In modern times no crisis has been as devastating and extensive in its effect as has been the Coronavirus. Business shutdowns, social distancing, sanitization, suspension of international travel, closure of public places and a halt to sports events are just some of the immediate effects of this virus that come to mind. Skeptics will tell us that the flu kills more people than this virus, and had the plague been in the era of social media the effect of our social consciousness would have been far greater.
Indeed social media has added to the over all way we see this pandemic as billions of people has talking, sharing and giving out news through Facebook, Twitter, Instagram and many other platforms. In a sense this attention has also been good that it has woken many people from a carefree slumber to take the coronavirus seriously.
In the United Arab Emirates attention to the virus and talk about it has been widespread. However the response of the authorities to the coronavirus has, by and large, been good and effective. The measures to close schools early, stop events and limit social outings has been graduated upwards each day in a response to the pandemics progress too. However, under the surface, testing has been widespread and most of all awareness has been across the board. Super markets have taken to sanitizing the trolleys after each customer has used it, staff are generally wearing gloves and masks and even at the beach I have seen the municipality workers cleaning up and taking the usual precautions.
On Friday I visited a riding school to pick up someone and was not allowed in. He had to come out, sign out with security and few hours later when I dropped him off he was tested at the entrance. He later told me every second day all the staff at the riding center, which is owned by the Government of Sharjah, are tested. All this is being done without the hysteria we are seeing in many other countries.
Speaking to a doctor, who is knowledgable about such viruses he informed me that whole a majority of those who test positive will recover from the coronavirus, the threat is that unlike other viruses this spreads very fast and usually for the first seven days does so without showing symptoms. While those with weak immune systems and generally the elderly are most vulnerable, the virus as of today has no vaccine readily available and perhaps will not for another year, given the long period of testing and approval of such medicines. Doctors in Australia have reported good results from using a quinine based vaccine used for malaria in patients who has shown serious symptoms of the coronavirus. The current coronavirus is named COVID 19 and has a 70% genetic similarity to the SARS virus some years back. It must be noted that even a common cold is technically a coronavirus; each strain of the corona virus differs in the way the cells attach to the receptor cells of the person infected and hence this determines their unique identification; like MERS, SARS and now COVID 19.
It is too soon to make any predictions of which of the current experiments will work, but the message coming out is prevention is the best cure. In this respect kudos does go to the UAE authorities for their measured response in limiting activities where people could be exposed to the risk of the corona virus. Cinema's, entertainment parks, beaches (since today) and schools being closed and many offices adopting a policy of 'work from home' are all very good measures. I do personally wonder why shopping malls have yet not been closed down, even though admittedly there has been a serious drop in the footfall at the malls, it still remains the one public place that is still open.
As these closures took place there was the inevitable rush at the stores and for about four days it was not uncommon to see empty shelves in almost every large hyper market. By Saturday afternoon things had returned to normal and the country's leadership made a public statement that there is no need for any panic as there are enough food and supplies to overcome this pandemic. Judging by the speed at which empty shelves were restocked indicates this to be entirely true.
A bio-medical model has been used to determine the pandemics profile. Using the Wuhan data it is interesting to note that this model about two weeks ago predicted that if the measures of testing and control are effective then within 86 days a downward trend in the infections will show up and after another 21 odd days the pandemic can said to have been contained. The Wuhan cases were first identified in December 2019 so it seems the bio-medical model seems right when around March 19th 2020 a slow down of new cases was reported from Wuhan in China.
This implies if the countries take quick action and widespread and effective action then perhaps within a period of 110 odd days the effects of the virus within a country can be brought under control. One of the key elements of this action has to be testing because it allows one to profile an infected person in terms of his/her contacts over the previous 48 hours. Then through quick isolation of the people (can be self isolation) who the infected person has been with the spread is contained. On a wider front the quick reaction of closing the places where contacts are frequent indicates a throw of a wide fishing net that ensures slowing down the spread of the virus.
I believe that the measures taken in the UAE seem effective and it is highly likely that within a period of 100 odd days the spread of the virus might well slow down and contained.
Sunday, March 22, 2020
Monday, March 2, 2020
India under BJP
Soon after India's abrogation of Article 370, which gave a special constitutional status to Kashmir, India enforced a lock down on Indian controlled Kashmir. It arrested political leaders and activists and shut down internet and control of movement into Kashmir was tightly restricted. Since the August 5th, 2019 shut down the situation has been pretty much the same, with some restoration of internet and telephone services, but with an overwhelming presence of Indian military the situation in Indian Kashmir can hardly be described as normal.
In 1999, at the height of the Kargil war between India and Pakistan, Kashmir was considered the hottest spot for conflict in the world. Today after over 200 days of what the UN special rapporteur described as a 'draconian shut down', there is, internationally, an eerie silence about the situation in Indian Kashmir. At the height of the crisis the Indian government itself admitted that 4,000 people had been arrested of whom 200 were politicians. While there has been a release of some prisoners, the numbers are still significantly high.
Prime Minister Modi and Interior Minister Amit Shah's move on Kashmir was not a bolt out of the blue but part of a strategy encapsulated in their party, BJP's, agenda. In the years leading up to the recent Indian action in Kashmir, New Delhi embarked on an aggressive public relations strategy highlighting their economic position, trade relations and repositioned their foreign relations with countries who could possibly be foremost in making a noise against the Indian treatment of the largely Muslim population of Kashmir. It is therefore not surprising that little governmental condemnation of India has been expressed in recent months.
Indeed Human Rights organizations, the various sections of the UN and leading NGO's have been more forthright about concern over India's Kashmir actions and the recent Citizenship Act (which deprives millions of their Indian nationality). The major powers, like United States, Russia, the United Kingdom and France have been hesitant to criticize India directly and have, on the Kashmir issue, refrained from castigating New Delhi of its draconian measures.
