Third Umpire: My view of the World Cup Cricket 2019.

Cricket evokes passions comparable to any other sport, especially when it comes to the sub continent, from where four of the countries play in this years World Cup Cricket. As the first few matches of the current World Cup have got underway, with easy wins for some of the more predictable sides, we are reminded that the setting of a World Cup is always going to be one where there will be surprises. Interestingly, unlike a few decades ago, the style and technique of the one day game has evolved to the point where one cannot really consider and of the countries competing as minnows. On their day Afghanistan, as an example, can surprise one of the big power houses.

That said what does the outlook emerge for this World Cup.

England:

Clearly dubbed as the favorites based on their current form and the home ground advantage. But delving deeper into the side one cannot over look the fact that not only is the English team brimming with talent, its perhaps one of the best balanced sides. In all three departments of the game, batting, bowling and fielding, they have excelled in recent months. While one may argue that they peeked too soon with their comprehensive drubbing of Pakistan just before the World Cup started, I do believe they have more than enough in their tank to carry them into the last four.

Jos Butler and Joe Root anchor the batting well enough to be sure that till number 7 they have the strength to set high totals when batting first and yet deep enough in their batting to chase down totals. Their bowling attack is suited for the conditions and does not depend solely on the performance of one or two stars, giving them the variety to pin down most oppositions.

India:

Perhaps the only side which can claim the pedigree to take on England and be capable staking a claim to not only the final four but also perhaps winning the title this time. As much as the Virat Kohli is the talisman for the teams fortunes they do have a formidable batting that can cover for the team should Kohli have a bad day. Their bowling has been touted as one of the best, however, under pressure it can become brittle and it would be interesting to see how they tackle players like Jos Butler (England) or Chris Gayle (West Indies).

Yes the format of the tournament allows them a hiccup or so on the way to the final four. India knows too well that after the final four stage form and statistics are put aside as each team lifts their performance to another level (as they learned in the Champions Trophy final against Pakistan two years back). If India can hold their own on the big moments of this tournament then they would be worthy winners.


Australia:

While David Warner and Steve Smith return to the squad and bring in valuable experience, the Aussie batting does not seem to impress one as much as it would have four years ago. Their bowling is decent with Starc being the key 'go to bowler', and one would be curious to see how Nathan Lyon handles the conditions and the pressure. Yes there is Aaron Finch and Usman Khawaja to add to the batting but somehow I do not feel they are deep enough in their batting to make make a huge impact if Warner or Smith were to get out early.

Indeed, the experience of their bowling attack is good enough to handle the fifty-fifty matches, but facing the likes of England, India or West Indies top order batting onslaught the verdict is still out on how their attack would manage. If Australia have some lucky breaks they could make the top four but might be through the skin of their teeth.

South Africa:

On their day South Africa can be impressive in all departments of the game. The question is will they have enough of those good days. England's drubbing of them in the first match showed some serious chinks in their armor. Indeed it was perhaps the toughest match for them and its out of the way, but a batting that revolves around three main players, Amla, du Plessis, and de Kock, and a smattering of middle order sloggers cannot, in my opinion assure them of a strong showing in this tournament.

That said, with Rabada in their bowling line up, and the guile of Imran Tahir, and the experience of Steyn, South Africa provides interesting options to turn matches on their head through their penetrative bowling attack. On his day Rabada can simply change a game single handedly.

New Zealand:

I have always believed that balanced sides have the best chance to win the World Cup because of the format of the tournament is extended and individual performances from one or two stars can just carry you so far. The Kiwis have perhaps the most balanced side in the tournament after England. Their batting is strong and can set an early pace to an innings that assures them very respectable and challenging scores. Kane Williamson, Guptill, Nicholls, Munro can set the score board ablaze allowing the likes of Ross Taylor and other middle order players to pile on the pressure. The one failing of the side is that a failure at the top tends to trickle down the ranks.

The Kiwi bowling is a very balanced and attacking line up. While I do not consider their spin bowlers to be a serious threat, they could help in checking the run rate and tie the opposition down backed by one of the best fielding sides. I do feel if their batting performs at crucial moments they could make the last four.

Pakistan:

Its all a question of which Pakistan team will turn up not only for the tournament but for each of the matches. Mercurial and temperamental the team has both the bowling and batting talent to win this. But talent alone is not a guarantee for success as it needs planning an execution to get the job done. Babar Azam, Fakhar Zamman, Imam ul Haq can all be star players, the problem is can they all star on the same day, and match after match? In fairness in the past Pakistan's achilles heel was the failures of their batting which seems to have been fixed with very respectable scores in the recent English series. What let them down was their bowling much to the surprise of everyone considering their strong suite was always their bowling.

In my opinion the problem with the team has been a lack of direction and leadership. In the recent series against England the fast bowlers; known of their toe crunching yorkers, only managed 3% of their deliveries as yorkers! In addition the absence of an attack plan for each game showing up in operation suggests the bowlers were left to their own when in the middle of the track.

I personally doubt Pakistan will make the top four on their current form. However, should they have the right team turn up on each of the days ahead, then having made the last four, they could up their game to cause problems to any of the sides in this tournament.


Sri Lanka.

I would tend to think that the Sri Lanka team is in a rebuilding phase and while their bowling would be well above par, their mercurial batting line up will remain a chronic problem in this tournament where none of the bowling sides will give room for mistakes.

