COVID19: How much more bad news to come?

With over 5 million people infected world wide, and over and close to 350,00 people dead from the COVID 19 virus, the world has been taking stock of the social, economic and psychological impact of this silent killer. Under the pressure of their economies caving in many countries have taken small and tentative steps to reopen their societies in the hope of preventing an economic free fall and yet not having a new explosion of infections. It is to say the least a tricky situation. However, the global numbers are interesting to read and merely looking at the infection cases as a barometer of success or failure against this virus can be misleading.

It is clear that countries that took measures quickly to close down social interaction AND backed this up with widespread testing and isolation have had the best success so far. It would be fair to say, therefore, that these countries are best place for a gradual lifting of their lock down measures, even in graduated stages as they have a better perspective of the ground reality of the impact of the virus. One key indicator is "Test Per Million of Population". In short how many people per million have been tested for the virus. At the end of the blog is a table of countries with key data including the total number of tests per million people and the percentage of tests carried out in relation to the total population. (China's total test figures are not revealed but we do know the city of Wuhan, where the epidemic started from was entirely tested.)

Looking at the data it is clear that smaller countries were, generally, able to test more people than the more populous nations. UAE and Denmark with populations of 9.4m and 5.8m respectively managed to test 16.2% and 9.4% respectively. Hard hit Spain and Italy managed in the 5-6% of total population tested which in comparison to the larger countries is respectable. United States with 4.5% people tested, UK 5.1%, Germany 4.3% do have some catching up to do in terms of testing. New Zealand, Russia and Portugal all rank respectably above the 5% level of testing.

It follows that countries which top the table in terms of the percentage of population tested will be relatively more confident that not only have their measures paid off but they can take a reasonable risk in a gradual easing of the lock down in their countries. In general it would seem countries with over 7.5% of testing levels sit more comfortably, if there can be such a thing, than those who are struggling to test even 1% of their population.

It would be interesting to relate this data to the population density per square mile and see how the injections have been spread in more densely populated countries and how testing has measured up in those countries. What is more alarming, and perhaps the fear of a wider global infection, is that countries like India, Pakistan, Iran, Bangladesh all have very low testing levels. Iran comes in at 1% of testing, India 0.2% and both Pakistan and Bangladesh below that. Considering these countries make up about 1.6 billion people it is certain that if testing was carried out on a wider front their infection rates would be much higher. Sadly the political leadership of these countries is claiming that they have a small infection rate compared to the population and hence lock down measures can be relaxed. This is the red herring in the pile and we have to be careful to jump conclusions that a low infection rate means victory over the pandemic. That argument can only make sense if the testing is done at a higher percentage of the population.

It can also be seen that sparsely populated countries like New Zealand can see that the multiplier effect of infections in densely populated countries does not apply to them and they can see some measure of success given the level of testing and isolation that has been achieved. In the United States we may see this pattern repeated in much of rural America. However, densely populated cities, as we saw in New York, will have to achieve close to 10% of testing before they can seriously begin to think of a relaxation of the lock down measures.

What this data tells us is that countries who have tested widely and were quick to put in lock down and isolation measures will manage an earlier return to normality, as was seen in Wuhan, New Zealand, UAE, Bahrain, Iceland, Denmark and a few others. In the UK it would seem in terms of London the higher testing and isolation has helped reduce the spread of the virus, however, arguably the same measures did not get implemented across UK early enough to see a nationwide impact. One could argue that UK may have to reach close to 9-10% of population tested as a level to breathe easier.

United States, perhaps the one country that acted way to late and only in the last three weeks have been playing catch. One would suspect that there is worse to come in the major cities of USA before things can get better. The situation is all the more compounded by the political pressure across American to reopen the economy and ease or remove the lockdowns. This, in my opinion, is setting the stage for a second wave of infections which might well emerge in August. The data, as analyzed for China, New Zealand, Iceland and others with moderate success against the virus suggests that if three things are done together and very strictly then the whole cycle of this virus takes and average 86 days to start showing a reversal of the trends. How much longer to declare complete victory remains to be seen. These three measures are a) TESTING, b) LOCKDOWN, and c) ISOLATION OF POSITIVE TESTED PEOPLE. These are the minimum essential tools to begin combating the COVID 19 virus.

