COVID19: How much more bad news to come?

With over 5 million people infected world wide, and over and close to 350,00 people dead from the COVID 19 virus, the world has been taking stock of the social, economic and psychological impact of this silent killer. Under the pressure of their economies caving in many countries have taken small and tentative steps to reopen their societies in the hope of preventing an economic free fall and yet not having a new explosion of infections. It is to say the least a tricky situation. However, the global numbers are interesting to read and merely looking at the infection cases as a barometer of success or failure against this virus can be misleading.

It is clear that countries that took measures quickly to close down social interaction AND backed this up with widespread testing and isolation have had the best success so far. It would be fair to say, therefore, that these countries are best place for a gradual lifting of their lock down measures, even in graduated stages as they have a better perspective of the ground reality of the impact of the virus. One key indicator is "Test Per Million of Population". In short how many people per million have been tested for the virus. At the end of the blog is a table of countries with key data including the total number of tests per million people and the percentage of tests carried out in relation to the total population. (China's total test figures are not revealed but we do know the city of Wuhan, where the epidemic started from was entirely tested.)

Looking at the data it is clear that smaller countries were, generally, able to test more people than the more populous nations. UAE and Denmark with populations of 9.4m and 5.8m respectively managed to test 16.2% and 9.4% respectively. Hard hit Spain and Italy managed in the 5-6% of total population tested which in comparison to the larger countries is respectable. United States with 4.5% people tested, UK 5.1%, Germany 4.3% do have some catching up to do in terms of testing. New Zealand, Russia and Portugal all rank respectably above the 5% level of testing.

It follows that countries which top the table in terms of the percentage of population tested will be relatively more confident that not only have their measures paid off but they can take a reasonable risk in a gradual easing of the lock down in their countries. In general it would seem countries with over 7.5% of testing levels sit more comfortably, if there can be such a thing, than those who are struggling to test even 1% of their population.

It would be interesting to relate this data to the population density per square mile and see how the injections have been spread in more densely populated countries and how testing has measured up in those countries. What is more alarming, and perhaps the fear of a wider global infection, is that countries like India, Pakistan, Iran, Bangladesh all have very low testing levels. Iran comes in at 1% of testing, India 0.2% and both Pakistan and Bangladesh below that. Considering these countries make up about 1.6 billion people it is certain that if testing was carried out on a wider front their infection rates would be much higher. Sadly the political leadership of these countries is claiming that they have a small infection rate compared to the population and hence lock down measures can be relaxed. This is the red herring in the pile and we have to be careful to jump conclusions that a low infection rate means victory over the pandemic. That argument can only make sense if the testing is done at a higher percentage of the population.

It can also be seen that sparsely populated countries like New Zealand can see that the multiplier effect of infections in densely populated countries does not apply to them and they can see some measure of success given the level of testing and isolation that has been achieved. In the United States we may see this pattern repeated in much of rural America. However, densely populated cities, as we saw in New York, will have to achieve close to 10% of testing before they can seriously begin to think of a relaxation of the lock down measures.

What this data tells us is that countries who have tested widely and were quick to put in lock down and isolation measures will manage an earlier return to normality, as was seen in Wuhan, New Zealand, UAE, Bahrain, Iceland, Denmark and a few others. In the UK it would seem in terms of London the higher testing and isolation has helped reduce the spread of the virus, however, arguably the same measures did not get implemented across UK early enough to see a nationwide impact. One could argue that UK may have to reach close to 9-10% of population tested as a level to breathe easier.

United States, perhaps the one country that acted way to late and only in the last three weeks have been playing catch. One would suspect that there is worse to come in the major cities of USA before things can get better. The situation is all the more compounded by the political pressure across American to reopen the economy and ease or remove the lockdowns. This, in my opinion, is setting the stage for a second wave of infections which might well emerge in August. The data, as analyzed for China, New Zealand, Iceland and others with moderate success against the virus suggests that if three things are done together and very strictly then the whole cycle of this virus takes and average 86 days to start showing a reversal of the trends. How much longer to declare complete victory remains to be seen. These three measures are a) TESTING, b) LOCKDOWN, and c) ISOLATION OF POSITIVE TESTED PEOPLE. These are the minimum essential tools to begin combating the COVID 19 virus.

