Obama Farewell, Meryl Streep and Trump: A Thought.

US Presidents have, over the many decades, had varying degrees of send offs; some inglorious and shameful, some quiet and unnoticed, and then there is President Obama’s farewell, which stands out as emotional and moving. I listened to his farewell speech in Chicago three times, not because I wanted to record some facts, but simply because tenor, depth and resonance of those words needed to heard again and again. There are many too who would criticize the man for being good on words and short on deeds, and as he put it, this is the hallmark of a democracy; the right to disagree. In equal measure those who accuse him of being decisive would find it hard to find fault in his message of unity and togetherness.

Leaders are not expected to be perfect and all that is asked of them is to be genuine and true. Obama has had his faults and short comings too; an economic expansion that ignored some segments, the inability to condemn the 65 civilians killed in drone strikes, the silence as Israel slaughtered 2000 Palestinians in 50 days (of those killed 550 were children), and the list can perhaps go on, but we cannot fault him for not trying to make a difference. Obama is often accused of sheltering the Muslims at the expense of the nation, a claim that needs to be examined at length; suffice to mention here there is nothing wrong when he says, “Do not blame Islam for the actions of a minority of so called Muslims.”

 Obama, it would seem, came to office with more expectations of him than any other president before him. I guess this comes with the burden of being ‘the first’ in any field. In a sense this may explain his constant effort to appease all sections of society and, in the eyes of some, falling short with each section. Yet when we look at legacies we need to stop counting trees and see the forest as a whole. We need to see not only what our part of the agenda was fulfilled but what the essence of the persons legacy means to us.

President Obama, along with his charming wife, Michelle, brought wholesomeness to the White House that it seriously lacked. The reaching out and the genuineness that flowed from the portals of that esteemed residence were not just photo opportunities but one could feel the warmth, concern and care for people was deep rooted. There was intellect in the Oval Office, there was humor, there empathy, perhaps the most important ingredient in a man’s arsenal of what we call Character.

Yes amongst us there will be some who will say Obama handed Trump the election victory by not delivering on his promises. First all as measures go he delivered on most of his promises in substantial strides of success. Secondly, the people elected Trump, go blame yourself for what you have put in the White House, no one put a gun to your head and said vote Trump. In so far as contrasts go for me the biggest thing I will miss is the eloquent speeches of President Obama, which will soon be replaced by the vocabulary lacking, wobbling utterances from a new President whose command of the English language is just about enough to get a Twitter message out.

On to Meryl Streep, an actress who oozes talent, and steeped as she may be in liberal politics, her remarks about a man of power mocking a disabled reporter had nothing to do with liberal politics; it was about decency, compassion and empathy. The fact that Mr. Trump’s only reaction was to call her an ‘over rated actress’ shows either man is living on Mars or is a total buffoon. You do not get over 127 acting awards and nominations in your career and remain ‘over rated’. Yes celebrities should speak of issues of social consciousness, they are icons of the young generation and if they do not have empathy for society then who will?

Sadly we must adjust to the new times where the new President will be twitting at all times of the night his outrage at reporters, world leaders and celebrities when they ‘dare’ to criticize him. What is bloodcurdling is that in a democracy to wear a skin that thin and then to sit in the White House as the most powerful man and tweet your temper out portends a mindset of immaturity or intolerance, or perhaps both. We must this week take time and listen to President Obama’s speech and Meryl Streep’s speech a few times and absorb the message of each word, each sentence a little more deeply. Sadly we know that such oratory will not will coming from the White House after January 20^th, so Meryl its all up to you.

A Trump Presidency: a possible perspective.

In but a few days Donald J Trump will put his hand on the Bible and take the oath to the highest office in the United States and become, undoubtedly, the most powerful man on the Earth. It would do no good to wonder how this all happened, and no it is not a dream you are in, this is reality. In time the election itself will be dissected and analysed in a million ways, and that is fine, but for the moment as history will etch the new Presidents name it will beg the question of what sort of Presidency should we expect from a man who evoked only two emotions; of die hard loyalty or pure hate. Indeed, you either loved the man and forgave him his sins with bucketfuls of sanitising votes or you loath the man and wonder how a man so low in character can occupy an office so high in expectations?

