Scorecard for USA on COVID-19

 Statistics in themselves do not lie, our interpretations of the numbers may vary and create a bias but the raw data is what it is; facts. As of September 25th a tally of data from 213 countries reveals the following comparisons for the United States:

• With 207,000 deaths USA ranks highest in deaths and 21% of all deaths world wide.
• 626 deaths per million ranks 10th highest in the world. ( San Marino is first and so in Andorra is the top ten, excluding them for their small populations USA ranks 8th).
• The world average of deaths per 1 million is 128 per million.
• In testing coverage USA ranks 20th with 30% of the population tested. 
• Total cases USA ranks the highest 7.2 million cases representing 22% of all cases in the world.
• With 4.4 million recovered USA ranks second in the world. 
• In active cases USA ranks the highest with 2.54 million. 
• With 14,156 currently critically infected by the virus USA ranks the highest, implying these people will sadly be added to the death list. 
• Canada, USA’s neighbour has had 245 death per million and total deaths there are 9,249.

President Trump has often said that his administration has done a great job and are leading the world in fighting Covid-19. The statistical evidence clearly establishes that the US is far from leading the fight against the virus largely because of the lack of policy and cogent action against the pandemic. President Trump has ridiculed the wearing of masks, encourage political rallies with no social distancing. In April he said they had predicted total deaths in USA would be 60,000! Two weeks later that number was exceeded. 

The concoction of misleading information, even suggesting unproven cures and all the time ignoring scientific advice when in private he knew this was the worlds deadliest pandemic. In effect his lack of policy and actions contrary to his duty to protect the American people can only lead one to call this the Trump Virus. Even today experts point to shortages in sanitizers, PPE equipment and other support equipment putting the lives of patients and the caregivers at risk. 

There is evidence that the virus may well be mutating and while infecting more people it’s fatality rate seems to be less in the recent weeks. However this does not mean that the virus will go away as President Trump has been often heard to say. The danger of the virus remains that it continues to spread through asymptomatic carriers therefor suggesting that a strategy of prevention ( masks and social distancing), mass testing, contact tracing and isolation are the key pillars upon which any plan to contain the virus rest.  

On all these criterion President Trump has failed, so much so he extolled that testing should be slowed down, and recently asked CDC to only test people with symptoms of the virus thus ignoring the simple fact that this virus spreads primarily through asymptomatic carriers! What is even more sad is that had measured been taken in a timely and effective manner the death toll in the United States would have perhaps been one third of deaths would occurred from the present level. Instead President Trump says had he not done what he did the death toll would have been in the millions, whitewashing that all he did actually created the impact of the Trump Virus to be worse than it could have. 

Countries with less resources, weaker health care facilities and certainly less money have done a remarkable job. This was because there was leadership on the issue and the leadership of these countries listened to the scientists and took the bitter pill of lockdowns and their economic impact. With out a doubt it is obvious that USA’s COVID-19 score card would have been much better had it been for better leadership. There can be no doubt that Donald Trumps lack of leadership and his push back against sensible measures to tackle the Covid-19 virus was and is tantamount to homicidal negligence.

COVID 19 and USA

One of the dictums of life is that you have to acknowledge a problem before you can muster the resources and means to fix the problem. USA's response to the COVID 19 pandemic is a case study of the denial by it its leadership to admit to the problem. President Trump, stubbornly and stupidly, has denied to acknowledge the magnitude of the pandemic and instead of statesman like leadership he has opted to politicize the pandemic to the point of ridiculousness. 

The talk from Trump is that the "US is leading the world in fighting the pandemic"; a bizarre statement considering that daily cases are rising, the death toll is the highest, albeit a bit slower, and most experts, including his appointees, confirm there has been no flattening of the curve of infections. The US has tested about 11.7% of its population of 220 million people, which is still lower than UAE (35.6%), Denmark(19.9%), UK (15.8%) and many more countries, even though above 11% is respectable provided other measures are in place.

What we have learned so far in the fight against COVID 19  is that social distancing, preventive measures like masks and sanitization are crucial building blocks in the preventing the spread of the virus. However testing is a pillar to the battle as it then allows one to identify the infected people, isolate them, determine their recent contacts and isolate them and thus restricted the rampant spread of the virus. We have also learned, in some cases the hard way that listening to the scientists is a vital ingredient to the battle against the virus. Political and social compulsions being put to the forefront of any plan to fight the pandemic is a recipe for disaster.

