Hamas, Israel and the Tragedy Gaza will become.

 

Fifty years after the Yom Kippur war of October 1973, almost to the date (October 6th) Hamas launched a surprise attack from Gaza across the border into Israel. The military excursion by Hamas occurred at a time when optimism for a normalisation of relations between Saudi Arabia and Israel was building up. While one may wonder as to the timing of this attack there is a broader perspective which has been stirring the pot towards heightened tensions for sometime now. The present military conflict that has exploded in Gaza is not a Palestine-Israeli conflict but essentially a Hamas- Israeli conflict. 

The Hamas attack galvanises Israeli opinion behind a beleaguered Prime Minister Netanahyu as Israel has always viewed its security a matter of paramount importance. The result has been a growing call for retribution for the killing of Israelis by the Hamas fighters. While a ground invasion of Gaza is very much on the cards the wanton aerial attacks have pretty much flattened large swaths of residential areas in an over populated Gaza. Clearly the meaning of 'measured response' has been sidelined in the ferocity of Israeli reprisals which suggest that two wrongs don't make a right. 

To students of history this recent outbreak of hostilities is no surprise. Since 2006 when Hamas had taken control of the administration of the Gaza strip the blockade of Gaza commenced from both Israel and Egypt. While humanitarian supplies and fuel to run the only power plant were allowed, Gaza's ability to export goods and agricultural produce were severely curtailed. In addition excise and custom collections from the Israeli side of the crossing were done by the Israelis and since 2010 have never been paid to either the Hamas in Gaza or the Palestinian Authority in Ramallah. The result has been no money for the administration of Gaza and given the conflict between the Palestinian Authority and Hamas there has been no incentive for this matter to be resolved. 

It is no surprise that the effect of 13 years of blockade would be a sense of denial and frustration. Thus when the incident at Al Aqsa Mosque happened towards in April 2023 the reaction was an explosion of this frustration and the resultant attack on Israel by Hamas started with small scale rocket attacks. While this was not the first attack by Hamas neither was the Al Aqsa mosque incident the first provocation by the Israeli side. Indeed during 2023 and before the recent violence Israel forces have killed over 247 Palestinians. There is frustration that since 2000 there has been a lack of progress on a comprehensive peace settlement between all sides to this conflict. Since the 2003 Palestinian elections the schism within the Palestinians has become all the more obvious as Hamas as emerged as the most popular party in Gaza. 

The current situation has to be seen a gross failure on the part of all parties to seek a lasting solution to the problems of Palestine. The fact that statehood for Palestine has been in limbo for decades and Israel's departure from the two state concept, which was a condition of normalisation of relations between Palestinians and Israeli's, adds to state of flux within the politics of Palestine. The expansionist policy of the Israeli state with new settlements and the occupation of new areas within what was Palestinian land, even after the various accords which were designed to demarcate the boundaries has not helped matters. 

As bombs rain down on Gaza and Hamas retaliates with rockets into Israel the question remains 'Where do we go to from here?' 

There is no doubt that the civilians mostly in Gaza will carry the brunt of the suffering from this war. Indeed, for Israeli's the shock of the Hamas attack and the killing of 1,400 of its citizens is a massive security set back for the government of Israel. The unfolding of events will be complicated and difficult but the following could be the outcomes.

1. Israel will continue to chock Gaza with a total blockade and cut off food, water, medical supplies and fuel. This they hope will cause an exodus of civilians (who they feel the Hamas is using as a human shield) leaving Gaza to then house only the Hamas fighters.

2. After a complete starvation of Gaza and the exodus of civilians the ground invasion of Gaza will start. 

3. From here on things will get complicated. Even with overwhelming forces the eradication of Hamas fighters will be a long, protracted and bloody war. If the operation is not swift the dynamics of war will change perceptions within the Israeli public. Long protracted invasions always result in this as we have seen in Iraq and Afghanistan. 

4. There are voices within Israel who are calling for a total annexation of the Gaza strip and while not an elegant or viable solution it is a possiblity one should not ignore. 

