A Letter from D J Trump

 My dear ‘Lucifer’,

You may wonder why I am calling you Lucifer, it’s not that I have forgotten your name it’s just that I don’t want those ANTIFA hooligans to troll you when they learn you have been by confidante for over three decades. Your amazing guidance has brought me to be the greatest President the United States has ever had, a position that has added to my wealth and stature and those of my children. Imagine the value of my brand name after I leave the White House, that’s if I ever leave the house that I have come to love just as much as Mara Lago. 

As you know I do not read but I took your advice of the principal of divide and rule which you said is how a small island called Great Britain became great in colonising more than half the world. You were spot on to embrace the forgotten voice of the White Supremacists, they are at the core of my base and just like me do not read much and unlike me did not have the money to fix their school grades. Their attention span is four words and “Make America Great Again“  is enough for them to get into their Pick up trucks or onto their motorbikes and turn up where I want them. Knowing the art of the deal I know I can sell them back their own hard earned pickups by simply saying its to make America great again.

You were right about going after all the recent immigrants, the Latinos, the Muslims because my base doesn’t know that they all are the sons and daughters of immigrants, every single one of them. You were right to say they will not research their ancestry, many don’t know where the nearest library is, well neither do I but then that’s not the point I am the greatest POTUS ever, I mean ever! Thanks for reminding me to go soft of the Latinos this election as we need Florida more than ever, and sure I am considering my Supreme Court nominee to replace RBG (sorry of the initials I cannot spell her surname), to be a Latino woman. 

I am a bit disturbed about this book by this Bob fellow, I know you told me not to talk to him but come on Lucifer this Bob fellow is the dean of FAKE news and if I, the best negotiator ever to be President, could disarm him then the fake news crowd of Coumo, Don Lemon, Wolf (cannot spell his surname) etc would all come crumbling down. I think this Bob is a poor man and doesn’t own any stocks because I kept telling him about the stock market and he did not even respond. As you once said “no point talking about a rib eye steak to a guy who only eats hot dogs”. The problem is he has these tapes, not like the loser Nixon’s tapes, with my voice on them. Should I deny I ever spoke to him? I know my MAGA crowd will believe me. You told me to say it’s a boring book, which I did and the MAGA suckers cheered, you think I should read it? 

This China flu thing seems to cause some stink on me, but only time to time. Yes I knew it was deadly and may be I should have said in April that about 50,000 people will die instead of saying it will go away and it’s under control, I called you back then but your phone was disconnected, my office forgot to pay the bill. Can I tell the people that this is God’s wrath on the Americans who are not true MAGA and Trump supporters? I can make up some numbers to show only Trump haters are dying. After all I tell about ten lies a day and these idiots are so busy fact checking me they will never catch up.

Joking aside, Lucifer you are right that telling them that 200,000 dead is better than 500,000 dead! So you are right I have done a great job in fighting the China flu. I know this Dr Fauci fellow is believed more than me but you were wise to suggest to get a mountain of man of science to neutralise Fauci; so I got Dr Atlas, Kellyann Conway told me there are the Atlas Mountains somewhere in Africa or Asia. (Sending Don Jr there to see if we can build a Trump property on the Atlas Mountains). This Atlas fellow is so great he just parrots whatever I say but with a degree the geeks will believe him rather than me. That way we get the swing votes, right?

Thanks for sending me the additional oath you want all people who serve me to make. I agree these people like the rat Cohen, and the coward Mattis, should never emerge again. I have modified the oath that each person working for me shall make. Let me know what you think:

“I ........... swear by God this holy oath that I shall render unconditional obedience and loyalty forever, to the leader of the American Republic and the American people, Donald J Trump, the greatest President of USA and it’s supreme leader. This oath is binding on me for life and even if, God forbid, Donald J Trump is no more the US President. This holy oath is bound to me till my death”.

Just to let you know I spoke to my good friend Kim in North Korea and Comrade Putin and both confirmed their inner circle has a similar oath they have to swear. So if it’s good for them it’s good for America, don’t you agree?

Talking of Putin, you have to come up with something that can make this Russia connection disappear, just as I am making the China flu disappear. I will take on board your last advice to criticise Putin a few times and to do it in gentle terms. I agree with that strategy as it will shut up the fake news media but I will make sure I will call my good friend Putin before to warn him it’s just an election ploy. Given what my FBI guys are saying about Russian interference (yet again), I am sure Putin will understand my little polite needle jabs at him. 

