With over 5 million people infected world wide, and over and close to 350,00 people dead from the COVID 19 virus, the world has been taking stock of the social, economic and psychological impact of this silent killer. Under the pressure of their economies caving in many countries have taken small and tentative steps to reopen their societies in the hope of preventing an economic free fall and yet not having a new explosion of infections. It is to say the least a tricky situation. However, the global numbers are interesting to read and merely looking at the infection cases as a barometer of success or failure against this virus can be misleading.
It is clear that countries that took measures quickly to close down social interaction AND backed this up with widespread testing and isolation have had the best success so far. It would be fair to say, therefore, that these countries are best place for a gradual lifting of their lock down measures, even in graduated stages as they have a better perspective of the ground reality of the impact of the virus. One key indicator is "Test Per Million of Population". In short how many people per million have been tested for the virus. At the end of the blog is a table of countries with key data including the total number of tests per million people and the percentage of tests carried out in relation to the total population. (China's total test figures are not revealed but we do know the city of Wuhan, where the epidemic started from was entirely tested.)
Looking at the data it is clear that smaller countries were, generally, able to test more people than the more populous nations. UAE and Denmark with populations of 9.4m and 5.8m respectively managed to test 16.2% and 9.4% respectively. Hard hit Spain and Italy managed in the 5-6% of total population tested which in comparison to the larger countries is respectable. United States with 4.5% people tested, UK 5.1%, Germany 4.3% do have some catching up to do in terms of testing. New Zealand, Russia and Portugal all rank respectably above the 5% level of testing.
It follows that countries which top the table in terms of the percentage of population tested will be relatively more confident that not only have their measures paid off but they can take a reasonable risk in a gradual easing of the lock down in their countries. In general it would seem countries with over 7.5% of testing levels sit more comfortably, if there can be such a thing, than those who are struggling to test even 1% of their population.
It would be interesting to relate this data to the population density per square mile and see how the injections have been spread in more densely populated countries and how testing has measured up in those countries. What is more alarming, and perhaps the fear of a wider global infection, is that countries like India, Pakistan, Iran, Bangladesh all have very low testing levels. Iran comes in at 1% of testing, India 0.2% and both Pakistan and Bangladesh below that. Considering these countries make up about 1.6 billion people it is certain that if testing was carried out on a wider front their infection rates would be much higher. Sadly the political leadership of these countries is claiming that they have a small infection rate compared to the population and hence lock down measures can be relaxed. This is the red herring in the pile and we have to be careful to jump conclusions that a low infection rate means victory over the pandemic. That argument can only make sense if the testing is done at a higher percentage of the population.
It can also be seen that sparsely populated countries like New Zealand can see that the multiplier effect of infections in densely populated countries does not apply to them and they can see some measure of success given the level of testing and isolation that has been achieved. In the United States we may see this pattern repeated in much of rural America. However, densely populated cities, as we saw in New York, will have to achieve close to 10% of testing before they can seriously begin to think of a relaxation of the lock down measures.
What this data tells us is that countries who have tested widely and were quick to put in lock down and isolation measures will manage an earlier return to normality, as was seen in Wuhan, New Zealand, UAE, Bahrain, Iceland, Denmark and a few others. In the UK it would seem in terms of London the higher testing and isolation has helped reduce the spread of the virus, however, arguably the same measures did not get implemented across UK early enough to see a nationwide impact. One could argue that UK may have to reach close to 9-10% of population tested as a level to breathe easier.
United States, perhaps the one country that acted way to late and only in the last three weeks have been playing catch. One would suspect that there is worse to come in the major cities of USA before things can get better. The situation is all the more compounded by the political pressure across American to reopen the economy and ease or remove the lockdowns. This, in my opinion, is setting the stage for a second wave of infections which might well emerge in August. The data, as analyzed for China, New Zealand, Iceland and others with moderate success against the virus suggests that if three things are done together and very strictly then the whole cycle of this virus takes and average 86 days to start showing a reversal of the trends. How much longer to declare complete victory remains to be seen. These three measures are a) TESTING, b) LOCKDOWN, and c) ISOLATION OF POSITIVE TESTED PEOPLE. These are the minimum essential tools to begin combating the COVID 19 virus.
