Constitutionalism in Pakistan at a time of change.

 The changing of the guard at the Supreme Court of Pakistan comes at a time of uncertain political times underlying which is a struggle for parliamentary sovereignty with extra parliamentary forces embroils the apex court at the centre of the struggle. Pakistan's constitutional journey has often pitched the judiciary in the unenviable role of adjudicating on political challenges to the constitutional process. During these seven decades of Pakistan's existence the power and writ of the Supreme Court has witnessed ups and downs that has seen the Constitution either being abrogated or suspended four times. Each of these times a military led constitutional engineering happened under the 'doctrine of necessity' where the notion that the 'state' interests are superior to the legal necessities of the the Constitution. The result was the 1962 Constitution, the 1985 Amendment, and the 2003 Amendment. Each of these moments were followed by the Parliament reasserting its position through the 1973 Constitution, the 1997 Thirteenth Amendment and the 2010 Eighteenth Amendment, all with the aim to role back the 'centralisation' of the military governments. 

Sadly the constitutional engineering was directed through political motives and not really with the aim to improve the constitutional framework within the country. Recourse to the superior judicial system is always taken to resolve political conflicts, as we have recently seen, placing a heavy burden on the judges. The 18th Amendment was far reaching in the devolution of power to the provinces, a long standing demand of the smaller provinces, but fell short of addressing the need for devolution of power to local government at the district level. However, that Amendment also reduced the powers of the President with out creating a mechanism for the former powers to be vested in an alternate form. The result has been that since then the Supreme Courts decisions can only be implemented by the government of the day on a selective basis. The erosion of the judicial writ has been accompanied with a rise in the incidents of contempt of the court, in many cases by politicians and worse still from officials of the bureaucracy. The devolution of power to the provinces also been accompanied by a call for creating new provinces with the aim to adjust the power concentration in the larger provinces. This alone creates challenges for adjustments within the existing framework of the Constitution and new provisions and amendments that is a gigantic undertaking.

A major aspect of the centralisation of powers during the military governments, particularly during General Zia's regime, created a source of constitutional reengineering which went beyond the scope and intent of the 1949 Objectives Resolution. This resulted in a gradual and incremental growth in the religious content of both legal and even constitutional provisions. The fiat accompli of these enactments by nature of society and political expediency have since made debate impossible on this content and reform of those laws difficult. A case in question is the Blasphemy Law the discussion of which even to improve it evokes a violent response, leaving the onus of dealing with cases under this law to rest on the shoulders of the Supreme Court. 

There is little denying that after 75 years Pakistan constitutional edifice is still being worked upon which inextricably creates conflicts between the necessity of law to clash with the expediency of politics. Thus Constitutionalism, in the context of Pakistan, does at times represent absorb and be influenced by its ideological framework and the power dynamics that have emerged, from time to time, within the country. In Western countries the influence of ideology, beyond a recognition of democratic tradition of law, is low to negligible allowing a rule of law and the working of the judiciary to seen as not only the final arbitrators of the law but also the custodian of justice beyond the mere act of interpreting the laws. In the case of Pakistan the colonial and post colonial legacy meant that they drew much of its legal shape from Western, and democratic, legal traditions, which then were attempted to be juxtaposed into local and national norms and practices. 

Insofar as the problem of designing Pakistan's Constitutionalism was limited incorporating local norms and practices the task would not have been burdensome. However the power dynamics on the ground which resulted in military governments taking over four times created legal challenges which were monumental to say the least. Each of these governments sought to obtain legal cover from the judiciary even though, especially after the 1973 Constitution, express provisions (like Article 6) were violated. In each case the courts either openly obliged the military rulers (Ayub and Zia) with a new constitutional framework (1962 Ayub) or through large scale suspension of provisions of the Constitution (Zia). In the case of Musharraf the judiciary tried to maintain a semblance on continuity but on essential aspects of Constitutionalism went along with the military government and what its bureaucrats wanted. It is interesting that only after the military rulers vacated their seats of power the judiciary was quick to rule their governments acts as unconstitutional. 

There is no denying that the principle of segregation of power between the judiciary, parliament and the executive branches of the state has never been an issue. The conflict has been as to the scope of this segregation and where the dividing lines emerge. In 1996 and then in 2011-2013 some significant progress was made when the power to appoint judges, especially to the higher courts, moved to a Judicial Commission from the previous set up of executive appointment. Though only recently the Parliament of the coalition parties in 2023 have tried to assert their role in the matter of judicial appointments the matter is far from settled. 

There has emerged, after the 18th Amendment, a constitutional vacuum as to the absence of an executive authority to enforce the decisions of the Supreme Court when the executive branch of government refuses to implement its decisions. This has been recently seen in terms of the references made to the Supreme Court on the questions of calling fresh elections. Traditionally in a situation like this the President was empowered to call the elections based on the superior court decision. Political tussles have resulted in the Parliament passing laws that erode some of the edifice of the Constitution and some may even suggest a politicalisation of the judiciary is being attempted. 

One is often asked how India and Pakistan differed in their Constitutional law and more importantly, in the governance of the state. The simple answer is how the two countries differed in their initial design of the state apparatus and the functionality that went with it. India while accepting, initially, the vice regal system of the British rule, installed Lord Mountbattern, the former Viceroy of India, in a ceremonial role of Governor General. The founder of the nation Ghandi was excluded from the government role and did not hold any position, not even of a ceremonial one. Nehru this could assert the will of the Parliament in the shaping of the pattern of governance and  its Constitution was framed without any 'lopsided' power. 

In the case of Pakistan the vice regal system was not only adopted at Independence but the powers of the Viceroy were vested with the Governor General who was also the founder of the nation. While the initial intent was to create a cohesiveness in administration of the new country and it was desired by Mr Mohammed Ali Jinnah, the founder and first Governor General, that the Constituent Assembly formed by him to frame the constitution would deal with these issues. However, soon after his demise his successors continued with the vice regal system and indeed with the same powers. Considerable conflict arose between the Governor General and the Constituent Assembly with one Governor General dissolving the Assembly. In fact it was the then Supreme Court that in May 1955 decided that the dissolution was irregular and a new Assembly was appointed. The percieved 'interest of the state' has always been put to test against constitutionalism when the attitude of this vice regal mentality has come to the fore front in Pakistan.

Whether it was the military governments of Ayub, Yayha, Zia or Musharraf. or the civilian government of Ghulam Mohammed (1955) the 'interest of the state' have been used as a reason to dismiss civilian governments and in effect, like during Zia's regime, completely subvert the constitution and even the parliament. Let is not forget during Zia's regime the Constitution amendment actually carried his name (a first in Constitutional history) and the National Assembly relegated to an 'advisory' role. The 8th Amendment of 1985 perhaps single handedly eroded parliamentary sovereignty and at the same time introduced safety clauses (Article 58(2) and Article 90 to name a few) that provided a safety net for the military coup leaders from the effects of Article 6. We must forget the architects of this engineering were not all wearing a uniform, they included bureaucrats and members of the judiciary who framed and in some cases sanctioned the process to be ratified by a truncated or 'selected' National Assembly. 

Through these times the judiciary through various decisions on case law accepted, at times, that military rule was merely a constitutional deviation based on the necessity of 'state interests'. Powers granted well beyond the remit and intent of the 1973 Constitution were taken my both Zia and Musharraf and not questioned by the judiciary. The dictum was that the take over of power for national interest was itself the justification in law. While Zia's 8 Amendment gave him powers to make the National Assembly a lame duck and merely an advisory role it also gave him powers to dismiss the Prime Minister and even send the Assembly packing home. Further it create an trump card provision that created immunity from future persecution for the action of the coup or any other actions he may take. Musharraf's regime in addition created the unique provision that through various ordinances he could change any provision of the constitution as he thought fit. 

In this tussle between the de jure realties and the de facto realities within Pakistan invariably the the de facto considerations prevailed. Whether it was a full blown abrogation of the constitution (1958 coup) or the suspension, (1977, 1990, 1999) the judiciary was on hand to provide help to the usurpers. In the case of Zia and Musharraf the Supreme Court's award of the power of amendment of the constitution to them was equivalent to acknowledging that the Parliament was not the supreme law making body in the country. Ironically, we recently saw a debate where the Parliament was seeking to assert that it had supremacy over the judiciary by virtue of it being a body elected by the people. This new dimension to Constitutionalism in Pakistan is still to be tested and I am afraid this is just the first episode of the series. 

As a new Chief Justice takes his oath the perception of schisms within the superior courts judges need to be resolved. While the substantive part of the differences seem to have been over procedural issues political circles on either side of the divide did not waste time to politicise the situation. Indeed the recent PDM and the earlier PTI government took varying measures to plan a political complexion to the judicial process. The perception that the direct engineering by the military of the Constitutionalism process may well have receded in the face of a more buoyant judicial presence has to be balanced with a common held view that influence through proxy continues on major legal issues. There is no evidence to suggest either of the perceptions is true thus leaving a large measure of speculation which is used by all and sundry to discredit the highest courts. 