On the domestic side, and I am not expert on the pulse of the American people, not that many are these days, he will roll back on some of his earlier election promises. Here is the reason why? When he decided to run for office he had no choice but to make the most bizarre statements, (ala Mexicans, Muslims, China, whatever), as this gave him free air time. The media love a nasty story and he was out to make those nasty stories. With time as he emerged as the GOP candidate he did take a few mellowing steps to his earlier statements, but by no means humbling ones. So I believe while the tax cuts and perhaps suspending Obama care or modifying it will happen rather rapidly, the Mexican wall might be a subject which will be bounced about a lot but building the wall may not happen as easily not because of funding issues only, but become of the many government departments that have to get involved in the process. The promised trade wars may not break out immediately, but I do expect skirmishes as a trigger happy President may be itching for a fight far more than his advisors.

On the economic side as much as lower taxes are promised to expand the economy, its effects will come in slowly, prompting the government to go out and borrow more to fund not only the current expenditure but also the promised spending by Mr Trump. Will the trade off between lower taxes and higher growth happen within a reasonable time table? My honest opinion is that the lag time to get the tax benefit to work its way into the economy could take 3 odd years and that too if everything goes to plan. The joker in the pack will be the position on international trade only because in a codependent economic world slapping on import tariffs will mean higher consumer prices till domestic production of those goods catches up, and we assume the domestic production will be at the same price as in say China.

On the international front, politically speaking, the going is going to be tough. First of all Trumps position of NATO will need to be spelled out more clearly, and a failure to carry NATO partners with him might well mean the whole web of US security arrangements around the world will get untangled at worse or frayed at the edges at best. The power gap this will leave in Eastern Europe, the Middle East and perhaps the Far East will be filled by both Russia and China. The Middle East will be the region most effected given the current conflicts going on there and the need to keep the allies together to deal with the threat of ISIS and others. Yes Russia can deal with those threats too, but it will be at the expense of further destabilising the region and the not necessary in a manner that will help the cause of the US. The more delicate issue for Mr Trump will be how he handles Eastern Europe and specifically the Crimea situation. Given he has not made any substantive remarks on this during the election or since winning the election, I would assume the Crimea's annexation by the Russians will be sadly put aside and Putin and Trump try and work out a new working relationship.

From a more holistic perspective the Trump Presidency will have enough drama to keep us occupied and at times amused, yet it is clear the man does not have the class, the manners or the depth of intellect to catch out attention when he speaks. We may or may not agree with President Obama but we have to agree what a fine orator he is and when he spoke it was almost mesmerising to hear him hold the floor. This is a trait Mr Trump cannot buy, borrow and steal and we may have to be 'bigly' disappointed in this respect. The test for many of us will be to see if the man who ridiculed a disabled reporter can have the humility to change and more importantly to hear him apologise with sincerity within the first few days in office? Personally I doubt he can become humble, that bone just was not put in by the factory.

For America's sake, and perhaps for the sake of the world at large, I do pray Mr Trump will reach deep down within himself and see that he has to rise to the occasion and this position cannot be moulded to suit him, he has to fit the position. Cleaning swamps, building walls, dismantling alliances which are decades old, and redefining the world trade map are all fine and illustrious goals to some, but Presidencies are made by the legacy of values they create, the mantle of empathy and patience and maturity that come out of that office. This is the litmus test to which Mr Trump has to be measured as much as he is to be measured by the successes of jobs, GDP growth and America's standing in the world.

President D J Trump: what next?

Martin Luther King once said that the riot was the language of the unheard; on November 8th in the US Presidential elections it was the vote which became the language of the unheard. From the Clinton perspective not enough of their unheard (the Latin Americans and the African Americans) spoke up in the key battlegrounds states. From the Trump perspective enough of the disfranchised unheard white working class vote spoke up in states like Michigan, North Carolina, Florida and Ohio came to be heard. To some extent this was largely an emotional vote for Trump with the emotions of the unemployed who bought into the hyperbole that Trump threw out enough to drown the concerns about his temperament, character and indeed the lack of policy.

