Imran Khan and the Political Scene in Pakistan

 When Imran Khan's government was ousted in a vote of non confidence in April 2022 one thing was clear that a multitude of political and vested interests aligned to thwart any political comeback. While the non confidence vote in itself was by the book there was little doubt that there was a good deal of 'nudging' by various interest sections to ensure the outcome was his ouster. To say what followed was to be a test of Imran Khan's political acumen is an understatement. Now a year an half later the highly popular Khan is incarcerated in prison under a 3 year jail term, his party has been ploughed through leaving a shell which he cannot really rebuild while inside. Yet Imran's political journey is a repeat of Pakistan's sad political journey where every elected Prime Minister since 1970 has been jailed at least once. 

In a country where opposition to the government is immediately equated with being a traitor to the country it is not surprising that patriots in the true sense are hard to recognise and much less appreciate. There is also little denying that every leading political figure has, at some time or the other, had the benevolent hand of the establishment guiding their destiny. This was true to Nawaz Sharif, Benazir Bhutto, and even Imran Khan, while one may argue as to the extent of the support and guidance that each may have received. 

There was a significant difference in the emergence of Imran Khan as a political leader because it was achieved on the back of massive political following amongst the youth of the country. While his three plus years in office were not spectacular they were not a failure either. It would seem that while his PTI government was planning for a long stay at the wicket and planning accordingly the reality was that with a coalition government the innings could not be guaranteed to be a long one. Imran's style of leadership, largely focused around his own office and persona, did not create the infrastructure of a true political party. This is much like his rival PMLN and PPP which remain movements collected around a couple of individuals. Both rival parties have never had qualms about making special deals to either remain in power or to regain power. Khan and his PTI not only lack the wheeling and dealing experience of the other two but also didn't use its time in office to galvanise the small political pressure groups into their mantra. 

Imran and his PTI forged a message of a 'Naya (New) Pakistan' where by definition they were going to change the way things happen in Pakistan. Even proclaiming such a noble objective is likely to rile up vested interests in the country who have created, nourished and benefited from the set up that has been shaped over 75 years since Independence. In hindsight Imran chose a platform where he created more enemies that he could handle and prudence may have suggested a step by step approach to remedy the system. But given his age and the lack of political depth in his party Imran Khan was in a hurry to change things, and being in a hurry one is likely to make mistakes. 

Having been removed from office Imran Khan seemed to feel he can, single handedly, rewrite the political narrative in the country and 'force' a perfect storm where the government of the PDM (an alliance of 13 parties) would be forced to call elections. While in Jan 2022 the PTI government's popularity was waning on the back of inflation and weakening currency, his ouster surged his popularity to an unprecedented level. Ironically this surge in public following was perhaps the single most deciding factor for Imran's opponents to attempt to derail his political journey.

The events of the past 18 months are not a good reflection on Imran Khan's political acumen. In similar measure it has also be a unique insight into how the 'state' can treat its political opponents. Human rights violations, disappearance of journalists, and a crack down on political dissent is the order of the day. Nearly 200 criminal cases have been filed against Imran Khan, all of which cannot be substantive, with the aim of bogging him and his supporter down into a legal quick sand long enough to dismember his political party. 

One is often asked if Imran Khan could have handled things differently. Without the benefit of being in the driving seat one can only make suppositions, and they may well be off the mark in such an analysis. After losing the majority in the parliament Imran chose to boycott the National Assembly, perhaps a move that back fired as his opponents mustered a sham opposition group and continued about their business. In cricketing terms Imran Khan forgot that you cannot win a match by sitting in the stadium. Even when the umpires are not neutral, and the pitch is doctored against you, your team still has to play the game. (After all he did that against India in the series there). 

Thereafter the strategy seemed to be to appeal to the public and political rallies, and long marches became the order of the day. The show of force was at times impressive but it created two issues. The lack of immediate gains from these rallies, and the possibility of steam running out of the political fervour all suggested this was not going to be a quick resolution on the back of street power. The government of the 13 did what they do best, locked down on the media blanking out coverage of Khan and his political message. Imran felt that the peoples support was his biggest weapon, and to a large extent he is not wrong. However he did not use this support to capitalise in any negotiations he could have had with his opponents and the establishment. On the contrary there were no substantive negotiations and till this day each side blames the other for the absence of a dialogue. 

While national media was ordered to blank out Imran Khan the one thing they could not control was the social media. Undoubtedly the passionate support for Khan in the social media grew and continues till today. It perhaps remains the single most focused voice that emerges in favour of Imran Khan. However, as much as social media is an amazing tool it is also something that is not entirely understood and therefore very difficult, if not impossible, to control. So much so that PTI position holders also got carried away in their messaging as an aggressive and at times vile campaign emerged against anyone or any section of society that did not embrace the PTI narrative. After the first short period of arrest of Imran Khan on  May 9 2023, it was no surprise that the intended peaceful protests turned violent. It is unlikely that such violence, which the nation had seen many times before in its history, was personally directed by Imran Khan, but clearly this is one of the many cases he will have to face. 

It is evident that there is a concerted effort to not only discredit Imran Khan but also to disfranchise him from politics altogether. Notwithstanding the legal challenges that he faces, Khan's role in a political sense will not simply fade away. His political survival will not only depend upon the powers that be but also on how he plays his cards in the coming months. If elections are held between November and February next year then as things stand Imran may well not be in the race for office. However PTI, if organised fast enough, could fight the election on the back of Khan's popularity and have a suitable enough showing in a high turn out election to make them a factor in the future of Pakistan politics. On the other hand a low turn out election which are prone to riggings, may result in PTI being marginalised. 

Some may argue that Imran Khan has no need to reinvent himself in a political sense, and this may well be true. However, he will need to assess not only his tactics and strategy but also focus again on the organisation of his party. Empowered by the support of the younger generation he must focus on his next generation of party leadership and build the party from the bottom up. The test will be whether he will need 'electables' who are assured election victory due to caste, creed or local politics. If the traction he has gained in the past 18 months amongst the populous can be maintained then his direct or indirect presence on the political scene cannot be set aside. Unlike the Sharif family where inspite of Nawaz Sharif being disqualified and sentenced to jail there is a plethora of family members to continue their political presence, Imran does not have the same situation. This implies that Imran has to gravitate to the young wing of his party who had not abandoned him irrespective of the pressure on them to do so. 

Imran Khan will have, nevertheless, rethink his approach in a political comeback he is likely to make. The steps he would have to consider would broadly encompass the following:

• Rebuild the party at the grass root level.
• Bring in a new empowered leadership.
• Create a non partisan 'think tank' to plan key economic, political, legal and social reforms.
• Reset his relationship with the military establishment.
•  Recognise that in Pakistan large scale change can only be done in phases.
• Build a core of highly professional individuals who would be the essence of their governance should they win the election.
• Decentralise power from himself and empower a new cadre of leadership.

