white and do not subscribe to the white supremacist hatred for Black people, then you have two choices; sit on the sidelines and add the occasional voice to social media, or become active in supporting the moral right of the Black people. For someone like me, being brown, is a step closer to understand the pain of the Black man, but still being closer is not enough. One has to dig deeper into this malaise that plagues American society where the color of the skin creates hatred that demeans the life of the person with that color. In a sense the knee on George Floyds neck was symbolic of the knee that has been on the neck of Black people in America for decades. While slavery was abolished in 1865 it was only with the Civil Rights Act of 1964 that discrimination based on color sex or religion was officially banned. Yet, as numerous studies show, till 1980’s segregation along race was common in US schools and colleges.

In recent times, and to the present day, a policy of ‘redlining’ creates the de facto denial of equal opportunities to Black and other minorities in the USA. The practice makes mortgages, education and jobs more difficult for Black people to secure by simply raising the qualification criteria or the cost of the education and mortgages much higher. As systemic as those redlining measures are the current upheaval concerns the unlawful killing of a Black man by police officers and is the watershed of many such incidents in the past.

The issues concerning Black people and their treatment run deep into the core of American society, almost to the concealed psyche of the white people who have treated them badly. Yes it is true not all white people are there to kill Black people, and indeed the vast majority of white (and brown) Americans are appalled by the recent events.  Yes this also becomes that moment when we quote Malcolm X and Martin Luther King and seek to understand how this anger can lead to rioting and looting. How an American President can call the protesters ‘thugs’ and how we can simply ignore the weight of history that has caused this. One is often asked if one supports the protests, and after affirming one does, the next question is ‘do you support the looting and burning of shops?’

There is a logical unequivocal answer that one cannot support the looting? However, supporting and understanding it are two different things. I can understand why it happened without agreeing to the fact it happened. At the outset racism, especially against Black people, is spun together in a historical context and since the abolition of slavery in the US back in 1865 with the 13^th Amendment, slavery has continued without chains through policies of denials, inequalities, and a system of justice that seems to modify itself with the color of the skin.

This is not only about the killing of George Floyd. It carries with it the symbolisms of the anger over the many other killings that were treated with the same disdain and sense of apathy that we see today. Those 9 minutes of a White police officer’s knee on the neck of Mr. Floyd were not just the nine minutes that prove that in the United States Black lives do not matter, but epitomises that Black lives do not matter in general. Mr. Floyd it must be said, based on the words of this closer relatives and friends, would not be happy to see the looting and burning, but the weight of the anger is not only of Mr. Floyd but the many more Black Americans who have been killed; Rodney King 1992, Tyrone Lewis 1996, Timothy Thomas 2001, Oscar Grant 2009, Michael Brown 2014, Freddie Grey 2015, and the list goes on.

What is more alarming is that the political leadership is absent in action and empathy to defuse the situation. The incumbent President has seen the recent riots much like the COVID 19 pandemic, from his personal political perspective. When the news is not fake to him it is then something to do with the enemies of American society. There has not been an iota of understanding shown by the President to simply comprehend why people are angry. Sadly the broader US political coterie, from both sides of the political divide, have also been chillingly subdued in speaking to the angry people directly.

Not all the protests have been violent and yes there has been looting in many instances but the dynamics of this run deep into the soul of America. While a looter may see a Wal-Mart store as symbolizing white capitalist exploitation (which is may well not be) he does see it in these hard times as a means to redress the economics of ‘injustice’. None of this makes it right, in fact each looter defaces the solemnity of the protest and the reason for the protest and gives the likes of Mr. Trump an excuse to call all the protestors thugs’.

One has to wonder where will America go from here? In a political and social landscape that has been divided by race already, thanks to President Trump, is there enough sentiment of empathy out there to help the healing? Will this be like the many other protests that eventually run out of steam and every body goes back to their cocoons of hatred, self pity, and anger? Will America as a nation in one voice say ENOUGH and then bring about the change that will truly make a difference, that will truly work to reform their society where any killing of anyone, black, white, yellow, brown or Technicolor, will be seen as an erosion of the very principles for which decent American’s have, through the centuries, fought for and died for!

This is that defining moment, buried under the knee of a white police officer what killed a Black man. From this rage will a collective nation rise what will kill racism once and for all? This is what every American has to ask himself tonight.