As a nation there is an urgent need to not expect political squabbling to be resolved always by a bench of five or more judges. Sadly after the 1973 Constitution was formed the process of continuous refinements to its legal framework was subverted in a manner explained earlier. Thus constitution making either was halted in the years that followed or completely derailed by the military governments. The new Chief Justice one can be sure is aware of the bumpy constitutional journey that has happened in the leading courts of the country. There is hope that the attempted politicalisation of the judiciary is stopped in its track. The creation of a more transparent view of the judicial process alongside by a tolerant and honest public discussion on constitutionalism in Pakistan should occur within the sociaty and on the media. The dispensation of justice should take precedence over only the interpretation  of the law. On a more enduring level a dialogue to bring about legal reforms and more education on the constitution should be encouraged. 

Imran Khan and the Political Scene in Pakistan

 When Imran Khan's government was ousted in a vote of non confidence in April 2022 one thing was clear that a multitude of political and vested interests aligned to thwart any political comeback. While the non confidence vote in itself was by the book there was little doubt that there was a good deal of 'nudging' by various interest sections to ensure the outcome was his ouster. To say what followed was to be a test of Imran Khan's political acumen is an understatement. Now a year an half later the highly popular Khan is incarcerated in prison under a 3 year jail term, his party has been ploughed through leaving a shell which he cannot really rebuild while inside. Yet Imran's political journey is a repeat of Pakistan's sad political journey where every elected Prime Minister since 1970 has been jailed at least once. 

In a country where opposition to the government is immediately equated with being a traitor to the country it is not surprising that patriots in the true sense are hard to recognise and much less appreciate. There is also little denying that every leading political figure has, at some time or the other, had the benevolent hand of the establishment guiding their destiny. This was true to Nawaz Sharif, Benazir Bhutto, and even Imran Khan, while one may argue as to the extent of the support and guidance that each may have received. 

There was a significant difference in the emergence of Imran Khan as a political leader because it was achieved on the back of massive political following amongst the youth of the country. While his three plus years in office were not spectacular they were not a failure either. It would seem that while his PTI government was planning for a long stay at the wicket and planning accordingly the reality was that with a coalition government the innings could not be guaranteed to be a long one. Imran's style of leadership, largely focused around his own office and persona, did not create the infrastructure of a true political party. This is much like his rival PMLN and PPP which remain movements collected around a couple of individuals. Both rival parties have never had qualms about making special deals to either remain in power or to regain power. Khan and his PTI not only lack the wheeling and dealing experience of the other two but also didn't use its time in office to galvanise the small political pressure groups into their mantra. 

Imran and his PTI forged a message of a 'Naya (New) Pakistan' where by definition they were going to change the way things happen in Pakistan. Even proclaiming such a noble objective is likely to rile up vested interests in the country who have created, nourished and benefited from the set up that has been shaped over 75 years since Independence. In hindsight Imran chose a platform where he created more enemies that he could handle and prudence may have suggested a step by step approach to remedy the system. But given his age and the lack of political depth in his party Imran Khan was in a hurry to change things, and being in a hurry one is likely to make mistakes. 

Having been removed from office Imran Khan seemed to feel he can, single handedly, rewrite the political narrative in the country and 'force' a perfect storm where the government of the PDM (an alliance of 13 parties) would be forced to call elections. While in Jan 2022 the PTI government's popularity was waning on the back of inflation and weakening currency, his ouster surged his popularity to an unprecedented level. Ironically this surge in public following was perhaps the single most deciding factor for Imran's opponents to attempt to derail his political journey.

The events of the past 18 months are not a good reflection on Imran Khan's political acumen. In similar measure it has also be a unique insight into how the 'state' can treat its political opponents. Human rights violations, disappearance of journalists, and a crack down on political dissent is the order of the day. Nearly 200 criminal cases have been filed against Imran Khan, all of which cannot be substantive, with the aim of bogging him and his supporter down into a legal quick sand long enough to dismember his political party. 

One is often asked if Imran Khan could have handled things differently. Without the benefit of being in the driving seat one can only make suppositions, and they may well be off the mark in such an analysis. After losing the majority in the parliament Imran chose to boycott the National Assembly, perhaps a move that back fired as his opponents mustered a sham opposition group and continued about their business. In cricketing terms Imran Khan forgot that you cannot win a match by sitting in the stadium. Even when the umpires are not neutral, and the pitch is doctored against you, your team still has to play the game. (After all he did that against India in the series there). 

Thereafter the strategy seemed to be to appeal to the public and political rallies, and long marches became the order of the day. The show of force was at times impressive but it created two issues. The lack of immediate gains from these rallies, and the possibility of steam running out of the political fervour all suggested this was not going to be a quick resolution on the back of street power. The government of the 13 did what they do best, locked down on the media blanking out coverage of Khan and his political message. Imran felt that the peoples support was his biggest weapon, and to a large extent he is not wrong. However he did not use this support to capitalise in any negotiations he could have had with his opponents and the establishment. On the contrary there were no substantive negotiations and till this day each side blames the other for the absence of a dialogue. 

While national media was ordered to blank out Imran Khan the one thing they could not control was the social media. Undoubtedly the passionate support for Khan in the social media grew and continues till today. It perhaps remains the single most focused voice that emerges in favour of Imran Khan. However, as much as social media is an amazing tool it is also something that is not entirely understood and therefore very difficult, if not impossible, to control. So much so that PTI position holders also got carried away in their messaging as an aggressive and at times vile campaign emerged against anyone or any section of society that did not embrace the PTI narrative. After the first short period of arrest of Imran Khan on  May 9 2023, it was no surprise that the intended peaceful protests turned violent. It is unlikely that such violence, which the nation had seen many times before in its history, was personally directed by Imran Khan, but clearly this is one of the many cases he will have to face. 

It is evident that there is a concerted effort to not only discredit Imran Khan but also to disfranchise him from politics altogether. Notwithstanding the legal challenges that he faces, Khan's role in a political sense will not simply fade away. His political survival will not only depend upon the powers that be but also on how he plays his cards in the coming months. If elections are held between November and February next year then as things stand Imran may well not be in the race for office. However PTI, if organised fast enough, could fight the election on the back of Khan's popularity and have a suitable enough showing in a high turn out election to make them a factor in the future of Pakistan politics. On the other hand a low turn out election which are prone to riggings, may result in PTI being marginalised. 

Some may argue that Imran Khan has no need to reinvent himself in a political sense, and this may well be true. However, he will need to assess not only his tactics and strategy but also focus again on the organisation of his party. Empowered by the support of the younger generation he must focus on his next generation of party leadership and build the party from the bottom up. The test will be whether he will need 'electables' who are assured election victory due to caste, creed or local politics. If the traction he has gained in the past 18 months amongst the populous can be maintained then his direct or indirect presence on the political scene cannot be set aside. Unlike the Sharif family where inspite of Nawaz Sharif being disqualified and sentenced to jail there is a plethora of family members to continue their political presence, Imran does not have the same situation. This implies that Imran has to gravitate to the young wing of his party who had not abandoned him irrespective of the pressure on them to do so. 

Imran Khan will have, nevertheless, rethink his approach in a political comeback he is likely to make. The steps he would have to consider would broadly encompass the following:

• Rebuild the party at the grass root level.
• Bring in a new empowered leadership.
• Create a non partisan 'think tank' to plan key economic, political, legal and social reforms.
• Reset his relationship with the military establishment.
•  Recognise that in Pakistan large scale change can only be done in phases.
• Build a core of highly professional individuals who would be the essence of their governance should they win the election.
• Decentralise power from himself and empower a new cadre of leadership.

Perhaps the list can be a mile long but it is essential for Pakistan that the current polarisation is not conducive to the country. Each segment, including Imran Khan, has to play their part in bringing sanity to the system. One thing is clear that things cannot continue in the manner they have been conducted over the past seven decades. Clearly the one thing that Khan's presence has done, rightly or wrongly, given a voice to the youth who were unheard in the past. His party should not see them as a tool for electoral victory but empower them to be a positive influence in the country. 

On the flip side it would be naive to think that popular political leaders can be simply dissolved into the heap of history. One may argue that some of Khan's image may well be tarnished. While Imran's popularity is perhaps his best insurance to prevent the worst, it is also the biggest threat he poses to his opponents. Imran's maturity is what is on test as to how these assets are used to not only tone down the political conflict but to project that politics in Pakistan does not need to be a zero sum game. 

Pakistan: Difficult Times.

 To say that my homeland,  Pakistan, is going through difficult times would, indeed, be an understatement of colossal proportions. On the other hand, someone may be equally right in pointing out that when has Pakistan not been through difficult times? According to Ayub Khan he marshalled the first military coup to over come some serious difficulties. Bhutto continued with martial law after the breakaway of East Pakistan, to form Bangladesh, because the country was going through difficult times. Zia ul Haq overthrew Bhutto to settle the situation and difficulties caused by the political turmoil from rigged elections. Musharaf while not faced with difficult times in the country was encountering a difficult relationship with Nawaz Shareef hence he stepped in. 