Perhaps the list can be a mile long but it is essential for Pakistan that the current polarisation is not conducive to the country. Each segment, including Imran Khan, has to play their part in bringing sanity to the system. One thing is clear that things cannot continue in the manner they have been conducted over the past seven decades. Clearly the one thing that Khan's presence has done, rightly or wrongly, given a voice to the youth who were unheard in the past. His party should not see them as a tool for electoral victory but empower them to be a positive influence in the country. 

On the flip side it would be naive to think that popular political leaders can be simply dissolved into the heap of history. One may argue that some of Khan's image may well be tarnished. While Imran's popularity is perhaps his best insurance to prevent the worst, it is also the biggest threat he poses to his opponents. Imran's maturity is what is on test as to how these assets are used to not only tone down the political conflict but to project that politics in Pakistan does not need to be a zero sum game. 

Pakistan's State of Affairs.

 In the midst of firing on Imran Khan, the selection of a new army chief, a plethora of cases in the superior Courts, and the Long March it would seem a perfect storm is brewing within the country. These events are all the more tragic in the back drop of the devastation of the recent floods and the sad state of the economy and yet many in the corridors of power seem apathetic to the situation. Were these events for real some of us may assume a well scripted soap opera is unfolding before us. Sadly this is not the case; we live in a nation where tragedies can only be measured against the enormity of the previous one we faced and somehow the senses become dead to the pain, the anguish and the sense of despair. 

Agree with Imran Khan or not, he seems to have jolted the collective conscious of the masses to at least think of the state of affairs. Whether the Long March he has called remains a platform of complaints or yields the election he wants to be held remains to be seen. Giving him the credit for what is due he has got the message across that he controls, for now, the street power. To those uncomfortable with this 'show of force' perhaps the only recourse would be a bullet, and that is what happened when his convoy was attacked and he sustained injuries. The modus operandi of the attack would seem to suggest that it was a tactic to create panic and fear and some sort of veiled warning to the Khan. 

Imran Khan, it would seem, does not scare easily and if anything it galvanised his support base to a frenzy of revenge, which he was quick to calm down. He knows well that civil strife on the streets is the very excuse his opponents want to crack their whips even harder. Yet the attack on Imran was close on the heels a the tragic murder of a well respected journalist Arshad Shareef in Kenya. Between the Kenyan authorities and the Pakistan government the whole matter has been botched such a degree that any impartial investigation into the murder becomes more remote by the day. This is hardly surprising as in Pakistan since 1995 over 97 journalists have been murdered and only in one of those deaths did the investigation yield any results. 

Meanwhile the country's superior courts have been inundated with a variety of cases during the past four to five months. Many of these cases have references related to the Constitution of the country and others are matters of restoration or protection of rights. By and large the decisions that have come out have been fair and it is expected that not all parties would be totally satisfied. We as a nation still have to understand that the Constitution is only a thin legal fabric over the body politic of the nation and through that cloth it will always beg for the Constitution to be modified to keep up with the times. On the other hand in a nation of 220 million it puts enormous pressure on 3 or 5 justices of the Court to be the only ones to uphold the laws of the country. A testimony to many that all other institutions seem to have forgotten their oath to uphold the law and the Constitution!

After much speculation and rumour it finally emerges that at the end of the month the incumbent Chief of Army Staff shall retire. While one can argue whether the current Prime Minister, Shahbaz Shareef, has the sole right to decide upon the new army chief, given that he is the incumbent, the whole process through which the incumbent Prime Minister is approaching this is bizarre. He has made no secret of the fact that he has been consulting his elder brother, a former PM and a convicted absconder, on the choice of the new appointment. If that was not enough during these consultations a diplomatic passport was also slipped through to the former PM? These brazen acts of defiance of the laws of Pakistan by a sitting Prime Minister are a precedent that cannot sit well with those of us who have a few ounces of grey matter between our ears. 

As these lines are being penned down there is noise by some government parliamentarians to take Imran Khan to task for 'wrong[y accusing the US for his regime change' because Imran Khan recently said he has 'put the incident behind him'. It is interesting that these parliamentarians are quick to jump to the defence of the US but remain silent on castigating the Kenyan government for the murder of one of the nations most upright journalists. 

Indeed these a troubled times for Pakistan and the polarisation between the political camps is immense. As much as it is the right of Imran Khan to have a protest march, he must also be aware that the election may just happen in the middle of next year. Having shown his street muscle he may have to tack a new course of political moves to maintain his political pull within the nation. it might well be a good time to take steps to move his PTI from a movement to a true political party and to make plans for not only the elections but the reforms that are so essential in the country.

Pakistan: Beyond the Sad Soap Opera of Expectations.

 For an omniscient observer of Pakistani politics the ingredients of a soap opera are all present; the heroes, the villains, the king makers, the conspirators, the exiles and the list goes on. Your choice of casting the actors into each of the roles depends upon your political persuasion and the intensity of the narrative you spin is a matter of passion. This soap is played out best on the vast screen of the social media and the Pakistan diaspora assemble from Australia to the United States and Canada and ofcourse a good measure of Pakistanis from the land of the faithful. While there is a fair amount of venting, (which is good), some alleged access of 'reliable' sources, there is also a healthy portion of intelligent and immersive debate. Twitter Spaces is the venue of this 24/7 congregation and the quality of the discussion all boils down to the 'host' and the key participants. 

Indeed the social media space and the ensuing war there is being won by supporters of Imran Khan and PTI, and a fair amount of space is, rightfully or not, 'their' space. However, with patience and due search one finds some remarkable discussions from economics, to energy crisis to solutions for water scarcity and micro economic measures ensue. Once the political narrative is discarded the discussions are polite and informative. In a country burdened with the expectation of solutions these participants clearly have the intellectual capital to make a difference. A young Pakistani from Australia, for example, delivered perhaps the best explanation of Pakistan's economic challenges and possible steps to rectify things. Another young man was amazingly articulate in micro economic steps to develop and nurture a cheese industry with massive potential for export earnings. 

The mood and flow of the venting depends on the news of the day, yet some narratives remain the order of discussion each day. The role of the Army, the corruption in the country, the failure of the new coalition government, the injustice to Imran Khan, and the list goes one. On the other side, in small murmurs are the Sharif camp glorifying the Sharif brothers as if they were some bygone heavyweight boxing champions with a birthright to remain in the ring. Keeping with the tradition of politics they claim Imran Khan left them a mess and they are the only ones who can clean it up.

With a detached sense of observance one can sense a deep feeling of expectations. The expectation that one man will appear like the hero on a white horse and rid the world of evil. The irony that the rider does not ride alone and in the context of Pakistan not being alone might well mean having an army of two million supporters to make ones voice heard. Labels of 'traitor' as handed out all who don't agree and each side somehow feels the best argument for change is one of the blame game. 

However in all this noise some important truths do emerge; there is a massive agenda of vested interest, there is a possibility of election rigging, the current army head (General Bajwa) may not retire and by some customary trick still be relevant, the politicians facing corruption charges will get a 'get out of jail card', the judiciary has been selective in their 'justice' or the lack of it. These are truths or issues that should concern all Pakistani's irrespective of their political persuasion and need some discourse. 

