Presidents come and go but their political parties live on is an apt dictum based upon history. However in the aftermath of the 2020 election and in the backdrop of Donald Trump’s presidency that historical dictum has been scuttled to the bottom of the lake for the Republican Party. The biggest reason for this is the rise of Trumpism and a cult around the persona of President Trump; a cult not in the strain of Reaganism, which was political direction that Republicans embraced, but a cult of negativism and division which, in the end analysis, will hurt the Republican Party.
The Trump effect on the GOP sin terms of new voters and herding in the marginalised white non college educated voters was immense. These are referred to as the MAGA base upon which Trump rests his political leverage. It is suggested that they form a sizeable chunk of 30 million voters out of the 70 million voters who cast their lot with Trump in the 2020 election. This is a key vote bank that Trump feels he personally controls and is a mix of rural segments, white nationalists, older generation voters, evangelicals and ultra conservatives. Trump has been able to use this base to marshall GOP politicians into his camp knowing that these congressmen cannot afford to lose support of the MAGA crowd.
Trump has played with the idea of a 2024 run for the highest office and while he continues to election results he has raised a sizeable war chest of money, most of it under his own control, extending a mystery as to his intentions. Unlike previous Presidents Donald Trump’s motive to remain politically relevant is a function of him seeking some form of political insurance in the face of possible legal cases that could emerge once he is out of office. Alternatively Trump enthused by the power of the Presidency would like to Conte a career in politics even though rarely have ex Presidents sought office a after losing an election.
While Mr Trumps political ambitions are best known to himself he must certainly be encouraged by his MAGA support which may well be behind the rumoured bid for public office by his daughter Ivanka. Given his narcissist nature he would be tempted to wield this power over a significant portion of the Republican Party and therefore we would see his influence on display at least for the a year or two after he leaves office.
For the core Republican Party there is hope that once out of office Mr Trump will lose relevance and perhaps influence on the party. They would also hope that a number of the 126 congressmen who went along with Mr Trumps challenge to the election results would return to the fold of the party. The likes of Mitt Romney and others like him would like to steer the party away from Trumpism and their focus will likely be on the changing demographics of the US population. It is estimated that by 2024 almost 55% of US voters will be millennials and what is known as the generation Z, all coming from a diverse ethnic mix. These younger voters have a more liberal outlook and their priorities revolve around housing, jobs and social equity in the economic system.
The Democrats have caught on to this effect and a number of their congressmen were voted on on a progressive platform; an agenda that is confusingly called socialist when in fact it is more akin to the social democratic movement we have seen in Europe. The think tank within the GOP is aware that changing demographics are going to be a major challenge for their party and Trumpism, while increasing the size of their vote bank in 2020, was also responsible for a larger turnout for Biden amongst the very voter profile that will be significantly larger in 2024.
Post Trumps presidency their are likely to be tensions between the core of the Republican Party and Trump and he will try and wield his MAGA card to control the party. One may question to what purpose? Perhaps to position a presidential bid in 2024 or promote his daughters political ambitions or to create a caucus loyal to him within the party! The problem for the GOP is not only Trumps desire to be politically relevant but he does hold over $200 m he raised post election, ostensibly to pay for the court battles to over turn the election results. If the GOP resists Trumps bid to continue to lead the Republican Party there is a high probability that Donald Trump will launch his own MAGA party.
This is a nightmare scenario for the Republican Party and in the broader context remove any serious challenge to the Democrats in the next election in 2024. While political theorists may welcome the emergence for a third political party of significance within the USA in the short term it will benefit the Democrats. Should a third party emerge under the patronage of Trump it will leave the Republican Party seriously depleted in the short term. However, it will force the GOP to reinvent itself to appeal more to the new segments of voters entering the electoral rolls in America. One may also assume eventually a MAGA party will lose relevance even though this may take a decade or so, till which time it will remain a nuisance on the political landscape.
While Trump, in 2015 hijacked the Republican Party, in 2020 he is setting the stage to mould it into the direction only he wishes, failing which, he is willing to let it implode. He draws strength from the cultist support of the MAGA crowd and knows if he has to seize permanent control of the Republican Party he needs more like minded congressmen and not just politicians who favour his brand of politics because they fear his wrath. This is why it is more likely that Trumps newly raised money will be important for him to seek the allegiances he desires.
On a final note it is highly likely that Trump bogged down by legal cases, some of which were put on hold given his position has President, and a strong move to disfranchise him from the Republican Party may just result in his withdrawal from public or political life. While this is what may eventually happen but it is more than likely that it will be a long drawn process bringing with it considerable anguish to die hard Republicans. In the coming months this drama will play out with the gusto and hyperbole we expect of Mr. Trump, as he asserts he didn’t lose the election and to prove it he would want to win the Republican Party.