As governments the world over tackle the difficult question of when to ease the lockdowns and to what extent the concern always remains whether such easing will lead to a second wave of infections. While it is recognized that a prolonged lockdown can and will have serious economic and social implications the decision has to be made within the broad framework of how well has a country’s COVID 19 strategy worked. Lockdowns in themselves achieve little if other broader measures of social protection; masks and social distancing, and contact tracing are not implemented. In addition the purpose of contact tracing is precisely to indemnity people at risk and isolate them before they spread the virus any further.

Countries with broad and effective lockdowns backed by a cohesive COVID 19 strategy have shown success in this battle. In addition it has allowed them to move from wide lockdowns to smart lockdowns and side by side be effective in isolating people at risk through contact tracing. United States of America stands out as a country that has had the least effective strategy because political and social factors have over ridden what scientific sense has suggested. While other countries in large measure have seen the peak of the first wave of infections pass the US continues to see a surge in infections. The glaring lack of measures to contain social contact and implement measures that have worked in other countries continues to indicate that the worst is yet to come.

If the current rate of infections and the lack of a plan to combat COVID 19 remains in the US then it is highly likely that the first wave of infections will hit close to 8-10 million people with deaths exceeding 250,000 to 300,000. Indeed there is evidence that the virus has mutated and its effects may be less deadly but by the same measure this mutation has made the virus spread much faster.

President Trumps handling of the COVID 19 is an abysmal failure of leadership. While previous failures of the Trump Presidency were political and policy oriented, this one costs lives and at the current rate two and half times the number of Americans killed in the Vietnam war! Not having a policy or not supporting what the experts are saying is one thing, but here is a President who deliberately undermines the efforts of others and even has suggested that the virus will ‘simply go away’ one day.

The question remains if Americans will take President Trump to task for his failure to protect Americans in this pandemic? That will be perhaps decided at the elections in November.

                       

A letter to President Trump

When one bends the truth, fabricates lies, and draw an image of oneself far removed from reality it is going to have consequences on the people around you and yourself. Insofar as the disconnect from reality concerns one's own persona it can be laughable and in the end people will not just not take your word seriously. However, when you are the President of the United States, the laughable becomes lamentable, the spin of reality becomes a unique window into the mind of the most powerful leader on the planet. Add to this the worst pandemic in recent times, a pandemic which has claimed over 80,000 US lives, and the worse is still to come, then the leadership expected from the White House has to be top drawer.

One watched in horror how a press conference where a reporter posed a serious question on the pandemic resulted in a Trumpian tantrum resulting in a walk out by President Trump is just symptomatic of the problems that face the American people. A leader caught up in the web spun by his own ego that the gravity of 1.4 million people, of today, infected by the virus and more people having died than in the Vietnam war, suggested a total failure of leadership.

Mr Trump started his COVID 19 position from denial; it was something that was never going to hit the United States, and even if a few cases came over he was sure he had the defenses in place. The nonchalant leadership went so far as to continue to hold political rallies in February and even March when cases in the US were beginning to crop up in isolated pockets. Then Trump took on the role of some scientist who had just stepped out of a research lab  offering different medications as possible remedies to the virus. At one stage going so far as to, seriously, suggest if detergent was to be drunk would it not kill the virus. Not much later he claimed it was a light hearted comment, forgetting the suggestion itself was caught on camera and there was nothing light hearted in the way 'Professor' Trump had proffered his advice.

On a more macro level the sense of looking out for ALL of the United States is totally absent with Mr Trump. It would seem either his agenda is not flexible to consider a bi-partisan enough or he simply does not have the DNA to be statesmanlike. We have an unhinged President who would rather pick a fight with a news reporter than pick a fight with the COVID 19 pandemic. Claiming that 'who knows one day this virus will just go away' is hopeless fantasy and hardly the sort of tincture that can ease the pain of 83,000 people dead. As estimates stand the most conservative model suggests that by August of this year the number of dead would nearly double the current level.

