Kashmir and the Indo-China border dispute

As Indian and Chinese troops clashed along their disputed borders a jingoism emerged from New Delhi, at times reminding their audience that this is not 1962, when the Chinese army humiliated the Indian army. The fact remains that India has, under Modi's BJP government, stirred up border tensions not only with Pakistan, but Nepal and now China. The interesting element to the current escalation of border tensions with China is that Modi's government has managed to distract attention for the ongoing plight of the Kashmiri people in Indian Kashmir. 

 

Sino Indian border tensions are not new, and while the odd skirmish has taken place since the 1962 Indian humiliation, these have been more incidents rather than major military confrontations. What is different about the current tension is that ironically India’s abrogation of the special status of Indian Kashmir also changed the status of the Ladakh area that borders China. Beijing sees the change of status, from a geopolitical perspective, as India unilaterally asserting a resolution to their border issues with China. So long as the area was disputed between Indian, Pakistan and China, in varying claims over territories, China was willing to let the disputed status quo remain. However, India abrogating the special status of Kashmir and the adjoining areas presents a fait accompli that the Chinese may not be willing to accept.

 

Whether this border clash, that left a few dozen dead on each side, will broil over into a wider military confrontation is yet to be seen. Tensions are high and India must know its response scenario is limited to what they can do to the Chinese. Militarily the Chinese certainly have a upper edge and it is not certain if Indian appeals to Washington to pressure China to ease the tensions will work given that the Trump Administration does not have the same influence over Beijing as previous US administrations have had.

 

Prime Minister Modi has to walk the precipice with care. His recent statement that no Chinese troops entered India territory suggested that it might have been the Indian military that ventured unto the Chinese side thereby giving Beijing the moral high ground. In addition Modi has to understand that hard talking China does not work, he tried it with Pakistan and while to some extent the world may have given him an audience, in the case of China the influence and power of the Chinese far outweighs that of New Delhi.

 

However, in a more sinister manner, the whole issue of the border skirmish with China has taken attention away from the situation in Kashmir. The lockdown and the denial of movement and freedom of speech and assembly have now been in place for almost a year in Kashmir. Political leaders, while recently released have been muzzled and New Delhi is keen to move its settlement plans of changing the demographics of Indian Kashmir; much like Israel has done in the Palestinian lands. The world has been pretty much silent over all this and Modi has, to a major extent, got away with it.

 

For Indian Muslim Kashmiris the intent of the Indian government has been solely to redraw the historical realities of Kashmir and its people. In BJP eyes opening up to settlement of Kashmir by Indians, and mostly Hindus changes the demographics far enough to change the complexion of the Kashmir issue away from a Muslim populous seeking self determination to try and achieve Kashmiri integration into the Indian body politic based on a more balanced Hindu-Muslim demographic.

 

Alternatively PM Modi’s government can use the confrontation with China as a matter of national security and justify a larger presence of Indian troops in Kashmir and within that scenario enforce the demographic changes within Kashmir. If in the process India loses some territory to China as a result of a military conflict it will still be seen a small price to pay in comparison to enforcing New Delhi’s will in Kashmir.

 

While this is a gamble as in military conflicts outcomes are not always certain and China may just feel a wider occupation of the disputed area and its hinterlands is the best way to settle the score, Modi’s government cannot entirely de-escalate things on their own. China has been vocal is demanding a restoration of the special status of Kashmir (including Ladakh) and its clear that it sees root cause of the current tension as coming from New Delhi. Within India the hawks feel that a conflict with China may well not be as one sided as the Chinese would wish and point to the logistical challenge for China to mobilize at the Indian border.

 

All said and done the dispute is far from settled and it is likely that more skirmishes will occur. Its only a matter of time when one skirmish becomes more than just an incident. Until then one can only hope that better sense prevails in India and they step back from this new found nationalist jingoism and seek a quick and meaningful dialogue with China.