Imran Khan and his government face a non confidence motion that could end the Khan's first stint in power in a country where the complexions of politics defy common sense. Most likely, it would seem at the point of this writing, that his government will not survive the no confidence motion largely because of the desertions of his allies. When he first assumed power I did write him an open letter, more in the spirit of a friendship rather than a political lecture, and though I doubt he ever read it, one cannot help wonder where did he lose the plot.
Imran always has been upfront about his views, and you get pretty much how he sees it, sometimes naive, (on economic affairs) and too blunt (on international politics) but you do not get corruption. While be brought a freshness to the political scene his optimism to 'fix' things within a year or so was perhaps overstated. How can thirty years of mismanagement of a country be fixed in even two years. While he had bucket fulls of belief in his mission it was not enough to shed the politicians who had joined his bandwagon; interestingly some of them are the ones deserting him now.
Saddled with historical inefficiencies was further exacerbated by the effects of the COVID pandemic and the effect on the global economy. Some important resets were done, mainly bringing in a broader social welfare program and trying to move the country towards an independent foreign policy. While there were murmurs of corruption within some quarters of his political allies (the sugar mafia etc) the Khan was not visibly happy with such reports but he did fail to pursue the accused allies with the same vigour he showed in going after his political opponents.
One has to believe that at times of crisis the metal of a human being is tested. Imran Khan has showed no serious signs of panic and knows that other than losing the post of Prime Minister he does not have a plethora of business interests to protect or worry about. His closing gambit about foreign intervention is a bit surprising and needs some examination.
In foreign policy it is normal for bigger powers to express their displeasure to diplomats of the country they are unhappy with. Short of a formal position the informal words exchanged between governments and diplomats of other countries serve to get the not so subtle messages across. While this is interference and there is no doubt that this happens every day ignoring the messages that one does not like is more the norm. Imran Khan linking the 'message' from an unnamed government to a conspiracy with the opposition in Pakistan is setting a precedent. Because the desire of a foreign government in removing him is similar to that of the opposition does not mean there is collusion and does not make the Opposition traitors.
Imran Khan has much more credible charges against the opposition, which are before the courts and government agencies and point to the massive looting of wealth that has taken place in the country for the past 30 odd years. There is no doubt that the opposition is united only through the common dislike of Imran Khan and his policies. The fact that some horse trading has taken place in putting together the required number of parliamentary votes to oust Imran from office cannot be denied. Whether such trading involved money, promises of ministerial posts or whatever remains to be seen. One this is certain that with elections due in 2023 the new government will eventually find its allies falling out.
Strategically speaking one wonders why didn't Imran Khan dissolve the Parliament and seek a new general election? In the broad mass of Pakistani's he remains popular and it would have been very difficult for the opposition to beat him at the ballot. Without the burden of the dissidents the Khan could have brought in new faces and perhaps a bigger majority in the National Assembly. What remains encouraging is that he has stated repeatedly that he accepts the process of parliamentary democracy and if it means he loses power so be it.
The Opposition agenda is absent beyond the removal of The Khan. The alliance is badly patched up with political parties who were at each others throat through most of Pakistan's political history. The PML-N's former leader is in self imposed exile in the face of corruption charges and after being disqualified by the courts from politics. The PPP while led by an energetic young leader has been losing its grass roots support in successive elections. The ethnically positioned MQM while not a national party has always held its role as a deal maker in any coalition government and lacks any appeal for a national position. The religious party JUI, is led by a politician who could not win his own electoral seat and carries the pretension of national leadership on the basis of a religious complexion that has been repeatedly milked for electoral votes and a say in national politics.
The two main parties, PMLN and PPP will have to think long and hard of a fresh approach to national politics and perhaps consider a 'clean politics, clean government' agenda for the future. The rank and file of people in Pakistan will tell you after the economic challenges to the country they consider corruption as the major problem in Pakistan. If Imran Khan can be credited with something is that for once the office of the Prime Minister cannot be accused of being corrupt.
However, it would be foolish to think that this is the end of The Khan. He carries enormous appeal to the masses and should be reform some of his party and come to the polls with a cogent economic and social policy with the right people to implement the agenda then the Opposition, united or not, will find it difficult to defeat him at the polls.