The more dangerous writing on the wall is the way this pandemic will pan out in India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Indonesia, and other low tested but highly populated countries. Assuming that in India 5% testing was achieved and given the current ratios that 3-5% of tested people show they have the symptoms of the virus it suggested that India alone could have 2.5 million cases! While there is a fleeting hope that before this pandemic reveals it full impact through more testing people that the virus may have mutated itself to the point where it cannot spread anymore. As of today there is no scientific evidence that the warmer months or some self mutating death of the virus will take place. We must therefore brace ourselves for the worst to come. Easing the lock downs without proper examination may result in some countries with a second wave of infections.

	BY percentage test rank
	Country,	Total	Tests/	Population	%age POP tested
	Other	Tests	1M pop
	World
1	Iceland	58,225	170,739	341,018	17.1%
2	Bahrain	283,884	167,519	1,694,642	16.8%
3	UAE	1,600,923	162,071	9,877,923	16.2%
4	Luxembourg	68,107	108,990	624,891	10.9%
5	Lithuania	269,889	99,015	2,725,743	9.9%
6	Denmark	546,621	94,405	5,790,165	9.4%
7	Spain	3,556,567	76,071	46,752,999	7.6%
8	Belgium	788,110	68,031	11,584,564	6.8%
9	Portugal	689,705	67,621	10,199,578	6.8%
10	Qatar	192,484	66,931	2,875,845	6.7%
11	Kuwait	273,812	64,217	4,263,883	6.4%
12	Russia	8,945,384	61,300	145,928,315	6.1%
13	Ireland	295,626	59,940	4,932,053	6.0%
14	Israel	541,322	58,855	9,197,590	5.9%
15	Italy	3,482,253	57,586	60,470,472	5.8%
16	Estonia	75,779	57,129	1,326,447	5.7%
17	New Zealand	261,315	54,235	4,818,226	5.4%
18	UK	3,458,905	50,979	67,850,075	5.1%
19	Singapore	294,414	50,365	5,845,641	5.0%
20	Belarus	463,004	48,997	9,449,627	4.9%
21	Australia	1,245,062	48,885	25,469,064	4.9%
22	Austria	405,341	45,032	9,001,207	4.5%
23	USA	14,893,561	45,022	330,806,424	4.5%
24	Norway	234,637	43,316	5,416,911	4.3%
25	Switzerland	372,146	43,032	8,648,175	4.3%
26	Germany	3,595,059	42,922	83,757,235	4.3%
27	Canada	1,479,838	39,244	37,708,187	3.9%
28	Czechia	403,358	37,672	10,707,014	3.8%
29	Slovenia	76,384	36,742	2,078,910	3.7%
30	Kazakhstan	671,774	35,822	18,753,268	3.6%
31	Finland	168,700	30,452	5,539,869	3.0%
32	Slovakia	159,059	29,135	5,459,382	2.9%
33	Azerbaijan	273,411	26,991	10,129,784	2.7%
34	Chile	488,041	25,553	19,099,374	2.6%
35	Serbia	220,344	25,209	8,740,747	2.5%
36	Peru	820,967	24,936	32,923,430	2.5%
37	Djibouti	23,140	23,457	986,480	2.3%
38	Turkey	1,832,262	21,749	84,244,944	2.2%
39	France	1,384,633	21,217	65,259,187	2.1%
40	Sweden	209,900	20,797	10,092,886	2.1%
41	Saudi Arabia	722,079	20,776	34,756,224	2.1%
42	Poland	779,576	20,596	37,850,650	2.1%
43	Romania	377,191	19,595	19,249,829	2.0%
44	Mayotte	5,200	19,112	272,084	1.9%
45	Netherlands	324,918	18,967	17,131,112	1.9%
46	Bosnia and Herzegovina	59,934	18,257	3,282,754	1.8%
47	Armenia	51,594	17,415	2,962,695	1.7%
48	Hungary	164,619	17,037	9,662,723	1.7%
49	S. Korea	826,437	16,121	51,264,841	1.6%
50	Malaysia	513,370	15,883	32,322,531	1.6%
51	Kyrgyzstan	100,488	15,430	6,512,696	1.5%
52	Croatia	62,422	15,196	4,107,668	1.5%
53	Greece	155,037	14,867	10,427,916	1.5%
54	Oman	72,000	14,140	5,092,104	1.4%