I doubt the team will make the last four though in this tournament do not rule out one or two upsets caused by the Lanka Lions.


Bangladesh.

A young side, passionate about their game suffer from a brittle batting and a bowling attack prone to leak runs. On the plus side their fielding is energetic and perhaps one of the best in the tournament. The format starts for them playing three of the strong sides England, South Africa and New Zealand, and losses against them could set the tone for their recovery.


Afghanistan:

Perhaps counted as the weakest side of the tournament, I would consider them worthy of one big surprise in the tournament. Their batting is moody but if they get a decent total on the board they have an excellent bowling attack to make the game interesting. One of the biggest things going for the Afghan team is their lack of fear against any of the teams and a team that is hard to rattle.

To sum up I feel the final four could be England, New Zealand, India, South Africa. Australia and Pakistan may just slip into the final four at the expense of New Zealand and/or South Africa. While its hard to predict from then on what would happen but my hunch is that England would be the final day winners.

A Tale of Two Horrors

Ramadan is a Holy Month for reflection, prayers and spiritual closeness to Allah; a month of fasting but also a month were patience and understanding and appreciating the message of Islam is utmost to Muslims. Clearly this was not the message that ISIS or its loosely affiliated groups wanted to give to the Muslims the world over. While there were scattered attacks elsewhere two of them stand out as the tale of horror; Dhaka shooting and the Baghdad blasts. Sure they follow the terrible attacks in Orlando and Istanbul but these two attacks need a fair bit of thought.

Baghdad Attack:

The awful attack in a shopping area of Baghdad killed over 200 Muslims who were busy shopping for the approaching Eid Festival; which is at the end of the month of fasting. For the people of Baghdad since 2003 there has been an undertone always of terror attacks, and this year alone it has been a vicious year of horror. In January 105 people were killed, February 66 killed, March 92 killed, April 32 killed, May 144 killed, June 15 killed, and July 215 plus killed. These attacks in the backdrop of major battlefield reversals for the ISIS in Fallujah and elsewhere in Iraq.

As the pace of attacks on ISIS has increased and have been more successful the battlefield in their eyes has moved to soft targets within the population of Iraq. I doubt given the disarray their command and control structure is in the ISIS would not be directing each attack with the traditional military intent. More likely for some time now the ISIS strategy seems to have been to have various militants prepared to carry out these attacks but leaving the timing and choice of the attacks to their local minders on the ground. These cells therefore would be operating under a very lose structure and little or no communication, other than within the cells, making interception and pre warning of the attacks impossible. This is precisely the most dangerous aspect of these attacks that a direct plan to stop each particular attack is quite difficult to implement.

The question remains what does the ISIS achieve from the political or military point of view?
Frankly from a political view such attacks actually alienate the populous from the ISIS even more given that the attacks kill Sunni, Shia and anyone who happens to be there. Militarily one could argue a small percentage of attacks were directly targeted at army and police targets, but of the 700 odd people killed this year in these attacks almost 80% very innocent civilians. So it would seem the purpose of the attacks is merely to give a message that ISIS may have suffered reversals on the battlefield but it has the ability to hit back whenever it wants.

Iraq is a fragmented country, a weak central government, sectarian discord and a propensity for violence on a scale that is unimaginable. One has to struggle to find a single strong unifying factor that can make Iraqi's, as a nation, say "ENOUGH". Somehow, as horrible as this attack was, I would hope this is the wake up call for the Iraqis to unify to bring peace to their land. Indeed this alone will not stop the attacks, a lot more effort has to be made to change the mind set of the people who get lured into the ISIS ideology, and indeed as ISIS loses foothold after foothold in the country one would imagine their ability to carry out the attacks would reduce.

Dhaka, Bangladesh:

I watch the TV and see images of the attackers posing in front of an ISIS flag, smiling, almost cynically prior to their carrying out their attack on a Dhaka eatery killing 20 people, mostly foreigners. What is alarming is that this attack is perhaps the first in the Indian subcontinent where direct allegiance to ISIS has been pledged by attackers before an attack. The radicalization of the youth in this manner is a surprise but can be explained by domestic political developments within Bangladesh. The Jammat i Islami (JI) party was aligned with a united Pakistan and during Bangladesh's war of Independence they sided with the Pakistan army. Since 2011, forty years after Independence, a series of legal steps were taken to deregister JI as a political party and from 2013 a number of its leaders were tried and sentenced for crimes related to the 1971 war of Independence.

In 2013 many of the JI followers took to the streets to protest the verdicts and attacked not only government buildings but also Hindu temples and other minorities. I believe that given the loss of their leadership and the sense of persecution by the government has driven these right wing elements into the hands of the ISIS recruiters. These attackers did not have the background and profile of the madrassa type indoctrinated youth, but came from middle class homes with a good education. I have always argued that an educated fanatic is the most difficult one to argue with because they have a sense of belief that they believe is intellectually well argued in their minds.


To me of the two trends the developments in Bangladesh are more serious as it indicates a policy and planning of attacks, coming from an educated militia of followers which are going to be hard to combat. This also ties into the passionate politics of Bangladesh and to the rank and file of the JI followers will be seen a just retribution for the verdicts against their leadership. One could argue that the trials of the JI leadership could have been handled differently, but then this is hindsight, for the moment the spectre of the ISIS finding a breeding ground for its twisted philosophy in the delta of Bengal is scary to say the least.