A letter to President Trump

When one bends the truth, fabricates lies, and draw an image of oneself far removed from reality it is going to have consequences on the people around you and yourself. Insofar as the disconnect from reality concerns one's own persona it can be laughable and in the end people will not just not take your word seriously. However, when you are the President of the United States, the laughable becomes lamentable, the spin of reality becomes a unique window into the mind of the most powerful leader on the planet. Add to this the worst pandemic in recent times, a pandemic which has claimed over 80,000 US lives, and the worse is still to come, then the leadership expected from the White House has to be top drawer.

One watched in horror how a press conference where a reporter posed a serious question on the pandemic resulted in a Trumpian tantrum resulting in a walk out by President Trump is just symptomatic of the problems that face the American people. A leader caught up in the web spun by his own ego that the gravity of 1.4 million people, of today, infected by the virus and more people having died than in the Vietnam war, suggested a total failure of leadership.

Mr Trump started his COVID 19 position from denial; it was something that was never going to hit the United States, and even if a few cases came over he was sure he had the defenses in place. The nonchalant leadership went so far as to continue to hold political rallies in February and even March when cases in the US were beginning to crop up in isolated pockets. Then Trump took on the role of some scientist who had just stepped out of a research lab  offering different medications as possible remedies to the virus. At one stage going so far as to, seriously, suggest if detergent was to be drunk would it not kill the virus. Not much later he claimed it was a light hearted comment, forgetting the suggestion itself was caught on camera and there was nothing light hearted in the way 'Professor' Trump had proffered his advice.

On a more macro level the sense of looking out for ALL of the United States is totally absent with Mr Trump. It would seem either his agenda is not flexible to consider a bi-partisan enough or he simply does not have the DNA to be statesmanlike. We have an unhinged President who would rather pick a fight with a news reporter than pick a fight with the COVID 19 pandemic. Claiming that 'who knows one day this virus will just go away' is hopeless fantasy and hardly the sort of tincture that can ease the pain of 83,000 people dead. As estimates stand the most conservative model suggests that by August of this year the number of dead would nearly double the current level.

Soon after election Mr Trump was flouting the fact that he had executive powers! Why have these powers only be invoked on immigration, why doesn't Mr Trump invoke executive powers nationwide and bring about proper lock down measures to combat a virus that is tearing America at the seams. Why does he not reveal a cogent national plan and then use his powers to have every state follow it? At one point he even praised the people opposing a lockdown with protests saying they were very fine people. Mr President this virus does not ask you if you are fine person or not, this virus does not ask you if you are Republican or Democrat, and it certainly does not ask you if you are American or not, Christian, Jew or Muslim. Its indiscriminate in its selection, brutal in its spread and uncompromising in the fight it will give a patient, who if he or she can manage the many moments of gasping for air, may survive, otherwise will add to the long and growing list of the nameless dead.

Mr President please stop lying, stop blaming others, take a page from the book of other leaders who have stepped up and seem to be turning back the tide on this pandemic. You cannot simply be the best leader by only claiming it. You have to walk the miles, and these are going to be hard miles. No one is asking you to admit the failures of your leadership, that would be asking too much, one can only ask and pray that you will change; and change with the rising of the sun.

The human, economic, social and psychological impact of this pandemic is global and on a scale that we cannot really fathom just yet. Human perception of what will be normal in a post COVID 19 world is still in its formative phases, but one thing is sure that it will be a world full of fear. This is not the time to posture and pretend, its not the time to harangue on others, its not the time to make claims that even you do not understand. Its a time to become a leader, a time to emulate from the examples of Nelson Mandela, Winston Churchill, Charles de Gaulle, and many more. Look at the leadership shown in New Zealand, Denmark, Germany, South Korea, China (yes even China) and the UAE. These are leaders who did what is right, and with decisive and quick action and listened to the scientists and took on the pain of a complete lockdown knowing its immediate economic impact would be devastating, but knew not doing anything would be catastrophic.


In conclusion this is not about you, or your re-election bid, or the 'fake news' its about saving lives and for once putting the people you claim to lead before your own ego. There is still time to arrest the deluge of this pandemic. To do this doing what is right no matter what the cost of this to save lives must be done. The lockdowns and testing and isolation has worked in other countries and each day its delayed has a exponential effect, this leaves no room to procrastinate and try and spin the decision to a personal point of view. This is the moment which will define your leadership, and perhaps even forgive you for the egotistical few years we have had to endure you. Step forward now Mr Trump.