Soon after election Mr Trump was flouting the fact that he had executive powers! Why have these powers only be invoked on immigration, why doesn't Mr Trump invoke executive powers nationwide and bring about proper lock down measures to combat a virus that is tearing America at the seams. Why does he not reveal a cogent national plan and then use his powers to have every state follow it? At one point he even praised the people opposing a lockdown with protests saying they were very fine people. Mr President this virus does not ask you if you are fine person or not, this virus does not ask you if you are Republican or Democrat, and it certainly does not ask you if you are American or not, Christian, Jew or Muslim. Its indiscriminate in its selection, brutal in its spread and uncompromising in the fight it will give a patient, who if he or she can manage the many moments of gasping for air, may survive, otherwise will add to the long and growing list of the nameless dead.

Mr President please stop lying, stop blaming others, take a page from the book of other leaders who have stepped up and seem to be turning back the tide on this pandemic. You cannot simply be the best leader by only claiming it. You have to walk the miles, and these are going to be hard miles. No one is asking you to admit the failures of your leadership, that would be asking too much, one can only ask and pray that you will change; and change with the rising of the sun.

The human, economic, social and psychological impact of this pandemic is global and on a scale that we cannot really fathom just yet. Human perception of what will be normal in a post COVID 19 world is still in its formative phases, but one thing is sure that it will be a world full of fear. This is not the time to posture and pretend, its not the time to harangue on others, its not the time to make claims that even you do not understand. Its a time to become a leader, a time to emulate from the examples of Nelson Mandela, Winston Churchill, Charles de Gaulle, and many more. Look at the leadership shown in New Zealand, Denmark, Germany, South Korea, China (yes even China) and the UAE. These are leaders who did what is right, and with decisive and quick action and listened to the scientists and took on the pain of a complete lockdown knowing its immediate economic impact would be devastating, but knew not doing anything would be catastrophic.


In conclusion this is not about you, or your re-election bid, or the 'fake news' its about saving lives and for once putting the people you claim to lead before your own ego. There is still time to arrest the deluge of this pandemic. To do this doing what is right no matter what the cost of this to save lives must be done. The lockdowns and testing and isolation has worked in other countries and each day its delayed has a exponential effect, this leaves no room to procrastinate and try and spin the decision to a personal point of view. This is the moment which will define your leadership, and perhaps even forgive you for the egotistical few years we have had to endure you. Step forward now Mr Trump.

COVID 19: Economic impact.

There is little denying that the outbreak of the COVID 19 Coronavirus needed a policy response of lockdowns and suspension of key activities, like air travel and public events, which if not implemented could have had far serious health consequences to society. Whether self imposed or not, these policy decisions and the general slow down in social and economic activities have long term economic implications. Some countries, especially over populated and poor countries, have resisted a complete lock down given the weak economic sustainability within their systems to cater to the needs of the largely poor populations. While medical experts may be emphatic that such weaker economies and densely populated countries in Asia and Africa may not have yet seen the surge of COVID 19 inflections the decisions have not been easy.

Unlike the global financial crisis of 2009 this current economic downturn is caused by policy makers putting their economies into hibernation. In addition the footprint of this hibernation has been widespread and nondiscriminatory affecting the rich and poor segments of society in equal measure. Arguably one may feel the richer segments of society will be able to bounce back faster the reality is that the pandemics economic impact has been so far reaching that the rich having deeper pockets may not entirely isolated them for the COVID 19's impact.

This impact, in economic terms, will be over a few distinct segments of economic activities and will result in effects and stresses that will overlap and in a sense feed off each other. The foremost and most serious impact will be downturn in GDP across the globe and this will strain the indebtedness of nations, companies and individuals alike. A double digit decline in global GDP is very likely and already global trade is predicted to shrink by as much as 20%. This will give rise to more public and private debt and in the absence of a quick recovery, which is unlikely, will strain the financial system.  Particularly hard hit will be countries with already ballooning debt and weak social welfare infrastructures perhaps closing new avenues to borrow and thus potentially result in debt defaults.