Irrespective of the opinion of what went wrong from the Clinton camp, this is now the moment where the impossible has become the possible. So what next.

The saner view will be that both Democrats and Republicans have to go with the honeymoon of the Trump Presidency; long enough for everyone to feel he is being given a chance. Putting aside his asinine views on immigration, the wall, Muslims and Nato, the bottomline is that his main promise was to restore jobs to Americans and that is the promise he will be held up to. Someone once said that if your promise too much then you have to deliver to the expectation more earnestly than even the expectation. it will be interesting to see if the Trump economic agenda will be able to achieve this because in itself it has dichotomies that pose not challenges but obstacles. While the higher tax bracket people will have the immediate benefit the question remains open how soon will that trickle down to more business investment and more jobs.

Lacking previous experience in public office the main challenge will be to give up a maverick style of  administration and try and build a good team will be one of the most telling challenges for Trump. His personality suggests that the maverick style, which brings to mind questions about his temperament, may well be on exhibition than anything else. On a broader platform his acceptance speech talked of healing, but now he has to convince people that he will not only speak for the white working class but will truly speak to all of America. This may mean a roll back of the rhetoric Trump espoused during the campaign and may well be the most pressing change in the man.

  The hope for many of his supporters who would have grudgingly supported him will be that his domestic agenda will not only be tempered to fit the mood of healing but also have the tools to deliver on it. On the international front is where the biggest concern will emerge. If sense prevails he may well choose a worthy secretary of state and meddle less with foreign policy than he has so far commented upon.

For the cynics, of which I may well be one, the biggest concern will be his character. Does a man who has been sexist and racist suddenly change on becoming the President? As President Obama said the office itself brings out the man you truly are; its not a reality show role, this is the real stuff and what troubles me most is that not once, even in passing reference, has Mr Trump apologised for his comments about Muslims. His apology about his Access Hollywood remarks about women was only an apology that he regretted it he said those words but then washed it off as locker room talk thereby skirting away from categorically apologising to women. For me the big test will be with the man will mature from the locker room to the White House. This is the litmus test of the man, does he truly respect another human being.

Trump's Slash and Burn Strategy.

Faced with a mounting wave of allegations from women about sexually inappropriate behaviour Donald Trump has gone to the trenches to do the one thing he knows best to do; hit back! A characteristic of Trump through this campaign has been to fight criticism with fire and never actually answer the critics. He went after Megan Kelly, perhaps his first tirade which should have made us balk and think what is this man up to? When the father of fallen US soldier confronted Trump the result was an almost all night Twitter tirade against the fallen hero's father. More recently and after a better performance at the second US Presidential debate, Trump thought the most important thing for him to do was to defame a former Miss Universe on Twitter at 3 AM!

In the past four days the Trump campaign has announced the 'shackles are removed' and the result is that the tone and the tenor of the Trump camp and more his words have spiralled into a school boy tantrum. However, school boy tantrums usually start and end in the back yard or the school parking lot. Here we are talking of the GOP Presidential nominee who has blamed the Press, the System, the women who accused him as being 'horrible horrible liars'; almost as if his saying it makes it true. In a final coup degrace he has even gone after those within the GOP political set up who would have dared to have found his lewd remarks on tape as offensive.

This is the profile of a sore loser, but not a sore loser in the making, a sore loser in character and temperament which is ingrained into his personality. His vision of 'make America Great Again', while emotionally appealing lacks his own understanding that the die hard supporters who will ignore his sexual predatory personality or his offensive attacks on the under privileged, are not the only ones who will cast their vote on November 8th.   The electorate Mr Trump is much larger and much more silent than you can fathom at the moment and each of your tirades is alienating them from your cause.

Trump has already started talking of a rigged election and short of saying he will not accept any result other than him being the winner, he has worked up his fanatic (and perhaps gun toting) supporters to believe that his loss will not because he messed up but because the system was rigged against him. Side by side he has gone after the media and accused them of being a part of the fix against him. The result has been for the first time in a US election media attending Trump events have had to have police protection. Many weeks ago when Trump said at a rally, on hearing a heckler "Get him out of here I tell you I would punch him in the face", most of us thought he was being light hearted in and in a strange twisted way funny. Now the reality of his twisted mind seems to be coming to roost as it is clear that Trump has decided that if he is to go down he will make sure a great many other elements of the US political system and some good things about it will also go down with him.