An unhinged Trump and another four years?

The Democratic impeachment of Donald Trump was destined to fail in large measure due to partisan politics in the US Congress. This was a fore gone conclusion and if the Democrats hoped the impeachment process would dent the credibility of the incumbent US President there was little mileage in that effort. Trumps resonance to his base and the undecided voters is not based on what is goon in human nature but more on the unsaid in decades of US politics. If Gray Hart in 1988 had to bow out of politics for his alleged affairs with women, Donald Trump in 2016 could flick off any political fall out even when his own words showed his misogynist trait because character is no more an issue for the electorate.

Trump's impeachment proceedings clearly highlight probable cause for impeachment, but without more witnesses enough wiggle room was there for Trump and his party to squeeze out of the discomfort of some on the line Republican senators from joining the impeachment camp. The thing about Trump has been that while he has elevated politicians lying to art form, his decisive and at times racial bias have become more the norm than the exception. His die hard supporters rejoice at his remarks against the Mexicans, Muslims and African countries (amongst others) because this is something they would have wanted to say themselves without being called 'politically incorrect'.

On the Democratic party side the impeachment proceedings were too rushed, leaving one to question why more witnesses were not brought before the House Committees; even though some subpoenas to Trump officials were ignored. On the broader political forum there is no denying the Democratic party has continued to be in disarray and the Iowa caucus fiasco only highlights their problems. Senior leadership of the party is lacking, and in general none of the current flock of Presidential hopefuls make one step back and say 'Wow'. The Obama legacy of a strong unified party has been left of the wayside, thanks in part of the Hilary Clinton era of an election run against Trump which lacked planning and intent.

What all this might mean is that a Trump re-election, as unpalatable as that may sound, his win in the 2020 election will not be because of him being the better candidate but because the Democrats are just not organized enough to have a charismatic leader to take on Trump. Much like boxing promoters one can only wish for a Trump versus Obama election fight but sadly that is not to be; even though I do believe Obama would have trounced Trump within the ten rounds. In a sense Michelle Obama against Donald Trump stands a better chance of winning than any of the current aspirants in the Democratic stable. This is not because the current coterie of Democratic candidates are not qualified enough, it just that they are not unqualified enough as Trump to tackle him on his terms; a dirty campaign!

Unless Trump does something more off the wall than he has done so far, and that is not impossible, the chances are that a Trump re-election, albeit with a smaller margin than 2016, is more than likely. A reinvigorated Trump with scale higher in his arrogance, and certainly we have a larger dose of his un Presidential style through the next four years. The impact of the trade wars he started may well come home to roost in his next term and any slow down will hurt the average American more than ever before. Will there be further attempts to impeach him? Highly doubtful unless the Republicans also lose control of the Senate, which is possible. Some Trump supporters may hope that a second term may bring out the better Trump and negate some of the damage he has done to the prestige of the office he occupies. This would only be necessary for the greater good of the Republican party because when it comes to congressional elections and local council politics the Democratic party has managed a better showing; they only seem to fail at the level of the national leadership.

Sadly for the impartial observer the next four years of an unhinged President Trump will be hard to follow. Frequent changes in his team, scandals and the general lack of an ethical bent to the administration will remain the order of the day. On the good side of things it will mean the end of the era of Trump, an era where crudeness, lack of honor and a slide into unhinged tweeting were the hallmarks of the Presidency.




 

A distant view: Trump Impeachment.

Being outside the fray of the daily US political scene has its advantages, the main one being having a distant view without the emotional drama that dictates whether you are pro or anti Trump. It allows one to see the issues without the political parties bias that has become the hallmark of a divided US political diaspora. The Trump impeachment issue is headline news, and the obvious question is whether he will be impeached and removed from office.

There is no denying that the process of impeachment itself has totally unhinged a President who was not entirely stable to begin with. It is often touted that it is his style and straight forwardness that in the hallmark of his behavior. His supporters often say 'he says it like it is', a trait they say that is removed from the political figures in Washington and it endears him to his political base. being straight forward and being vindictive are not the same, being politically savvy and telling lies are the not the same, expecting loyalty and dumping the people who went on a limb for him are opposites. But in the Trump world it does not matter. Its the world according to Trump and no one else.