In a number of cases governments have been quick to react with massive stimulus packages which US leading the pack with a $4 trillion stimulus package. Germany, UK, Spain, Japan, UAE, Saudi Arabia and others have been quick in creating the necessary stimulus packages which assure the economic downturn does not tailspin out of control and the necessary liquidity is there to support the financial system. However, other poorer countries do not have the luxury of such stimulus packages and may have to take fiscal measures, such a tax relief, lower interest rates etc, to try and stimulate their economies. It is likely that major lenders will support some sort of debt relief plan for these countries but this is more likely to evolve in the next few months rather be something immediate.

Another impact to the economy comes from the specifics of the lockdown having direct impact on some vital sectors of the economy. Such sectors would be Aviation, Hospitality, Tourism, general economic services, trade and the food industry. Perhaps the most noticeable impact will be and has been on the aviation industry. If planes don't fly and carry passengers eventually the debt supporting the planes and its operating costs eat up the company. While there is recognition that this sector must be the first to be revived and it is perceived that during May limited air travel will come back to the skies. However, this should not been expected to be quick ramp back to either full operations as before or indeed the passengers back to the pre-crisis levels. I personally believe that the aviation sector will take two to three years to recover and while some airlines may need a respirator to get through these difficult times, some may not make it.

The same can be said of the hospitality and tourism sectors which will be slow in their recovery and perhaps there will be needed a shrinkage of the market before it can return to health. Even if all restrictions on travel are lifted social behavior patterns suggest a sense of caution in people to make impulsive holiday trips. Global trade impact has already been seen though I would suspect that as normalcy returns global trade may be the first to show signs of a quicker recovery. The question remains whether producers of major commodities themselves have come out of this crisis in a healthy state or not.

The more micro impact of this will mean that governments will need to prepare bailout packages for major airlines, major companies and sectors within their economies. While the UK, USA, Germany have announced such packages have been created, though not yet touched, there is worry that countries like Italy, with its own massive national debt, may not have the resources to create rescue packages in such conditions. Indeed putting in place efficient and workable rescue packages for specific sectors is a vital element of any recovery.

The third and most significant impact of the COVID 19 will be on households and jobs. Indeed many countries have announced varying degrees of assistance schemes for households, but these are really relief schemes that can sustain a family for a month or two. Personal defaults on loans will sharply increase and the numbers of the unemployed swell. The social impact of this will be devastating to households and in some countries will and could lead to social unrest. Indeed the bet is that the quicker the economy is allowed to get out of this lockdown the return of the workforce from the hibernation will soften the impact of unemployment. However, this is a gradual process and could take a little time.

These three broad areas of economic impact also suggest the way forward for policy makers. Essential to a return to economic health of the global and regional economic systems is to quickly develop a strategy of exiting this economic hibernation that the lockdown has forced upon us. At some point in time the health imperatives will have to give way to the economic imperatives of a revival of the economies. In essence this is a balancing act and each country will have to measure how successful it medical response to COVID 19 has been and at what point of the pandemic curve can they ease the lockdowns. Clearly and complete and immediate release from a lockdown may not be advisable but a graduated response to the situation is highly possible and both medical and economic experts will have to work in tandem to achieve this.

A second and more challenging policy decision will be to deal with the economic fallout of the COVID 19 pandemic at the macro level. While stimulus and relief packages are much like band aid that the moment I do believe that the world economic system, especially the IMF and World Bank, will have to consider some longer term monetary impetus to especially the poorer and hardest hit countries. I would suggest that consideration be given to a Corona Bond structure which would essentially be a 30 year low interest bond which can be tied in its repayment to the GDP and other indicators of each borrowing country. This will allow the breathing space to achieve recovery in these countries over the next 3 to 5 years and then a gradual pay down of the debt, Such bond should come with minimum collars and conditions other than to pre-agree the deployment of these funds in essential economic recovery segments of each country. This would imply and deployment model that would vary from country to country.

The more complex and perplexing task will be dealing with the pandemics effects at the individual and household levels. The impact of this crisis will change the demographics of the work force without a doubt with some sectors losing jobs for an indefinite period, i.e aviation, tourism etc, and others, like health and industries involved in production of medical supplies, needing additional labor. For labor economists this would suggest an opportunity to retrain the workforce and eventual place them in the right sectors, but this is easier said than done. Relief packages cannot be sustained in the long run, even in strong social welfare economies, and measures taken at the macro economic level will have to trickle down into the economy to start having an impact on households. This implies it will be a painful process of waiting and readjusting and this is where the policy makers will be tested to the maximum.