On a closing note I have told my office to make sure your phone bill is always paid so I can reach you anytime I want. I know at times it’s 3 AM but then I am also the most hard working president the United States has ever had. Oh I almost forgot, please reach out to Ms G Maxwell, she is a very fine person and needs some advice on this Epstein thing. Hell, he is dead why should this poor woman suffer for his pleasures? As I said in public I wish her well.

Take care and check your post box, Don Jr should have sent you some presents. Hope you like the POTUS bedroom slippers.

Signed 

DJT

(This is a satirical piece and should be read only in that context)

 

America’s Choice

 

In less than two months Americans will make a choice, a choice that comes at perhaps the most defining moment in US political history. The effects of the changes to the political landscape from four years ago do not only linger on but create deep schisms in the US political psyche. These schisms do not traverse the  lines of political agenda or policies but are schisms of division that bear horrible consequences for the future direction of American society. The choice is one of measuring character, values, decency and honesty, all of which define the moral compass not only of the candidates but of Americans by and large. 

The character flaws of the incumbent President run deep and are well talked about, and as Election Day nears more tell all stories spew out into the public domain, from his closet former advisors to his family. As if the thousands of recorded lies of Donald Trump needed any more proof these new narratives while reaffirming his lack of decency, truth and moral values perhaps will not dent the 30 odd percent of his base  supporters. Trump has sold to them large doses of fear and hyperbole which he knows is not entirely true but it is what they have wanted to hear. 

Four years ago in electing Trump a marginalised blue white collar workers and a largely mid western white population signalled that they believed the USA was being flooded with immigrants and that their jobs were shipped aboard. Trump promised a wall which Mexico would pay for, he would engage China in a trade war, he would roll back medical care for all and the list goes on. Today his message of fear is that the protests over the police having killed unarmed black men and women are violent and this threatens white suburbia. The fact that 93% of the protests have been peaceful is not relevant to his base, to them Trump as president has said that these protests are led by thugs and looters is enough proof.

On the flip side the Democratic Party has its own unique set of challenges. After the unifying and effective leadership of Barrack Obama the party  four years ago became the vestige if the Clintons. With Bernie Sanders presenting a too radical alternative to the party Hilary Clinton was propelled to take on Trump. Bad political strategy and an over whelming belief in the polls caused crucial swing states to go to the Trump camp. It just became obvious that while in polls people preferred Clinton the party could not get that support to come to the polls on Election Day. The challenge in this election is if the Biden-Harris ticket can muster the Democratic Party vote bank to the pols and more importantly swing the marginalised voters back to their fold.

While President Trumps base has largely remained intact and it has ignored his failures and character flaws it assures him between 30 to 38% of the electorates support. The Biden camp would seem to have an edge on the popular vote but for them the crucial issue will be if they have enough of a lead in the swing states, the very states that Trump edged into his side in 2016. Back in that election it is estimated that Trumps margin was so thin in these swing states that the total number of voters who helped him clinch the election could have fitted into on football pitch.

Over the next fifty odd days Trumps strategy will be to kindle the fires of fear, extolling his divisive pitch that a Biden victory will mean an end to white suburbia. His attacks on Biden will echo more along the lines that only Trump is the patriot and good for America, a rally call that appeals to his base. He will deflect critics of his handling of the COVID-19 pandemic by continuing to lie that under his watch America handled the crisis better than any country. This is a claim that goes against the facts and with 190,000 Americans having perished to the virus Trump will ignore this issue.

Biden must not make the mistakes that Hilary Clinton made by ignoring the swing states during the campaign trail. He must also continue to hit Trump on his weakest points; the pandemic handling by Trump. There is a plethora of statements in Trumps own words that highlight his bungling of the crisis and then all the misstatements and outright lies that came from the President. Some have suggested that President Trump exhibited “homicidal negligence” in the manner he handled the COVID-19 crisis. 

Nothing irks Trump more than the Russian issue and his soft stance towards Putin. While it was established through the Mueller investigation that out of the ordinary links existed between key Trump confidants and the Russians, with some of them going to jail, Trump anchors his defence on the fact that direct collision between his campaign and the Russians was not established to the extent of no shadow of doubt. Irrespective of that investigation to any omniscient observer it is clear that Trump holds back his criticism of Putin, most recently over allegations that the Russians offered bounties in Afghanistan to those who killed US and NATO troops. This is Trumps Achilles heel and the Biden camp should continue to hammer away at it.