However, the impeachment process makes it all different because it more than just washing the dirty laundry in public and on television. It could have the consequences of being removed from office. Herein lies the problem as given the US system his impeachment by the House of Representatives will mean then the Senate, which is controlled by the Republicans, will then hold a trial to determine if indeed he should be removed from office. Currently there is a slim chance of that even though it would mean seven Republicans in the Senate voting for impeachment.

There is a possibility that Trump quite relishes the idea of the impeachment as he knows he can hold the Republicans in the Senate to use their majority to not remove him from office, while the impeachment battle allows him to rally his base and remain the focus as the only national issue in the 2020 elections. However, a great deal of the impeachment process and its success will depend upon the validity of the arguments. Some Republican Senators are also mindful of the changing mood within their constituencies where in recent elections the Democrats have made inroads. Also the Democratic voters who were swayed to the Trump camp in 2016 are the ones suffering most from Trumps trade wars and GOP Senators are going to need something persuasive enough to voter against Trump in the Senate.

There is ample evidence emerging through the impeachment process that President Trump did indeed commit impeachable offenses. It must be remembered that since President Reagan almost every US President has had some impeachment resolution table against him in the House of Representatives, and most of them have faltered or fallen by the wayside. This impeachment resolution certainly has the legs to make it to the Senate. While one may argue that the Democrats may be rushing things, which is a cause for concern, eventually it is in the Senate that the trial will reveal the depth of the allegations.

It is unlikely that once the impeachment trial is in the Senate that the GOP will be able to pressure Trump into either stepping down or at least stepping down from a re-election bid in 2020. The outcome in the Senate will mostly likely be a win for Trump, given the slim majority the GOP has, but the extent of the damage it will do to him in the 2020 election will depend on the weight of the evidence that will come out at the trial stage. One can argue that there were other more stronger arguments for impeachment, but this one has the more credible witnesses and based on the testimony thus far on judicial principles Trumps goose is cooked. However, in the Senate no matter who strong the legal arguments to remove him from office the matter will most likely be decided on political considerations; i.e party lines.

For the Democrats the aim might well be expose Trump and his wrong doing in the eyes of the public to such an extent that even if they don't succeed in the Senate they may well have damaged him in the 2020 elections.  This is only a partially viable strategy as his political base does not care what Trumps personal character or conduct is, and the swing voters may well be influenced by the economy more than by Trump asking political favors from foreign leaders. While the economy in some sectors has worked to Trumps advantage, i.e job numbers, the trade war has begun to take its toll in the largely rural vote bank which was Trumps election backbone.

On a more theoretical level one has to ask to what extent will Trumps supporters go to excuse him his shortcomings or wrong doing? Was he right in saying that he could shoot someone on Times Square and his supporters would still vote for him? He has politically shot many of his former supporters and his political base did not seem to balk. He has demeaned the stature of the Oval Office and all it stands for to petting tirades on Twitter and instead of putting people off, his supporters have cheered him on. Perhaps the political psyche of US politics was always divisive and politicians were mean little souls pretending to be nice and all that Trump has done is bring that reality to the forefront.

The impeachment process in this respect will only give up the substance to what we all knew that the man was not fit of the office he holds. Whether that opinion is not substantiated by impeachable acts will resonate in the minds of people according to where people stand on the scale of USA's divide political platform. His supporters could not care less, the vast middle class swing voters may well have got fed up with the politics anyways to care. In the end it is unlikely that the impeachment process will succeed in the Senate and in the end the trial of Donald J Trump will be at the elections of 2020.

Can Trump be impeached?

The past week clearly was pivotal in showing the extent to which Mr Donald J Trump can lie and mislead people. His former attorney, Micheal Cohen, who once said he would take a bullet for his client, realized the bullet headed his way was really a cannon ball and ducked to become a snitch that could spell trouble for President Trump. To say he was the quarter back directing the play for the Trump empire across not only business deals but hush money and campaign funding would be an understand. While Trump will dismiss him as unimportant person in the Trump organization, the fact remains Cohen may well have spewed out more than what Robert Mueller was looking for.

While Democrats and the anti Trump camp may be rejoicing that they might just have enough to impeach the President, there is a clear matter of legal issues to consider. If President Trump lied under oath to the FBI or the Mueller investigation, then indeed impeachment is a possibility. However, it would then be important to consider what did he lie about? Knowing of the hush money payments and saying he did not while a lie, would not constitute enough of a crime to be impeached upon. However, if it is proved that he knew that some of the money that funded his campaign was illegal and undisclosed then the matter might take a more serious tone.


