Pakistan Elections: Is it the turning point for Imran Khan?

In a few days time a nation of 193 million people will go to the polls, and if predictions are to be believed we could see a major shift in the direction of Pakistani politics. Between military governments, failed democratic processes, and managed democracy the losers have always been the people of Pakistan. Almost five decades ago, in a highly charged election they were promised a 'new Pakistan'. A year later, and after a bloody civil war, they got a cut up Pakistan and the beginning of a process of elected oligarchies, which having failed ushered in military rule. Another round of return to civilian rule and then the military stepped in again. The third time we expected something better and while still promised a new Pakistan we got an elected government ousted from power by the Supreme Court, its leaders in jail for corruption and yet again another election.

This election promises to be different because of a younger voter base and perhaps a more charged political process. Imran Khan, if the pundits are to be believed, might just be the man to win enough seats for his PTI to form a government. Imran Khan too promises a 'Naia' (new) Pakistan, where he believes democratic process, inclusive policies, rule of law and a crack down on corruption will be the hallmarks of his government. Some believe he holds the inside track because the military see in him a better option than the others.

Yet Imran Khan has patched together alliances with some political figures of other parties and welcomed them into his ranks which makes one wonder how much horse trading will be needed by him to secure victory and if so will it erode his populist agenda for a new Pakistan. To the liberal forward thinking Muslims his flirtations with the ultra conservative and even militant elements of the right wing Muslim groups is troublesome; something the military might not also take much favor with. To the nationalist amongst us his stance of not allowing drone strikes by foreign powers will ring positive to our ears. To the pragmatist the single most important thought will be if he can walk the talk.

I believe what Imran Khan has going for him in large measure is the fact that in financial matters he is considered basically honest. This is singularly the most important thing for many in Pakistan where they hear of the billions that has been stolen from the country. Whether Imran Khan can fight corruption and maintain the rule of law and courts side by side is to be seen. Some of his statements regarding opponents gives one the uneasy feeling that some old scores might be picked at the cost of a judicial process.


At  the end of the day if Imran Khan wins his ability to deliver will depend on the quality of the team he puts together. While at times he has shown, at least with his hospital project, that he can do that, one has to wonder if at the national stage he can find the right people. With a tendency to put himself in the limelight more as a focal point he will have to learn to be humble and bring to the front the depth of the leadership within his party and act more as the watchful eye to keep the focus on his promise for a new Pakistan.

His challenge will be an economy that is riddled with inefficiencies and corruption and to nourish the key drivers for economic performance. Over hauling a government machine which served its own ends rather than the people and to find a balance with the military that ensures it from keeping away from the political process will be an enormous challenge for the Khan. On the foreign relations side the task of not only improving the image of the country but also to find a cohesive direction to a foreign policy which for the past few decades has done nothing other than to be reactive.

At a societal level perhaps Imran Khan could be the only leader who can bring about a national consensus on the question of minorities within the country. A country where the divisions along religious and sectarian lines have reached dangerous proportions. We need someone to stop the rifts between the Sunni and the Shia, between the Muslims and the non Muslims and we need to emphasize and speak out against the wanton violence that some of the extremist elements within the country have brought to the streets of Pakistan.

If this is the Naia (new) Pakistan that can emerge from these elections and Imran Khan feels he has the best chance to deliver it then there cannot be a mincing of words on this matter. Not only a respect for the institutions of democracy has to be nourished but in many cases the rebuilding of these institutions has to take place. An investment into education and the eradication of intolerant views through education has to start. The role of women and their protection has to be at the forefront of this New Pakistan. The list is exhaustive as indeed is the task. But we must also realize that if like the promise of almost 50 years ago this descends into an oligarchy of political favoritism and misguided politics then the country will descend into a state of disrepair from which many decades of pain will emerge.

The Talibanization of Pakistan

When the Swat deal was done by Mr. Zardari and his rather ill informed government, I had written that this form of appeasement does not mean that the Taliban have been stopped, it only implies that they have discovered the formula of continued expansion. Thus their recent entry into Bunner district, a few rocket throws from Islamabad, comes as no surprise; indeed friends tell me more black and green turbaned youth are visible in Lahore then every before. Its almost like a Fifth column infiltrating society and given their religious accent know that opposition to them will be minimal and when needed the Taliban form of law 'Nizam-e-Addal' (System of Justice) will be meted out.

I recently saw a wonderful movie, Khuda Kay Liye (For the Sake of God) which portrays exactly the challenge we now see in Pakistan. While US statements that they would not wish to see Pakistan be held hostage by the Taliban are all fine and sweet rhetoric, the truth is that as the majority of Pakistani's do not want the Taliban in their own midst, it is they who must speak out. The People Party of Zardari and the Muslim League of Nawaz Sharif have never had an agenda of support for the Taliban and they combined hold the maximum public vote. It is therefore logical to assume, rightly, that it is these two political parties who have to speak out against what the Taliban is doing.

Well where is the solution then?