The more dangerous writing on the wall is the way this pandemic will pan out in India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Indonesia, and other low tested but highly populated countries. Assuming that in India 5% testing was achieved and given the current ratios that 3-5% of tested people show they have the symptoms of the virus it suggested that India alone could have 2.5 million cases! While there is a fleeting hope that before this pandemic reveals it full impact through more testing people that the virus may have mutated itself to the point where it cannot spread anymore. As of today there is no scientific evidence that the warmer months or some self mutating death of the virus will take place. We must therefore brace ourselves for the worst to come. Easing the lock downs without proper examination may result in some countries with a second wave of infections.
| BY percentage test rank | ||||||||||||||
| Country, | Total | Tests/ | Population | %age POP tested | ||||||||||
| Other | Tests | |||||||||||||
| World | ||||||||||||||
| 1 | Iceland | 58,225 | 170,739 | 341,018 | 17.1% | |||||||||
| 2 | Bahrain | 283,884 | 167,519 | 1,694,642 | 16.8% | |||||||||
| 3 | UAE | 1,600,923 | 162,071 | 9,877,923 | 16.2% | |||||||||
| 4 | Luxembourg | 68,107 | 108,990 | 624,891 | 10.9% | |||||||||
| 5 | Lithuania | 269,889 | 99,015 | 2,725,743 | 9.9% | |||||||||
| 6 | Denmark | 546,621 | 94,405 | 5,790,165 | 9.4% | |||||||||
| 7 | Spain | 3,556,567 | 76,071 | 46,752,999 | 7.6% | |||||||||
| 8 | Belgium | 788,110 | 68,031 | 11,584,564 | 6.8% | |||||||||
| 9 | Portugal | 689,705 | 67,621 | 10,199,578 | 6.8% | |||||||||
| 10 | Qatar | 192,484 | 66,931 | 2,875,845 | 6.7% | |||||||||
| 11 | Kuwait | 273,812 | 64,217 | 4,263,883 | 6.4% | |||||||||
| 12 | Russia | 8,945,384 | 61,300 | 145,928,315 | 6.1% | |||||||||
| 13 | Ireland | 295,626 | 59,940 | 4,932,053 | 6.0% | |||||||||
| 14 | Israel | 541,322 | 58,855 | 9,197,590 | 5.9% | |||||||||
| 15 | Italy | 3,482,253 | 57,586 | 60,470,472 | 5.8% | |||||||||
| 16 | Estonia | 75,779 | 57,129 | 1,326,447 | 5.7% | |||||||||
| 17 | New Zealand | 261,315 | 54,235 | 4,818,226 | 5.4% | |||||||||
| 18 | UK | 3,458,905 | 50,979 | 67,850,075 | 5.1% | |||||||||
| 19 | Singapore | 294,414 | 50,365 | 5,845,641 | 5.0% | |||||||||
| 20 | Belarus | 463,004 | 48,997 | 9,449,627 | 4.9% | |||||||||
| 21 | Australia | 1,245,062 | 48,885 | 25,469,064 | 4.9% | |||||||||
| 22 | Austria | 405,341 | 45,032 | 9,001,207 | 4.5% | |||||||||
| 23 | USA | 14,893,561 | 45,022 | 330,806,424 | 4.5% | |||||||||
| 24 | Norway | 234,637 | 43,316 | 5,416,911 | 4.3% | |||||||||
| 25 | Switzerland | 372,146 | 43,032 | 8,648,175 | 4.3% | |||||||||
| 26 | Germany | 3,595,059 | 42,922 | 83,757,235 | 4.3% | |||||||||
| 27 | Canada | 1,479,838 | 39,244 | 37,708,187 | 3.9% | |||||||||
| 28 | Czechia | 403,358 | 37,672 | 10,707,014 | 3.8% | |||||||||
| 29 | Slovenia | 76,384 | 36,742 | 2,078,910 | 3.7% | |||||||||
| 30 | Kazakhstan | 671,774 | 35,822 | 18,753,268 | 3.6% | |||||||||
| 31 | Finland | 168,700 | 30,452 | 5,539,869 | 3.0% | |||||||||
| 32 | Slovakia | 159,059 | 29,135 | 5,459,382 | 2.9% | |||||||||
| 33 | Azerbaijan | 273,411 | 26,991 | 10,129,784 | 2.7% | |||||||||
| 34 | Chile | 488,041 | 25,553 | 19,099,374 | 2.6% | |||||||||
| 35 | Serbia | 220,344 | 25,209 | 8,740,747 | 2.5% | |||||||||
| 36 | Peru | 820,967 | 24,936 | 32,923,430 | 2.5% | |||||||||
| 37 | Djibouti | 23,140 | 23,457 | 986,480 | 2.3% | |||||||||
| 38 | Turkey | 1,832,262 | 21,749 | 84,244,944 | 2.2% | |||||||||