In a broader sense, the distinctions of lying as an impeachable offense and lying in general, raise more disturbing traits to the persona of  Mr Trump. Yes politicians lie and bend the truth all the time, every one has done it, but Trump has taken lying to not only an art form but has blatantly bended the truth to the point that perhaps he and some of his supporters, have a totally different vision of reality. Coupled with the art of deflection Trumpians tend to still not accept the man is a pathological liar of the highest order. Kelly Anne Conway, his most ardent supporter, on the Chris Cuomo interview kept on repeating that 'Trump did not direct Cohen to break the law." Fair enough he perhaps did not, but that is not the question, the question is was he present in one of the meetings where payments as hush money were discussed?

Presidents cannot be impeached for lying to the public, perhaps because politicians are expected to lie to the electorate! This is ironic in the sense that he lied his whole way through the primaries and into the White House and continues to invent facts as he sees them, and the only retribution he can face is at the ballot box. There is no mechanism to hold him accountable other than the election or within the media. What all this means is that unless the Mueller probe comes up with a smoking gun that is directly linked to President Trump himself most likely President Trump will run out his term.


However, if Mueller does not get the link directly to Trump, and this is not the focus of his investigation, but indicts Trump Jr, or others close to him then the tightly spun web of deceit into the Trump camp will begin to unravel. It is also possible Trump may be infuriated by any indictment of a family member and will simply start a serious of questionable executive orders, pardons and firings which will perhaps save his family but leave the Trump Presidency open to impeachment. An unhinged Trump is not going to be a pleasant sight for anyone. The core of the Republican party is perhaps also fed up with the way things have turned out and might not have the will to continue to support a President who has become an embarrassment to many of them.

The base of Trumps support amongst the public, however, will not have any of this. To them Trump is making America great again and that slogan itself evokes a sense of patriotism, as false as it may be, that Trump relies on the most. His survival instincts are honed into playing to mainly that segment of the American public, a segment that has become his die hard base, to whom the man's lying, questionable ethics of business and his total lack of respect for others is seen as a man who is doing the right thing in their eyes. This is the division that Trump has brought to American politics, a division that he flaunts with gusto because it is where he feels he is right and everything he and his cohorts spin off feed into the mainstream of this base.

In the real political world if Trump is faced with impeachment his base may rally with protests and noise, but in the legal sense none of it can be consequential to a possible impeachment. The merits of whether he can be impeached all go back to the Mueller probe and this is why he and his base continue to call for its shut down. The Mueller probe is not about Trump, its about simply one fact whether the Russians interfered with the US election and how? It so happens that in investigating that many aspects of the conduct of people close to Trump, (Manafort, Flynn, Cohen et al) have come up which have created different smaller, but more significant, investigations into Trump Jr meeting the Russians, campaign finances, election rule violations, and even money laundering. These are the things which could lead to a more focused finger pointing to Mr Trump himself. While in fairness nothing has been revealed thus far other than his lying about certain matters related to hush money payments, the fat lady, or the tall man in this case, (Mueller) still has not sung.

The Breaking Up of the United States.

Nations are not only defined by the borders they live within but by the traditions and values of the institutions they build and the values that become the guiding principles of society. Democracy flourishes when these institutions and values not only become the ethos of the nation but also something that in a sense remains inviolable and sacred.  The traditions of a free and independent press, a fair and just judiciary, a politically educated population and the respect for the rule of law all become pillars upon which democratic nations rest.

Since 2015 the galvanizing of political support during the US Presidential elections set in motion a trend of intolerance, divisiveness, and a political cult of hate which continues to this day. The fact that a hyperbole of fear was created through lies and misinformation is often ignored even by people who defend it knowing that they are defending lies shows the extent to which the manipulation of political consent of the people continues. At the center of this erosion of values that define democracy is a man none other than Donald J Trump, the President of the United States.

For those of us who though the electioneering rhetoric would be replaced by a more Presidential Mr. Trump, were rudely awakened to his first lie about the size of the crowd at his inauguration. That blatant lie carried two very important insights, one, that he had no problem with lying, and two, he was going to be obsessed to shown he is more popular and a better President that Barrack Obama. However, it was not that alone; he continued his attack on the Press, calling anyone who disagreed with him as Fake News, and blatantly made derogatory remarks about who ever offended him.