The more dangerous writing on the wall is the way this pandemic will pan out in India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Indonesia, and other low tested but highly populated countries. Assuming that in India 5% testing was achieved and given the current ratios that 3-5% of tested people show they have the symptoms of the virus it suggested that India alone could have 2.5 million cases! While there is a fleeting hope that before this pandemic reveals it full impact through more testing people that the virus may have mutated itself to the point where it cannot spread anymore. As of today there is no scientific evidence that the warmer months or some self mutating death of the virus will take place. We must therefore brace ourselves for the worst to come. Easing the lock downs without proper examination may result in some countries with a second wave of infections.

	BY percentage test rank
	Country,	Total	Tests/	Population	%age POP tested
	Other	Tests	1M pop
	World
1	Iceland	58,225	170,739	341,018	17.1%
2	Bahrain	283,884	167,519	1,694,642	16.8%
3	UAE	1,600,923	162,071	9,877,923	16.2%
4	Luxembourg	68,107	108,990	624,891	10.9%
5	Lithuania	269,889	99,015	2,725,743	9.9%
6	Denmark	546,621	94,405	5,790,165	9.4%
7	Spain	3,556,567	76,071	46,752,999	7.6%
8	Belgium	788,110	68,031	11,584,564	6.8%
9	Portugal	689,705	67,621	10,199,578	6.8%
10	Qatar	192,484	66,931	2,875,845	6.7%
11	Kuwait	273,812	64,217	4,263,883	6.4%
12	Russia	8,945,384	61,300	145,928,315	6.1%
13	Ireland	295,626	59,940	4,932,053	6.0%
14	Israel	541,322	58,855	9,197,590	5.9%
15	Italy	3,482,253	57,586	60,470,472	5.8%
16	Estonia	75,779	57,129	1,326,447	5.7%
17	New Zealand	261,315	54,235	4,818,226	5.4%
18	UK	3,458,905	50,979	67,850,075	5.1%
19	Singapore	294,414	50,365	5,845,641	5.0%
20	Belarus	463,004	48,997	9,449,627	4.9%
21	Australia	1,245,062	48,885	25,469,064	4.9%
22	Austria	405,341	45,032	9,001,207	4.5%
23	USA	14,893,561	45,022	330,806,424	4.5%
24	Norway	234,637	43,316	5,416,911	4.3%
25	Switzerland	372,146	43,032	8,648,175	4.3%
26	Germany	3,595,059	42,922	83,757,235	4.3%
27	Canada	1,479,838	39,244	37,708,187	3.9%
28	Czechia	403,358	37,672	10,707,014	3.8%
29	Slovenia	76,384	36,742	2,078,910	3.7%
30	Kazakhstan	671,774	35,822	18,753,268	3.6%
31	Finland	168,700	30,452	5,539,869	3.0%
32	Slovakia	159,059	29,135	5,459,382	2.9%
33	Azerbaijan	273,411	26,991	10,129,784	2.7%
34	Chile	488,041	25,553	19,099,374	2.6%
35	Serbia	220,344	25,209	8,740,747	2.5%
36	Peru	820,967	24,936	32,923,430	2.5%
37	Djibouti	23,140	23,457	986,480	2.3%
38	Turkey	1,832,262	21,749	84,244,944	2.2%
39	France	1,384,633	21,217	65,259,187	2.1%
40	Sweden	209,900	20,797	10,092,886	2.1%
41	Saudi Arabia	722,079	20,776	34,756,224	2.1%
42	Poland	779,576	20,596	37,850,650	2.1%
43	Romania	377,191	19,595	19,249,829	2.0%
44	Mayotte	5,200	19,112	272,084	1.9%
45	Netherlands	324,918	18,967	17,131,112	1.9%
46	Bosnia and Herzegovina	59,934	18,257	3,282,754	1.8%
47	Armenia	51,594	17,415	2,962,695	1.7%
48	Hungary	164,619	17,037	9,662,723	1.7%
49	S. Korea	826,437	16,121	51,264,841	1.6%
50	Malaysia	513,370	15,883	32,322,531	1.6%
51	Kyrgyzstan	100,488	15,430	6,512,696	1.5%
52	Croatia	62,422	15,196	4,107,668	1.5%
53	Greece	155,037	14,867	10,427,916	1.5%
54	Oman	72,000	14,140	5,092,104	1.4%
55	Uzbekistan	460,000	13,765	33,417,915	1.4%
56	Panama	58,240	13,520	4,307,539	1.4%
57	North Macedonia	25,528	12,253	2,083,382	1.2%
58	El Salvador	75,146	11,591	6,482,911	1.2%
59	Bulgaria	74,539	10,720	6,953,369	1.1%
60	Moldova	40,565	10,054	4,034,871	1.0%
61	South Africa	583,855	9,857	59,230,390	1.0%
62	Iran	818,917	9,763	83,880,266	1.0%
63	Cuba	94,060	8,304	11,327,291	0.8%
64	Ukraine	291,868	6,670	43,758,701	0.7%
65	Dominican Republic	69,608	6,423	10,836,671	0.6%
66	Ghana	197,194	6,361	31,002,078	0.6%
67	Ecuador	106,079	6,022	17,614,626	0.6%
68	Thailand	375,453	5,380	69,782,581	0.5%
69	Colombia	252,742	4,973	50,826,673	0.5%
70	Iraq	194,444	4,846	40,123,092	0.5%
71	Gabon	9,908	4,463	2,219,916	0.4%
72	Morocco	146,598	3,977	36,864,928	0.4%
73	Brazil	735,224	3,461	212,405,664	0.3%
74	Argentina	129,418	2,866	45,153,114	0.3%
75	Philippines	301,677	2,757	109,427,802	0.3%
76	India	3,033,591	2,200	1,378,604,014	0.2%
77	Pakistan	483,656	2,194	220,427,217	0.2%
78	Japan	271,201	2,144	126,513,796	0.2%
79	Senegal	35,016	2,097	16,694,358	0.2%
80	Bolivia	22,294	1,913	11,656,259	0.2%
81	Guatemala	31,427	1,758	17,879,798	0.2%
82	Mexico	219,164	1,702	128,792,446	0.2%
83	Bangladesh	253,034	1,538	164,519,918	0.2%
84	Honduras	14,790	1,496	9,887,829	0.1%
85	Egypt	135,000	1,322	102,125,693	0.1%
86	Guinea	14,407	1,100	13,092,620	0.1%
87	Indonesia	256,946	940	273,223,931	0.1%
88	Ivory Coast	23,444	891	26,305,483	0.1%
89	Afghanistan	31,718	817	38,831,756	0.1%
90	Nigeria	44,458	216	205,570,171	0.0%
91	Sudan	401	9	43,735,987	0.0%
92	China			1,439,323,776	0.0%