5. If annexation is discarded as non feasible. which is truly the case, then the question remains what happens to the Gaza strip after an Israeli pull out? Is the area handed over to the Palestinian Authority who may have an uphill task to rebuild their image and trust with the people of Gaza who rejected them in 2003! On the other hand it is likely that even though Hamas may be defeated as a fighting force it may well remain as a political player within Palestinian politics. 

6. On a broader regional basis Israel alone cannot appeal to its new found Arab friends to intervene for peace. On the other hand without a doubt the United States has lost its position as an honest broker in the peace process. Indeed Saudi Arabia, Qatar and UAE would play a front role in the rebuilding of a destroyed Gaza, but their ability to influence political outcomes will largely depend upon how Israel shapes it policy towards a lasting peace. 

As a closing note there cannot be any joy amongst any humanist seeing images of women and children being killed on either side of this fighting. There will be many who will comment on who has suffered more, the Palestinians or the Israeli, the truth is that one woman, one child killed in this conflict is one too many. 

Senselessly Barbaric

The ferocity of the attacks by Israel, its use of white phosphorus on civilian populations, its total disregard for women and children dying in Gaza all indicate a rabid barbarism that has not been seen in modern times, all the more as Israel tries so desperately to take the moral high ground on this issue. In the first place it was Israel who on Nov 4, 2008 first raided into Gaza killing Hamas fighters in the raid, and thus broke the ceasefire, there had been no rocket attacks at that point since the last ceasefire. It is convenient to claim that eight years of rocket attacks have caused this invasion is nothing but a spin. While it was acknowledged through the six month ceasefire Hamas has made efforts to stop rocket attacks into Israel there were the odd rouge attack which, even the Human Rights Watch said were hard to stop.

When Israel reinforced the blockade of Gaza on December 19, bringing down the supply trucks to a mere 70 trucks that were allowed in, instead of the 500 hundred a day needed to sustain the population of Gaza, the ceasefire had effectively ended. Irrespective of this technicality, and even assuming the Hamas are entirely to blame for the attacks and the collapse of the ceasefire, how can collective responsibility be set onto the entire population of Gaza? Of the 900 killed the actual number of Hamas fighters are a small percentage, so much so that after the incident of Beit Zaitoun where 30 women and children were killed in a missile attack on a building where the previous day Israeli troops had herded the families in on grounds of it being 'safe', one can only assume that war crimes would be an appropriate word for the way the Israeli army has conducted itself.

The question of the conduct of the war cannot be justified merely on grounds that the Hamas started the war, this is a misplaced logic as it assumes therefore Israel is absolved of any responsibility of the way it conducts the military operation. Israel cannot simply say because of the rockets it attacks it is now morally acceptable to kill women and children in Gaza. Once Israeli spin doctors realized there is just so much that can be blamed on the rocket attacks they changed their tune to say Hamas fighters are using women and children as human shields. This is such a weak and feeble argument that international observers have scoffed at the mere gall of Israeli commentators to even suggest this.

When in an article for Postglobal I used the word 'genocide' I was told it was was using terms that were no appropriate. Perhaps I can concede that, but I would need to know then what is the current horror described as? I am not asking for explanations of what Hamas did, I know they have not been exemplary citizens of the world community. I am asking has Israel lived up to its claim that it takes care 'not to target women and children.'?

World reaction has been appalling as far as the governments of the world are concerned. The people with conscious have spoken up, in the streets of Europe, the US, and Asia, but where is the voice of governments. The Arab League is as good as a society of eunuchs who cannot even condemn the Israeli action without worrying about what the Americans will tell them. As for the US government the measure of ethics has been long since discarded and its shocking that President elect Obama has not even spoken up about the Israeli action. Clearly there is more hope, perhaps misplaced, on him changing the tone of what is happening than anyone else.

