Pakistan: Beyond the Sad Soap Opera of Expectations.

 For an omniscient observer of Pakistani politics the ingredients of a soap opera are all present; the heroes, the villains, the king makers, the conspirators, the exiles and the list goes on. Your choice of casting the actors into each of the roles depends upon your political persuasion and the intensity of the narrative you spin is a matter of passion. This soap is played out best on the vast screen of the social media and the Pakistan diaspora assemble from Australia to the United States and Canada and ofcourse a good measure of Pakistanis from the land of the faithful. While there is a fair amount of venting, (which is good), some alleged access of 'reliable' sources, there is also a healthy portion of intelligent and immersive debate. Twitter Spaces is the venue of this 24/7 congregation and the quality of the discussion all boils down to the 'host' and the key participants. 

Indeed the social media space and the ensuing war there is being won by supporters of Imran Khan and PTI, and a fair amount of space is, rightfully or not, 'their' space. However, with patience and due search one finds some remarkable discussions from economics, to energy crisis to solutions for water scarcity and micro economic measures ensue. Once the political narrative is discarded the discussions are polite and informative. In a country burdened with the expectation of solutions these participants clearly have the intellectual capital to make a difference. A young Pakistani from Australia, for example, delivered perhaps the best explanation of Pakistan's economic challenges and possible steps to rectify things. Another young man was amazingly articulate in micro economic steps to develop and nurture a cheese industry with massive potential for export earnings. 

The mood and flow of the venting depends on the news of the day, yet some narratives remain the order of discussion each day. The role of the Army, the corruption in the country, the failure of the new coalition government, the injustice to Imran Khan, and the list goes one. On the other side, in small murmurs are the Sharif camp glorifying the Sharif brothers as if they were some bygone heavyweight boxing champions with a birthright to remain in the ring. Keeping with the tradition of politics they claim Imran Khan left them a mess and they are the only ones who can clean it up.

With a detached sense of observance one can sense a deep feeling of expectations. The expectation that one man will appear like the hero on a white horse and rid the world of evil. The irony that the rider does not ride alone and in the context of Pakistan not being alone might well mean having an army of two million supporters to make ones voice heard. Labels of 'traitor' as handed out all who don't agree and each side somehow feels the best argument for change is one of the blame game. 

However in all this noise some important truths do emerge; there is a massive agenda of vested interest, there is a possibility of election rigging, the current army head (General Bajwa) may not retire and by some customary trick still be relevant, the politicians facing corruption charges will get a 'get out of jail card', the judiciary has been selective in their 'justice' or the lack of it. These are truths or issues that should concern all Pakistani's irrespective of their political persuasion and need some discourse. 

Vested Interests:

Pakistan, like most countries, has vested interests embedded into their system of operations. The vested interests work to either create a conducive status quo or remove an action that works against the interests of such groups. Such groups range from business to political figures to government employees and the military. With the lack of transparency and accountability over the past 50 years or more these vested interests have felt a systemic protection exists to not expose them. The result is that compromised politics and governance become the order of the day rather than the exception. 

Election Rigging:

One doubts if ever an election was held in Pakistan where election rigging in one form or another did not exist. The scope and depth of the rigging has varied from election to election. The introduction of Electronic Voting Machines was clearly a step in the right direction to greatly minimise the possibility of rigging. However, it is also true that elections with high turn outs, like over 55-60% are difficult to rig entirely and ensure a 'fairer' outcome than elections with low turn outs. Public education and a better sense of the civic duty of citizens to vote are also key drivers to achieve a better turn out.

Extension of Army Chief's service.

We sometimes make decisions that come to haunt us. If the PTI camp believe that the chief of the military had a major role to play in the ouster of Imran Khan, then one should recall that in 2019 when the Supreme Court objected to the intended extension of the current chief (Gen Bajwa's) they went through considerable pain to get an amendment to the Pakistan Army Act of 1952, with an amendment to allow the extension of the term of Gen Bajwa. It would be very surprising of another extension can be granted by anyone. Further there is noise that he may seek a new hybrid role of 'Chief of Defence'. This is highly unlikely as there is no provision in the law to make such an appointment.

The Get out of Jail Card:

A large number of members of the current coalition government, which replaced Imran Khan, are either facing trials for corruption and other crimes and some are out on bail while they appeal the convictions. Irrespective of the bad optics of a government with 60% of its members out on bail, the fact remains one has to wonder how much of their political 'fight' to save Pakistan is really a fight to save themselves by having these judgements against them not only reversed but closed from further prosecution. This might also explain why the two main political parties that hated each others guts are aligned together today.

Selective Justice:

There is a general feeling that the judicial system has been selective in the dispensation of justice. Important cases are slowed down while critical cases are not accompanied with a detailed explanation which may be easy for the common man to understand. In addition some vital national interest matters, like the question of the Volume 10 disclosure on corruption and foreign assets, has been pending before the Supreme Court since 2017. A case of immense importance to transparency in Pakistan which would disclose vital information on all segments of Pakistani society and the related corruption!

In the backdrop of these truths is the expectation that a miracle will occur and we will walk into a new day with these ills all removed. Sadly its not that simple. There has to be a concerted effort for reforms which cover every branch of government, the judiciary, the economy and even the military establishment. These reforms should be triggered from the perspective of what is good for the country and we have a history of 70 years to tell us what is wrong; thus discovering what is good for the country should not be gigantic task. While a reasonable mind would feel Imran Khan has the cleaner record to bring about these reforms it will need a hard core team of the best professionals one can find, even if they are not of the same political colour we like to see.