A letter to President Trump

When one bends the truth, fabricates lies, and draw an image of oneself far removed from reality it is going to have consequences on the people around you and yourself. Insofar as the disconnect from reality concerns one's own persona it can be laughable and in the end people will not just not take your word seriously. However, when you are the President of the United States, the laughable becomes lamentable, the spin of reality becomes a unique window into the mind of the most powerful leader on the planet. Add to this the worst pandemic in recent times, a pandemic which has claimed over 80,000 US lives, and the worse is still to come, then the leadership expected from the White House has to be top drawer.

One watched in horror how a press conference where a reporter posed a serious question on the pandemic resulted in a Trumpian tantrum resulting in a walk out by President Trump is just symptomatic of the problems that face the American people. A leader caught up in the web spun by his own ego that the gravity of 1.4 million people, of today, infected by the virus and more people having died than in the Vietnam war, suggested a total failure of leadership.

Mr Trump started his COVID 19 position from denial; it was something that was never going to hit the United States, and even if a few cases came over he was sure he had the defenses in place. The nonchalant leadership went so far as to continue to hold political rallies in February and even March when cases in the US were beginning to crop up in isolated pockets. Then Trump took on the role of some scientist who had just stepped out of a research lab  offering different medications as possible remedies to the virus. At one stage going so far as to, seriously, suggest if detergent was to be drunk would it not kill the virus. Not much later he claimed it was a light hearted comment, forgetting the suggestion itself was caught on camera and there was nothing light hearted in the way 'Professor' Trump had proffered his advice.

On a more macro level the sense of looking out for ALL of the United States is totally absent with Mr Trump. It would seem either his agenda is not flexible to consider a bi-partisan enough or he simply does not have the DNA to be statesmanlike. We have an unhinged President who would rather pick a fight with a news reporter than pick a fight with the COVID 19 pandemic. Claiming that 'who knows one day this virus will just go away' is hopeless fantasy and hardly the sort of tincture that can ease the pain of 83,000 people dead. As estimates stand the most conservative model suggests that by August of this year the number of dead would nearly double the current level.