For the Arab governments, the Egyptians are playing honest broker half hoping that Hamas is weakened to the point where it is ineffective, in the process ignoring the carnage on the streets of Gaza. The rest of the Arab world is caught up in their own issues or at best ignoring them and none of them have seriously told the US to exert pressure on the Israeli's to stop military actions in Gaza, or atleast end them against civilians.

To consider an enduring peace as a possibility is now all the more difficult as the people of Gaza have suffered to an extent where their hearts are hard and the neglect of the world has become all the more obvious. I merely wish to ask if, whatever the reasons, in a war 40% of the people killed were women and children and this was in Europe, or American or Israeli families had suffered this way would everyone have been quiet. Where is the conscious of the American media which questioned the Mai Lai massacre in Vietnam, where soldiers were convicted for shooting down women and children.

http://palestinianvoice.files.wordpress.com/2008/03/gaza_mother_dead_children.jpg


This is the image that we need to remember.

The Gaza Genocide

The Israeli President, when recently asked about Israeli's response to rocket attacks by Hamas, said that when would it become disproportionate, after ten rockets, hundred rockets or a thousand rockets. Well its therefore normal to ask the question when will the Israeli Defense Force understand that they have killed one, two, ten, or a hundred children too many and then they can say the objective of silencing rockets will be achieved. I know many readers will find this offensive for me to say, but quite frankly for Israeli's to allow their government and army to kill so many civilians in Gaza is pure and simple genocide. I am not for one moment saying that Hamas firing rockets was fine, in my eyes both acts of violence are wrong and misplaced. However, it has always seemed to me that Hamas have been always shooting these rockets more to bolster their own image amongst their own people rather than really inflict any serious damage on Israeli citizens, considering not one person was killed in these attacks. The issue of who started this war first will never be resolved and it can be traced back to decades if not centuries. The issue is that both sides need to understand that innocent people are dying and there is not other way about seeing this.

As for the outcome of the Gaza invasion there will obviously be a weakening of Hamas, perhaps even their removal from the power structure, and they may return to more underground tactics. However, it is still not clear whethere Hamas has been marginalized enough by the current invasion for Palestinians in Gaza to actually reject them. Perhaps if the effect of the invasion was actually dead Hamas fighters rather the children and civilians then perhaps the ensuing discomfort of a military occupation would make Gazans realize that indeed the problem is the Hamas. However, at the moment the Israeli overhanded brutality has meant that Gazans relate their suffering directly to the Israeli invasion and not the actions of the Hamas. Eventually a stalemate will be achieved when Israel will realize the Hamas fighters they went after actually got away, or were not as badly effected as hoped for and then perhaps an honorable withdrawal will be done.

A wider war is not possible mainly because the Arab countries have either feebly condemned the invasion or in the case of Hosni Mubarak's Egypt and the Palestinian Authorities Mahmmod Abbass actually blamed the Hamas for their own political motives. If the string is drawn to when the rocket attacks started then yes Hamas is to be blamed, if the string is to be drawn further back then Israel, and to some extent Egypt's, controlled blockade of the Gaza strip are perhaps the starting point for this round of conflict. Either way, the issue remains that a wider war cannot be possible given Israel's military might, and the Arab leaderships inability to even agree to switch off the oil tap for one hour. (not that oil embargoes bring any solutions).

A Hamas defeat? Well on one side one could argue that how do you militarily defeat an army that tends to dissolve into society when it chooses too. This is not some large standing army with armored tanks and planes. So in the sense of a military defeat of Hamas its more likely that they will be weakened and perhaps politically out flanked but defeated seems a bit hard to see given the nature of this movement.

Overall the Palestinians and the Israelis have a sorry story to tell for themselves. Decades of conflict, and not a single step worth mentioning towards peace for their people. While the Palestinian leadership lacks the courage to carve a new deal with Israel based on realities, Israel continues to be an occupier in most of the territory to seized in 1967 and its recent actions in Gaza are shameful and a war crime. So in a sense both sides will continue to behave like criminals and the world leadership doesn't have the conscious or the will to tell them otherwise.