Now we stand at the familiar cross roads under the road signs of 'difficult times' yet again. Political chaos, an erosion of the principles of the rule of law, an economic implosion and a near anarchy situation has polarised the country. The edifice of the Constitution has been trampled upon with no recourse to a remedy other than the superior courts warning that the death knell of constitutionalism is around the corner. Sadly we, as a nation, are reduced to solely relying on a bench of judges to remedy 75 years of mismanagement. As we grapple with form and substance of the government we choose, or not choose, to govern us, we can only be reminded that perhaps we have held a fake democracy close to our hearts. with political movements masquerading as political parties it is no surprise that the three major claimants to our votes lack the political organisation of student union body in any developed democracy. 

As we stand today, two of the provinces of the country have essentially illegal caretaker governments in place. Human rights have become all the non existent and the rule and writ of the law is entirely whimsical to those who rule the country. A protest, which unnecessarily became violent, (not the first time in Pakistan) suddenly is equated with terrorism and with lines drawn so hard between all the stakeholders its now a show down between 'them and us'. Is it necessary that we in Pakistan have to push our already broken down cart of democracy to the edge of the ravine each time we cannot sit across the table and talk things out? If Martin Luther King was right that 'the riot is the language of the unheard' then we must ask what is the language of imprisoned and tortured nation? This is so because in Pakistan we have gone miles beyond being 'unheard'. Disappearances, wanton arrests, and a total disregard for accepting what is right have become the order of the day.

The blame of this rests upon the shoulders of the nation as a whole. Every institution, every political party, every state organisation, from the army, to the civil service to the bureaucracy carries their share of the blame. The politicians carry the blame for letting things slip so far that their only course of action is to play the blame game. Indeed Imran Khan, once seen as the possible guide to lead the country out of the mess, seems to have floundered in his way. The strange parallel one can draw between Imran Khan's political path and Zulfikar Ali Bhutto's is that both had noble principles yet both lacked the ability to understand the process they are governed by. Revolutions without bloodshed do not happen, and neither are they needed or possible in Pakistan. We need a revolution in the mind and an evolution of process that can peacefully, and perhaps in stages, shape the country to a better path. Like Bhutto, Imran Khan too perhaps feels charisma and mass support are enough to change things. Yes they are important and vital ingredients in the mix but a solid team, dialogue, and the ability to carry people with you, even those who do not agree with you, is something that has been lacking.

We stand now wondering how many more pages of our constitution will be ripped up. How utilitarian will our moth eaten parliament become in the absence of a sitting opposition (for which PTI must carry its share of the blame). Will this scotched taped government of parties that normally would be at each others throats, try and survive and prolong its stay far beyond it was welcome? Imran Khan bereft of his once passionate supporting cast of political figures, most of whom have either deserted him or forced to dump him, must now wonder if the script could indeed have been written differently. Perhaps sitting on the opposition benches would have blunted the teeth of this emerging oligarchy? 

Yet sitting distantly away from the turmoils of the country, one can only hope that sanity will prevail in these 'difficult times'. While immediate free and fair elections is the only way forward there is an urgent need to listen to the courts, to establish the rule of law and to stop making a mockery of the constitution. The consequences of further polarisation will not only be dramatic but they will also be dangerous. Imran must walk his distance to the negotiation table as indeed must the other parties and the establishment. They all must remember they are merely trustees of the nation which in the end belongs to the people.

Farida Sher: Sister, Friend, and a Guide.

 It is coming onto almost two months since my beloved sister Farida Sher passed away after a battle with cancer. It was not sudden and knowing the inevitable was around the corner did not deter Farida (who we all called Apa) from accepting the outcome with grace, poise and a huge dose of courage. In our regular phone calls, even though her voice became progressively feeble, her courage and sense of humor never diminished. A couple of weeks before her passing she was recalling the humorous banter she and I always engaged. 

Farida was more than just a lovable sister. She was a founder member of the Womens Action Forum (WAF) in Pakistan. He passion to highlight issues of women's rights was not just symbolism but an earnest desire to have more equitable laws and treatment of women. She often talked of teaching skills to woman who had been abandoned in the urban centers after they and their families had moved to the larger cities from rural Pakistan. As a founding member of Simorgh, a brilliant organization bringing awareness to the core issues of women's rights, violence against women and women's education, she worked with some amazing individuals. The landscape of both Simorgh and WAF reads as a who's who of Pakistan women rights stalwarts. Nasrene Shah, Kauser Shaikh, Samina Bano Rehman, Ajana Raza, Marium Abrar, Hina Azfar, Naheed Aziz. Neelam Hussain and many more all brought together a pool of wisdom and intellect which speaks for itself. 

One of my earliest memories was when Apa was doing her Masters in Social Work and was doing an exhaustive paper on drug addiction in Pakistan. I recall driving her to unmentionable places in Lahore and sitting through her interviews. Her emphasis was to understand the causes of the addiction rather than to condemn it. These were her early steps into social activism which grew to be a part of the street protests against General Zia's draconian laws which pushed back the rights of womens like never before.

Farida Apa was an avid reader and instilled in me the love of books from a very early age. I owe my love of reading to my mother and her, because between them I was often bombarded with questions about the books I was reading. This was a passion she passed on to her son Shakir, a dynamic businessman who carries the tell tale signs of his upbringing under the nurturing eyes of his mother. Sadly Farida, unlike our mother, did not write her story or any books, even though she was a great storyteller. I know if she had got around to it she would have spun quite a tale for us all to read. An avid self made gardner her never tired of telling you of all the various flowers and herbs she was growing. At times when I called her it seemed she was more interested in my experiment to grow avocados in Dubai than she was in me. 

But then this was what you got with Farida Apa, an undultered dose of honesty, humor and frankness. While her passing has left a void in our hearts, I do know that the fond memories of her, and the many stories we can relive of her will keep her alive in our hearts. Apa go in peace and may you blossom like your flowers in the Hereafter. 

Pakistan: Pegging to the Dollar: A tailspin to disaster.

 When Mr. Ishaq Dar was brought back to head the finance ministry, political supporters of PMLN were certain the guru was back. Mr. Dar talked down the dollar, and for a couple of days it seemed the mighty dollar quivered and retreated. But then the reality of economic performance surfaced and endemic economic problems need bold, yet sensible, solutions, The Dar response was two fold, shifting attention to the trend in the economy rather than the emphasis on the quarterly numbers and more importantly to silently peg the Pak Rupee to the US dollar at a notional rate of Rs221 to the dollar. 

During his last stint as the finance minister the idea of a managed float of the Rupee was used as a policy. Indeed this would normally help in making the exports from Pakistan competitive. In the previous years, when Mr Dar was the FM, the managed float worked because of dollar inflows from borrowings rather than trade surplus. during the period 2014 to 2018 Pakistan's total debt went from $77 billion to $110 billion largely to prop up the rupee. 

Pegging the domestic currency works when two conditions are met; 1) the country had a large surplus of dollar inflows from investments and/or exports and 2) when exports are substantial and a pegged currency is needed to make them internationally competitive. 

Clearly the exports were always under performing in the period 2014 to now and this is shown by the trade deficit has grown from $2 billion monthly in 2014 to over $5 billion a month now. So one cannot see that benefit the pegged rupee brings to a country where exports have declined to abysmal levels. Countries like China have developed to hold the pegged policy, like 66 other countries linked to the dollar, because they have a balance in their trade and their exports remain stable and robust. These countries use the surplus dollars to buy US treasuries and when their domestic currency needs support the US treasuries are sold and the proceeds used to buy the domestic currency. 

One fails to understand why a pegged rupee policy is still being followed by Mr Dar other than to give a false perception of the economy doing well because the 'rupee' is stable. The lesson of finance is that window dressing only works so far you have the means to keep putting up the decorations and when you run out of dollars the house cards comes crashing down. Therefore it is vital that this managed float policy should be put aside and while there will be a collapse of the rupee it will at least be dictated by the market conditions and eventually will normalise. 

The effort must be a broad tackling of the economy to bring back a direction to economic performance. One would like to see the following happen;

• Measures to increase exports.
• Encourage capital formation for industries in the export sector;
• Broaden the tax base and try and achieve a 3 % of population in 2023 and raise that to 4% of the population paying taxes;
• Manage the current account effectively and debt burden to be reduced.
• Effective measures to solve the circular debt issue that comes from the energy sector.
• Increase the national savings rate, which is miserably low. 

There is no doubt that the economy is walking a tight rope and needs some critical measures to be taken now. It is not time to play politics with the economy and all stakeholders need to understand that clarity is needed. The current economic situation is the cumulative effect of decades of mismanagement and lack of progressive economic policies. 

Pakistan's State of Affairs.

 In the midst of firing on Imran Khan, the selection of a new army chief, a plethora of cases in the superior Courts, and the Long March it would seem a perfect storm is brewing within the country. These events are all the more tragic in the back drop of the devastation of the recent floods and the sad state of the economy and yet many in the corridors of power seem apathetic to the situation. Were these events for real some of us may assume a well scripted soap opera is unfolding before us. Sadly this is not the case; we live in a nation where tragedies can only be measured against the enormity of the previous one we faced and somehow the senses become dead to the pain, the anguish and the sense of despair. 