Social unrest in the weaker economies with already chronic poverty cannot be ruled out and come socio political systems like say Venezuela may not be able to sustain any modicum of order even through the barrel of a gun. In this wider framework it is important that the world leadership work together to alleviate the hardships on households across the globe and avoid a break down of society at it most basic foundation.


In conclusion there is no one definitive path of decision making that can assure success. Each socio-economic system has its own challenge which has been severely effected by the COVID 19 pandemic. Indeed a vaccine may emerge in another year and then it may take another year or two for this vaccine to have been used enough to secure a healthier virus free future, but leaders must understand that there is no hyper drive to get us from today to there without considering the current and longer term impact of COVID 19. One thing is for sure that decisive policy makers will stand out as having made the better choices and perhaps the harder decisions, who they will be the verdict is still out there.

Coronavirus and Mother Earth

In my late teens I faced a terrible flooding in my homeland, and there, surrounded by nothing but endless water, I learned a lesson that never fight nature. In the end nature will always have its final say. It was a lesson pretty much lost on me for most of my years till the past couple of decades. The 'noise' of global warming and the melting ice packs and the decimation of many of our animal and plant life made one think that we are perhaps not kind to Mother Earth.

Conspiracy theories aside, there is little denying that we as the human race has disrespected the very earth that has nurtured us and provided for us. We have dumped chemicals in the rivers, garbage in the seas, carbon dioxide in the air, wiped out the rain forests and done it all in one sweeping slogan for the well being of only our own kind. We ignored scientists when we were told much of what we are doing could well be irreversible, we assume that the seas bounties would never diminish and water will clean itself of the pollution we have imposed upon it.

Now after almost 20 days of an world lockdown caused by the coronavirus we need to pause and think if its more deeper and important message.

Covid 19, the deadly strain of the coronavirus, has crippled the world like no other plague, natural or man made disaster or calamity could do so. Airlines are grounded, businesses are closed, people around the globe are in lockdown, sporting events suspended and the economic impact of this virus will run into trillions of dollars. Indeed in terms of its mortality rate it is less dangerous, thus far, than the flu or the ebola virus. However its ability to spread silently across the world, at times dormant, with a speed that is frightening suggests that this virus has perhaps effected more people than we currently have tested.

One has to wonder if this is not Mother Earth's way of telling us that it needs to breathe again. To remind us just as hard as it is to breathe when inflicted by this virus the Earth too has found it difficult to breathe for a good 100 years. There are no ventilators the for the earth to use, no ICUs and no hand sanitizers to wash off the germs of man's greedy exploitation of the Earth. For almost a month now the planes are not dumping the CO2 in the atmosphere, and cars and trains are less numbers, allowing the streets to breathe again. Look up into the sky now and the smog is much less and you can see the majesty of the sky at night, if only we can take this message from nature and remember is for centuries ahead.

It would seem however, the fight against this virus is far from over. Yes some countries have made notable progress in their actions, (China and South Korea) and countries who have acted fast and decisively have not had a mushrooming of cases (UAE, Germany, France among some others) and those who have acted late will perhaps witness the worse still to come (USA, and UK). Then there is a whole host of nations in Africa and Asia where the testing facilities are simply not in place so we really do not know the extent and scale of the virus' presence in these countries. Added to the fact that we have seen countries with fairly well developed health care systems struggle under the enormity of this pandemic, Italy, UK, USA, one shudders to think how countries will weak medical care facilities and little or no infrastructure, like India, Pakistan, Bangladesh etc will cope should this virus spread widely in these countries.

On the medium term outlook we do not know enough of the virus not to be sure that even where there has been success in combating it, like in China, there will not be second wave of infections down the road. The vaccine to combat this virus is far from ready and even on a fast track it will not be before the year end that we could see a vaccine emerge. What this means is that the COVID 19 virus will be part of our lives for quite a few months and we should adjust our lifestyle to be safe rather than sorry. It might give us pause to reflect whether this is not Mother Earths was of getting back to us.