First with the Taliban spreading to Bunner, the Pakistan government should tell them the Swat deal is off, and it should establish its own effective rule over the Swat valley, and then if America really wants to help, a major program be started to rebuild roads and hospitals and schools (yes the Taliban destroyed 160 of them) which will create jobs and let people see that their future is in prosperity and not in black turbans and rocket propelled launchers. It is the lack of economic opportunities that has driven people to the hard liners who have stepped into a vacuum of ineffective government and in the process created a promise that the Taliban can guarantee security for the people better than the government.

Secondly, if the US really wants to help they must understand that missiles fired in Pakistan cannot help the eradication of the Taliban. If nothing else in the shrapnel and the dead bodies, mostly of innocent civilians, lies the very proof that the Taliban carry from village to village telling people that the 'Infidel Americans' and their 'Stooges in Islamabad' are their enemies. The hunt of foreign fighters and the issues now within Pakistan of a Pakistani Taliban are entirely different and while may be connected through some moral umbilical chord, are really a distinctly different set of circumstances. The Al Qadea want to get even with the US, the Pakistan Taliban want to take over Pakistani society through what I call 'social subversion'. While their aims may eventually be the same the battle grounds are distinctly different.

Finally, I do feel that the Pakistani ISI needs a complete overhaul, better still it needs to be disbanded and a new structure be created that is truly nationalist as opposed to religiously motivated. The damage that General Zia has done to the Pakistan Army remain deep and he must still be beaming his toothy smile that almost 15 years on and he still has his pet organization pulling the invisible strings of government.

For those who will claim that the issue of Pakistan is about Islam miss the point. Islam is not a religion about violence or coercion and its tolerance through the ages is well documented. The Taliban have no credence to claim any sanction under the name of Islam, because simply put what they advocate is not Islam, but some hybrid creed developed in the caves and villages of Afghanistan by a half blind mad man, Mullah Omar, whose understand of Islam could be put on a postage stamp and still leave room to spare.

This is indeed time for everyone in Pakistan to speak out against the tyranny of the Taliban and if we could have a million man march to restore the judges why cannot we have a 10 million man march in Pakistan to denounce the Taliban. Let them hear this message that their creed cannot be in a country which was founded on modern principles of Islam.

Sher View: The deed is done.

Indeed the deed is done. The General has got the endorsement from the Judges he appointed, announced the election date, and before December 1st 2007 will have shed the military uniform and seemingly all will be well. His good friend President George W Bush has said while the emergency is not something the US is elated about, 'General Musharraf has done a lot for democracy.' A truly puzzling statement. But then what Mr. G W Bush thinks of the General is not important, what the people of Pakistan will feel is more crucial.

Yes indeed the General was doing fine for democracy up to a year or so back, then the proverbial 'drunk with power' syndrome got to the man. Locking up political opponents, firing a Judge for alleged corruption without referring the case to the judiciary to try their own, and mishandling the siege of a mosque a few hundred meters from the Presidential residence in Islamabad all started a response from the General that has not made sense. In an interview to BBC the General tried to justify his actions and asked 'you think I just went mad in the last few months?'. The truth is Yes sir you have gone pretty mad. Here is why.

Building democracy by tearing up the constitution, locking up over 3,000 lawyers and human rights activists and rewriting the rules to protect your position is NOT Democracy. Interestingly Benazir Bhutto in championing 'democracy' cut her deals, then the general reneged and she did a hasty U turn and now might well contest the election as the sole main political leader if Nawaz Sharif is not allowed to contest the election. Under the new rules Mr. Sharif has to be personally present to file his nomination papers, so it is likely he will convince his Saudi hosts to let him return. Perhaps this was one of the reasons General Musharraf visited King Abdullah in Riyadh to either ask the Saudis not to let former PM back, but is more likely that he was trying to ask them to get Mr. Sharif agree to not demand the general's removal as President if he, in return, is allowed to return.

The Americans have again got this wrong, as if their main purpose is to fight terrorism and restore democracy then the way forward is rather simpler than backing just the General and Benazir Bhutto. They should engage in a contact with Mr. Nawaz Sharif and indeed the religious political parties in getting them to agree that Washington will support a full free election in return all political parties must agree to reduce violence within Pakistan. This is also in the interests of all the political parties, as terrorism within the country takes the political initiative away from the party leadership. Ms Bhutto and General Musharraf, now out of uniform, will not be able to deal with terrorism on their own.

If full and free elections are held and all parties are allowed to contest then this is what is likely, Sind province will go to Benazir's political party, Punjab to Nawaz Sharif, the North West Frontier Province to the MMA (a coalition of religious political parties) and Baluchistan to the Baluchi nationalist parties. Only the PML of Nawaz Sharif can deal with the groups who will win in NWFP and Baluchistan, and it is in these provinces that the problems of militancy and terrorism exist. This is why I have always argued that the country needs a government of national reconstruction where all parties are encouraged to form a collective government. Backing only one or two horses in this complex race will never be a fruitful bet and hence the dialogue has to be more broad based.