Agree with Imran Khan or not, he seems to have jolted the collective conscious of the masses to at least think of the state of affairs. Whether the Long March he has called remains a platform of complaints or yields the election he wants to be held remains to be seen. Giving him the credit for what is due he has got the message across that he controls, for now, the street power. To those uncomfortable with this 'show of force' perhaps the only recourse would be a bullet, and that is what happened when his convoy was attacked and he sustained injuries. The modus operandi of the attack would seem to suggest that it was a tactic to create panic and fear and some sort of veiled warning to the Khan. 

Imran Khan, it would seem, does not scare easily and if anything it galvanised his support base to a frenzy of revenge, which he was quick to calm down. He knows well that civil strife on the streets is the very excuse his opponents want to crack their whips even harder. Yet the attack on Imran was close on the heels a the tragic murder of a well respected journalist Arshad Shareef in Kenya. Between the Kenyan authorities and the Pakistan government the whole matter has been botched such a degree that any impartial investigation into the murder becomes more remote by the day. This is hardly surprising as in Pakistan since 1995 over 97 journalists have been murdered and only in one of those deaths did the investigation yield any results. 

Meanwhile the country's superior courts have been inundated with a variety of cases during the past four to five months. Many of these cases have references related to the Constitution of the country and others are matters of restoration or protection of rights. By and large the decisions that have come out have been fair and it is expected that not all parties would be totally satisfied. We as a nation still have to understand that the Constitution is only a thin legal fabric over the body politic of the nation and through that cloth it will always beg for the Constitution to be modified to keep up with the times. On the other hand in a nation of 220 million it puts enormous pressure on 3 or 5 justices of the Court to be the only ones to uphold the laws of the country. A testimony to many that all other institutions seem to have forgotten their oath to uphold the law and the Constitution!

After much speculation and rumour it finally emerges that at the end of the month the incumbent Chief of Army Staff shall retire. While one can argue whether the current Prime Minister, Shahbaz Shareef, has the sole right to decide upon the new army chief, given that he is the incumbent, the whole process through which the incumbent Prime Minister is approaching this is bizarre. He has made no secret of the fact that he has been consulting his elder brother, a former PM and a convicted absconder, on the choice of the new appointment. If that was not enough during these consultations a diplomatic passport was also slipped through to the former PM? These brazen acts of defiance of the laws of Pakistan by a sitting Prime Minister are a precedent that cannot sit well with those of us who have a few ounces of grey matter between our ears. 

As these lines are being penned down there is noise by some government parliamentarians to take Imran Khan to task for 'wrong[y accusing the US for his regime change' because Imran Khan recently said he has 'put the incident behind him'. It is interesting that these parliamentarians are quick to jump to the defence of the US but remain silent on castigating the Kenyan government for the murder of one of the nations most upright journalists. 

Indeed these a troubled times for Pakistan and the polarisation between the political camps is immense. As much as it is the right of Imran Khan to have a protest march, he must also be aware that the election may just happen in the middle of next year. Having shown his street muscle he may have to tack a new course of political moves to maintain his political pull within the nation. it might well be a good time to take steps to move his PTI from a movement to a true political party and to make plans for not only the elections but the reforms that are so essential in the country.

Pakistan: Stalemate or Turning point!

 Since April of this year the political turmoil in Pakistan has dominated the scene. Irrespective of the narrative of each camp there can be no denying that the country has never witnessed polarisation of the sought we see today. Entombed in different camps, bereft of any dialogue the political impasse, more often than not, is adjudicated in the courts of law. The already fragile political fabric is torn with each infringement of the process, with each interference and intrigue. There remains no honest arbitrator who can cut through this angry polarisation and bring a meaningful dialogue to the table.

The economy was already sick, a cancer of thirty years and then the devastation of the recent floods has crippled an already corpse like body of the economy. The floods as much a result of climate change as also the consequence of decades of mismanagement of water resources. The nations only response remains fund raising for the destitute and the affected poor of the country. Few ask why this could not have been prevented. 

Imran Khan, today perhaps the most popular leader of the country, faces the growing dragnet of legal challenges and and a struggle to somehow get the country to the elections. his distractors would accuse him of being decisive and diversionary, his admirers consider him principled and focused. Either way there is weight in the argument that had he and his party sat in the Opposition by now the rag tag coalition that conspired his downfall might well have been out of office themselves. After all the former cricket captain turned politician would be hard pressed to recall a cricket match he won with his entire team in the stadium!

As for the alliance glued together against Imran Khan there is little denying that a sense of fear binds them together more than any lofty aim of doing the country good. Asif Zardari, as much the architect of Imran's downfall, shrewdly sits out of government letting his former arch enemy, the PMLN of the Shareef clan take the blame of the failures of the current coalition government. For Zardari knows that avoiding an election is not possible for ever but if the only by product of these shenanigans is that the Shareef brothers will be discredited then he has achieved an important goal.   

There is much talk of the elder Shareef, (Nawaz) returning to the country even though he is a sentence criminal and all he can return for is serving the remainder of his time. Other than a Presidential Pardon (highly unlikely) or a complete re-write of the Constitution, (also impossible) any hopes of seeing Nawaz Shareef in the political forefront is wishful thinking. But then we are reminded that this is Pakistan where anything is possible; after all for a period the Constitution of Pakistan had the name of a military dictator mentioned in it! (General Zia ul Haq).

At the crux of Pakistan's political misfortunes lies that fact that all the political parties, especially the three major ones, PTI, PMLN and PPP, are in essence just political movements and not really political parties. They are led by individuals in the absence of whom the parties will seize to exist, which might well explain why so much effort is done, legally and not so legally, to get rid of the head then the body will crumble. In a broader perspective of history it might well explain why at least 46 politicians lost their lives violently, starting from Liaquat Ali Khan, and the list includes, Mr Z A Bhutto, Benazir Bhutto and Mr. Bugti to name a few. Gen Zia, the main character in the elimination of Mr Z A Bhutto, was oblivious of an Arab saying that when you kill the snake you must get rid of its children too. 

Clearly violent solutions to what are essentially political problems is neither desired nor should be advocated. Dialogue should replace strife, and a recognition that never before has Pakistan faced three challenges of the magnitude it faces today. Political, economic, and a natural calamity as descended on the country in a perfect storm. Almost as if the heavens above want the people to wake up and accept that the issues that concern them are bigger than the narrative of politics that is bandied around with indifference to the worst possible outcomes for the country. 

As much as an election would be a turning point to sort out the political instability it could well also create an entirely new challenge if the elections are in any way rigged. Yet someone has to realise that in the absence of dialogue the only way for the stalemate to be broken is for even one of the stakeholders to stand up and say 'ENOUGH' and then do something to bring about the stability the country so desperately needs. This alone will set the course to plan an economic recovery and some return to normalcy. Ignoring this need of the hour will only mean further pain and hardship for the people of Pakistan. 

Karachi. (written in 1986-87)

Essay on Pakistan: Karachi the Gateway

NOTE: THIS ESSAY WAS WRITTEN IN 1986-87

Silent hot nights covered with sticky air and the musty smell of a dying day. It three in the morning as labourers saunter towards being awake. Dishevelled hair, dusty bearded face and the prospect of unloading fresh vegetables confronts their worried mind. A consolation creeps in; they don't have to work with their minds, it’s the monotony of heaving and testing the back muscles. Not many bend down to pick the enormous load; they have not read "Ten Ways not to Hurt Your Back" or its equivalents. Elsewhere, and nearby, some bundles of blankets stir, their bedroom stretching from one end of the footpath to the other. Occasionally disturbed by the shouting and hooting of the truck drivers. They cannot even ask for silence, they are the roving squatters.

This, in the midst of a turbulent July is Karachi. It is a city making and losing its identity in the strong emotions of street violence and the proud macho image of the Kalashnikov culture. The ultimate silhouette of a steely barrel of outrage, showing its indifference through the rear windows of Japanese made terrain vehicles. The concentric circles of hate find their political colours and fly them with the diffidence of a rebellion that lives and feeds upon itself, losing the core that found it. 

Does it matter whether you are "For" or "Against"? Generally being indifferent is more rewarding, keeps the bargaining chips on the table and somehow the political statement will be stillborn, even if it is senseless, who cares? And yet some can turn away from the image, the deceit and the hurt of being somebody in a city that tears out the eyes of those that call it theirs. There in a small uneasy shuffle, dragging one foot behind a torso of neglect, it walks one of the many people who have abandoned their dreams to the very hot footpaths that will make their bed tonight. 

Silence breeds in the noisy hospital corridors. Dettol soaked rags, pushed through cracking cement, leaving their pungency, while in the nearby beds patients stare at the cobwebs on high, old ceilings. These cobwebs live longer than the patients that spill their nasty lives on soiled and shredded bed sheets. This is the today of Karachi; the quiet and sedate look of a city that lays claim to being a modern city. 