This election for America poses the choice of decency over crudeness, unity over divisiveness, truth over lies, multiracial empathy over racism and most of all good governance over chaos in the White House. The Biden-Harris ticket is clearly the choice over the Trump-Pence camp who after four years have failed in every respect by dividing America, ignoring the threats of the pandemic leaving 190,000 dead and creation of a swamp of nepotism and sycophancy in the government like never before. 

The prospect of a Trump victory cannot be ruled out, which might well be because of Biden’s electoral strategy failures, a Trump loss could well be a major challenge for Americans. He will not concede a loss easily, mail 8n ballots will become and issue and perhaps the courts will have to intervene. More dangerously the white supremacist supporters of Trump will perhaps take to the streets and civil disobedience backed by guns cannot be ruled out. 

If Trump does win the best thing for the US would be that the Republicans lose control on the Senate and with the House controlled by the Democrats there could be some checks and balances restored to a rouge President. This is a highly likely scenario and something that should be watched. However, a victorious Trump will edge to the dictatorial style he loves and we may see him more unhinged. That can only be avoided if people who find it repulsive the way Trump has thickened the swamp he promised to clear they should come out and vote in large numbers. This is America’s most defining election become a part of it.

Trump Unbundled

 People deserve the leaders they choose. This is all the more valid for democracies where the assumption is that the electorate is educated and politically astute. Four years ago as Donald Trump created a divisive agenda and embellished a campaign with lies and racist slant one felt the United States of America was getting what it deserved. Even though one knew Trump had hijacked the Republican Party there was an inner voice that hoped he could step in as the 45th President and change by embracing the statesmen like qualities that the Oval Office thrusts upon its incumbents.

Four years later and the circus of the US election is unfolding again. It is obvious that there is a hard core of Trump supporters who continue to embrace President Trump believing in the hyperbole he has been spinning. It is unlikely that die hard core of his base will embrace the truth of Trumps failures as a man and as a President even when faced with his lack of action on the COVID 19 pandemic that has left close to 180,00 Americans dead. The fact he has embraced white supremacists, ridiculed minorities and shunned responsibility for the failures of his office do not matter to them. 

In 2016 the media played into Trumps strategy by giving him more air time each time he made unspeakable remarks and in a sense gave a platform for his views rather than ignoring him. Now the challenge is to unbundle this President even though Trump has a state machinery to defend the agenda and his position. However, one must admit that Trump’s success in 2016 was also on account of the failures of the Hilary Clinton campaign who ignored the states they were traditionally strong in and the Democrats just could not mobilise the voter base who could have titled the balance in their favour.

The challenge will be how to take an electorate who are increasingly apathetic towards the 2020 election to go out an vote? The choice is Trumps dramatic but untrue characterisations versus the Biden camps search of a meaningful message. Trumps assurance is his base, some of whom may have wavered but the question remains if he has marshalled in enough to replace those he lost. Yet it is clear his base also envisions cannot get him elected. In 2016 there was a large blue collar work force who were disgruntled with Hilary Clinton strongly enough to swing to the Trump camp. Biden and his team have to focus on these key segments in addition to the large number of people who did not vote in 2016.

To unbundle Trump is more a matter of focus on his content of his failures rather than a generic denunciation of the man. As we saw in 2016 some of the worst gaffes and revelations (the Hollywood tape, Stormy Daniels etc) did not faze him or his base. Unlike the previous election this time his character flaws can be pitched against his policy failures and this should be the focus of any challenge to Donald Trump.

His Presidency has left a litany of lies, and behavioural flaws most if not all of which have effected policy.  The unbundling of Trump is therefore a unique journey into the mind of a man who can only evoke two emotions; you can either love him or hate him, but ignoring him is no more possible.

Trumpism is to embrace the lies.

There is a plethora lies that can be attributed to Donald Trump, to he point he is labelled as a serial liar. Through this summer he has averaged at over 250 lies a month! What is amazing is that Trump continues to utter his lies over and over based on the dictum that if you utter a lie often enough people will believe it to be the truth. This certainly was the case with his accusation that President Obama was not born in the United States, which some of his followers still believe to be the truth. 

When faced with the gravest threats to US society in the shape of the COVID-19 pandemic Trump continued to lie about the gravity of the crisis and the measures he was taking. Sadly as US citizens died each day at an alarming rate President Trump claimed US was a leading example of fighting the pandemic, so much so that claiming the effects of the virus in the US were minor. At one point he was touting untested remedies for the COVID-19 and consistently denying there was a crisis. It was a clear case of the liar believing his version of reality and anyone who did not buy into that reality was enemy.