Vested Interests:

Pakistan, like most countries, has vested interests embedded into their system of operations. The vested interests work to either create a conducive status quo or remove an action that works against the interests of such groups. Such groups range from business to political figures to government employees and the military. With the lack of transparency and accountability over the past 50 years or more these vested interests have felt a systemic protection exists to not expose them. The result is that compromised politics and governance become the order of the day rather than the exception. 

Election Rigging:

One doubts if ever an election was held in Pakistan where election rigging in one form or another did not exist. The scope and depth of the rigging has varied from election to election. The introduction of Electronic Voting Machines was clearly a step in the right direction to greatly minimise the possibility of rigging. However, it is also true that elections with high turn outs, like over 55-60% are difficult to rig entirely and ensure a 'fairer' outcome than elections with low turn outs. Public education and a better sense of the civic duty of citizens to vote are also key drivers to achieve a better turn out.

Extension of Army Chief's service.

We sometimes make decisions that come to haunt us. If the PTI camp believe that the chief of the military had a major role to play in the ouster of Imran Khan, then one should recall that in 2019 when the Supreme Court objected to the intended extension of the current chief (Gen Bajwa's) they went through considerable pain to get an amendment to the Pakistan Army Act of 1952, with an amendment to allow the extension of the term of Gen Bajwa. It would be very surprising of another extension can be granted by anyone. Further there is noise that he may seek a new hybrid role of 'Chief of Defence'. This is highly unlikely as there is no provision in the law to make such an appointment.

The Get out of Jail Card:

A large number of members of the current coalition government, which replaced Imran Khan, are either facing trials for corruption and other crimes and some are out on bail while they appeal the convictions. Irrespective of the bad optics of a government with 60% of its members out on bail, the fact remains one has to wonder how much of their political 'fight' to save Pakistan is really a fight to save themselves by having these judgements against them not only reversed but closed from further prosecution. This might also explain why the two main political parties that hated each others guts are aligned together today.

Selective Justice:

There is a general feeling that the judicial system has been selective in the dispensation of justice. Important cases are slowed down while critical cases are not accompanied with a detailed explanation which may be easy for the common man to understand. In addition some vital national interest matters, like the question of the Volume 10 disclosure on corruption and foreign assets, has been pending before the Supreme Court since 2017. A case of immense importance to transparency in Pakistan which would disclose vital information on all segments of Pakistani society and the related corruption!

In the backdrop of these truths is the expectation that a miracle will occur and we will walk into a new day with these ills all removed. Sadly its not that simple. There has to be a concerted effort for reforms which cover every branch of government, the judiciary, the economy and even the military establishment. These reforms should be triggered from the perspective of what is good for the country and we have a history of 70 years to tell us what is wrong; thus discovering what is good for the country should not be gigantic task. While a reasonable mind would feel Imran Khan has the cleaner record to bring about these reforms it will need a hard core team of the best professionals one can find, even if they are not of the same political colour we like to see. 

Pakistan: Mapping an Economic Recovery.

 In a politically charged country having a sensible discussion on the economy is fraught with frustration. The political narrative deceptively disguises a combination of economic mismanagement and/or inaction the result of which is an anaemic economy. Talk of an economic default is common, and with it comes the weight of the blame game. Add to this cocktail endemic corruption, especially by the political leadership of the past and the result is not comforting. 

The PTI government of Imran Khan was seen as a possibility to steer the economic ship to calmer waters and in some areas success was seen. Two of their major achievements are increasing the tax base from 1.14 million tax payers to 2.4 million and to improve electric bill collection by 157%. Concerted efforts to address the trade balance did occur during their government with cutting imports from $63 billion in 2018 to $46 billion in 2020. During the same period exports fell from $26.22 billion in 2018 to $25.26 billion (largely affected by COVID). 

The PTI government inherited foreign exchange reserves of around $16 billion in mid 2018. In March 2022, around the time of the ouster of the Imran Khan government, the reserves were $22.4 billion, which then in first week of April (as the non confidence motion was going on) declined to $17.3 billion on account of $2.9 billion in debt repayment ($2.4 b alone to SAFE of China) and drop in home remittances from mid March 2022 to end of April 2022.  In reality in the period 2010 to 2022 Pakistan foreign exchange reserves have ranged from a low of $13 billion to a high of $28 billion (August 2021 on account of fresh loan disbursements). 

On the other hand the trade balance of Pakistan has been deteriorating over the past 10 years. This is largely due to stagnant exports and mushrooming exports. In addition internal structural economic inefficiencies in the power generation sector and the gas sector have added a huge burden to successive governments. In fairness to the PTI government they survived the stormy waters of the COVID 19 impact while registering below single digit growth, the more adverse damage was avoided. In 2021 we saw a buoyant growth in GDP and it would auger that some fundamentals at the macro level could have been turning positive. 

Looking back at the economic indicators and numbers can go only so far in a country of 230 million people where poverty and debt defaults are the topic of discussion on an everyday basis. Mapping Pakistan's economic recovery requires to consider a 10 year economic plan. While the intent to reduce the $130 billion debt burden is a cliched slogan one is inclined to believe that solutions are either not being focused upon or the political will to deal with these issues is absent. The issues being listed below not only need economic policy commitments to correct the situation but also need to consider a plethora of while social and administrative changes in the way the country works, (or does not work). 

Major Issues.

1. Circular Debt.

In short circular debt is a accumulation of unpaid subsidies on the electric power generation in the country and it is raised to finance the distribution companies who have to pay the power generation companies. In normal circumstances the circular debt would simply be the funding required to plug the gap between the power bill and the collection of bills from consumers. However, successive governments have subsidised power in multiple ways; either by incentives to power generation companies by paying them a higher tariff (PPP and PMLN governments) or by paying a subsidy on account of the consumers (PTI). The historical problems of the energy sector were covered in an earlier blog https://aqsher.blogspot.com/2021/11/pakistans-energy-sector-historical.html?m=1 so will not go into it much here.