There is an ugly side too. The end of hospital corridor where the private rooms ends and the wards roll into one another. There the suddenness of change hits you hard in the face. There is even less of a chance to change the tinted sunglasses. Here in indifferent and melting sickness lie the privileged poor who have made it to the hospital. Borrowed money, a daughter promised in marriage for the money, or perhaps even stolen money supports some of the sick. For others their life savings gone by in the one X ray that the technician got wrong. They need to be told softly that they only pay for the ones the doctor can see right. 

In stretches of the city, beggars hang out their twisted arms. A city lady winces; the car window had been cleaned just this morning. How was the beggar to know? The beggar's stare, loaded with pain and want, freezes with an impetuous shudder as it passes through the air-conditioned interior. If the beggar gets any further there is little to worry, the dark glasses will always shelter the lady from the aggravation of looking back.

In another part of the city some one will call them "Professional Beggars". Yes indeed! Unfortunately for the little children they never had the privilege of making that choice. Some pock marked, sunken-eyed man decided that a hammer well hit on a six year olds hand did enough to make him a "Professional Beggar". In that instant of piercing pain, the child lost all hope of knowing anything else than creeping up to parked cars, twisting his face in to contortions and pleading like there was no tomorrow.

They are organized through the length and breadth of the country. Karachi only attracts them with the same passion of honey exerting its inescapable seduction on bees. Here children learn to jump before cars, slowing down at traffic lights, mimicking the injury, the haggle follow, and finally the child walks away with a few rupees. A man lurks out of the shadowy bush, hands reaching for the most recent earnings.

I have heard people talk about per capita incomes. The essential truth is that poverty has no per capita income. Even where you may contrive it, or perhaps stumble upon it, it is a hard and cold statistic that suits some aid donor or lender well. The only per capita that matters is the "nourishment index". Poverty too grapples with its own unique nourishment index. Here a single half meal is all that counts to be considered a luxury. No steaks and definitely no liver pate'. 

This is not the only image of Karachi. It has its little vestiges of wealth. In the old days the wealthy were neatly tucked away in areas like Defence Housing Society. What an apt name "Defence". It normally did mean defending the life style of the affluent, defending the right to be different. It did not matter what the difference meant but different it must be. Some houses had nice swimming pools, servants wearing a white uniform with bright brass buttons. He commonly carries a silver tray with cool drinks and assortments. As he would bend down to serve the fortunate guest his own embarrassment would ooze out. A little of it was always left in the room, especially as his master or mistress smiled awkwardly. The uneasiness was usually hidden behind words like; "He is a new chap, just learning the routine." 

One always wondered who was the laughing stock. Was it the servant ill at ease in a straightjacket three size too short or large as the case may be? Was it the employer, fazed at his own game of mimicry?  The passing opulence of money seeps through the corridors of these houses. In the quiet evening of their bedrooms their will read the book reviews from some specially ordered arty magazine and next day the pretence of having read the book shall be played to an adoring audience. The fact that the book was just published will cross many a mind, but games of the rich are never interrupted. 

Times have changed; the comfort of a thick wall is wearing thin. The poor crouch nearer the high walls, some can even peer over, even if they do not work in the house. Never before has the ravine separating the affluent from the destitute seemed so narrow. Some little child actually believes he can reach out and touch the other side. His attempt at stealing the cycle, or whatever, is usually met with a harsh beating and hours later the burning walls of the police station can only be a cool respite from the sting of the rich man's whip. 

At numerous lengths one is told that Zulfikar Ali Bhutto "spoilt" the poor. He, in is bid for political leadership, needed the poor. They and their poverty were exploited. It was just as blatant as what others had been doing. He only used better slogans. It is not strange then to see the poor exploit their own poverty. The ultimate excuse for stealing, robbing or whatever. It will stand up for a polite word from the local politician to the police officer, especially if it is close to an election, the few and far between they occur.

Karachi is a city that is built, like all cities, on need. It also sustains the city with the crude mentality that makes violence and ethnicity willing bedfellows. And little by little as the new city of tomorrow takes roots, some little part of the desperate Karachi also dies. The cry of anguish is a silent one; it needs shoddy streets with dim lights and hollow existence for the final rites of burial. The ultimate masquerade of finesse and wealth mixes in rude and brutal cocktails of social prejudice and the final insult of a tongue stuck out, or at times even the ethnic insults that turn this city violent will do.

Here, like over grown friendships, only a small excuse is enough to light the ethnic fires of hate. The Punjabi, the Sindhi, the Pathan and the Mohajir have all found their little taunts and the stone thrown in anger means a lot more than the language of the unheard. Here it is the only way to be heard. It is a different matter that those who hear the stone crash through the window care little because it is neither their window nor their stone. 

In to the melting pot come the likes of religious fanatics, drug addicts, political opportunists and the wealthy that can never convincingly tell you where their wealth came from. Somewhere in their steely smiles their eyes will tell you that it was either a huge loan, long since buried in files and auditors, or perhaps a dubious business deal that is best described by "ImportExport". It seems more of export than import. The tell tales signs of the bribes taken, or the kickbacks received always subtly tucked behind closed doors; after all doors were made to hide things!

As time goes by the lies begin to multiply. Someone should have told these wealthy fibbers that lies multiply in exponential fashion, quite like heroin values jump from the small shop in the tribal belt to the final destination of New York. But then the ultimate shrug of shoulders and the "Who Cares!" has a poignant message that even logic fails to understand. In some gentle sitting room, a bearded Afghan, long since lost in being a Pathan, will tell you that selling Heroin to the infidels is alright, especially as he sends the money to fight the Russian Kafirs in Afghanistan. Logic breeds its own logic. Here in that sitting room the circle begins in the very instance that it ends.

A sari-draped woman will put on her Cambridge accent, mellowed with too much of BBC, and tell you that the real Pakistan is not Karachi. 

‘Karachi is too cosmopolitan’

That clearly establishes Miss England Return as one of the `haves'. The boundary has been demarcated and here there will be no disputes, no political tribunals and no wars of attrition. The verdict is out, if you must see Pakistan then by-pass Karachi. Does it matter that the person who delivers that imposing prescription has perhaps never ventured beyond Karachi, or at best been to the capital Islamabad?

In any transcendent form Karachi has its measure of deceit. The society lady, who will not waste her time with the young artist till he is well bought, is only doing what rightfully is her little bit towards making this a snobbish town. She has not been taught to ask why? The husband can at best ignore her passing reference to the “Import and Export” trade. He pays for her weekly, if not daily, visit to beautician. Perhaps he has been told that she is running out of faces to lift, or her double chins can now only set a ripple in motion. Somehow it does not matter. 

At times comparing is perhaps a consolation for the misery that one can turn away from one's own doorstep. Like an accusing finger pointed eastwards some voice will say, "But Bombay is so filthy and dirty. The poverty is unbearable."

My dear it is all a question of degrees. Another city's suffering can never deaden the pain of the poor under your feet. Karachi is in that, and only in that, sense an urban garbage dump of ethnic machismo and nihilist hate. Emotions matter only to the extent that they can destroy and injure, a cold blade of the knife piercing soft bellies may help in driving the point home. In any case the press photographers love that part of the ethnic hate cycle. Like expectant children standing beside a Ferris wheel, half waiting their turn yet trying not to show it, they click with the fancy cameras. The bloodier the picture the better; perhaps Time magazine will buy that one of the 13 year old with his guts spilled out. 

The poor carry this saga of hate upon their hardened shoulders. It happens day after day. Now the look in the newspaper of riots and violence do not matter, especially as long as you are tucked away in a five star hotel or the emerging concrete facade of Defence Housing Society. Someone, probably a ten-year-old child, is doing your part of hating, killing and maiming, so long as you can eat biscuits and sip tea or whatever. 

This broiling pot of cultural mix strives in earnest to find a new identity and at the same time try and kill the one it uncomfortably coexists with. The inevitable tussle will always leave scars of misfits. It is up to you which kaleidoscopic suits your palette; the economic scale of society, the ethnic jungle order, the political merry go round, or perhaps the haves and the have-nots. In any debate, seminar or political bickering ample evidence will emerge along any of these dimensions. More fundamentally, these troubled social jigsaw puzzles pose questions that bring the core debate of "Why a Pakistan" in to the forefront. 

The issue is not where or why; somehow in 43 odd years those questions and their loaded answers have all flowed down the Indus. Now there is a more basic debate, at times violent, the continuation of 43 years of existence, the corpus that must sustain itself if it needs to survive. Towards that essential task, Karachi provides a culminating point for a vast intellectual and nonintellectual dialectic. It is frivolous and serious, disjointed and well argued, ethnically dangerous and yet uniting, and above it is what may turn out to be the very excuse for doubt. Doubts in any political and social sense need not rest upon anything more or less than a rumour or conjecture. In a fast paced and emotional society people will forget the real reasons anyway, more so when the colossal force of history and the lack of sense of the future merge in a frightful combination.

Karachi makes all that happen, and at many times all for the wrong reasons. A child is run over by an overloaded bus, and the driver is meted out the justice of the mob. Drivers have ethnic backgrounds and worse, friends too. The cycle begins with the ending of two lives, and ironically the bus was overloaded by the ethnic cake mix that now turns guns and stones at each other. It is not long before the political rage that urges a hunger for cheap popularity joins into the burning mess of tires, stones, knife wounds and the sound of automatic fire. 