The confrontation with a CNN reporter after the mid term elections, and then the use of a doctored video to justify the withdrawal of the press pass of the reporter all indicate troubling times for the way US values of democracy are being chipped away by this man. His ardent supporters will continue to buy the doctrine of 'fake news' that is espoused by Trump and his close circle, ignoring that the majority of reputable news networks cannot simple peddle fake news. Admittedly, some of them do have a bias and this is quite normal in a free press environment, but to expect them to be lackey's of the White House, as some claim Fox News has become, is stretching the imagination too far.

What is all this doing to the soul of the United States? Without a doubt the average American is a decent hard working, and even if not having a worldly view, is still a human being with values for life and liberty. While the shape and tone of tolerance may vary across America, it has never been afraid to confront the issues that sat uncomfortably with the norms of democracy; thanks largely to  free press. The issue of segregation, the protests to the Vietnam war, the over sight of misuse of Presidential power by Nixon, the unbecoming behavior of Bill Clinton as President, all were under the scrutiny of the press and brave reporters and journalists became the voice of the 'unheard'.

More importantly, the free press always held President's and their administration accountable, even though one may argue at times the press manufactured 'consent' as it did over the WMD issue and Iraq, on balance it kept a check on a president going rouge. This is not the world Donald Trump wants or respects, and him calling the press the 'enemy of the people'. To students of history this is a shocking reference as through history it has been used by totalitarian governments and fascists with alarmingly similarity to President Trump.

In 1794 during the French Revolution a law was passed that people who spread 'false news, (yes the same term was used back then) were the enemies of the people and such crimes were 'punishable by death.' Hitler and his cohorts repeatedly called Jewish writers guilds and other groups opposed to the Nazi policies as 'enemies of the people.' Stalin in a closed door address to the Communist Party of the Soviet Union called journalists, thinkers, and intellectuals who opposed the government as 'enemies of the people', and carried out the most repressive measures against them.

Donald Trump does not read, and certainly does not read history, his entire knowledge of history can perhaps be put on the back of a postage stamp and leave space to spare. He perhaps does not realize in his bid to consolidate power he is using the tools of trade used by dictators and his supporters, much like the millions of German's who not only stood by, but adopted the Nazi slogans are doing exactly the same. These are otherwise very rationale and perhaps intelligent people who, when it comes to Trump, abandon all logic and anything against him is seen as unpatriotic. Interesting that all dictators equated criticism of them as leaders to be the same as being unpatriotic.These parallels are chilling and at the heart of it they are dividing the United States.

People have become less tolerant of political differences, they have given up years of friendship just become one is a Republican and the other a Democrat. While the Democrats may well carry the burden of their own rhetoric there is no denying that the fuel to the fire that today divides America comes from the mouth of Donald Trump alone. He instills fear in the people, like the migrant caravan, which suddenly today, a week after the mid term elections, is not even spoken off. He has no issue with dropping words that have racist tones and then plead normalcy in his speech.

The United States needs to take back the values that make it such a great nation. It needs to stop this division and the behavior that ferments this hate and stand up for the freedom of the press. Sadly few realize that the fissures that Mr Trump has been driving into the social fabric of American society will not only become massive cracks, they will divide the country up in a manner where generations will pass before the healing sets in.

Trump and Twitter: The role of social media in US Politics.

President Trump, as candidate for the Presidential election, whether by design or through the sheer twist of his personality used social media, and especially Twitter, to create a phenomenon that actually won him the election. I do not believe this was a thought out strategy but it fell into a space where his personality benefited from the use of this 160 words messaging blitz per message and as it snowballed into a massive following of over 55 million followers, it became his chosen platform of communication. While admittedly not all 55 million are his ardent admirers it did draw into his base of followers. Without disrespect to his base, most of them did not prefer to delve into the 3000 word articles analyzing the position of different candidates on national and even international issues. Like Trump their attention span fitted into the Twitter format perfectly.

But this was only the backdrop in which then candidate Trump and now President, tweeted over 35,000 tweets in the past year alone. Spending months analyzing Trumps Twitter behavior reveals something interesting. Not prone to a serious debate or deep intellectual discourses on the state of the world or the US, Trump realized that he could say anything on Twitter and in a nano second it would not only be read but believed by his followers. If it was a lie, and many of his tweets were fabrications, then people would, much like the world of Twitter just simply move on.