Trumps new slash and burn strategy is aimed and taking down the independence of the media, calling esteemed newspapers as crooked, even when some of them have told him if he wishes he can sue them for their revelations about his predatory exploits. Trump is also taking down tolerance, family values (which the GOP always said was a cherished ideal of their party), openness to debate the issues and most of all he is working more like a dictator of a banana republic telling Hilary that she will go to jail, (not be tried by a court of law). One of the biggest casualty of the Trump anger machine is the Republican Party and many of its stalwarts must wonder what the party will look like in the months and years ahead.

Trumps myopia is such that he believes he is ahead in the polls, he believes everyone is lying, he believes that media is out to destroy him, he believes that only he has the solution and is somehow genetically more intelligent than anyone else and knows how to defeat the ISIS, fix America, and fix the world. All fine Mr Trump, but step back, think if you can through your Twitter temper, and see that all you had to do is stick to a script, stick to the issues, lay out your plans in more than just ideas, engage with the people you would not normally sit with, and just show us that to be President you need a sense of embracing differences more than just slashing and burning all those who oppose you.

US Presidential Elections: A sad view from the outside.

For decades the message from Washington to the developing world is to embrace democracy and to bring democratic norms and values to their own societies. There was never a doubt in my mind that eventually with education and social responsibility becoming more prevalent in the emerging world democratic norms would also follow. With it came a vision of the stalwarts of US politics, John F Kennedy, Ronald Reagan, Franklin Roosevelt, Jimmy Carter and even those who did not occupy of the highest office, Al Gore, John Mccain, Robert Kennedy and many more. More recently Barrack Obama brought back a sense of statesmanship to the White House and then in sharp contrast the current US Presidential election has spiralled into a mud sling match which negates all that seemed so elegant about the electoral process.

Yes there was talk of JFK's escapades with women and the many other stories of US Presidents before. Perhaps we did not live in a world of intrusive media back then or perhaps the press never found their own teeth, but ever since the Gary Hart incident on the boat "Monkey business", the press found its power that it could derail any candidate for the highest office. It would seem that today Donald J Trump and his supporters will say precisely this that the press is out to get him.

However, from the outside, one cannot but notice that the quality of the political engagement that encompasses the current election highlights the depths to which the political squabbling has fallen to. There is also no doubt that both candidates are seriously faulted and the choice before the US electorate is who is more faulted? The question of character is at the forefront of this selection process and even though their character flaws are so wide apart it makes one wonder why could not the political process throw up better candidates. It would seem that both parties just vomited out the two worst candidates that they could think of.

While Hilary Clinton carries the burden of mistakes of her recent past, i.e the emails and the possibility that the established political powers engineered her nomination, the mudslinging would be reserved more for her husband the former President Bill Clinton. For Donald Trump his modus operandi to snatch the GOP nomination was based on a debased, offensive and an appeal to the defranchised white working class. While it may have worked at the primaries the challenge of creating an appeal at the national level based on race and divisive political slogan is much harder to achieve. Yet there was a prayer that he could well have preyed on the discontent within America and might even have pipped Hilary at the post. However, the unravelling of Trump has begun with his offensive comments, albeit from 11 years ago, about women and there seems a promise of more to surface, Trump clearly is committing political suicide.

While a lame apology has come out from Trump he has negated the effect of that with attacks on Bill Clinton and then calling his comments about women as harmless locker room banter, which clearly shows he has no remorse for his behaviour. This will move the debate more towards his character rather than away from it to the issues of the economy and the future of America. For Hilary Clinton and her camp the best would be to avoid commenting on the character controversy letting Trump dig his own grave with his Twitter shovel. Sadly the temptation will remain in Hilary's comment to add a few shovels of dirt onto the Trump political grave and this is where the election process will and is getting derailed into a vicious mudsling.