The effect of this is that Pakistans financial system carriers a massive circular debt which in 2018 was PkRs 1.14 trillion and in April 2022 was PkRs 2.3 trillion. This increase was on account of the power subsidy from the PTI government (Rs 404 billion) and around RS 660 billion of subsidies to power producers plus the interest impact with such debt costing as high as 13% (and rising).  This circular debt is almost entirely held by domestic banks and is currently at $11.5 billion (Rs 2.3 trillion). How to reform the power sector and reduce this circular debt has to be a priority and have been dealt with in detail in the mentioned blog. However to summarise the following steps needs to be taken urgently.

a. Develop more efficient and cheaper power generation capacity to replace the expensive and inefficient power plants (which are subsidised through the agreements of the past). With new capacity the need for subsidy will go and older plants will either be phased out or power generators will have to come into line with new tariffs.

b. Improve the consumer electric billings collection. It is estimated that about 20-30% of consumer bills are unpaid or seriously delayed and about 12-15% of power is stolen from transmission lines. In 3 years it is estimated that the PTI government did improve bill collection by Rs 190 billion, and this needs to be continued and extended to government entities who are chronic defaulters in their bill payments.

c. The aim of the above measures should aim to reduce the circular debt by $2 billion a year after a two year implementation period, thus implying that in 6-7 years this $11.5 billion debt will be settled bringing much needed liquidity and confidence to the financial system.

d. Reform the gas energy generation sector where inefficiencies are chronic. For instance Pakistan loses gas worth roughly $4 billion a year through what is called Unaccounted For Gas (UFG). This is gas that escapes the transmission system through methane emissions and leakages. It is estimated that fixing this problem will cost $500 million and it would provide $4 billion of revenue a year!

2. Economic impact of corruption.

It is estimated that corruption within Pakistan costs the economy PkRs 7 billion (US$31 million) per day! That is over $12 billion a year of adverse economic impact on the economy. This is corruption at all levels, largely politically sanctioned and in many cases institutional at district level, police, judiciary and various government offices. Imran Khan has talked of a crusade against corruption and often has talked of stolen money being returned to Pakistan from abroad but there need to be steps taken to deal with the situation within the country too. 

A credible system of accountability and justice needs to be created which is not politicised by any party. Once public figures are being investigated or facing the judicial system any comment by political figures should be avoided as it plays into the political victimisation narrative. Reforms need to be considered where people who are being investigated should step aside from public and government positions. Currently there is no oversight of the judicial system for corruption and there needs to be some reform in this respect too.  As is known there is a military judicial system within the military establishments of the country and it should be considered that from time to time the military disclose actions that are taken against military personnel who have broken the law. This is a transparency all sections of the government need. 

Imagine if corruption can be reduced by 50% that will mean $6 billion more money into the system which is ten years could cut our external debt by 50%!

3. Focus on Exports.

One does not need to be an economic rocket scientist to know that positioning the economy to have more exports than imports is the best way to improve the lot of the country and the people. Since 1960 Pakistan has only had a few odd years where our exports were more than our imports, (trade surplus), and the trade deficit has been chronically rising year on year. There is an argument that this is largely on account of rising import costs for fuel and gas, which may partially be correct, but there is not doubt that export performance has been very weak. 

A concerted and well thought out policy and plan for boosting exports needs to be implemented. Incentives for exports and extension of banking credit to be made available for exporters. This is the most vital part of the economy that needs to be seriously overhauled. 

Pakistan Trade Balance - Historical Data

Year        Billions of US $.       

2020.        $-18.60B

2019        $-28.38B

2018        $-34.92B

2017        $-28.44B

2016        $-19.55B

2015         $-17.44B

2014        $-15.68B

2013        $-15.67B

2012        $-17.98B

2011        $-10.69B

2010        $-10.34B

2009        $-12.24B    

2008        $-18.42B

2007        $-10.00B

2006        $-10.18B    

2005        $-4.24B

2004        $1.01B

2003        $0.49B

2002        $-0.07B

2001        $-0.76B

2000        $-0.92B

1999        $-1.02B

1998        $-0.65B-

1997        $-2.93B

1996        $-2.86B

1995        $-1.64B

1994        $-1.43B

1993        $-3.16B

1992        $-1.54B

1991        $-0.71B

1990        $-2.18B

1989        $-2.52B

1988        $-2.14B

1987        $-1.76B

1986        $-2.49B

1985        $-3.75B

1984        $-3.29B

1983        $-2.96B

1982        $-3.36B

1981        $-2.67B

1980        $-2.53B

1979       $-2.12B

1978        $-1.61B

1977        $-1.29B

1976        $-1.01B

1975        $-1.01B

1974        $-0.33B-

1973        $0.03B

1972        $-0.14B

1971        $-0.29B

1970        $-0.27B

1969        $-0.32B

1968        $-0.33B-

1967        $-0.50B

1966        $-0.35B

1965        $-0.59B

1964        $-0.40B

1963        $-0.35B

1962        $-0.33B

1961        $-0.32B-

1960        $-0.23B

4. Banking Reform.

Looking at the balance sheet of any of the banks in Pakistan will reveal that banks are simply involved in an arbitrage game. They take low cost deposits and invest them in government borrowings and a smaller proportion of their assets are deployed in lending to the economic sectors. Lending is also largely to government entities or the very large private groups with the SME market largely ignored. 

A banking reform is badly needed where banks are given targets for lending into various economic sectors. Even in the United States banks are obligated to lend for say affordable housing (low cost housing) and there are severe penalties on banks who do not achieve those targets. While banks are the trustees of public deposits they also have an important economic function to fuel growth.

Political Complexions.

Since 1970s political prerogatives have cast the framework for experiments with the economy the burden of which have deeply affected the economy. Z.A. Bhutto's socialist experiment and mass nationalisation of industries and banks was not only a failure of gigantic proportions it set back the economy by decades. The war in Afghanistan during the Soviet occupation there plugged the balance of payments through US aid packages which was then followed by a merry go around of successive PPP and PMLN governments with a stint of military rule under General Musharraf. The PPP and PMLN economic planning was largely debt driven and creating structural inefficiencies as we saw in the power sector. 

The PTI economic model is not completely clear and this is perhaps because their economic team needs to be stronger. In what has been so far there is a broader approach to social and economic welfare and graduated reforms in some economic sectors. The expansion of the tax base and improving revenue collection are good first steps and need to be supported by a cohesive 5 year economic plan which would be important to monitor performance. 

While Pakistan economic problems seem massive and insurmountable there are solutions that are available. This economic map of recovery if implemented can reduce Pakistans reliance of debt financing, improve economic performance and provide monetary surplus for affecting social change. The important question to ask if there is the political will to go down this path which requires some tough decisions. 

Pakistan Army: Damned if they do and Damned if they don't!

 Being a cantonment rat because my father was in the army, throughout my life the din of army life was always present. Studying in Cadet College Petaro (yes Zardari and I were batch mates), the expectation was to join the army. However my father, who had an illustrious military career talked me out of it with the words, "you are too political to serve in the army". Through the tumultuous history of Pakistan we have had four military governments and through each civilian government the feeling has been that generals have been in the shadows. 

Relations between civilian governments and the military has been shaped by many factors, largely shaped by the perception of stability or lack of it and how it can develop into threats to the country. At other times divergences on national security issues ( Nawaz Sharif and General Musharraf) had resulted in military assuming power. At other times political interference in the affairs of the military as did Z. A Bhutto resulted in the rise of General Zia ul Haq, an officer who superseded more competent officer to rise at the top created conditions that affected civilian-military relationships. 