His biggest coup was apparent when Hilary Clinton was speaking at the Democratic Convention and while she was speaking, Donald Trump was tweeting, in real time, his rebuttals, some of which were not accurate, to a much larger audience. Having sent his tirade of tweets out while Hilary was speaking he forced the hand of the press corp to then not only report on what Hilary had said but in real time also refer to what Trump had said on those issues. This was unprecedented as in the past such a speech would have been reported as it happened only the next day or hours later the rebuttals from opposing candidates would be reported. In a sense Trump was diluting Hilary's message.

Because no one in political circles had seen this sort of use of social media the political pundits considered Trump inexperienced, immature politically to have a serious view point. But these intellectual stalwarts forgot one important thing, Trump was outflanking them and appealing to the very people who did not read or want to read the lengthy articles in the main media. Like Trump they liked in the world of the nano second, and it did not matter to them what anyone else said but like it or not Trump had not only the first move advantage on Twitter, he relentlessly hogged that space.

Fact checking Trumps tweets does reveal in general he was lying, bending facts, or simply attacking people. But this did not matter because much like Twitters architecture a message has a limited life out there and yes people can comment and correct the tweet, but still the original message has found its mark. Importantly Trump followed one cardinal rule, he ignored all replies to his tweets, even those that praised him, the few that they were, because to him these views that did not agree with him did not matter, they were just noise. The media outlets that liked his message believed his tweets with messianic fervor, his detractors laughed at him, but beneath the surface he managed to communicate with his base in a simple language they liked, truth or not.

As President, Trump has not given up Twitter and even used it to go after North Korea, China, Nato, Mexico, Canada, you name it and he has done it. Many purists believe, and rightly so, that Twitter during a campaign and Twitter as President are two different roles and it is not becoming of the President of the United States to use Twitter to demean and attack people. However, perhaps its a habit with Donald Trump that he cannot quit Twitter, or that he simply believes the electioneering must continue and twitter is the weapon of choice to him. Even as President the spread of lies through Twitter does not bother him because unlike other President these mid term elections are really a battle for his survival. He knows if his predicted red wave falters, then even his supporters in Congress will jump ship, all the more reason many of them have followed him for the fear that his base may turn against them. However, in time the US public will realize that his core base cannot be larger than the electorate and the test of that is around the corner.

For the moment Trump has only two weapons in his hands; his public rallies and his Twitter account. He has spent less time working as President than he has on the campaign trail trying to get his loyal candidates elected, sometimes sounding as if it was he fighting the election and not them. It seems its a matter of time when, like Kanye West, others realize that Donald Trump has used and abused their support. For the moment one has to give him his due credit for knowing the power of Twitter was powerful enough to tell lies and still be elected.

To Kneel or Not to Kneel?

Social Media and America is ablaze with the controversy about Colin Kaepernick, a NFL player, kneeling during the playing of the American national anthem. The emotion this has evoked got President Donald Trump involved, calling players who kneel, which he considered a disrespect to the anthem, 'sons of bitches'. If Kaepernick used a sports event as a political platform to protest police brutality, Mr Trump elevated it into a hysterical litmus test of whether you are a patriot or a traitor.

Now that Nike having endorsed Kaepernick, who is shunned by all NFL teams, the debate enters the broader realm of corporate conscious. The result is that it divides people just as much as the act of kneeling did, with some jingoistic burning of Nike shoes. Sadly we forget that Kaepernick first protested 21 months back by simply sitting on the bench during the national anthem. Then after consulting some war veterans he felt kneeling while showing respect would still highlight his protest. I suspect no one would have made a big deal about it had Mr Trump not jumped in with his remarks.

Tim Tebow, another famous NFL player used to also kneel, in prayer we may add, while having various verses from the Bible written on his attire and it was known he was a devout Christian and often spoke against abortion. While he did not kneel during the anthem he always did so after the anthem and it coined a term called 'tebowing'. Kaepernick, much like Tebow sees kneeling as a respectful gesture and why should it not be.

Kneeling in most cultures and history is seen as a sign of submission and respect. You kneel in front of the King/Queen, you kneel when you pray, you kneel when you ask a woman for her hand in marriage, so when did kneeling suddenly become a disrespectful act? I guess since Donald Trump, a man who hardly reads and has no sense of history, declared it disrespectful. His base of supporters, perhaps equally devoid of a sense of history equate kneeling to the national anthem as being disrespectful. Men and women have knelt before flags for ages, its an act of deep respect and submission to what the flag stands for, so why is kneeling during the national anthem suddenly so offensive.

