Imran Khan & PTI: A need to reset the agenda.

Over twenty years back Imran Khan, two of his friends and myself were engrossed in a discussion on the future of Pakistan in my hotel room in Dubai. Imran was dropping hints that in a couple of days he would announce entering the political arena. I recall telling him then that would it not be better than become the 'Ralph Nader' of Pakistan, like a non political force bringing the government of the time to task of its performance or the lack of it. Late that night he took the flight to Pakistan and within days announced his entry into politics.

I have always said that if one attribute that stood out with Imran it has been his honesty, knowing full well that he accounted for every penny raised for his cancer hospital. I also felt that he was good at inspiring people in his team and yet the challenge would be running a country is radically different from running a country. The past two decades have evolved Imran Khan, from the start up political party to now a party in power in Pakistan. His policies and stance on some issues have warmed my heart, and on others I have had to stop and think about the sagacity of his words.

Today he is heading the government of a very difficult country, which does have enormous potential, and in my first blog after his election I imparted some advice to him (https://aqsher.blogspot.com/2018/07/letter-to-imran-khan.html) highlighting that tackling the economy and setting the foreign policy course are the two most important tasks before him. His successes so have on both fronts have been marginal. While his recent handling of the face off with India has been very good, his faux pas on Afghanistan, the recent press conference in Tehran, and his governments lack of economic direction are disturbing to say the least.

While one can go into specifics here, the fundamental problem lies in the way the PTI governance is being carried out. Though social media may well not be the only way to gauge the mind set of the governing party and its supporters, there is no doubt that Imran's cavalier style effects the proper framing of policy. On foreign policy alone you see the Foreign Office, the Prime Ministers office and the Prime Minister himself issuing statements that clearly indicate a lack of coordination and internal discussion between them.

A large part of me had hoped that Imran Khan would be a cohesive force after becoming Prime Minister. In this sense he has failed as the narrative from the PTI camp seems to suggest an intolerance to criticism. I, even though a well wisher of Imran, run the risk of being attacked on social media for criticizing him here. Imran and the PTI would argue that being inclusive towards political figures of the past who, in their eyes, robbed the nation of its wealth is next to impossible. My simple retort would be by all means accountability should be there and any one who has stolen money or misused public office should be brought to justice. However, this should be through the due process of the law. The national accountability machinery should be used to investigate and then the courts of law should be the ones to determine the fate of such people. Much like predecessor governments NAB seems to be a weapon against those who happen to be opponents and may well have ill gotten wealth.

The atmosphere is becoming toxic in a sense. Exit control lists, assuming all investments are from ill gotten wealth and in a sense short circuiting the due process of law in the aim to bring people to justice who allegedly stole money does have its ramifications on the business environment. Yes Imran Khan wants to clean up things, and that is a laudable task, but there are courts to do that and the effort should not look like its just a witch hunt for certain people. Legitimate investors will obviously be worried if arbitrary actions will come to haunt them for making investments into the country.

Indeed with an external debt of $99 billion and economic numbers across the board looking dismal, there will be a tendency to lean towards the blame game. Economic management in Pakistan has over decades been unhinged. While even the current debt level is around the same level as a percentage of GDP over the past two decades (ranges from 24% to 31% debt to GDP) there is no doubt that there has been a propensity to borrow even when GDP growth has been good. Part of the reason is the tax revenue has been abysmally low. In a country with a workforce of 58 million people the official tax payers who filed returns in 2018 was only 1.4 million!

Clearly what I would have expected Imran Khan to do is to work with the two other major parties on forming a consensus on economic policy and to legislatively overhaul the economic structure. In an environment where PTI feels anyone who is not supporting them is a traitor to the country there will not be any hope of a unified approach to economic reforms. It is time for the rhetorical slandering to be scaled down and for the PTI and its leadership to understand that just as the country united to face the recent threat from India, the same cooperation and mentality is needed to deal with the economic crisis the country faces.

Yes there are differences between the main leadership of the PMLN and PPP with PTI but there is still a possibility for a broad consensus with the rank and file members of both parties to consider a multi-partisan approach to handling issues of national importance. To me resetting the economic agenda is a priority and its great that Imran sees what is good about other countries and wants to learn from China and Iran and others, he must also realize the solutions are well within the intellectual capital available within the country.

Indian Elections: Divisions being put to test.