Today social media is flooded with people debating the role of the Army in the ouster of Imran Khan. Before assuming the office of PM Imran himself has stated that the army chief was neutral and not political, and today it seems his ardent supporters are talking of the betrayal of Imran by the army chief. For the record this seemed the second time in Pakistan history where the army has remained neutral (General Aslam Baig was the other). I support Imran and while I have not heard any comments, so far, from him blaming the army for his ouster, he has made snide references to traitors and turncoats which can be seen a wild broadsides to any and everyone. 

From what one can glean the army remained neutral through the whole saga of the non confidence motion and it all may have encouraged a final nudge after Imran had lost the vote. As a supporter of democracy one can only be satisfied that the army was not the kingmaker in this instance. As a supporter of Imran one feels wronged by the non confidence motion but that is a part of the parliamentary democracy. Party members change sides, for whatever reason, this is what democracy is about, and of there is or was a foreign conspiracy then there is a different forum to debate and deliberate in. 

In a country where almost every institution has been plagued with corruption, nepotism and divisiveness along ethnic and religious affiliations, the Pakistan army remains very different. It is the only institution where your ethnic and religious background do not matter. It remains the one body has has internal remained stable and provided the edifice of security in a country where direct and indirect threats are numerous. 

Indeed this is a different army from the one my father served in where certain norms of conduct were rigid. I never ever sat in my father official car and one time I asked his military batman to polish my shoes i was severely punished by my father with the words 'he is here to look after me, not you'. Perhaps today batman's in many military homes are used as personal servants of the whole house and no one may consider that wrong. There have been rumblings that some officers live beyond their means etc. etc. However there is a process to within the military code to bring such officers to task and as per military protocols this is not plastered in newspapers. 

One wants to see the military out of politics and thus when they have done so this time, we should not damn them for this role. By constitution the army is expected to stay out of politics and it has largely done so this time. Imran Khan would be in his right to blame his former alliance members and party members for being traitors to him and his party and were he to have enough members in the next assembly he can reform the constitution to deal with floor crossing and it would be within their rights to do so. 

While this piece may not find many friends on both sides of aisle, I do feel that at times we have to think of Pakistan first and then parties and individuals. We should not allow needless attacks on the role of the army when it has shown it can stand away from the political process as this plays into the hands of the enemies of Pakistan. There are ample professional soldiers in the Pakistan army who will continue the tradition of professionalism and shun politics and that is the continuity that Pakistan needs more than ever. 

In the same vein the Sharif government should not try and milk this situation by passing resolutions condemning Imran Khan and the PTI for alleged insults to the army. Certainly the PMLN is aware of its own castigation of the army during the Musharraf era, and it needs to concentrate on governance rather than immature politics. 

Indeed Imran Khan has created political awareness in droves of the youth who were apathetic towards politics and this is a good thing. He also bears the responsibility to guide these youth to positive change and not engage in an emotional narrative that defiles the one institution, the military, which was neutral and continues to provide the stability that is needed. These are delicate times for the country and many, including myself, hope that elections are held and this mess is cleared up. By the same token we need to be careful not to ignite emotions that can cost the country dearly. 

Pakistan PM speech: A breath of fresh air.

Imran Khan's first speech as Prime Minister was less a speech than a sincere talk across the table. No pre-written speech, just a few pages of notes and a delivery that would make even his skeptics applaud him for being long on ambition and sincerity. If there was anything lacking in the speech it was little reference to Balochistan, the protection of women, the protecting of minorities and upholding the tenants of a free press. But then in a speech which dealt with issues of malnutrition in children to economics there was much to chew on for the observer.

If one was to chart the social impact of political leaders of Pakistan then one can clearly say Imran set the tone for a social economic agenda than simply a political agenda. Mr Jinnah. the founder of the nation, on August 1947 spoke of a vision of Pakistan, a speech much forgotten in the shrouds of intolerance (covered in my previous blogs), and now Imran has touched a nerve with the people of Pakistan and his words have to be seen as a sincere demand for change, and change to which he and his government will be held accountable. In 1968, Zulfikar Ali Bhutto in his 'roti, kapra, makkan', (food, clothing and housing) for all speech for the first time spoke of the down trodden and the unheard majority of the country. His attempt at democratic socialism and nationalism was at best a failure, but give him the credit for an inclusive social agenda that set the stage to which now Imran Khan has stepped up.

The take away from the speech is positive, asking for change in education, governance, judicial responsibility, accountability, and most of all creating a paradigm shift in not one aspect of Pakistani society but pretty much across the board. The key question is how his agenda of change will be funded as he inherits a State Treasury which is bare, a debt burden that every month sinks the nation further down the tube. It would seem his initial internal economic emphasis is on broadening the tax base through better collection, routing out corruption which has been rampant, and bringing economic changes at the grass root level all coupled with an austerity drive that is indeed praise worthy.

Converting the Prime Ministers house to a university of excellence indicate more than anything that the lavishness of 524 staff is what he does not need. Though I would have suggested that converting it into an All suites 6 star hotel would be more profitable for the nation. I do believe that in respect of life style he has always been pretty down to earth, and is not one who loves money for himself. The biggest challenge will be taming the bureaucracy which has always been the worm inside the government to weakens its agenda. Apart from the curse of nepotism it is a machine which is slow to change and some hard decisions will be needed in reorganizing the civil service.

With provincial governments in two provinces the PTI agenda of change will be limited in its enforcement in both Sindh and Balochistan. While he has indicated he would work with the leadership of those provinces on reforms to the police and local civil service it will have its share of frustrations. I would like to believe improvements in the provinces they control will bring about some urgency in the other two provinces to follow suit. I was particularly pleased that while he took a broad swipe at corruption and corrupt political leaders his speech was tame in terms of attacks on the opposition.

We can sit back and cynically dismiss his ambitious agenda as nothing short of what General Musharraf promised, but then there is an essential difference, the general did not have a peoples mandate to live up to. There has been criticism also about his choice of the cabinet as some of the ministers had served under the general; however I do feel this is a start and I would not be surprised that there would be changes mid way in his tenure. His team building skills are well known as indeed his impatience with under performing members usually results in a change.

The way I see it, if Imran Khan and his new government can deliver even 30-40% of his agenda he would have done more for the country than the 21 Prime Ministers before him. He will have to learn to be open to accepting his failures, however small they may be, as challenges that failed and acknowledge them and move to a new path to achieve the same aims. However, the ground swell of expectations he has created is also accompanied by the enthusiasm of people willing to change and be facilitators of change. Many who voted for him actually did so with the view that the two other parties have been given five chances between them to change things and perhaps its time to try something new. This speech seemed to suggest to them that at least in terms of the talk he has done his bit, now people will want to see him walk the talk. The first steps he has taken within the first two days as Prime Minister its clear that he will walk the talk and that too more boldly than many would be prepared for. But then this snowball of change will continue to roll with its momentum and Imran's first task of getting it rolling has started.

Imran Khan: Prime Minister with an economic mountain to climb.