I have watched a number of NFL games and when people are quick to criticize Colin Kaepernick as being disrespectful they should look in the stands. People are buying pop corn, drinks, walking around, talking to each other and some even sitting on their seats during the playing of the national anthem! Is that not disrespectful?  How many of these people burning their Nike shoes sit in their homes talking, eating and drinking during the national anthem. So let us not become so sanctimonious all of a sudden and condemn Kaepernick, or others, for an act which is misunderstood in the first place.

This false sense of patriotism, or the lack of it, is being injected into the American political fabric for the wrong reasons and for motives that have nothing to do with disrespect. If one cannot understand that and still want to burn their Nikes or Ford trucks or whatever then you have simply become the tool of an ignorant mass of people who are being worked up on what is perhaps the most humbling and submitting act, kneeling during your National Anthem, in front of your flag and in front of God.

The Trump Daily Diary Uncovered.

4.AM Read tweets on Obama's (the failed Obama care President) speech.

4.01 AM My tweet showing my success in 15 months more than his in 8 years.

4.02 AM Block 231 Tweeters who are traitors to America and tweeted response to me.

4.10 AM Back to sleep.

6.15 AM Wake up and do 5 minutes Trumps Make Trump Gorgeous Again work out.

6.30 AM Breakfast and watch Fox News. I love those guys, so patriotic. (Note to self to tell Sean Hannity not to invite treasonous traitors to the show. Its very very very bad for this image.

6.55 AM Swtich channel to see CNN (what the Fake Media is saying). The negative Don Lemon is going on about Obama speech. Fake losers . (Note to self. Must get public speaking coach).

7.15 AM Call Pence. "Pence my man, why are you talking of a lie detector test? I never accused you? Is there something you are guilty off?"
Pence replies, "Mr. President I just want to counter the fake news planting stories that I might be deep throat."
 "Come on Pence you cannot be deep throat, well not like Stormy.' I laugh and close the phone.

7.45 AM I am ready to start my day, Oval Office calls to say Angela Merkle wants to talk to me.
"Tell the immigrant loving weak leader of Germany that I am busy today making America Great Again, we can speak tomorrow before my round of golf."

8.00 AM Rudi, the mayor, calls on my cell.
"Mr. President you have to tell Sessions to investigate the story in the New York Times."
"Rudi I am going to do better I will order him to close it down."
"Mr President we cannot do that, this is America, we have a constitution that protects the press.'
"See Rudi this is why we are weak and Russia is strong. If Putin does not like a newspaper he closes it and we live in the dark ages with a constitution over 200 years old."
"Mr. President its the law of the land."
"I am President I can change the law, tell Lindsey Graham to have his guys in Congress draft a new Constitution. My dear friend Kim sent me the North Korean Constitution, its pretty good."
"OK will collect and study it."

9-11 AM Loads of photo moments with all sorts of people I don't know, loads of shaking hands and smiling. Not sure why the plaid shirt guy has turned up here again. Must speak to security to only allow enthusiastic supporter to the White House.

11.15 AM Called my friend Putin on the secure line he set up for me.
"Hello my friend. Sorry to hear about the fake news on the protestors in Moscow. I am sure they never covered the huge crowd in Red Square cheering for you and me."
"Don't worry Donald we in Russia have the means to deal with fake news. You should learn from us."
"I am, I am, in fact I am reading the leaflet you gave me on Presidential Control in Russia. Its very very very informative."
"Da Da, well good talking to you Donald I need to now prepare for a photo shoot while wrestling a Ukrainian bear."
I put the phone down and tell Kelly Ann Conway, "Kellyann now that is a man I admire."

3. PM After lunch (Hot Dogs and Burgers, Made in America of course) I head out to the golf course. Watch more of Fox News, these guys are such loyal subjects.

7 PM Return to White House.

9PM to 2 AM After watching more of Fox and Friends, a few calls to my man Sean Hannity, I sort the world out with my Tweets, 23 three in 4 hours that is enough for the world to know I am the toughest President on Twitter and with 54 million followers on Twitter I should get a royalty from Twitter. (Note to self, must ask Lawyer to send request for sweat equity in company.)