India is undoubtedly the worlds largest democracy with over 900 million going to the polls this election. So gigantic is the task that voting spans seven phases and a six week period, all in the backdrop of electioneering that continues till the last vote is dropped in the ballot box. This election, however, pitches not only the traditional rivals; Modi's BJP against Rahul Gandhi's Congress, but also, almost in keeping with elections the world over since Mr Trumps election, pitting divergences like never before. Modi's rallying point has been a heightened appeal towards a 'New India' based on a nationalist appeal, and playing the terrorism card to the extent that promising an end to the special status if Indian Kashmir. Gandhi's party appeals to the broader base of Indian secular integration and reform that having been its hallmarks.

In a country so large and diverse polling would be either ridiculously flawed or totally biased to rely upon to make any predictions. Modi's use of and support from a smattering of Indian TV channels and personalities is reminiscent of a nation almost ready to go to war. The recent confrontation with Pakistan where India lost one jet fighter and claiming to have shot down an Pakistani F 16 seems to initially have been the jingoism that Modi needed. This seems to have backfired badly as Imran Khan, the Pakistani PM, quickly returned the down pilot and then waited for the Indian media spin to continue till evidence came from none other that the US itself that Pakistan did not lose a F 16.

Indeed Modi's pitch has been that if you hate Modi then you hate India! A message that may have an appeal within the hard core of the BJP ranks but in a diverse country like India where many of the states and people from different segments feel disfranchised by the Modi camp it might be a slogan that would not hold voter attention. Additionally almost 80 million new, and mostly young, voters have been added to the list. These voters may well hold the card to some main polling battles.

Living in UAE one has a large number of Indian friends and their feedback, while not indicative of 900 million people who vote, does give an insight into the issues. A well placed Muslim engineer from Hyderabad in India made an interesting comment that the Muslim voters along with the voters in the Southern States could well tilt the balance away from Modi. Then he added yet to the Muslims it will make little difference because they will continue to me marginal and treated accordingly. A couple of workers from Kerala who I often bump into were adamant that Modi was himself causing these 'terror' attacks and is more corrupt than all of the others put together.

Modi does have one thing going for him. A robust social media presence, (which matters with young voters) and the ability to deflect controversy with ease. To him the spin matters, and rest is just noise. Rahul Gandhi and the Congress will certainly be tested and for the progressive Indians the Congress has always been a better bet. Yet they have to climb the proverbial mountain since in 2014 they won only 44 seats, down from 206 in the 2009 election. While alliances will help the Congress this perhaps will be its biggest test to turn around its fortunes.

The fact in the recent regional elections the BJP lost some key states, which in fact had been instrumental in helping BJP win the 2014 election, will be a matter of concern to Modi and co. In states like Tamil Nadu Modi has struggled, especially with the younger voters. Modi has been playing the patriotism card over the recent spate with Pakistan, and even though it is evident that the Indian Air Force did not fair well, his spin doctors continue to deny that and hail Modi as patriot who you favor and if you don't then you are anti Indian.

None of this implies that Modi and the BJP would not have a decent showing in the elections, but it might well be so that they will not have a simple majority on their own to form a government. If Congress and its potential allies can have a good enough showing then forming a coalition government is open to either camp.

Beyond electioneering what I find disturbing is this nationalist born again fervor which can be a dangerous card to play. Anyone who talks of moderation and peace in regional affairs is dubbed a 'peacenik' and 'anti Indian'. Modi and co are playing out a message of scare mongering which may well help them in the short term but in a country where emotions run high and a reconciliation towards a strong central government in New Delhi is not something that the population of Tamil Nadu and other southern states have quite yet embraced. Certainly they want a united India and perhaps a strong India, but they want their voice to be a part of that message not on the fringes of Indian politics.

In terms of India's neighbors I doubt it will make any difference whether the Congress or the BJP are in power. Certainly the BJP may wish to continue its niggling with Pakistan but they may well have learned that in the recent round of exchanges Imran Khan of Pakistan seems to have outwitted the accomplished and seasoned Narendra Modi. It would be interesting if Modi went ahead and changed the status of Indian Kashmir the backlash may well be something he then cannot blame Pakistan off. Either way these elections, barring Modi's attempt to play the 'war with Pakistan' card, regional and international issues have been totally absent from the political speeches.

In sense rising unemployment, and managing an economy that has become enormous with its own challenges, and finally a need to define India's economic partnerships in a broader context are imperatives that who ever is elected will need to address.