On a broader perspective there is concern that philosophically and ideologically, India under Modi and the BJP, has gone through a paradigm shift where democracy has been replaced with oligarchy, where a radical nationalist agenda in which an ‘India for Hindus only’ agenda has infested the psyche of the Indian majority, leaving over 250 million religious minorities at risk. The fabric of a secular India, which many of us admired, even if imperfect, is being rewoven into a Hindustan identity where even history is being rewritten to emphasize that India is Hindustan, which by the new definition means that other than Hindus everyone else is a second class citizen.
The history of India, much like any nation is layered through centuries of different predominant currents of cultural, social and religious persuasion. From ancient times the influence of Buddhism , Hinduism, Jainism, Muslim and British rule have moulded the India of today. Just as Any country cannot ride itself of its ancient past India too cannot rename its identity as simply as it renamed cities like Bombay to Mumbai. A secular India ensured that not only is the past history preserved it also allowed the segments of India's multi ethnic and multi cultural and diverse religious population to prosper and coexist side by side.
The India that Modi and the BJP are forging is inherently based upon a trait of hate, which harvested will only yield blood as the recent riots in New Delhi have shown. A lesson of history has shown that a misplaced sense of nationalism is a close cousin of fascism and this genie is not easy to put back into the bottle. Germany under Nazism, Italy under Mussolini, are just two examples of what happens when nationalism turned on its head can cause immense social and political damage.
The more telling question is whether Indians in general realize that the strength of their secular ethos has been sapped by the BJP and the rhetoric that rings in the streets of many Indian towns and cities under this new dogma will not bring unity to India but more discord. India is not a homogenous nation and its many diverse languages, customs and ethnic shades found a commonality in India's secular colors. Under BJP and Modi they are playing dangerous games with the same threads that bound Indian society together and when snapped the repercussions will not be pleasant for India.
India's strength was its diversity, the fact that Sonia Ghandi, an Italian by birth and upbringing could integrate into the India that Ghandi and Nehru envisioned and not only integrate but lead one of its major political parties, spoke of the power of India's secular tolerance. When replaced with intolerance the very Indian-ness of India becomes threatened and this is what Indians must wake up to and correct before its too late.
In 1999, at the height of the Kargil war between India and Pakistan, Kashmir was considered the hottest spot for conflict in the world. Today after over 200 days of what the UN special rapporteur described as a 'draconian shut down', there is, internationally, an eerie silence about the situation in Indian Kashmir. At the height of the crisis the Indian government itself admitted that 4,000 people had been arrested of whom 200 were politicians. While there has been a release of some prisoners, the numbers are still significantly high.
Prime Minister Modi and Interior Minister Amit Shah's move on Kashmir was not a bolt out of the blue but part of a strategy encapsulated in their party, BJP's, agenda. In the years leading up to the recent Indian action in Kashmir, New Delhi embarked on an aggressive public relations strategy highlighting their economic position, trade relations and repositioned their foreign relations with countries who could possibly be foremost in making a noise against the Indian treatment of the largely Muslim population of Kashmir. It is therefore not surprising that little governmental condemnation of India has been expressed in recent months.
Indeed Human Rights organizations, the various sections of the UN and leading NGO's have been more forthright about concern over India's Kashmir actions and the recent Citizenship Act (which deprives millions of their Indian nationality). The major powers, like United States, Russia, the United Kingdom and France have been hesitant to criticize India directly and have, on the Kashmir issue, refrained from castigating New Delhi of its draconian measures.
On a broader perspective there is concern that philosophically and ideologically, India under Modi and the BJP, has gone through a paradigm shift where democracy has been replaced with oligarchy, where a radical nationalist agenda in which an ‘India for Hindus only’ agenda has infested the psyche of the Indian majority, leaving over 250 million religious minorities at risk. The fabric of a secular India, which many of us admired, even if imperfect, is being rewoven into a Hindustan identity where even history is being rewritten to emphasize that India is Hindustan, which by the new definition means that other than Hindus everyone else is a second class citizen.
The history of India, much like any nation is layered through centuries of different predominant currents of cultural, social and religious persuasion. From ancient times the influence of Buddhism , Hinduism, Jainism, Muslim and British rule have moulded the India of today. Just as Any country cannot ride itself of its ancient past India too cannot rename its identity as simply as it renamed cities like Bombay to Mumbai. A secular India ensured that not only is the past history preserved it also allowed the segments of India's multi ethnic and multi cultural and diverse religious population to prosper and coexist side by side.
The India that Modi and the BJP are forging is inherently based upon a trait of hate, which harvested will only yield blood as the recent riots in New Delhi have shown. A lesson of history has shown that a misplaced sense of nationalism is a close cousin of fascism and this genie is not easy to put back into the bottle. Germany under Nazism, Italy under Mussolini, are just two examples of what happens when nationalism turned on its head can cause immense social and political damage.
The more telling question is whether Indians in general realize that the strength of their secular ethos has been sapped by the BJP and the rhetoric that rings in the streets of many Indian towns and cities under this new dogma will not bring unity to India but more discord. India is not a homogenous nation and its many diverse languages, customs and ethnic shades found a commonality in India's secular colors. Under BJP and Modi they are playing dangerous games with the same threads that bound Indian society together and when snapped the repercussions will not be pleasant for India.
India's strength was its diversity, the fact that Sonia Ghandi, an Italian by birth and upbringing could integrate into the India that Ghandi and Nehru envisioned and not only integrate but lead one of its major political parties, spoke of the power of India's secular tolerance. When replaced with intolerance the very Indian-ness of India becomes threatened and this is what Indians must wake up to and correct before its too late.
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