An unhinged Trump and another four years?

The Democratic impeachment of Donald Trump was destined to fail in large measure due to partisan politics in the US Congress. This was a fore gone conclusion and if the Democrats hoped the impeachment process would dent the credibility of the incumbent US President there was little mileage in that effort. Trumps resonance to his base and the undecided voters is not based on what is goon in human nature but more on the unsaid in decades of US politics. If Gray Hart in 1988 had to bow out of politics for his alleged affairs with women, Donald Trump in 2016 could flick off any political fall out even when his own words showed his misogynist trait because character is no more an issue for the electorate.

Trump's impeachment proceedings clearly highlight probable cause for impeachment, but without more witnesses enough wiggle room was there for Trump and his party to squeeze out of the discomfort of some on the line Republican senators from joining the impeachment camp. The thing about Trump has been that while he has elevated politicians lying to art form, his decisive and at times racial bias have become more the norm than the exception. His die hard supporters rejoice at his remarks against the Mexicans, Muslims and African countries (amongst others) because this is something they would have wanted to say themselves without being called 'politically incorrect'.

On the Democratic party side the impeachment proceedings were too rushed, leaving one to question why more witnesses were not brought before the House Committees; even though some subpoenas to Trump officials were ignored. On the broader political forum there is no denying the Democratic party has continued to be in disarray and the Iowa caucus fiasco only highlights their problems. Senior leadership of the party is lacking, and in general none of the current flock of Presidential hopefuls make one step back and say 'Wow'. The Obama legacy of a strong unified party has been left of the wayside, thanks in part of the Hilary Clinton era of an election run against Trump which lacked planning and intent.

What all this might mean is that a Trump re-election, as unpalatable as that may sound, his win in the 2020 election will not be because of him being the better candidate but because the Democrats are just not organized enough to have a charismatic leader to take on Trump. Much like boxing promoters one can only wish for a Trump versus Obama election fight but sadly that is not to be; even though I do believe Obama would have trounced Trump within the ten rounds. In a sense Michelle Obama against Donald Trump stands a better chance of winning than any of the current aspirants in the Democratic stable. This is not because the current coterie of Democratic candidates are not qualified enough, it just that they are not unqualified enough as Trump to tackle him on his terms; a dirty campaign!

Unless Trump does something more off the wall than he has done so far, and that is not impossible, the chances are that a Trump re-election, albeit with a smaller margin than 2016, is more than likely. A reinvigorated Trump with scale higher in his arrogance, and certainly we have a larger dose of his un Presidential style through the next four years. The impact of the trade wars he started may well come home to roost in his next term and any slow down will hurt the average American more than ever before. Will there be further attempts to impeach him? Highly doubtful unless the Republicans also lose control of the Senate, which is possible. Some Trump supporters may hope that a second term may bring out the better Trump and negate some of the damage he has done to the prestige of the office he occupies. This would only be necessary for the greater good of the Republican party because when it comes to congressional elections and local council politics the Democratic party has managed a better showing; they only seem to fail at the level of the national leadership.

Sadly for the impartial observer the next four years of an unhinged President Trump will be hard to follow. Frequent changes in his team, scandals and the general lack of an ethical bent to the administration will remain the order of the day. On the good side of things it will mean the end of the era of Trump, an era where crudeness, lack of honor and a slide into unhinged tweeting were the hallmarks of the Presidency.