The broader impact of this is that the Republican party has been totally uprooted from its roots, causing a civil war within from which, the staunch political conservatives will have to wonder how long it will take to repair. Most GOP political figures will be distancing themselves from Trump thus creating a unique precedent that a nominee of a leading party has lost the support of the main political figures of his own party. Sensible voices within the GOP seem resigned to admit that they may not win the White House and must try and ensure that the Congress remains in their hands. This is where the schism between Trump and the party will become wider.

For Hilary the saga of her emails will dog her perhaps beyond this election and each week new leaks will at best distract her and at worst cause her to go on the defensive. It would not be incorrect to stop and think that perhaps Bernie Sanders would have had an easier ride to the White House and most certainly a difficult target for Trump to lash out at. Yet as we see the election from the outside we can only feel sad that a democratic tradition which we all upheld is becoming a reality show with smell of scandal on both sides that can only upset the more sane minds.

IMG World of Adventures. A Review

Just over ten years back I was involved with both Ilyas and Mustafa Galadari as the plans for the City of Arabia took shape and the various components we detailed out. The plans were ambitious and in line with the mood of the city of Dubai. The downturn in the real estate market washed out many of projects and in a sense separated the boys from the men. I will admit within my own mind I often looked at this wonderful project and thought if it would see the light of the day. For me the interest remained attuned to the theme park elements because that was where I felt the footfall would be drawn. I often believed and said without the draw of a mall the theme park would struggle to survive in a market where no one had ventured to the scale and scope that the two brothers envisaged.

Over the weekend I went in to the newly opened IMG World of Adventures to spend a whole day, and the visit was not planned with the owners or anyone. This I believe would give me the independence to see for myself. First and upfront I will admit I was wrong to believe that a theme park without a mall would struggle. Arriving at 11.30 AM i was pleasantly surprised by the number of people venturing into this world of adventure. As I walked around, experiencing the offerings the rides and talking to the visitors I had to eat humble pie each moment, and at each ride and came to the realisation that the two brothers have done it. Well done Ilyas and Mustafa and your team.

I think I need to elaborate on my views. First of all my guess was that the theme park probably had over 15,000 visitors on the day I was there, and it was not a Friday. Lets start with some details:

The large building is deceptive in terms of how much is inside it. The arrival area is large, well laid out and could easily accommodate the largest possible rush with ease. The entry is subdued and some may argue some screens with a teaser for what to expect would have been nice. Personally I think it worked fine as the surprise that awaited one was not exposed too early.

The offering is amazing in all respects. While when I was involved with the project we had thought of only a dinosaur theme park, which would have been adequate attached to a mall; both the brothers have gone a step further and involved the remit of offering to include the Marvel Adventures and the Cartoon Network offering, thereby adding to the Dinosaur experience with a board coverage of the customer base. Experts may argue that it is too much under one roof? Well that might well be the case if this was in the US or Europe, but here two things make it work wonderfully. In the first place the zoning of the offering is well thought out and not crowded and secondly the rich content makes sure that each age group is well catered for.

I tried out four or five of the dozen and half main rides and I must say the experience was excellent across the board. Yes some rides had a longer wait time and when I see the brothers next time I would suggest that they put some sort of screen at each ride to let visitors know the expected wait time per ride as they arrive at the ride, this will help the flow of the people better. The staff were very good and helpful and efficient in all respects. There was emphasis on safety and most of the staff were good at explaining what to expect on each experience.

The F&B outlets were excellent, we had lunch and dinner there, and found the service to be excellent and the food to be great value for money and good quality. What was also refreshing was that one is spoiled for choice when it came to the food offering, from Arabic, to Chinese, to Indian, to Italian to International and even the quick fast food kiosks were all well manned and a delightful experience.

On reflection and given my age, I would say one day is not enough to savour the experience to its entirety and would strongly recommend that a two day or three day pass be considered. The one ticket for all rides and experiences concept is remarkable and very good value for money and offered the visitors the ease that is essential for a good experience. The fast track option is a valuable offering and I would certainly consider it next time.

I would strongly recommend this on a MUST VISIT list and also consider it for repeat visits. My guess is that IMG World of Adventures will have a major impact on the market place not only in Dubai but the region as a whole. In time the marketing exposure will add to the footfall, which I can believe on a busy day would be over 25,000 per day, however at no time did I have a feeling of being crowded as the planning and lay out of the theme park, all of which is indoors, is such that you are not pushing and shoving with people.