Politicians, including Presidents, are prone to stretch the truth, but Donald Trump does not bend the truth he simply creates his own version of the truth through a web of lies. One wonders when his wife, Melania, at the RNC meeting stated that people expect the President to tell the truth was it a tongue in cheek reference to her own husband.

Disavowing his former allies.

In Trumps White House it’s been normal to a cavalcade of officials be appointed and then to exit, some within a few weeks. The exits were either because they fell out with Trump and his inner circle or resigned in the face of criminal investigations. Upon their appointment Donald Trump has espoused lavish praise on the appointees calling them ‘very good’ people and upon their exit calling them losers. In cases where his former associates have been criminally charged Trump has been quick to state that he only knew them fleetingly and distanced himself from them. The most glaring fallout was with Steve Bannon, former chief strategist for Trumps election bit and then and advisor. During the early years of Trumps Presidency Bannon was a permanent fixture at the Oval Office and now discarded and facing a criminal charge Trump can only say that Bannon worked for his administration but he did not know him that well.

It would seem that Trump has no sense of loyalty to the people who have  served his cause. They are as good as their total subservience and submission to Trumps whims is the only barometer of acceptance by the President. Loyalty to Mr. Trump is a one way street and explains why sycophancy is the order of the day and a necessary qualification to work with Mr. Trump. This implies that the President will not necessarily get the best advice since there is a propensity on his part to surround himself with yes men. 

Ego before nation.

 Most people who have known Donald Trump attest to his over grown ego. He does not want to be ignored and resents attention to anyone but himself. This ego also shapes the self image that Trump carries to the extent that he considers himself smarter than anyone else, brighter than the best scientists, and considers his art of the deal implies he can negotiate with anyone, including dictators in North Korea or the NATO leaders. Having an over sized ego is one thing but in Trumps case he holds a vindictive nature against people who may be considered better than him. This explains his benign hatred for President Obama and everything the previous administration achieved. 

The result of this egoistic trait has meant that valuable time and resources have been wasted on proving he can deal with North Korea, when the lack of results shows how his ego cannot be out before the national interest. Trumps position on climate change, Immigration, healthcare and Russia show how one mans ego has been the focal point of a policy that he cannot rationalise. 

Trumps Achilles heel.

In 2016 Trump came under pressure to release his tax returns to which he declared if he won the election he would do so. Four years later not only have the tax filings not been released he and his lawyers have Ben fighting the courts which have ordered their release. What is it that Trump does not want to be disclosed?

Here is a theory, and mind you only a theory. Let’s go back to 2014 and Trump is flirting with the idea of entering the Presidential race. It was no secret amongst top banks that Trump was a risky client and since his earlier bankruptcies top western banks avoided lending to the Trump group. The exception was Duetsche Bank who at one point had an exposure of $2 billion to Trump companies. In addition there were a number of syndicated loans on projects where Trump was a significant minority shareholder in a project.  For instance the developer of 1290 Avenue of America, in which Trump owns 30% equity borrowed from a consortium of banks almost $1billion of which $ 211 m was provided by Bank of China. The loan was signed in November 2012. Around the time of the election in 2016 Bank of China denied it had leant the money however in 2017 its name appeared on listed of banks holding a mortgage on the said development. If it was an arms length transaction why would the bank deny it ever loaned the money? 

Now here is the theory and at the outset one must state that it is entirely conjecture. Prior to the election banks lending to Trump got nervous that a risky client would be impossible to handle if he became President. Some of these banks called in their loans. It is possible that some of these loans were bought by Russian banks and this may explain why Trump has been soft of Mr Putin and Russia. This would explain why the battle for the tax filings is so important as it would reveal the trail of the financial dealings. 

Either way whether true or not it does make an interesting plot for a financial thriller.

As the final run for the election of the next president heats up Americans have to make a moral choice not an emotional choice. One can excuse any number of Trumps failures and indiscretions but forgiving him for his failure to handle the COVID-19 pandemic is something one cannot do.  Jimmy Carter lost the election for the handling of US hostage crisis in Tehran, but today with thousands of Americans having died of the COVID-19 virus Trump not only survives but thrives on laying blame on others or flatly denying that he failed. If Trump is to be judged solely on his handling of the pandemic then he will lose the election. This is where the soul of America will be tested; is a second term for Trump worth more than 179,000 dead Americans?

Naya Pakistan in an age of tolerance!