| 39 | France | 1,384,633 | 21,217 | 65,259,187 | 2.1% | |||||||||
| 40 | Sweden | 209,900 | 20,797 | 10,092,886 | 2.1% | |||||||||
| 41 | Saudi Arabia | 722,079 | 20,776 | 34,756,224 | 2.1% | |||||||||
| 42 | Poland | 779,576 | 20,596 | 37,850,650 | 2.1% | |||||||||
| 43 | Romania | 377,191 | 19,595 | 19,249,829 | 2.0% | |||||||||
| 44 | Mayotte | 5,200 | 19,112 | 272,084 | 1.9% | |||||||||
| 45 | Netherlands | 324,918 | 18,967 | 17,131,112 | 1.9% | |||||||||
| 46 | Bosnia and Herzegovina | 59,934 | 18,257 | 3,282,754 | 1.8% | |||||||||
| 47 | Armenia | 51,594 | 17,415 | 2,962,695 | 1.7% | |||||||||
| 48 | Hungary | 164,619 | 17,037 | 9,662,723 | 1.7% | |||||||||
| 49 | S. Korea | 826,437 | 16,121 | 51,264,841 | 1.6% | |||||||||
| 50 | Malaysia | 513,370 | 15,883 | 32,322,531 | 1.6% | |||||||||
| 51 | Kyrgyzstan | 100,488 | 15,430 | 6,512,696 | 1.5% | |||||||||
| 52 | Croatia | 62,422 | 15,196 | 4,107,668 | 1.5% | |||||||||
| 53 | Greece | 155,037 | 14,867 | 10,427,916 | 1.5% | |||||||||
| 54 | Oman | 72,000 | 14,140 | 5,092,104 | 1.4% | |||||||||
| 55 | Uzbekistan | 460,000 | 13,765 | 33,417,915 | 1.4% | |||||||||
| 56 | Panama | 58,240 | 13,520 | 4,307,539 | 1.4% | |||||||||
| 57 | North Macedonia | 25,528 | 12,253 | 2,083,382 | 1.2% | |||||||||
| 58 | El Salvador | 75,146 | 11,591 | 6,482,911 | 1.2% | |||||||||
| 59 | Bulgaria | 74,539 | 10,720 | 6,953,369 | 1.1% | |||||||||
| 60 | Moldova | 40,565 | 10,054 | 4,034,871 | 1.0% | |||||||||
| 61 | South Africa | 583,855 | 9,857 | 59,230,390 | 1.0% | |||||||||
| 62 | Iran | 818,917 | 9,763 | 83,880,266 | 1.0% | |||||||||
| 63 | Cuba | 94,060 | 8,304 | 11,327,291 | 0.8% | |||||||||
| 64 | Ukraine | 291,868 | 6,670 | 43,758,701 | 0.7% | |||||||||
| 65 | Dominican Republic | 69,608 | 6,423 | 10,836,671 | 0.6% | |||||||||
| 66 | Ghana | 197,194 | 6,361 | 31,002,078 | 0.6% | |||||||||
| 67 | Ecuador | 106,079 | 6,022 | 17,614,626 | 0.6% | |||||||||
| 68 | Thailand | 375,453 | 5,380 | 69,782,581 | 0.5% | |||||||||
| 69 | Colombia | 252,742 | 4,973 | 50,826,673 | 0.5% | |||||||||
| 70 | Iraq | 194,444 | 4,846 | 40,123,092 | 0.5% | |||||||||
| 71 | Gabon | 9,908 | 4,463 | 2,219,916 | 0.4% | |||||||||
| 72 | Morocco | 146,598 | 3,977 | 36,864,928 | 0.4% | |||||||||
| 73 | Brazil | 735,224 | 3,461 | 212,405,664 | 0.3% | |||||||||
| 74 | Argentina | 129,418 | 2,866 | 45,153,114 | 0.3% | |||||||||
| 75 | Philippines | 301,677 | 2,757 | 109,427,802 | 0.3% | |||||||||
| 76 | India | 3,033,591 | 2,200 | 1,378,604,014 | 0.2% | |||||||||
| 77 | Pakistan | 483,656 | 2,194 | 220,427,217 | 0.2% | |||||||||
| 78 | Japan | 271,201 | 2,144 | 126,513,796 | 0.2% | |||||||||
| 79 | Senegal | 35,016 | 2,097 | 16,694,358 | 0.2% | |||||||||
| 80 | Bolivia | 22,294 | 1,913 | 11,656,259 | 0.2% | |||||||||
| 81 | Guatemala | 31,427 | 1,758 | 17,879,798 | 0.2% | |||||||||
| 82 | Mexico | 219,164 | 1,702 | 128,792,446 | 0.2% | |||||||||
| 83 | Bangladesh | 253,034 | 1,538 | 164,519,918 | 0.2% | |||||||||
| 84 | Honduras | 14,790 | 1,496 | 9,887,829 | 0.1% | |||||||||
| 85 | Egypt | 135,000 | 1,322 | 102,125,693 | 0.1% | |||||||||
| 86 | Guinea | 14,407 | 1,100 | 13,092,620 | 0.1% | |||||||||
| 87 | Indonesia | 256,946 | 940 | 273,223,931 | 0.1% | |||||||||
| 88 | Ivory Coast | 23,444 | 891 | 26,305,483 | 0.1% | |||||||||
| 89 | Afghanistan | 31,718 | 817 | 38,831,756 | 0.1% | |||||||||
| 90 | Nigeria | 44,458 | 216 | 205,570,171 | 0.0% | |||||||||
| 91 | Sudan | 401 | 9 | 43,735,987 | 0.0% | |||||||||
| 92 | China | 1,439,323,776 | 0.0% | |||||||||||