Soon after election Mr Trump was flouting the fact that he had executive powers! Why have these powers only be invoked on immigration, why doesn't Mr Trump invoke executive powers nationwide and bring about proper lock down measures to combat a virus that is tearing America at the seams. Why does he not reveal a cogent national plan and then use his powers to have every state follow it? At one point he even praised the people opposing a lockdown with protests saying they were very fine people. Mr President this virus does not ask you if you are fine person or not, this virus does not ask you if you are Republican or Democrat, and it certainly does not ask you if you are American or not, Christian, Jew or Muslim. Its indiscriminate in its selection, brutal in its spread and uncompromising in the fight it will give a patient, who if he or she can manage the many moments of gasping for air, may survive, otherwise will add to the long and growing list of the nameless dead.

Mr President please stop lying, stop blaming others, take a page from the book of other leaders who have stepped up and seem to be turning back the tide on this pandemic. You cannot simply be the best leader by only claiming it. You have to walk the miles, and these are going to be hard miles. No one is asking you to admit the failures of your leadership, that would be asking too much, one can only ask and pray that you will change; and change with the rising of the sun.

The human, economic, social and psychological impact of this pandemic is global and on a scale that we cannot really fathom just yet. Human perception of what will be normal in a post COVID 19 world is still in its formative phases, but one thing is sure that it will be a world full of fear. This is not the time to posture and pretend, its not the time to harangue on others, its not the time to make claims that even you do not understand. Its a time to become a leader, a time to emulate from the examples of Nelson Mandela, Winston Churchill, Charles de Gaulle, and many more. Look at the leadership shown in New Zealand, Denmark, Germany, South Korea, China (yes even China) and the UAE. These are leaders who did what is right, and with decisive and quick action and listened to the scientists and took on the pain of a complete lockdown knowing its immediate economic impact would be devastating, but knew not doing anything would be catastrophic.


In conclusion this is not about you, or your re-election bid, or the 'fake news' its about saving lives and for once putting the people you claim to lead before your own ego. There is still time to arrest the deluge of this pandemic. To do this doing what is right no matter what the cost of this to save lives must be done. The lockdowns and testing and isolation has worked in other countries and each day its delayed has a exponential effect, this leaves no room to procrastinate and try and spin the decision to a personal point of view. This is the moment which will define your leadership, and perhaps even forgive you for the egotistical few years we have had to endure you. Step forward now Mr Trump.

COVID 19: Economic impact.

There is little denying that the outbreak of the COVID 19 Coronavirus needed a policy response of lockdowns and suspension of key activities, like air travel and public events, which if not implemented could have had far serious health consequences to society. Whether self imposed or not, these policy decisions and the general slow down in social and economic activities have long term economic implications. Some countries, especially over populated and poor countries, have resisted a complete lock down given the weak economic sustainability within their systems to cater to the needs of the largely poor populations. While medical experts may be emphatic that such weaker economies and densely populated countries in Asia and Africa may not have yet seen the surge of COVID 19 inflections the decisions have not been easy.

Unlike the global financial crisis of 2009 this current economic downturn is caused by policy makers putting their economies into hibernation. In addition the footprint of this hibernation has been widespread and nondiscriminatory affecting the rich and poor segments of society in equal measure. Arguably one may feel the richer segments of society will be able to bounce back faster the reality is that the pandemics economic impact has been so far reaching that the rich having deeper pockets may not entirely isolated them for the COVID 19's impact.

This impact, in economic terms, will be over a few distinct segments of economic activities and will result in effects and stresses that will overlap and in a sense feed off each other. The foremost and most serious impact will be downturn in GDP across the globe and this will strain the indebtedness of nations, companies and individuals alike. A double digit decline in global GDP is very likely and already global trade is predicted to shrink by as much as 20%. This will give rise to more public and private debt and in the absence of a quick recovery, which is unlikely, will strain the financial system.  Particularly hard hit will be countries with already ballooning debt and weak social welfare infrastructures perhaps closing new avenues to borrow and thus potentially result in debt defaults.

In a number of cases governments have been quick to react with massive stimulus packages which US leading the pack with a $4 trillion stimulus package. Germany, UK, Spain, Japan, UAE, Saudi Arabia and others have been quick in creating the necessary stimulus packages which assure the economic downturn does not tailspin out of control and the necessary liquidity is there to support the financial system. However, other poorer countries do not have the luxury of such stimulus packages and may have to take fiscal measures, such a tax relief, lower interest rates etc, to try and stimulate their economies. It is likely that major lenders will support some sort of debt relief plan for these countries but this is more likely to evolve in the next few months rather be something immediate.

