In two weeks the fate of America’s democracy and the shape of its society will be decided. To say these are troubling times is an understatement and that the complexion of society is not only shaped now but a continuation of trends we have seen since 2016. Polarisation is to be expected in political societies but never has it been laced with hate, anger, disinformation and ethnic tensions as we see now. As much as this is a battle for votes and swing states, more importantly, it is the battle for the mind of Americans.
The challenges that will emerge from election result can be daunting and for America’s sake one hopes these challenges are minimal. It might be helpful to explore the outcomes and their consequences:
A Trump Victory.
Notwithstanding the polls, where a Trump defeat seems on the cards, Trump could spring a surprise like 2016, and win enough swing states to be re-elected. While this will mean a continuation of the way we have sen things in the past four years, a re-elected Trump will be vicious in his attacks on his detractors. He will take firmer control of the Republican Party moulding it closer to how he wants it to be, even pushing his relatives to secure their political future.
In the event a Trump victory is accompanied with a loss of the Senate then tensions between Congress and the White House will reach a crescendo. It is more likely that his extremist right wing supporters, including the militias, might well intimidate his detractors in the Senate. These groups may also see a Trump victory as a license to impose their own style of vigilante justice.
In a more broader level, a Trump victory will harden the lines of division within American society and result in further polarisation the cost of which will be borne by the average American on the street. Observe social media and you will see a form of anger and hate has crept into US political society that with every tweet, every angry profanity inflicts a wound on the social fibre that will be harder to heal. Will a Trump victory heal these wounds? Will his MAGA supporters be magnanimous in victory? Will race relations improve?
A Biden Victory.
A Biden victory may well be seen as a return to normalcy, especially if accompanied with a Democrat party hold over the Senate. However, over the past two months Trump has been setting the stage for disputing any election result that does not grant him victory. There is a suggestion that a landslide victory for Biden is the only way for Trump to peacefully concede the election, however this could well be wishful thinking.
If it is a close election then Trump will resort to the courts much like the Bush versus Gore election. Trumps hope remains that a Supreme Court with three of his appointees, all of whom were involved in the Bush-Gore case, could tilt the decision in his favour. However, this cannot be a forgone conclusion as judges cannot blatantly lean to a political agenda and judges have voted against what is expected often.
If we see a Biden landslide we may see Trump conceding, let’s say a 30% chance, but be assured he will still go to the courts. It is in his nature to litigate and will hope his base, many of whom are white supremacists, will agitate enough to make it more difficult for his successor. In this scenario his comment to the militias to “standby” assumes particular significance. A small curtain raiser was that two weeks after his standby comment a plot to kidnap a Democrat Governor was unearthed and linked to a white militia group.
We know Trump will not be a gracious loser and a nightmare scenario could well be him refusing to leave office and claim the whole election was fraudulent. It is not clear what mechanism exists to then force him to leave office as this has never been tested before. Yet there is confidence that sense might prevail and enough influence brought to bear on him to accept an overwhelming defeat. One cannot rule out that he may bargain a pardon in return for leaving office.
These are testing times for Americans and one can appreciate the emotion and passion we see. As painful as the anger and lack of respect for different political views exists one can only hope decency and the need to heal will prevail.
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