The reception clerk at the five star hotel will not bother you with the mundane killings in the slums of Kharadar and New Karachi. If you could have survived the unimaginable newspaper he will assume that it does not interest you. Perhaps a little inconvenience if you intended to go visiting out of Karachi. Should you mention the sad aspect of the child's death, the reception desk will merely mutter something about God's ways of population control. You walk away leaving the mumbling idiot at the reception smiling nervously, perhaps you were one of the million who was sensitive. "What a shame!" he will announce to his colleagues or to the peroxide brunette with the American accent that trails into lost syllables and nasal tenors. 

In the lowest end of the of the economic pecking order come the people of Kharadar and Lyari. The final epitome of the word poverty and yet blend with a sense of pride that makes them compellingly attractive. Their impoverishment is their greatest strength; the water bills never arrive, the man who reads the electricity meter ventures past chatting his way. He would not even know where the meters were installed, if at all. Theirs is the power of the riot, Martin Luther King’s distant children whose only language in desperation is the riot. The essential question is whether somebody listens.

Here within the foetal embrace of Kharadar and Lyari lie the very poor that socialists and capitalists exploit, all for the same necessity of political and economic power. Neither is ashamed about it. Benazir Bhutto celebrates her marriage amongst these people and that in the final count makes them her strongest allies. They have shed the garb of religious pretensions and embodied their belief into the sublimity of political promise. They acknowledge Benazir Bhutto because in her moment of happiness she thought of them. Whether there are any deliveries or whether there were any promises in the first place does not matter. Two decades ago the promises made to them by her father were more blatant. But then the man who made the promises long ago succumbed to the gallows or a military boot, and in Pakistan for those who die all the failed promises are suddenly forgiven.

While history is rewritten in paler colours at the commencement of each decade, the poor people have their own history. It is littered with the endless search for a stable job. The little tuck shop that Sultan opened just last month will, by some miracle pay the debt and transform into a massive department store that is the ultimate daydream that Sultan lives on. Indeed these run down slums of Pakistan house a million to one-day dreams. With the passing of each new car down the Highway nearby, another daydream takes roots in the hazy look that little boys throw towards the road. They are learning the ultimate message of want, "you cannot have everything you may want or deserve."  That is nevertheless a message that affluent mothers throw at their children over dining tables; like a little anchor to the murky ethical and moral codes they read in out of date English novels. To these children of Kharadar and Lyari the message of want will always carry a ring of Providence.

In years to come whether their lives will better or not is hard to project. Given their high birth rate and low prospects for a better opportunity the chances are that they will learn to carry on dreaming like their forefathers have. However, with each generation the fire will die out a little more, and as the eyes become cloudy with the urgency of poverty creeping up, they will resign themselves to dirty, dusty clothes and the endless search for scraps in the garbage cans. And when a neo Marxist looking reporter will survey them their answer to "Whom do you blame for you condition most?" will be clear and crisp, "FATE".

It takes twenty score generations to be taught that there is no social or economic reason for the way the poor continue progressing further into poverty. This is a progressive conditioning that makes the poor oblivious towards inflation rates, earning power and basic social and health needs. In the many years of political confusion they have even forgotten that they have a political power too. It is not strange. Their political and economic consciousness has been repeatedly gang raped, now all the gangs look the same, it does not matter which colour clothes they wear this time. Perhaps the desperation for change will come when the dreams stop coming to the little children, when selling the body and soul in a final consummating act of human slavery will bring a consciousness that may make a difference. Perhaps then as a new spring of jasmine water gushing out of the weakened corpus will compel the  demand for a better way of life in the future.

Yet in an ironical way these down trodden in Pakistan's elitist city serve a purpose. Like a constant need to touch an aching tooth, just to make sure it is still there, the rich need to know that their richness is the very contrast of the aching poor. The social toothache that refuses to go because the host body needs the cavity within its moral structure. How else will the bad breath of affluence fall upon the social web of status and fanfare?

So much is left to Fate that almost any cruelty that human ingenious may commit is cynically forgiven in the very instant that it occurs. While invisible lines have been drawn from one end of the city to the other, these echelons of power dress themselves in colours of tolerance that are paper-thin. They serve only to deaden the conscious long enough to be able to talk about what the sectors of neglect hold across the lines. The ginger smiles, the affected sleight of the hand and the make believe grimace of pain, betray the excruciating torment that each day is inflicted by these very people on the "have-nots".

In between these islands of arrogance and the vast sea of teeming poverty lie little coral reefs of the middle class. The people who carry the pretensions of both the classes those surround them. The pretence is aptly worn depending upon the circumstance. And mitigating circumstances will always be there to be grasped. Talking to the have nots the middle class will speak of the million hardships, the lack of money and what not. To the rich the social guerrilla warfare of possessions starts; the snide reference to the holiday flat in Spain will never call it a one bedroom flat, the word "place" will be more apt, disguising the nature of the possession well. As the running battle heats up, the middle class woman with the rolling tyres of fat will emerge to tell the equally obese rich woman, of the new clothes, the make up and the special perfumes. Deep down there is little competition, but the joy of being a middle class social militant is in these very escapades of comparison. 

The laws of progression do, naturally, suggest that the middle class will always strive to be upwardly mobile. They send their children to the best private schools; especially the few that have survived the 1970's educational mess up. They send them abroad to universities in Britain and the United States. The American political priorities are criticised in the same breath with which the USIS education officer is asked of the best ways to get a scholarship to a US university. The contradiction does not matter, it is generally accepted, even encouraged. A good Western education even if capitalist in dogma does not have to interfere with the political colours of drawing room socialists. 

Karachi, in that sense, is the epitome of duality and false standards. Social values contrast within families in the fiery pith of the generation gap, the economic gap and the opportunity gap. Yet deep within its heart this contrasting sad city buries its ambitions. The 12-year-old boy, swinging from the rooftop of a colourful but over laden bus, is a conductor rather than a student. His ambition is somehow to graduate to being a driver, to called an "Ustad" (Master) by a cheerful little boy like himself. His ambition has no timetable; poverty and neglect do not have timetables to run by. They are dictated by pure naked want.

Dream as much as he may like, this little conductor pays no octroi for the wandering of his imagination, perched precariously on the lower step of the rear door. The scenery passes him with the speed of his thought; nothing can be as fast as his daydreams. One minute a conductor and the next a driver, perhaps soon an owner. These fantasies of childhood lie within his breast, rarely stepping an inch closer to reality, especially when he is cleaning the Ustad's driving seat. It would be better he did not linger too long near there lest the Ustad feel threatened.

But then this is child labour, the blue sari clad woman from Clifton may exclaim to her equally ignorant visitor from OXFAM or wherever. Yes indeed, in plain simple English this is child labour. Unfortunately, poverty around here does not speak or understand English. The only language it understands and comes to terms with it its own hungry syllable of penury. The child that toils to the bark of an obese mechanic, or a drug-loaded driver does not bear with the burden of his povertybecause he loves it. He simply does not have a choice and speaking to him about the law about child labour and the United Nations declarations on the subject does not matter. The United Nations and the lawmakers do not provide bread for the table, or the money for the dowry for his sister. Yet on National Day parades you want this over worked, hungry child to look up into the skies and admire that black sleek looking jet that you call an F16. He only knows the name because every day he washes the bus, and there it is painted on the back of the bus. "PAF" its tail announces proudly; does the child know that it cost $20 million. Does he know what that means, the number of meals on the tables, the dowry, the education for him, his better life. 

But then Fate has taught him not to worry about sleek black fighter planes, they can never figure in to his logic. His job is the struggle for tomorrow, the bread for tonight and somehow to get the local shopkeeper from asking for the money that has been owed him since last month. At this scale of poverty there is no debt rescheduling, no fancy IMF meeting and austerity plans; this is the lowest ladder for the word austerity, anything lower would mean an addition of a new word to language. Is there really a word to describe all this?

Pakistan: Beyond the Sad Soap Opera of Expectations.

 For an omniscient observer of Pakistani politics the ingredients of a soap opera are all present; the heroes, the villains, the king makers, the conspirators, the exiles and the list goes on. Your choice of casting the actors into each of the roles depends upon your political persuasion and the intensity of the narrative you spin is a matter of passion. This soap is played out best on the vast screen of the social media and the Pakistan diaspora assemble from Australia to the United States and Canada and ofcourse a good measure of Pakistanis from the land of the faithful. While there is a fair amount of venting, (which is good), some alleged access of 'reliable' sources, there is also a healthy portion of intelligent and immersive debate. Twitter Spaces is the venue of this 24/7 congregation and the quality of the discussion all boils down to the 'host' and the key participants. 