As a final note I want to thank Ilyas and Mustafa and their team for a fabulous job to really create something that the market so desperately needed. Well done you both have done it and full appreciation to your commitment to make it happen.

India and Pakistan inching towards war?

After three wars in the past and over two decades of skirmishes on the Kashmir Line of Control (LOC), events of the past couple of weeks have inched the two South Asian nuclear powers closer to war. The incident of the Uri camp on the Indian side which left 18 Indian soldiers has worked Indian media and the hawks into a frenzy of war mongering. When seen in isolation India certainly would be aggrieved by the attack which was carried out by Kashmiri separatists and India's claim that they were armed and supported by Pakistan.

There are two ways to see the current crisis, a short 3 month to 3 year view, or go back to the genesis of the dispute. There cannot be any doubt that the recent protests within Indian Kashmir against the Indian government control of the area by Indian Kashmiri's has left India embarrassed about their assertion that Kashmiri's were well assimilated into the main body of the Indian Union. The fact that there were curfews and violent protests against Delhi in Srinagar and elsewhere in Indian Kashmir cannot be denied as home grown, even though pro Pakistan elements may well have fuelled the fire.

On the flip side there is also every possibility that domestic turmoil within Indian Kashmir will be exploited by both Indian Kashmiris in exile within Pakistan Kashmir and also by militant elements within Pakistan. For Pakistan the difficult situation has been that while it is combating the terrorists of Taliban, Al Qaeda and other anti Pakistan groups within their country, there is the Kashmir card that some other anti Indian militant groups play to draw support even from those terrorist groups that Pakistan army is battling within the country. Roping in this organisations is not easy and for Pakistan to train them and support them is counter productive. The military in Pakistan does not want to make the mistake they made of training and arming the Taliban for the battles within Afghanistan only to see these former allies turn on their hosts; Pakistan.

The hawks on both sides clearly are not interested in measures to de-escalate the current confrontation which is closely resembling an inching towards a limited war. India has already evacuated over a 1,000 villages on their side, supposedly as a precaution, which Pakistan could well be seeing as a precursor to the Indian army crossing the international border. For both armies it is one thing to have skirmishes on the Line of Control in Kashmir and another thing to cross the International Border. For India the attack in Uri gives them the pretext to talk about Pakistan sponsored terrorism and avoid discussion on the situation within Kashmir. For Pakistan the sabre rattling by India allows the Sharif government to try and divert attention of the opposition, led vy Imran Khan, to further besiege the government on the issue of corruption.

Sadly sensible voices are being drowned in the noise as India, unusually, has upped the ante to talk of further surgical strikes. The last time this happened there was a vicious war in the Kargil area in which neither side came out looking the better. However, the military situation has changed and the belief that Pakistan now possesses tactical nuclear weapons, whether they be depleted uranium ammunition or low yield flash nuclear weapons, gives the Pakistan army the edge that should their international border be crossed in a formal war then such weapons would be used. India's response in this sense would only have to be an escalation to deploying non tactical nuclear weapons. Washington is aware of the risks and it would be important that both sides are encouraged to rein in the war mongering as neither side will win this war.

From a Pakistan point of view to be called a sponsor or terrorism is considered absurd having lost over 54,000 personnel and 300,000 civilian losses, including injuries, over the past 17 years in fighting terrorism. There has to also been an acknowledgement that Pakistan cannot reign in each and every group just as India or the US or any country can ensure that rouge terror attacks will not happen. From India's point of view there has to be a visible effort to reduce the attacks on their territory from elements coming across the border.

Both sides should engage in serious discussions to prevent an escalation and both should consider a 3 mile wide buffer along the line of control and ask for the United Nations to administer the buffer zone. I also personally believe that the Kashmiris really do not want either side and seek an independent state of their own. Pakistani side Kashmiris in this sense have not shown an anti Paksitak bias while in contrast Indian Kashmiris have had their moments of love and hate with New Delhi. For the moment both sides have more to gain by pushing for peace rather than testing their military might in a senseless war where there will no winners.