The Naya Pakistan that Imran Khan has promised the people has been slow in unfolding itself. It has its stops and starts, distractions and stumbles but in little bits and pieces, some more significant than we realize, the vision of  Imran’s Pakistan has given us a few glimpses and some of them are disturbing to say the least. There is a consensus amongst most historians that General Zia Ul Haq did a great disservice to the modernization of Pakistan with his embrace of the ultra orthodox platform he not only shifted the pendulum of Pakistani society he provided a legitimacy to every one to claim they were the champions of Islam and their interpretation of how society was ordained to be correct. This new Zia doctrine permeated into institutions of the state to the extent that even the armed forces were affected. It reached a point where Zia’s views of military promotions were based not on the merit of the soldiers but on whether he considered you a devout Muslim.

 

Decades later today we are faced with a specter of change, which most of us who support Imran hoped, would be to move Pakistan forward as a tolerant modern state. However, we are faced with the prospect of a massive effort to rewrite our history, school books being examined to purge anything not consistent with a particular view of history, Turkish drama serials being promoted as if they speak of our, a Pakistan, history and then a constant appeasement of a ultra religious segment that refuses to embrace or accept the founder of Pakistan’s vision of a tolerant Pakistan. In fairness Qaid e Azam hosted mixed signals at times indicating that shariah law would be the law of the land and at others promoting a liberal secular Islam. 

There is little denying through recent history successive ruling administrations in Pakistan have been rudderless is defining a social and economic agenda where education and social reforms could shape a modern Pakistan. Since Zulfikar Ali Bhuttos government of the 1970’s failed in its socialist promise of ‘roti,kappra, makkan’ (food, clothing and housing) the disconnect between the political elite and their promises has been evident. Sadly for Pakistan Bhuttos government and then later his daughter, Benazir Bhuttos, first government, were the only moments where the ruling party held enough of a political majority to bring about meaningful change and both failed miserably.

These failures played into the hands of the mullah orthodoxy which was made all the more important during General Zia’s regime. Geopolitical pressures arising from the war in Afghanistan against the Soviet invasion meant that Zia’s government and the army became conduits to American support and funding of radical right wing militant groups to fight the Soviets. It was these very groups or their protege splinter groups that were to then turn on Pakistan and wreck havoc with terrorist attacks. 

Since the 1970’s a massive export of labourers and skilled professionals to the Gulf countries was encouraged with the view to benefit from home remittances from this work force. These very workers over the past five decades imported into Pakistan a mindset of societal change which has prompted an Arabization of Pakistani society. The dupatta was replaced by the abaya, the Urdu farewell of ‘Khuda Hafiz’ was replaced by ‘Allah Hafiz’, and many more social norms imported that had for centuries been alien to Pakistani society. Sadly these social imports did not emulate the elements of tolerance as seen in UAE and Bahrain where people of other faiths are given remarkable freedoms. 

Imran Khan has at times argued that the Muslims in Pakistan have an identity crisis. No they have never had an identity crisis they are being edged into a new identity which is divorced from the history of the land and it’s people. The history of the land encompasses a vast and diverse swath from the Indus Valley Civilization to the Vedic period, the invasion by the Greeks, the Mauyra empire, to the Ghazni and Ghauri period, the Afghan Lodi empire, the Mughal empire and finally the British empire till independence in 1947. This is the continuous history of Pakistan and projecting that Turkish or Arab history is our history plays into a narrative that is not true.

Imran Khan may be partially right about Pakistanis having an identity crisis. Many of our brethren take pains to point out that their family tress is embedded in the land of the Arabs. This is far from the truth as history tells us successive invasions from the north created a melting pot in India yet the original settlers of the land embraced the customs of successive invaders and at times the religion too. Many of our customs still carry the traces of this historical heritage, we simply cannot just redefine ourselves in to a new mould.

Tinkering with the education system will have profound consequences on Pakistani society and it’s place on the world stage. Most certainly Islamic studies should be a part of the syllabus but not at the expense of science and history. Yes there is an elite  educational system, a product of which was Imran also, which in 1950’s was divorced for the people, but in the past five decades it has tried to remain elitist but also imbibed a broader more egalitarian format. Countries have have become competitive on the world stage, Korea, Japan, India and many others have modernised their educational system. We in Pakistan can do the same so long as we understand that a modern educational system does not mean you are westernising society.