Indeed the social media space and the ensuing war there is being won by supporters of Imran Khan and PTI, and a fair amount of space is, rightfully or not, 'their' space. However, with patience and due search one finds some remarkable discussions from economics, to energy crisis to solutions for water scarcity and micro economic measures ensue. Once the political narrative is discarded the discussions are polite and informative. In a country burdened with the expectation of solutions these participants clearly have the intellectual capital to make a difference. A young Pakistani from Australia, for example, delivered perhaps the best explanation of Pakistan's economic challenges and possible steps to rectify things. Another young man was amazingly articulate in micro economic steps to develop and nurture a cheese industry with massive potential for export earnings. 

The mood and flow of the venting depends on the news of the day, yet some narratives remain the order of discussion each day. The role of the Army, the corruption in the country, the failure of the new coalition government, the injustice to Imran Khan, and the list goes one. On the other side, in small murmurs are the Sharif camp glorifying the Sharif brothers as if they were some bygone heavyweight boxing champions with a birthright to remain in the ring. Keeping with the tradition of politics they claim Imran Khan left them a mess and they are the only ones who can clean it up.

With a detached sense of observance one can sense a deep feeling of expectations. The expectation that one man will appear like the hero on a white horse and rid the world of evil. The irony that the rider does not ride alone and in the context of Pakistan not being alone might well mean having an army of two million supporters to make ones voice heard. Labels of 'traitor' as handed out all who don't agree and each side somehow feels the best argument for change is one of the blame game. 

However in all this noise some important truths do emerge; there is a massive agenda of vested interest, there is a possibility of election rigging, the current army head (General Bajwa) may not retire and by some customary trick still be relevant, the politicians facing corruption charges will get a 'get out of jail card', the judiciary has been selective in their 'justice' or the lack of it. These are truths or issues that should concern all Pakistani's irrespective of their political persuasion and need some discourse. 

Vested Interests:

Pakistan, like most countries, has vested interests embedded into their system of operations. The vested interests work to either create a conducive status quo or remove an action that works against the interests of such groups. Such groups range from business to political figures to government employees and the military. With the lack of transparency and accountability over the past 50 years or more these vested interests have felt a systemic protection exists to not expose them. The result is that compromised politics and governance become the order of the day rather than the exception. 

Election Rigging:

One doubts if ever an election was held in Pakistan where election rigging in one form or another did not exist. The scope and depth of the rigging has varied from election to election. The introduction of Electronic Voting Machines was clearly a step in the right direction to greatly minimise the possibility of rigging. However, it is also true that elections with high turn outs, like over 55-60% are difficult to rig entirely and ensure a 'fairer' outcome than elections with low turn outs. Public education and a better sense of the civic duty of citizens to vote are also key drivers to achieve a better turn out.

Extension of Army Chief's service.

We sometimes make decisions that come to haunt us. If the PTI camp believe that the chief of the military had a major role to play in the ouster of Imran Khan, then one should recall that in 2019 when the Supreme Court objected to the intended extension of the current chief (Gen Bajwa's) they went through considerable pain to get an amendment to the Pakistan Army Act of 1952, with an amendment to allow the extension of the term of Gen Bajwa. It would be very surprising of another extension can be granted by anyone. Further there is noise that he may seek a new hybrid role of 'Chief of Defence'. This is highly unlikely as there is no provision in the law to make such an appointment.

The Get out of Jail Card:

A large number of members of the current coalition government, which replaced Imran Khan, are either facing trials for corruption and other crimes and some are out on bail while they appeal the convictions. Irrespective of the bad optics of a government with 60% of its members out on bail, the fact remains one has to wonder how much of their political 'fight' to save Pakistan is really a fight to save themselves by having these judgements against them not only reversed but closed from further prosecution. This might also explain why the two main political parties that hated each others guts are aligned together today.

Selective Justice:

There is a general feeling that the judicial system has been selective in the dispensation of justice. Important cases are slowed down while critical cases are not accompanied with a detailed explanation which may be easy for the common man to understand. In addition some vital national interest matters, like the question of the Volume 10 disclosure on corruption and foreign assets, has been pending before the Supreme Court since 2017. A case of immense importance to transparency in Pakistan which would disclose vital information on all segments of Pakistani society and the related corruption!

In the backdrop of these truths is the expectation that a miracle will occur and we will walk into a new day with these ills all removed. Sadly its not that simple. There has to be a concerted effort for reforms which cover every branch of government, the judiciary, the economy and even the military establishment. These reforms should be triggered from the perspective of what is good for the country and we have a history of 70 years to tell us what is wrong; thus discovering what is good for the country should not be gigantic task. While a reasonable mind would feel Imran Khan has the cleaner record to bring about these reforms it will need a hard core team of the best professionals one can find, even if they are not of the same political colour we like to see. 

Pakistan: Mapping an Economic Recovery.

 In a politically charged country having a sensible discussion on the economy is fraught with frustration. The political narrative deceptively disguises a combination of economic mismanagement and/or inaction the result of which is an anaemic economy. Talk of an economic default is common, and with it comes the weight of the blame game. Add to this cocktail endemic corruption, especially by the political leadership of the past and the result is not comforting. 

The PTI government of Imran Khan was seen as a possibility to steer the economic ship to calmer waters and in some areas success was seen. Two of their major achievements are increasing the tax base from 1.14 million tax payers to 2.4 million and to improve electric bill collection by 157%. Concerted efforts to address the trade balance did occur during their government with cutting imports from $63 billion in 2018 to $46 billion in 2020. During the same period exports fell from $26.22 billion in 2018 to $25.26 billion (largely affected by COVID). 

The PTI government inherited foreign exchange reserves of around $16 billion in mid 2018. In March 2022, around the time of the ouster of the Imran Khan government, the reserves were $22.4 billion, which then in first week of April (as the non confidence motion was going on) declined to $17.3 billion on account of $2.9 billion in debt repayment ($2.4 b alone to SAFE of China) and drop in home remittances from mid March 2022 to end of April 2022.  In reality in the period 2010 to 2022 Pakistan foreign exchange reserves have ranged from a low of $13 billion to a high of $28 billion (August 2021 on account of fresh loan disbursements). 

On the other hand the trade balance of Pakistan has been deteriorating over the past 10 years. This is largely due to stagnant exports and mushrooming exports. In addition internal structural economic inefficiencies in the power generation sector and the gas sector have added a huge burden to successive governments. In fairness to the PTI government they survived the stormy waters of the COVID 19 impact while registering below single digit growth, the more adverse damage was avoided. In 2021 we saw a buoyant growth in GDP and it would auger that some fundamentals at the macro level could have been turning positive. 

Looking back at the economic indicators and numbers can go only so far in a country of 230 million people where poverty and debt defaults are the topic of discussion on an everyday basis. Mapping Pakistan's economic recovery requires to consider a 10 year economic plan. While the intent to reduce the $130 billion debt burden is a cliched slogan one is inclined to believe that solutions are either not being focused upon or the political will to deal with these issues is absent. The issues being listed below not only need economic policy commitments to correct the situation but also need to consider a plethora of while social and administrative changes in the way the country works, (or does not work). 

Major Issues.

1. Circular Debt.

In short circular debt is a accumulation of unpaid subsidies on the electric power generation in the country and it is raised to finance the distribution companies who have to pay the power generation companies. In normal circumstances the circular debt would simply be the funding required to plug the gap between the power bill and the collection of bills from consumers. However, successive governments have subsidised power in multiple ways; either by incentives to power generation companies by paying them a higher tariff (PPP and PMLN governments) or by paying a subsidy on account of the consumers (PTI). The historical problems of the energy sector were covered in an earlier blog https://aqsher.blogspot.com/2021/11/pakistans-energy-sector-historical.html?m=1 so will not go into it much here.

The effect of this is that Pakistans financial system carriers a massive circular debt which in 2018 was PkRs 1.14 trillion and in April 2022 was PkRs 2.3 trillion. This increase was on account of the power subsidy from the PTI government (Rs 404 billion) and around RS 660 billion of subsidies to power producers plus the interest impact with such debt costing as high as 13% (and rising).  This circular debt is almost entirely held by domestic banks and is currently at $11.5 billion (Rs 2.3 trillion). How to reform the power sector and reduce this circular debt has to be a priority and have been dealt with in detail in the mentioned blog. However to summarise the following steps needs to be taken urgently.

a. Develop more efficient and cheaper power generation capacity to replace the expensive and inefficient power plants (which are subsidised through the agreements of the past). With new capacity the need for subsidy will go and older plants will either be phased out or power generators will have to come into line with new tariffs.

b. Improve the consumer electric billings collection. It is estimated that about 20-30% of consumer bills are unpaid or seriously delayed and about 12-15% of power is stolen from transmission lines. In 3 years it is estimated that the PTI government did improve bill collection by Rs 190 billion, and this needs to be continued and extended to government entities who are chronic defaulters in their bill payments.

c. The aim of the above measures should aim to reduce the circular debt by $2 billion a year after a two year implementation period, thus implying that in 6-7 years this $11.5 billion debt will be settled bringing much needed liquidity and confidence to the financial system.

d. Reform the gas energy generation sector where inefficiencies are chronic. For instance Pakistan loses gas worth roughly $4 billion a year through what is called Unaccounted For Gas (UFG). This is gas that escapes the transmission system through methane emissions and leakages. It is estimated that fixing this problem will cost $500 million and it would provide $4 billion of revenue a year!

