Trump and Trumpism post election.

 Irrespective of the noise of fraud from Trump his loss of the White House is inevitable. However, while Trump may eventually vacate the Oval Office his brand of politics, loosely labelled as Trumpism, will continue to have an impact on US politics. Other than a hyperbolic slogan of making America great again, the substance to Trumpism revolves around Trump himself. Core Republicans must cringe at the way their party has been hijacked by Donald Trump to such an extent that in the 2020 election the GOP platform was simply to re-elect Trump.

The impact of Trump has a significance for Americans, both who support him and those who oppose him, in a more deeper sense than we realise. His racist bias, his persona of demeaning those who oppose him and seeking a personal loyalty add to what we already knew Trump to be, a self centred businessman who had a propensity to say the unsayable and walk over anybody to attain his goals. When, in 2015, he burst in the political scene few believed he had any chance. Then Trump started with attacking Mexicans, Muslims, and the immigration policies which initially were seen as attention seeking gimmicks. Credit to Trump he knew what he was doing; all he needed was the media to pick up his comment on prime time. He way saying things that a progressively disfranchised white non college educated working class felt but never said. He blamed China for their job losses, and the climate change policies for the contraction of work in the heartland of America. It did not matter if it was true or not but here was a man who spoke what they wanted to hear and for full measure Trump embraced the evangelical Christians to drive the pint home that he was their chosen saviour.

The very media that Trump labels as fake were the ones to promote his rise for them to only realise that monster had been let out of the cage. The racist bias of Trumps message was not an accidental slip, it was meant to create a base amongst the white supremacists who mostly came from his base of non college educated whites. Trump was unconventional in presidency because this language of tweeting and three minute attention spam is what suited him. Silently however he did what the stalwarts of the Republican Party could not do, namely, he created a base of die hard supporters. However, these are not supporters of the GOP but his own cadre if supporters. 

Looking ahead Trump out of the White House does not necessarily mean that he will fade into presidential retirement and has vaguely hinted at a run for the president in 2024. What we do know is that Trump is unpredictable and while he may be sending out feelers he is energised by his base who in turn feed off his rhetoric in equal measure. The role and place that Donald Trump will have in America’s political scene depends on many factors and the possible outcomes are quite intriguing and complex.

Once out of power Trumps hold of the Republican Party will be tested and some segments of the party may work to distance themselves from him. In contrast Trump, backed by his energised base, may continue to wield influence on the direction of the party and also work to position himself as the candidate for 2024. Senior senators like Lindsay Graham and Mitch McConnell are aware of Trumps hold on his base which could account for 20% of the Republican vote bank of 2020. Trump for his part will continue to try and command the attention of the public whether through his own media company or continuing his social media presence, even if the larger American audience pays attention or not. In that sense Trump will perhaps be a disruptive force for the Republicans who earnestly feel that in the last five years he has steered the party into a swamp where it lacks political substance and its infrastructure demolished in the face of Trumps nepotism and promotion of sycophants.

There is a more real prospect of Donald Trump slipping into the muddy waters of legal cases, some of which could be criminal in nature, and his erosion of power could result in a massive push back from die hard Republicans who balk at Trumpism and its impact on American political conscious.  It is most likely that Mr Trump will face a mounting financial crisis, legal cases and this would effect his ability to position his political destiny. Some have suggested that if spurned by the Republican Party he may consider creating his own political party. While this may be an option Trump would prefer the reality has that given his financial issues he may not have the resources for such a venture.

As the Trump days at the White House come to a close one has to wonder what Trumpism really means. His base would simply say Making America Great Again, which really means nothing more than a slogan.  To these die hard supporters he spoke for them, even of he ignored their well being and at the fringes he flirted with white supremacists hugging them into a form of political acceptance they never witnessed before. The vagueness of Trumps political positions on issues of race, women and white supremacy have always left him wiggle room to avoid the direct questions. His genius has been that he can make the odd comment that his is not a fascist or racist and almost in the same breath call the white supremacists very fine people. Being questioned by enlightened journalists or the elitist middle class about his misogynist and racist remarks does not bother him because he knows his base embraces his rhetoric. As he once said they would forgive him if he shot someone in Times Square, and forgive him they have; for his sexist remarks about women, for his racism against Mexicans and Muslims and his calls to lock up those who oppose him. This is the base that will not change its support for him and any intelligent expose on Trumps failures is labelled fake news. 

The challenge will be if Trumpism will survive and prosper after Trump? The simple answer it depends on the fate of Trump as a man. While he would like to hold on to the influence on the party the reality of facing debt repayments and legal actions we may have a very angry man melting into oblivion. Should he weather these challenges then perhaps we have to accept that Trumpism will continue to have  an influence on the American politics. The question is whether this will be of major consequence or not?

As a closing note viewing all this drama from abroad one wonders if Americans, especially those in his base will ever realise the lasting damage one man has done to the political fabric of the country. How could rudeness, the lack of decorum and decency be celebrated much less accepted from the office of the President of the United States will continue to haunt people who have been accustomed to much better. While his MAGA crowd will see Trump with admiration few outside that circle would disagree that it was a historic low for the Oval Office.