A distant view: Trump Impeachment.

Being outside the fray of the daily US political scene has its advantages, the main one being having a distant view without the emotional drama that dictates whether you are pro or anti Trump. It allows one to see the issues without the political parties bias that has become the hallmark of a divided US political diaspora. The Trump impeachment issue is headline news, and the obvious question is whether he will be impeached and removed from office.

There is no denying that the process of impeachment itself has totally unhinged a President who was not entirely stable to begin with. It is often touted that it is his style and straight forwardness that in the hallmark of his behavior. His supporters often say 'he says it like it is', a trait they say that is removed from the political figures in Washington and it endears him to his political base. being straight forward and being vindictive are not the same, being politically savvy and telling lies are the not the same, expecting loyalty and dumping the people who went on a limb for him are opposites. But in the Trump world it does not matter. Its the world according to Trump and no one else.

However, the impeachment process makes it all different because it more than just washing the dirty laundry in public and on television. It could have the consequences of being removed from office. Herein lies the problem as given the US system his impeachment by the House of Representatives will mean then the Senate, which is controlled by the Republicans, will then hold a trial to determine if indeed he should be removed from office. Currently there is a slim chance of that even though it would mean seven Republicans in the Senate voting for impeachment.

There is a possibility that Trump quite relishes the idea of the impeachment as he knows he can hold the Republicans in the Senate to use their majority to not remove him from office, while the impeachment battle allows him to rally his base and remain the focus as the only national issue in the 2020 elections. However, a great deal of the impeachment process and its success will depend upon the validity of the arguments. Some Republican Senators are also mindful of the changing mood within their constituencies where in recent elections the Democrats have made inroads. Also the Democratic voters who were swayed to the Trump camp in 2016 are the ones suffering most from Trumps trade wars and GOP Senators are going to need something persuasive enough to voter against Trump in the Senate.

There is ample evidence emerging through the impeachment process that President Trump did indeed commit impeachable offenses. It must be remembered that since President Reagan almost every US President has had some impeachment resolution table against him in the House of Representatives, and most of them have faltered or fallen by the wayside. This impeachment resolution certainly has the legs to make it to the Senate. While one may argue that the Democrats may be rushing things, which is a cause for concern, eventually it is in the Senate that the trial will reveal the depth of the allegations.

It is unlikely that once the impeachment trial is in the Senate that the GOP will be able to pressure Trump into either stepping down or at least stepping down from a re-election bid in 2020. The outcome in the Senate will mostly likely be a win for Trump, given the slim majority the GOP has, but the extent of the damage it will do to him in the 2020 election will depend on the weight of the evidence that will come out at the trial stage. One can argue that there were other more stronger arguments for impeachment, but this one has the more credible witnesses and based on the testimony thus far on judicial principles Trumps goose is cooked. However, in the Senate no matter who strong the legal arguments to remove him from office the matter will most likely be decided on political considerations; i.e party lines.

For the Democrats the aim might well be expose Trump and his wrong doing in the eyes of the public to such an extent that even if they don't succeed in the Senate they may well have damaged him in the 2020 elections.  This is only a partially viable strategy as his political base does not care what Trumps personal character or conduct is, and the swing voters may well be influenced by the economy more than by Trump asking political favors from foreign leaders. While the economy in some sectors has worked to Trumps advantage, i.e job numbers, the trade war has begun to take its toll in the largely rural vote bank which was Trumps election backbone.

On a more theoretical level one has to ask to what extent will Trumps supporters go to excuse him his shortcomings or wrong doing? Was he right in saying that he could shoot someone on Times Square and his supporters would still vote for him? He has politically shot many of his former supporters and his political base did not seem to balk. He has demeaned the stature of the Oval Office and all it stands for to petting tirades on Twitter and instead of putting people off, his supporters have cheered him on. Perhaps the political psyche of US politics was always divisive and politicians were mean little souls pretending to be nice and all that Trump has done is bring that reality to the forefront.

The impeachment process in this respect will only give up the substance to what we all knew that the man was not fit of the office he holds. Whether that opinion is not substantiated by impeachable acts will resonate in the minds of people according to where people stand on the scale of USA's divide political platform. His supporters could not care less, the vast middle class swing voters may well have got fed up with the politics anyways to care. In the end it is unlikely that the impeachment process will succeed in the Senate and in the end the trial of Donald J Trump will be at the elections of 2020.