Another impact to the economy comes from the specifics of the lockdown having direct impact on some vital sectors of the economy. Such sectors would be Aviation, Hospitality, Tourism, general economic services, trade and the food industry. Perhaps the most noticeable impact will be and has been on the aviation industry. If planes don't fly and carry passengers eventually the debt supporting the planes and its operating costs eat up the company. While there is recognition that this sector must be the first to be revived and it is perceived that during May limited air travel will come back to the skies. However, this should not been expected to be quick ramp back to either full operations as before or indeed the passengers back to the pre-crisis levels. I personally believe that the aviation sector will take two to three years to recover and while some airlines may need a respirator to get through these difficult times, some may not make it.

The same can be said of the hospitality and tourism sectors which will be slow in their recovery and perhaps there will be needed a shrinkage of the market before it can return to health. Even if all restrictions on travel are lifted social behavior patterns suggest a sense of caution in people to make impulsive holiday trips. Global trade impact has already been seen though I would suspect that as normalcy returns global trade may be the first to show signs of a quicker recovery. The question remains whether producers of major commodities themselves have come out of this crisis in a healthy state or not.

The more micro impact of this will mean that governments will need to prepare bailout packages for major airlines, major companies and sectors within their economies. While the UK, USA, Germany have announced such packages have been created, though not yet touched, there is worry that countries like Italy, with its own massive national debt, may not have the resources to create rescue packages in such conditions. Indeed putting in place efficient and workable rescue packages for specific sectors is a vital element of any recovery.

The third and most significant impact of the COVID 19 will be on households and jobs. Indeed many countries have announced varying degrees of assistance schemes for households, but these are really relief schemes that can sustain a family for a month or two. Personal defaults on loans will sharply increase and the numbers of the unemployed swell. The social impact of this will be devastating to households and in some countries will and could lead to social unrest. Indeed the bet is that the quicker the economy is allowed to get out of this lockdown the return of the workforce from the hibernation will soften the impact of unemployment. However, this is a gradual process and could take a little time.

These three broad areas of economic impact also suggest the way forward for policy makers. Essential to a return to economic health of the global and regional economic systems is to quickly develop a strategy of exiting this economic hibernation that the lockdown has forced upon us. At some point in time the health imperatives will have to give way to the economic imperatives of a revival of the economies. In essence this is a balancing act and each country will have to measure how successful it medical response to COVID 19 has been and at what point of the pandemic curve can they ease the lockdowns. Clearly and complete and immediate release from a lockdown may not be advisable but a graduated response to the situation is highly possible and both medical and economic experts will have to work in tandem to achieve this.

A second and more challenging policy decision will be to deal with the economic fallout of the COVID 19 pandemic at the macro level. While stimulus and relief packages are much like band aid that the moment I do believe that the world economic system, especially the IMF and World Bank, will have to consider some longer term monetary impetus to especially the poorer and hardest hit countries. I would suggest that consideration be given to a Corona Bond structure which would essentially be a 30 year low interest bond which can be tied in its repayment to the GDP and other indicators of each borrowing country. This will allow the breathing space to achieve recovery in these countries over the next 3 to 5 years and then a gradual pay down of the debt, Such bond should come with minimum collars and conditions other than to pre-agree the deployment of these funds in essential economic recovery segments of each country. This would imply and deployment model that would vary from country to country.

The more complex and perplexing task will be dealing with the pandemics effects at the individual and household levels. The impact of this crisis will change the demographics of the work force without a doubt with some sectors losing jobs for an indefinite period, i.e aviation, tourism etc, and others, like health and industries involved in production of medical supplies, needing additional labor. For labor economists this would suggest an opportunity to retrain the workforce and eventual place them in the right sectors, but this is easier said than done. Relief packages cannot be sustained in the long run, even in strong social welfare economies, and measures taken at the macro economic level will have to trickle down into the economy to start having an impact on households. This implies it will be a painful process of waiting and readjusting and this is where the policy makers will be tested to the maximum.

Social unrest in the weaker economies with already chronic poverty cannot be ruled out and come socio political systems like say Venezuela may not be able to sustain any modicum of order even through the barrel of a gun. In this wider framework it is important that the world leadership work together to alleviate the hardships on households across the globe and avoid a break down of society at it most basic foundation.


In conclusion there is no one definitive path of decision making that can assure success. Each socio-economic system has its own challenge which has been severely effected by the COVID 19 pandemic. Indeed a vaccine may emerge in another year and then it may take another year or two for this vaccine to have been used enough to secure a healthier virus free future, but leaders must understand that there is no hyper drive to get us from today to there without considering the current and longer term impact of COVID 19. One thing is for sure that decisive policy makers will stand out as having made the better choices and perhaps the harder decisions, who they will be the verdict is still out there.