A Naya Pakistan should be proud of it’s history not one that tries to rewrite it. Most of all it has to be a tolerant Pakistan where minorities are not only protected but encouraged to be equal partners in the progress of the country. When it announced that a Hindu temple was to be built in the capital I felt this was a positive development only to learn a few weeks later the back stepping started. This I suspect is from the pressure of the ultra conservative segment of society. Why cannot we learn from other countries that have been tolerant to other faiths. If Muslims in USA or UK can build a mosque then why not a temple for Hindus in Pakistan?

The narrative of the PTI government has to change. It has to speak of a modern Pakistan, a tolerant Pakistan and a progressive Pakistan. Yes Islam is our state religion but we do not need it to be forced onto every aspect of our lives. Strangely enough amongst the Islamic groups there is little consensus of which sect is the right way and if Islam in Pakistan is under threat it is from the sectarian schisms of the mullahs themselves. I have lived 40 years in a Muslim country were people are deeply religious and not once have I been asked if I am a Shia or a Sunni. As I have undergone my own personal journey to Islam in the past half decade I have been helped by many here towards a tolerant Islam and it perhaps explains why the country has progressed. 

There is a lot to learn about tolerance and we must acknowledge that we as Pakistani Muslims have forgotten what it means. To see a Hindu journalist once in a mosque meditating while his host, a sheikh prayed at Maghreb time to me was the epitome of tolerance and acceptance. I know in Pakistani the mullahs would say that the mosque is now unclean etc etc. Bricks and cement do not become unclean by well meaning acts of faith, if anything it creates an acceptance that countries like Pakistan could well learn from.

 

 

COVID 19 and USA

One of the dictums of life is that you have to acknowledge a problem before you can muster the resources and means to fix the problem. USA's response to the COVID 19 pandemic is a case study of the denial by it its leadership to admit to the problem. President Trump, stubbornly and stupidly, has denied to acknowledge the magnitude of the pandemic and instead of statesman like leadership he has opted to politicize the pandemic to the point of ridiculousness. 

The talk from Trump is that the "US is leading the world in fighting the pandemic"; a bizarre statement considering that daily cases are rising, the death toll is the highest, albeit a bit slower, and most experts, including his appointees, confirm there has been no flattening of the curve of infections. The US has tested about 11.7% of its population of 220 million people, which is still lower than UAE (35.6%), Denmark(19.9%), UK (15.8%) and many more countries, even though above 11% is respectable provided other measures are in place.

What we have learned so far in the fight against COVID 19  is that social distancing, preventive measures like masks and sanitization are crucial building blocks in the preventing the spread of the virus. However testing is a pillar to the battle as it then allows one to identify the infected people, isolate them, determine their recent contacts and isolate them and thus restricted the rampant spread of the virus. We have also learned, in some cases the hard way that listening to the scientists is a vital ingredient to the battle against the virus. Political and social compulsions being put to the forefront of any plan to fight the pandemic is a recipe for disaster.

As governments the world over tackle the difficult question of when to ease the lockdowns and to what extent the concern always remains whether such easing will lead to a second wave of infections. While it is recognized that a prolonged lockdown can and will have serious economic and social implications the decision has to be made within the broad framework of how well has a country’s COVID 19 strategy worked. Lockdowns in themselves achieve little if other broader measures of social protection; masks and social distancing, and contact tracing are not implemented. In addition the purpose of contact tracing is precisely to indemnity people at risk and isolate them before they spread the virus any further.

Countries with broad and effective lockdowns backed by a cohesive COVID 19 strategy have shown success in this battle. In addition it has allowed them to move from wide lockdowns to smart lockdowns and side by side be effective in isolating people at risk through contact tracing. United States of America stands out as a country that has had the least effective strategy because political and social factors have over ridden what scientific sense has suggested. While other countries in large measure have seen the peak of the first wave of infections pass the US continues to see a surge in infections. The glaring lack of measures to contain social contact and implement measures that have worked in other countries continues to indicate that the worst is yet to come.

If the current rate of infections and the lack of a plan to combat COVID 19 remains in the US then it is highly likely that the first wave of infections will hit close to 8-10 million people with deaths exceeding 250,000 to 300,000. Indeed there is evidence that the virus has mutated and its effects may be less deadly but by the same measure this mutation has made the virus spread much faster.

President Trumps handling of the COVID 19 is an abysmal failure of leadership. While previous failures of the Trump Presidency were political and policy oriented, this one costs lives and at the current rate two and half times the number of Americans killed in the Vietnam war! Not having a policy or not supporting what the experts are saying is one thing, but here is a President who deliberately undermines the efforts of others and even has suggested that the virus will ‘simply go away’ one day.