Imran has finally done it, and congratulations to him, and it reminds me of the long discussion he and one of his close banker friends from New York and myself had in my hotel room in Dubai back in 1996 before he took a flight back to announce his entry into politics. I remember arguing that he should not join politics but become the 'Ralph Nader' of Pakistan; to be a socially prominent Pakistani questioning the governance of the country from the outside. I told him our politics is dirty and jumping into it will drown good people into the filth. He said then, 'sometimes one has to step into the gutter to clean it'.

Imran Khan, kudos to him, not only jumped into the gutter to clean it, but also aroused the passion of a nation that the only way forward is a new Pakistan. Yes we as people always reinvent ourselves, its the one wave of emotions that instils the hope that things will not only change but will be new. His social agenda aside, the biggest obstacle, and one that can derail the promise of a new Pakistan, is going to be the horrible state of the economy in the country.

Nawaz Shareef's government has left the coffers of the country empty, a mountain of debt that needs restructuring and emergency financing to keep things going. Yes Pakistan will have to knock on the doors of the IMF yet again, and bilateral assistance from friendly countries may reduce the size of the begging bowl it will not eliminate it. The critical issue will be the long term fix that is needed in the country, and yes educating the work force to become more productive and investment in science and a better industrial base are sound policies but they will bear fruit over the longer term. Some measures have to be taken immediately for the country to get back on its feet. While insurmountable its not impossible. Here are a few suggestions.

1. Revenue Improvement.

Tax evasion and leakage of government revenues are one of the most chronic issues facing the economy. A few years ago it was estimated that 35% of the total electric power produced in the country was stolen by consumers or important political figures just did not pay the bills. In addition the tax collection, while improving, was still inefficient and in some areas even corrupt.Immediate reform of the tax system and the revenue collection improvement should be done within the first 100 days. This should start from the top and all members of Parliament should set the example of settling their bills.

2. Circular Debt.

One of the most damaging legacies of the three PML(N) and two PPP governments has been that they allowed circular debt to increase to astronomical levels. The primary reasons for this circular debt are the miss pricing of the power rates between suppliers and consumers (in addition to the subsidies) and the non collection of the revenue from key large consumers of power. The miss pricing adds about 12% of the total power bill to the circular debt and there is in general a 30% short collection from consumers. This huge gap is then financed from commercial banks against state guarantees thus adding to the national debt and weakens the financial system.

My suggestion would be to create a new power utility company, all miss priced utility supply contracts where private power providers were given 20-30% return on equity through favorable pricing should be renegotiated and/or phased out. No power company in the world has such guaranteed returns. The circular debt should then be restructured along new arrangements and a portion of the revenue collection improvement to be allocated to pay this debt off. As of now say the 30% leakage of revenue is totally plugged then 10% of this revenue is used to pay off the circular debt.

3. Boosting Exports.

A national strategy for boosting exports should be put into place. Economic zones, with tax holidays and incentives be created and seek to bring in companies from China, Japan and other areas who wish to create export based industries. This coupled with improvements in the work force, bringing law and order into the country would be a positive step. Value added exports should be seen as a priority rather than simply exporting minerals and agricultural produce.

4. Expenditure control and Enterprise Philosophy.

While Imran Khan seems to suggest a drive towards austerity, there has to be broad acceptance of this philosophy through the rank and file of the government. A more proactive foreign policy and a normalization of relations with India and Afghanistan might also augur in an era of reducing defense expenditures. While unions are preventing a major over all of large organizations like PIA and the Railway, there has to be either a dogged determination to make these companies efficient, or to simply allow new companies to be created which are lean in operating costs and more enterprise oriented.


While this is a broad brush approach to what is fundamentally a major and chronic problem for Pakistan, what needs to be understood is that for the PTI government to achieve this there has to be a clear focus between short term and urgent measures and long term systemic changes. Education and health care and job creation have to be considered fundamental to the longer changes needed but without addressing the urgent short term actions needed a long term strategy will be doomed to failure.

A key corner stone of the policy has to be accountability and for this there has to be stronger regulation and more powers to the State Bank of Pakistan. PTI is runs the risk that PPP had in the 1970s when they over promised the people and to meet those promises printing money was seen as a necessary evil resulting in inflation and with industries nationalized a weak economic performance. The electorate who so passionately rallied to the call of a New Pakistan also have to be patient that a New Pakistan cannot be created in a microwave in seconds. There are going to be serious challenges ahead of this government on the economic side and clarity of policy and purpose will be a useful tool to have.

Is Imran Khan a military stooge? Myth or Reality!

Of late US media and Indian media has been flooded with articles and opinions asserting that Imran Khan, the newly elected Prime Minister of Pakistan is supported by the military and his election is a staged event. At the outset we should appreciate that this is the second election conducted in Pakistan where power transfers from one civilian government to another through a process of elections. While we may argue the legitimacy of election being fair, it is not proven that rigging was on a massive scale. Without going into massive detail on that point just the fact that the press has pointed to ballot boxes with votes discarded outside polling stations as proof of rigging, people don't stop to notice that the photos show the votes paper to be 'white' while this election national assembly votes were cast on green paper!

Perhaps Pakistan and Turkey rank as the two countries where military governments and/or influence from the military in politics has been the highest in their history. The military has, historically, nurtured political figures; Bhutto post 1970 election, Nawaz Sharif by General Zia, and many others. Sadly the performance of elected governments has been so terrible that the people have generally looked to the military as the only institution that can provide stability. Yet after the two long reigns of General Zia and General Musharraff, subsequent heads of the military have taken pains to encourage the political process to gain roots and is borne out by the 2013 and 2018 elections.

It would be fair to say that the military within Pakistan, while protective of their own franchise, also have little wish to be directly in power. They are aware that Generals Yayha, Zia and Musharaf, eroded the standing of the military within the country. The emergence of a stable political process is still far from there and it is amusing that one leader of a political party who could not even secure 6 seats out 272 is calling for agitation on the streets. There is a need for the parties to look beyond this and accept the results and allow a government to be formed and then work within the parliament towards their agenda. This is the hallmark of a democracy and it needs to be understood with maturity.


To insinuate that the military would have chosen Imran Khan is stretching the conspiracy theory a bit too far and basically assuming that 100 million plus voters of which 55% voted are all sheep who will do what they are told. Yes there can be no denying that the military may well prefer to see a certain political figure succeed rather than someone else, but to assume that they would rig the election to that extent is really not possible. One could argue that Nawaz Sharif, a creation of the military, especially the Zia frame of mind military, would have always been the choice even though his spate with Musharraf and his ouster by the latter might have lost him favor with the military, he would have been a more known choice than anyone new.

Imran Khan in  a sense will be a more difficult political figure for the army to control should they not see eye to eye with each other, and I am sure the military would have assessed that too. Secondly, in a country were not one political leader can come clean on the issue of their financial impropriety Khan has a clean record in this respect. His appeal to the younger generation is also a key factor that can stir them away from the politics of the militant political groups. Finally, Imran Khan seems to talk the talk in matter of foreign policy and restoring the status and economic welfare of the country.

