In a few days from now US Secretary of States Mike Pompeo and the US Chairman of Joint Chief of Staff, General Joseph Dunford will arrive in Islamabad for the first face to face contact between the new govenrment of Imran Khan and US officials. Initial comments from Washington are that South Asia is vital to US presence in the region and fighting terrorism is high on the agenda. After the Pakistan visit Pompeo will head to New Delhi where he will joined by the US Secretary of Defense Mattis for a two plus two meeting with Indian officials and a number of agreements, including defense matters are expected to be signed.
This visit can be viewed with an open mind considering that the PTI government has not yet dealt with specifics on their foreign policy agenda. To that extent the US will see the visit as exploring the landscape of the PTI government on issues of terrorism, stability in Afghanistan and gauge the acceptance of the new government by the powerful Pakistan military. The Indian meetings by US officials could well be seen as a pressure tactic to let Pakistan's new government know that India and the US can forge a relationship which could not necessarily be in the best interests of Pakistan unless they tow the US line, especially on terrorism.
Imran Khan and his government a likely to view the issues fundamentally different from the way Pompeo and Washington see matters. In Khan's eyes the issue of fighting terrorism cannot result in Pakistan being a client state to the will of the US, or for that matter anyone. Does this mean they will continue with fighting terrorism? I would like to believe yes, but not in the way that the US would want a free hand in conducting operations on Pakistani soil. Imran is a fiercely independent person and to him respecting Pakistan's sovereignty will be paramount.
For the US the issue will be of trusting Pakistan's commitment to fight terrorism and their constant fear that to some extent there could be collaboration between Pakistani officials and the terrorists to fore warn them of impending attacks. General Bajwa and the military high command in the Pakistani military are radically different from the people who followed Gen Zia ul Haq and his Islamist agenda which did mean closeness to the Taliban. After the horrifying attacks on Pakistanis by the Afghan based Pakistan Taliban any notion of the military wanting to help these elements is out of the question. Imran is most likely going to convey this to the visitors and in a sense he has a better card to play. If the US does not accept the position of his government then he can simply say we will take care of what is within our borders and others look after their borders.
Unlike the PPP and PMLN governments before him Imran Khan has no misgivings that the US will be an evergreen ally of Pakistan. In his eyes the cost Pakistan has paid in over 54,000 casualties from the war on terror is far more than the $20 billion of aid given to Pakistan by the US. This does not mean he is not a realist. Pakistan does want stability in Afghanistan but he will be equally forceful to emphasize that Pakistan is also the victim of cross border attacks from Afghanistan. On the Indian side while Kashmir, like always will be discussed, it is more likely that Islamabad will do well to present the evidence of Indian interference in Baluchistan.
It is also clear that the US and India would know that with the CEPC agreement with China there is no doubt that China now has an economic and political interest in stability in Baluchistan, where the main port to be used by CPEC is based. India shelters one of the Baluch dissident leaders from where he has been trying to stir trouble in Baluchistan. I would not be surprised soon after Mr Pompeo leaves a high ranking visit from Beijing will emerge. It is natural that the closer India and the US become the closer will China and Pakistan be.
While we are not dealing with Cold War politics and alliances, there is a sense within Pakistan for some generations now that the US does not really regard its links to Islamabad as a high priority. Yet so long as US has a military presence in Afghanistan having Pakistan friend is vital to maintain supplies and support from and through Pakistan. Imran Khan has indicated that he would ike to work with Kabul on a new footing and this would mean an admission by them that terrorist elements from their side of the border do cross into Pakistan to commit heinous crimes. I do believe that as Pakistan and Afghanistan work out a better relationship the US will also see the utility of treating Pakistan more as an ally rather than as a lackey.
In essence Washington can see its relationship with Islamabad through the clouded glass of past perceptions, or it can accept that in the new vision of Pakistan Imran Khan and his government could present the opportunity for a fresh start. This will need a new approach to cooperation on issues of mutual concern and for its part it is more likely that Pakistan too will not rely on US economic and military aid as much as it has in the past. Pakistan will also have to show its commitment to a new approach to regional politics and a serious desire to reduce tensions in the region. While thorny issues with both Afghanistan and India may remain the embracing of dialogue and reducing tensions will determine the depth and sincerity of this new approach.
On a note of caution nothing major would come out of this first contact other than each getting a sense of the other side. I am also convinced that the US side might well be impressed that indeed a new Pakistan is emerging and with it they in Washington will have to also develop a new strategy for South Asia. I would imagine admitting that Pakistan has been a victim of terrorism also is a good start.
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