The question remains if Americans will take President Trump to task for his failure to protect Americans in this pandemic? That will be perhaps decided at the elections in November.

                       

Kashmir and the Indo-China border dispute

As Indian and Chinese troops clashed along their disputed borders a jingoism emerged from New Delhi, at times reminding their audience that this is not 1962, when the Chinese army humiliated the Indian army. The fact remains that India has, under Modi's BJP government, stirred up border tensions not only with Pakistan, but Nepal and now China. The interesting element to the current escalation of border tensions with China is that Modi's government has managed to distract attention for the ongoing plight of the Kashmiri people in Indian Kashmir. 

 

Sino Indian border tensions are not new, and while the odd skirmish has taken place since the 1962 Indian humiliation, these have been more incidents rather than major military confrontations. What is different about the current tension is that ironically India’s abrogation of the special status of Indian Kashmir also changed the status of the Ladakh area that borders China. Beijing sees the change of status, from a geopolitical perspective, as India unilaterally asserting a resolution to their border issues with China. So long as the area was disputed between Indian, Pakistan and China, in varying claims over territories, China was willing to let the disputed status quo remain. However, India abrogating the special status of Kashmir and the adjoining areas presents a fait accompli that the Chinese may not be willing to accept.

 

Whether this border clash, that left a few dozen dead on each side, will broil over into a wider military confrontation is yet to be seen. Tensions are high and India must know its response scenario is limited to what they can do to the Chinese. Militarily the Chinese certainly have a upper edge and it is not certain if Indian appeals to Washington to pressure China to ease the tensions will work given that the Trump Administration does not have the same influence over Beijing as previous US administrations have had.

 

Prime Minister Modi has to walk the precipice with care. His recent statement that no Chinese troops entered India territory suggested that it might have been the Indian military that ventured unto the Chinese side thereby giving Beijing the moral high ground. In addition Modi has to understand that hard talking China does not work, he tried it with Pakistan and while to some extent the world may have given him an audience, in the case of China the influence and power of the Chinese far outweighs that of New Delhi.

 

However, in a more sinister manner, the whole issue of the border skirmish with China has taken attention away from the situation in Kashmir. The lockdown and the denial of movement and freedom of speech and assembly have now been in place for almost a year in Kashmir. Political leaders, while recently released have been muzzled and New Delhi is keen to move its settlement plans of changing the demographics of Indian Kashmir; much like Israel has done in the Palestinian lands. The world has been pretty much silent over all this and Modi has, to a major extent, got away with it.

 

For Indian Muslim Kashmiris the intent of the Indian government has been solely to redraw the historical realities of Kashmir and its people. In BJP eyes opening up to settlement of Kashmir by Indians, and mostly Hindus changes the demographics far enough to change the complexion of the Kashmir issue away from a Muslim populous seeking self determination to try and achieve Kashmiri integration into the Indian body politic based on a more balanced Hindu-Muslim demographic.

 

Alternatively PM Modi’s government can use the confrontation with China as a matter of national security and justify a larger presence of Indian troops in Kashmir and within that scenario enforce the demographic changes within Kashmir. If in the process India loses some territory to China as a result of a military conflict it will still be seen a small price to pay in comparison to enforcing New Delhi’s will in Kashmir.

 

While this is a gamble as in military conflicts outcomes are not always certain and China may just feel a wider occupation of the disputed area and its hinterlands is the best way to settle the score, Modi’s government cannot entirely de-escalate things on their own. China has been vocal is demanding a restoration of the special status of Kashmir (including Ladakh) and its clear that it sees root cause of the current tension as coming from New Delhi. Within India the hawks feel that a conflict with China may well not be as one sided as the Chinese would wish and point to the logistical challenge for China to mobilize at the Indian border.

 

All said and done the dispute is far from settled and it is likely that more skirmishes will occur. Its only a matter of time when one skirmish becomes more than just an incident. Until then one can only hope that better sense prevails in India and they step back from this new found nationalist jingoism and seek a quick and meaningful dialogue with China.

 

 

 

 

America Burning: The discomfort of racism!

There is always a distant distillation when sitting on a different continent and watching the painful burning of America. It creates a compelling reason to understand the pain that has caused this rioting and to better understand this label ‘racism’ which is at the root of the current upheaval.  The persuasive narrative is that this is a Black – White issue, it’s a racist event laden with the provocations and reactions that such emotionally charged and painful occasions bring. Yet sitting abroad one can flick the TV to some period drama series and not have to even hear the sirens or the gunshots on an American street. But then such escapes are not sustainable as the burning of America comes back to haunt you.