For the US hence the option has to be a neutral encouragement for free elections after they have had contacts with all political parties. It would seem while there will be legal and political resentments to the generals 'election' as the President, there is a chance that if free elections are allowed and all are allowed to participate then perhaps the chances are that this sordid deed will be buried in the need for national interest.

Sher View: The General Totters

Being in the boots of General Pervez Musharraf is not one of the things many Pakistanis would desire, particularly right at this moment as he implements the suspension of the Constitution and imposes total military rule -- against the warning of the Bush Administration -- in one of America's longtime allies in the volatile South Asia region.

Faced with a possible Supreme Court judgment that would have gone against his Presidency, a controversial deal with former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto, the bundling off of another former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif, and the rising pressure of militants in his own backyard, clearly General Musharraf was and is a cornered man.

For the past year or so the military strongman clearly lost his touch, if not the political momentum: his handling of the firing of the Supreme Court Chief Justice and storming of the Lal (Red) Mosque barely 200 meters from the Military Intelligence Headquarters were more than mere embarrassments; they showed that the General did have a conspicuous chink in his armor.

While he tried a political foxtrot in the last few months favoring Benazir Bhutto to return in exchange for an amnesty on possible convictions against her on corruption charges -- presumably with an understanding from Ms. Bhutto that the General would remain as the President -- it was becoming clear that the General was not politically savvy about what he was getting himself into. His handling of sending Nawaz Sharif back into political exile in Saudi Arabia -- the country that had guaranteed Mr. Sharif not returning to Pakistan for at least ten years -- clearly showed that the General was picking his favorites among which political opponents would be permitted to come back home from abroad..

What happens next?

The Bush Administration -- which gave Pakistan more than $10 billion, mostly in military aid, since General Musharraf seized power in a bloodless coup in 1999 -- is scarcely pleased with what the General has donem It is more likely that the Europeans will take economically effective steps against Pakistan’s regime. The Americans will have to balance things given that Musharraf will use the martial law as the necessary weapon he needs to go after the militants of Al Qaeda and Taliban. With press freedoms curtailed or restricted, and military force rather than para-military rangers fighting the militants, his bet will be for quick results if Mr. Musharraf wants some semblance of acceptability in the White House again..

While it is possible that there will be mass political rallies against him in Pakistan -- a land of 177 million Muslims of many persuasions -- it is highly unlikely that General Musharraf and his generals will be as tolerant of street demonstrations as they were during the uproar over the Supreme Court Chief Justice's firing. Benazir Bhutto will perhaps come out of this politically for the worse, finding her deal with the General scuttled. And even though she was acquiring some kudos for speaking out against terrorism after the attack on her convoy upon her return to Pakistan from her exile in Dubai,, she will be hard pressed to prove that democracy was really her sole motive for returning to Pakistan.

The martial law and the General’s sudden about-face actually will favor Nawaz Sharif, who in exile with the Saudis as their "guest," is going to gain the most from this turn of events. It will help him all the more since it seems that the United States had pressed both the General and Benazir Bhutto to come to some understanding; I am told reliably that some American officials urged Musharraf not to undertake any discussions with Nawaz Sharif.

In the street politics of Pakistan this is a huge dividend that Mr. Sharif can encash as and when he wants.

It is possible that General Musharraf acted to pre-empt any dissension within the army ranks. With the November 15th court judgment expected against General Musharraf's presidential election, it is possible his generals were getting uncomfortable about his personalization of the political challenges before the country.

It would well be that the martial law might have staved off any possible attempts by nationalist inspired Generals within the army. One of the most difficult aspects to fathom will be the reaction of the command line generals who have not always felt comfortable with performing martial law duties. Even though since the times of General Zia ul Haq -- one of Mr. Musharraf's predecessors as army chief and president-by-coup -- the army was highly politicized, it cannot be guaranteed that these generals will follow the edict of a President and Chief of Army Staff who seems to be battling more for his life than for his country.

For Pakistan and the region this is a precarious and fragile moment, and martial laws may not be the solution. While dealing with the militants may seem easier by comparison, there is no doubt that the political drama that is unfolding will not end so easily.

General Musharraf has merely written out the first act of a drama the Pakistani public is well versed in, but as with all such dramas the audience has no loyalties. Sadly enough, with Ms. Bhutto'’s political juggling and Mr. Sharif fuming in Saudi Arabia as a "guest," the chances are that General Musharraf will have to have a head-on clash with political forces within the country and most likely within the army.

Only the next few weeks will tell us if the General has truly tottered and fallen. Until then, this past weekend's troubling developments will remain a precarious tangle in Pakistan’s sad political history of military meddling, Islamist maneuverings, and the shredding of the social order.

America may well lose a key ally in the region in its war against global terrorism. It is difficult not to despair about Pakistan's prospects. It is even more difficult bot to despair over the incipient possibility that America's enormous economic, military and political investment in Pakistan may well have been for nought.