The army from their assessment must clearly also see, like people have seen, that he is perhaps the best of the current lot of political figures to give a sense of direction to the country. Much like Nawaz Sharif's government had their tacit support any new civilian government should be seen to also have the military support. After all given the corruption cases going on in the courts if the army wished they could have taken over and not done a charade of an election to install 'their' man! After all it has happened before. Given the crisis in the last government the military, supported by the judiciary, could have imposed a national coalition government especially as it was evident that the scandals being unearthed were of a magnitude that brought into question key political figures.

Powerful institutions in democracies have a view on political affairs, this is even normal to the US and even India. General Manekshaw often expressed his views to Mrs Indira Ghandi especially on the matter of East Pakistan, now Bangladesh and some even suggest decided on the scope and timing of the action that India took. We have to recognize that two elections do not make a complete democracy and the military has to show it will support civilian governments and the political parties have to show they are mature to govern also.

Imran Khan and the military have to develop a trusting relationship and if he does hold democratic principles in high regard and runs a clean government that performs to its agenda then Pakistan as a whole will benefit. If this means he is a stooge of the military then one can argue he would be a better stooge than those who were installed by the military in the past. I personally doubt that Imran Khan, knowing him as little as I do, would so easily be malleable to pressure. I may not entirely agree with many of his political statements and while I sincerely hope for the sake of Pakistan he does well, there will be many a step he may falter on. How he handles those faltered steps will show his maturity in this political process.

There will be areas of friction between Imran Khan and the military and may well cover the issue of dealing with the militants, the role of the military intelligence, normalization of relations with India and Afghanistan and most importantly the scope and depth of relations with the United States. However, none of these issues is likely to upset the apple cart and especially if Khan can quickly and smoothly establish the rule of law and the clean functioning of government. Imran must also work with the opposition parties at a time like this and not simply go it alone, and for this a national consensus on key issues will be needed.

Letter to Imran Khan.

Dear Imran,


In the next few days, even in the face of accusations of poll rigging, you will be installed as the Prime Minister of Pakistan. If your 22 years in politics thus far was a difficult journey, the years ahead as head of the government will test you in ways beyond one's imagination. Your character as a human being will be put to test, and your values and morality will be challenged and more importantly you will learn that some situations will need an out of box thinking and a resolve that makes the difference between leadership and failure.

You will be surrounded by sycophants, people who will feed your ego and while the small favor for someone may seem small it will be the mark of your government; will you bend the rules or break them? While we as families go back a generation or more, my few meetings with you left some impressions which need to be shared today. I admire your resolve and your honesty in financial matters, however, what I have always felt is that their is a self centered aura around you, which is not uncommon with famous people. This results in the use of the "I" more than the "We", the team then seems a means to the goals you have for yourself rather than the team. Successful leaders rarely use the world "I" and this might be a small but important change forward.

On the broader front I ask you to reader Qaid i Azam Mohammed Ali Jinnah's speech of Aug 11, 1947. You will notice the whole speech not once mentions the world Islam, but it talks of the guiding principles of governance that our founder wanted for the country. I recall you once saying to me that "Pakistani Muslims have an identity crisis". Yes they do because we are Arabizing society, we are using the words Muslim and Islam more often than is necessary as if we have to remind ourselves who we are. The problem with our country is that we have misused our religion to the extent that we have created differences amongst ourselves and perhaps you are the only leader today who can fix this!

I would like to see a more tolerant Pakistan, a rule of law, a respect for freedom of the press, the upholding of the judicial process and most of all to bring all the stakeholders in the country, including the defeated opposition to a consensus that the politics of revenge must end. Your stubborn nature may stand in the way of negotiating the way forward but as much as politics is about compromise the trick is to know what you can compromise on?

I do feel the Jinnah speech of Aug 11,1947 should be something you embrace and set it as the key to governance. This will mean protecting the minorities, and to immediately put a stop to the politics of division and end to the intolerance that the Mullahs have imposed on our social structure forgetting we belong to a faith which preached tolerance.

Your biggest two challenges will be the economy and foreign policy.

The economy is crippled and even though ending corruption will slow the bleeding the patient can only return to health with a careful review of the economy and to expand the economic base with an export driven economy. Manufacturing and industry not only need power but also the rule of law and the creation of an economic environment where foreign companies will want to set up production in Pakistan. Imagine if Chinese industries set up their factories in Pakistan, nearer the ports, closer access to markets and a large work force that can be trained. This means investment in vocational skills colleges, we need more technical people in the work force and less political science degrees. Incentives over a tax breaks and ease of investment all will help. But underlying this the politics of violence will have to end for this the militants will have to find havens in other countries.

On foreign policy Pakistan's failures have resulted in Pakistan's foreign policy akin to a blind man walking in an empty corridor calling out if anyone is there to help him. Can you imagine we are a nuclear power and we are the ones asking for attention; surely it should be the other way around. It is vital that dialogue with both Afghanistan and India commence on a new footing. With Afghanistan the politics of interference by both sides has to stop and stakeholders within the military in Pakistan have to be convinced that we should not worry about the complexion of the government in Kabul and mind our own business just as Kabul must be told that influencing the militants within Pakistan is a no-go-zone. With India the history is more complex but both sides must accept that the issue of Kashmir cannot be rolled back to 1947 as too much water has flowed down the Ganges and the Indus. Kashmiri's perhaps want an independent country and it might be worth while considering that the status quo remain and Azad Kashmir be given a provincial status within Pakistan. After all India considers their part of Kashmir as one of the states of their federal structure.


Relations with the big powers will be more difficult and while cementing the already strong relationship with China should continue Pakistan must reset it relationship with the United States and Russia. Given the fractured landscape of international politics an effort to make the EU more pivotal in Pakistan's foreign policy should be considered. The most important element of foreign relations has to be improving the image of the country. This does not happen over night and will need you to ensure career diplomats re of a better calibre and the ambassadors you choose have an interest not only in just meeting their own kith and kin but also developing solid links within the countries they are posted to.


Imran, you have been considered as a candidate upon whom the hope of the people rests. This includes the women of the country who have been down trodden and marginalized for too long. In addition you have to take cognizance of the minorities and protect them more fiercely than just speeches on their status. Your slogan of a new Pakistan implies you have to redefine many aspects within society and this may mean breaking down the perceptions of the many intolerant souls within our society.

I wish you the best and while my blog may be critical of you and your government at times, remember that this is the time not to seek praise only but to take criticism in the spirit that people like me do not want to see you fail, because your failure will be the death knell of our country.

DId Jinnah want a secular Pakistan?

We are the proverbial 'moments away' from the 2018 elections in Pakistan, an election charged with emotion, accusations, and bomb blasts. An election in a nuclear weapon state which picks up a mere footnote on the international newswires. Yet, believe it or not, its an election that will perhaps define the future for the country. Imran Khan's promise of a new Pakistan carries with it the loaded responsibility that should he fail to deliver if he wins the election, then the only definition we as a nation will edge towards is 'failed state'.