If you are white and do not subscribe to the white supremacist hatred for Black people, then you have two choices; sit on the sidelines and add the occasional voice to social media, or become active in supporting the moral right of the Black people. For someone like me, being brown, is a step closer to understand the pain of the Black man, but still being closer is not enough. One has to dig deeper into this malaise that plagues American society where the color of the skin creates hatred that demeans the life of the person with that color. In a sense the knee on George Floyds neck was symbolic of the knee that has been on the neck of Black people in America for decades. While slavery was abolished in 1865 it was only with the Civil Rights Act of 1964 that discrimination based on color sex or religion was officially banned. Yet, as numerous studies show, till 1980’s segregation along race was common in US schools and colleges.

In recent times, and to the present day, a policy of ‘redlining’ creates the de facto denial of equal opportunities to Black and other minorities in the USA. The practice makes mortgages, education and jobs more difficult for Black people to secure by simply raising the qualification criteria or the cost of the education and mortgages much higher. As systemic as those redlining measures are the current upheaval concerns the unlawful killing of a Black man by police officers and is the watershed of many such incidents in the past.

The issues concerning Black people and their treatment run deep into the core of American society, almost to the concealed psyche of the white people who have treated them badly. Yes it is true not all white people are there to kill Black people, and indeed the vast majority of white (and brown) Americans are appalled by the recent events.  Yes this also becomes that moment when we quote Malcolm X and Martin Luther King and seek to understand how this anger can lead to rioting and looting. How an American President can call the protesters ‘thugs’ and how we can simply ignore the weight of history that has caused this. One is often asked if one supports the protests, and after affirming one does, the next question is ‘do you support the looting and burning of shops?’

There is a logical unequivocal answer that one cannot support the looting? However, supporting and understanding it are two different things. I can understand why it happened without agreeing to the fact it happened. At the outset racism, especially against Black people, is spun together in a historical context and since the abolition of slavery in the US back in 1865 with the 13^th Amendment, slavery has continued without chains through policies of denials, inequalities, and a system of justice that seems to modify itself with the color of the skin.

This is not only about the killing of George Floyd. It carries with it the symbolisms of the anger over the many other killings that were treated with the same disdain and sense of apathy that we see today. Those 9 minutes of a White police officer’s knee on the neck of Mr. Floyd were not just the nine minutes that prove that in the United States Black lives do not matter, but epitomises that Black lives do not matter in general. Mr. Floyd it must be said, based on the words of this closer relatives and friends, would not be happy to see the looting and burning, but the weight of the anger is not only of Mr. Floyd but the many more Black Americans who have been killed; Rodney King 1992, Tyrone Lewis 1996, Timothy Thomas 2001, Oscar Grant 2009, Michael Brown 2014, Freddie Grey 2015, and the list goes on.

What is more alarming is that the political leadership is absent in action and empathy to defuse the situation. The incumbent President has seen the recent riots much like the COVID 19 pandemic, from his personal political perspective. When the news is not fake to him it is then something to do with the enemies of American society. There has not been an iota of understanding shown by the President to simply comprehend why people are angry. Sadly the broader US political coterie, from both sides of the political divide, have also been chillingly subdued in speaking to the angry people directly.

Not all the protests have been violent and yes there has been looting in many instances but the dynamics of this run deep into the soul of America. While a looter may see a Wal-Mart store as symbolizing white capitalist exploitation (which is may well not be) he does see it in these hard times as a means to redress the economics of ‘injustice’. None of this makes it right, in fact each looter defaces the solemnity of the protest and the reason for the protest and gives the likes of Mr. Trump an excuse to call all the protestors thugs’.

One has to wonder where will America go from here? In a political and social landscape that has been divided by race already, thanks to President Trump, is there enough sentiment of empathy out there to help the healing? Will this be like the many other protests that eventually run out of steam and every body goes back to their cocoons of hatred, self pity, and anger? Will America as a nation in one voice say ENOUGH and then bring about the change that will truly make a difference, that will truly work to reform their society where any killing of anyone, black, white, yellow, brown or Technicolor, will be seen as an erosion of the very principles for which decent American’s have, through the centuries, fought for and died for!

This is that defining moment, buried under the knee of a white police officer what killed a Black man. From this rage will a collective nation rise what will kill racism once and for all? This is what every American has to ask himself tonight.