2. Economic impact of corruption.

It is estimated that corruption within Pakistan costs the economy PkRs 7 billion (US$31 million) per day! That is over $12 billion a year of adverse economic impact on the economy. This is corruption at all levels, largely politically sanctioned and in many cases institutional at district level, police, judiciary and various government offices. Imran Khan has talked of a crusade against corruption and often has talked of stolen money being returned to Pakistan from abroad but there need to be steps taken to deal with the situation within the country too. 

A credible system of accountability and justice needs to be created which is not politicised by any party. Once public figures are being investigated or facing the judicial system any comment by political figures should be avoided as it plays into the political victimisation narrative. Reforms need to be considered where people who are being investigated should step aside from public and government positions. Currently there is no oversight of the judicial system for corruption and there needs to be some reform in this respect too.  As is known there is a military judicial system within the military establishments of the country and it should be considered that from time to time the military disclose actions that are taken against military personnel who have broken the law. This is a transparency all sections of the government need. 

Imagine if corruption can be reduced by 50% that will mean $6 billion more money into the system which is ten years could cut our external debt by 50%!

3. Focus on Exports.

One does not need to be an economic rocket scientist to know that positioning the economy to have more exports than imports is the best way to improve the lot of the country and the people. Since 1960 Pakistan has only had a few odd years where our exports were more than our imports, (trade surplus), and the trade deficit has been chronically rising year on year. There is an argument that this is largely on account of rising import costs for fuel and gas, which may partially be correct, but there is not doubt that export performance has been very weak. 

A concerted and well thought out policy and plan for boosting exports needs to be implemented. Incentives for exports and extension of banking credit to be made available for exporters. This is the most vital part of the economy that needs to be seriously overhauled. 

Pakistan Trade Balance - Historical Data

Year        Billions of US $.       

2020.        $-18.60B

2019        $-28.38B

2018        $-34.92B

2017        $-28.44B

2016        $-19.55B

2015         $-17.44B

2014        $-15.68B

2013        $-15.67B

2012        $-17.98B

2011        $-10.69B

2010        $-10.34B

2009        $-12.24B    

2008        $-18.42B

2007        $-10.00B

2006        $-10.18B    

2005        $-4.24B

2004        $1.01B

2003        $0.49B

2002        $-0.07B

2001        $-0.76B

2000        $-0.92B

1999        $-1.02B

1998        $-0.65B-

1997        $-2.93B

1996        $-2.86B

1995        $-1.64B

1994        $-1.43B

1993        $-3.16B

1992        $-1.54B

1991        $-0.71B

1990        $-2.18B

1989        $-2.52B

1988        $-2.14B

1987        $-1.76B

1986        $-2.49B

1985        $-3.75B

1984        $-3.29B

1983        $-2.96B

1982        $-3.36B

1981        $-2.67B

1980        $-2.53B

1979       $-2.12B

1978        $-1.61B

1977        $-1.29B

1976        $-1.01B

1975        $-1.01B

1974        $-0.33B-

1973        $0.03B

1972        $-0.14B

1971        $-0.29B

1970        $-0.27B

1969        $-0.32B

1968        $-0.33B-

1967        $-0.50B

1966        $-0.35B

1965        $-0.59B

1964        $-0.40B

1963        $-0.35B

1962        $-0.33B

1961        $-0.32B-

1960        $-0.23B

4. Banking Reform.

Looking at the balance sheet of any of the banks in Pakistan will reveal that banks are simply involved in an arbitrage game. They take low cost deposits and invest them in government borrowings and a smaller proportion of their assets are deployed in lending to the economic sectors. Lending is also largely to government entities or the very large private groups with the SME market largely ignored. 

A banking reform is badly needed where banks are given targets for lending into various economic sectors. Even in the United States banks are obligated to lend for say affordable housing (low cost housing) and there are severe penalties on banks who do not achieve those targets. While banks are the trustees of public deposits they also have an important economic function to fuel growth.

Political Complexions.

Since 1970s political prerogatives have cast the framework for experiments with the economy the burden of which have deeply affected the economy. Z.A. Bhutto's socialist experiment and mass nationalisation of industries and banks was not only a failure of gigantic proportions it set back the economy by decades. The war in Afghanistan during the Soviet occupation there plugged the balance of payments through US aid packages which was then followed by a merry go around of successive PPP and PMLN governments with a stint of military rule under General Musharraf. The PPP and PMLN economic planning was largely debt driven and creating structural inefficiencies as we saw in the power sector. 

The PTI economic model is not completely clear and this is perhaps because their economic team needs to be stronger. In what has been so far there is a broader approach to social and economic welfare and graduated reforms in some economic sectors. The expansion of the tax base and improving revenue collection are good first steps and need to be supported by a cohesive 5 year economic plan which would be important to monitor performance. 

While Pakistan economic problems seem massive and insurmountable there are solutions that are available. This economic map of recovery if implemented can reduce Pakistans reliance of debt financing, improve economic performance and provide monetary surplus for affecting social change. The important question to ask if there is the political will to go down this path which requires some tough decisions. 

Pakistan Army: Damned if they do and Damned if they don't!

 Being a cantonment rat because my father was in the army, throughout my life the din of army life was always present. Studying in Cadet College Petaro (yes Zardari and I were batch mates), the expectation was to join the army. However my father, who had an illustrious military career talked me out of it with the words, "you are too political to serve in the army". Through the tumultuous history of Pakistan we have had four military governments and through each civilian government the feeling has been that generals have been in the shadows. 

Relations between civilian governments and the military has been shaped by many factors, largely shaped by the perception of stability or lack of it and how it can develop into threats to the country. At other times divergences on national security issues ( Nawaz Sharif and General Musharraf) had resulted in military assuming power. At other times political interference in the affairs of the military as did Z. A Bhutto resulted in the rise of General Zia ul Haq, an officer who superseded more competent officer to rise at the top created conditions that affected civilian-military relationships. 

Today social media is flooded with people debating the role of the Army in the ouster of Imran Khan. Before assuming the office of PM Imran himself has stated that the army chief was neutral and not political, and today it seems his ardent supporters are talking of the betrayal of Imran by the army chief. For the record this seemed the second time in Pakistan history where the army has remained neutral (General Aslam Baig was the other). I support Imran and while I have not heard any comments, so far, from him blaming the army for his ouster, he has made snide references to traitors and turncoats which can be seen a wild broadsides to any and everyone. 

From what one can glean the army remained neutral through the whole saga of the non confidence motion and it all may have encouraged a final nudge after Imran had lost the vote. As a supporter of democracy one can only be satisfied that the army was not the kingmaker in this instance. As a supporter of Imran one feels wronged by the non confidence motion but that is a part of the parliamentary democracy. Party members change sides, for whatever reason, this is what democracy is about, and of there is or was a foreign conspiracy then there is a different forum to debate and deliberate in. 

In a country where almost every institution has been plagued with corruption, nepotism and divisiveness along ethnic and religious affiliations, the Pakistan army remains very different. It is the only institution where your ethnic and religious background do not matter. It remains the one body has has internal remained stable and provided the edifice of security in a country where direct and indirect threats are numerous. 

Indeed this is a different army from the one my father served in where certain norms of conduct were rigid. I never ever sat in my father official car and one time I asked his military batman to polish my shoes i was severely punished by my father with the words 'he is here to look after me, not you'. Perhaps today batman's in many military homes are used as personal servants of the whole house and no one may consider that wrong. There have been rumblings that some officers live beyond their means etc. etc. However there is a process to within the military code to bring such officers to task and as per military protocols this is not plastered in newspapers. 

One wants to see the military out of politics and thus when they have done so this time, we should not damn them for this role. By constitution the army is expected to stay out of politics and it has largely done so this time. Imran Khan would be in his right to blame his former alliance members and party members for being traitors to him and his party and were he to have enough members in the next assembly he can reform the constitution to deal with floor crossing and it would be within their rights to do so. 

While this piece may not find many friends on both sides of aisle, I do feel that at times we have to think of Pakistan first and then parties and individuals. We should not allow needless attacks on the role of the army when it has shown it can stand away from the political process as this plays into the hands of the enemies of Pakistan. There are ample professional soldiers in the Pakistan army who will continue the tradition of professionalism and shun politics and that is the continuity that Pakistan needs more than ever. 

In the same vein the Sharif government should not try and milk this situation by passing resolutions condemning Imran Khan and the PTI for alleged insults to the army. Certainly the PMLN is aware of its own castigation of the army during the Musharraf era, and it needs to concentrate on governance rather than immature politics. 

Indeed Imran Khan has created political awareness in droves of the youth who were apathetic towards politics and this is a good thing. He also bears the responsibility to guide these youth to positive change and not engage in an emotional narrative that defiles the one institution, the military, which was neutral and continues to provide the stability that is needed. These are delicate times for the country and many, including myself, hope that elections are held and this mess is cleared up. By the same token we need to be careful not to ignite emotions that can cost the country dearly.