This election gave me a chance to examine the manifesto of each of the major political parties and it was in a sense sad to see that the protection of the rights of the minorities and the women of the country was mentioned almost as an after thought. While some may have looked at the Islamist parties posters and giggled at the erased faces of their women candidates it did make one wonder about how far we have steered away from the legacy of the founder of the nation, Mohammed Ali Jinnah.

General Zia Ul Haq systematically installed the tools of intolerance in a nation, after his predecessor, Mr Zulfikar Ali Bhutto embraced the Islamist demand to outlaw Ahmadi Muslims as declare them non muslims when he faced agitation by the right wing in response to election rigging. It was Gen Zia who had Mr Jinnah's August 11, 1947 speech to the Constituent Assembly expunged from the social history books and state media in the next publication of Jinnah's speeches excluded the entire speech.

Why is this speech important?

It was the definitive political and social guide that the founder of the nation laid before the lawmakers who were entrusted to frame the constitution of the State of Pakistan. He laid out some guiding principles for the lawmakers, and I would assume that they were in agreement with his vision. At the expense of making this a long winded blog, I shall quote some of these from this very special speech.

His first principle he enunciated was 'The first observation that I would like to make is this: You will no doubt agree with me that the first duty of a government is to maintain law and order, so that the life, property and religious beliefs of its subjects are fully protected by the State. '

Today we cannot debate his second guiding principle 'The second thing that occurs to me is this: One of the biggest curses from which India is suffering - I do not say that other countries are free from it, but, I think our condition is much worse - is bribery and corruption. That really is a poison. We must put that down with an iron hand and I hope that you will take adequate measures as soon as it is possible for this Assembly to do so.'

His third principle was relevant to those times and even today; 'Black-marketing is another curse. Well, I know that blackmarketeers are frequently caught and punished. Judicial sentences are passed or sometimes fines only are imposed. Now you have to tackle this monster, which today is a colossal crime against society, in our distressed conditions, when we constantly face shortage of food and other essential commodities of life. A citizen who does black-marketing commits, I think, a greater crime than the biggest and most grievous of crimes. '

Surely even today many in Pakistan will recognize his fourth guiding principle; 'The next thing that strikes me is this: Here again it is a legacy which has been passed on to us. Along with many other things, good and bad, has arrived this great evil, the evil of nepotism and jobbery. I want to make it quite clear that I shall never tolerate any kind of jobbery, nepotism or any any influence directly of indirectly brought to bear upon me. Whenever I will find that such a practice is in vogue or is continuing anywhere, low or high, I shall certainly not countenance it.'

His final point was about the minorities and the role of the state in defining the relationship between the different segments in society. I must quote the entire section for it to have a contextual sense. 

'I know there are people who do not quite agree with the division of India and the partition of the Punjab and Bengal. Much has been said against it, but now that it has been accepted, it is the duty of everyone of us to loyally abide by it and honourably act according to the agreement which is now final and binding on all. But you must remember, as I have said, that this mighty revolution that has taken place is unprecedented. One can quite understand the feeling that exists between the two communities wherever one community is in majority and the other is in minority. But the question is, whether it was possible or practicable to act otherwise than what has been done, A division had to take place. On both sides, in Hindustan and Pakistan, there are sections of people who may not agree with it, who may not like it, but in my judgement there was no other solution and I am sure future history will record is verdict in favour of it. And what is more, it will be proved by actual experience as we go on that was the only solution of India's constitutional problem. Any idea of a united India could never have worked and in my judgement it would have led us to terrific disaster. Maybe that view is correct; maybe it is not; that remains to be seen. All the same, in this division it was impossible to avoid the question of minorities being in one Dominion or the other. Now that was unavoidable. There is no other solution. Now what shall we do? Now, if we want to make this great State of Pakistan happy and prosperous, we should wholly and solely concentrate on the well-being of the people, and especially of the masses and the poor. If you will work in co-operation, forgetting the past, burying the hatchet, you are bound to succeed. If you change your past and work together in a spirit that everyone of you, no matter to what community he belongs, no matter what relations he had with you in the past, no matter what is his colour, caste or creed, is first, second and last a citizen of this State with equal rights, privileges, and obligations, there will be on end to the progress you will make.

I cannot emphasize it too much. We should begin to work in that spirit and in course of time all these angularities of the majority and minority communities, the Hindu community and the Muslim community, because even as regards Muslims you have Pathans, Punjabis, Shias, Sunnis and so on, and among the Hindus you have Brahmins, Vashnavas, Khatris, also Bengalis, Madrasis and so on, will vanish. Indeed if you ask me, this has been the biggest hindrance in the way of India to attain the freedom and independence and but for this we would have been free people long long ago. No power can hold another nation, and specially a nation of 400 million souls in subjection; nobody could have conquered you, and even if it had happened, nobody could have continued its hold on you for any length of time, but for this. Therefore, we must learn a lesson from this. You are free; you are free to go to your temples, you are free to go to your mosques or to any other place or worship in this State of Pakistan. You may belong to any religion or caste or creed that has nothing to do with the business of the State. As you know, history shows that in England, conditions, some time ago, were much worse than those prevailing in India today. The Roman Catholics and the Protestants persecuted each other. Even now there are some States in existence where there are discriminations made and bars imposed against a particular class. Thank God, we are not starting in those days. We are starting in the days where there is no discrimination, no distinction between one community and another, no discrimination between one caste or creed and another. We are starting with this fundamental principle that we are all citizens and equal citizens of one State. The people of England in course of time had to face the realities of the situation and had to discharge the responsibilities and burdens placed upon them by the government of their country and they went through that fire step by step. Today, you might say with justice that Roman Catholics and Protestants do not exist; what exists now is that every man is a citizen, an equal citizen of Great Britain and they are all members of the Nation.

Now I think we should keep that in front of us as our ideal and you will find that in course of time Hindus would cease to be Hindus and Muslims would cease to be Muslims, not in the religious sense, because that is the personal faith of each individual, but in the political sense as citizens of the State.'

It is worth noting in the entire speech he never once used the word Islam. For him it was a homeland for the Muslims of India, but more than that it was also a homeland for the minorities and even all the sects of Muslims. Without using the word 'secular' Jinnah was defining a country that would in practice be secular. 

Today not one political leader contesting the elections has embraced these vital guiding principles of the founding father and instead fuel hatred and discord between not only the majority and the minorities but also between sects within the Muslims. In the United States over 200 years after the founding fathers framed the constitution even today reference is made to their guiding principles knowing they are the pillars of statehood. 

Lets hope the likes of Imran Khan, Shahbaz Shareef, Bilawal Bhutto, and the Mullahs of the other parties can dig out this speech of the founding father, read it, reflect on it, and measure themselves against its advice. More importantly lets hope they can be brave enough to espouse this message in a progressively intolerant Pakistan that they have allowed to be created.