55	Uzbekistan	460,000	13,765	33,417,915	1.4%
56	Panama	58,240	13,520	4,307,539	1.4%
57	North Macedonia	25,528	12,253	2,083,382	1.2%
58	El Salvador	75,146	11,591	6,482,911	1.2%
59	Bulgaria	74,539	10,720	6,953,369	1.1%
60	Moldova	40,565	10,054	4,034,871	1.0%
61	South Africa	583,855	9,857	59,230,390	1.0%
62	Iran	818,917	9,763	83,880,266	1.0%
63	Cuba	94,060	8,304	11,327,291	0.8%
64	Ukraine	291,868	6,670	43,758,701	0.7%
65	Dominican Republic	69,608	6,423	10,836,671	0.6%
66	Ghana	197,194	6,361	31,002,078	0.6%
67	Ecuador	106,079	6,022	17,614,626	0.6%
68	Thailand	375,453	5,380	69,782,581	0.5%
69	Colombia	252,742	4,973	50,826,673	0.5%
70	Iraq	194,444	4,846	40,123,092	0.5%
71	Gabon	9,908	4,463	2,219,916	0.4%
72	Morocco	146,598	3,977	36,864,928	0.4%
73	Brazil	735,224	3,461	212,405,664	0.3%
74	Argentina	129,418	2,866	45,153,114	0.3%
75	Philippines	301,677	2,757	109,427,802	0.3%
76	India	3,033,591	2,200	1,378,604,014	0.2%
77	Pakistan	483,656	2,194	220,427,217	0.2%
78	Japan	271,201	2,144	126,513,796	0.2%
79	Senegal	35,016	2,097	16,694,358	0.2%
80	Bolivia	22,294	1,913	11,656,259	0.2%
81	Guatemala	31,427	1,758	17,879,798	0.2%
82	Mexico	219,164	1,702	128,792,446	0.2%
83	Bangladesh	253,034	1,538	164,519,918	0.2%
84	Honduras	14,790	1,496	9,887,829	0.1%
85	Egypt	135,000	1,322	102,125,693	0.1%
86	Guinea	14,407	1,100	13,092,620	0.1%
87	Indonesia	256,946	940	273,223,931	0.1%
88	Ivory Coast	23,444	891	26,305,483	0.1%
89	Afghanistan	31,718	817	38,831,756	0.1%
90	Nigeria	44,458	216	205,570,171	0.0%
91	Sudan	401	9	43,735,987	0.0%
92	China			1,439,323,776	0.0%

A letter to President Trump

When one bends the truth, fabricates lies, and draw an image of oneself far removed from reality it is going to have consequences on the people around you and yourself. Insofar as the disconnect from reality concerns one's own persona it can be laughable and in the end people will not just not take your word seriously. However, when you are the President of the United States, the laughable becomes lamentable, the spin of reality becomes a unique window into the mind of the most powerful leader on the planet. Add to this the worst pandemic in recent times, a pandemic which has claimed over 80,000 US lives, and the worse is still to come, then the leadership expected from the White House has to be top drawer.

One watched in horror how a press conference where a reporter posed a serious question on the pandemic resulted in a Trumpian tantrum resulting in a walk out by President Trump is just symptomatic of the problems that face the American people. A leader caught up in the web spun by his own ego that the gravity of 1.4 million people, of today, infected by the virus and more people having died than in the Vietnam war, suggested a total failure of leadership.

Mr Trump started his COVID 19 position from denial; it was something that was never going to hit the United States, and even if a few cases came over he was sure he had the defenses in place. The nonchalant leadership went so far as to continue to hold political rallies in February and even March when cases in the US were beginning to crop up in isolated pockets. Then Trump took on the role of some scientist who had just stepped out of a research lab  offering different medications as possible remedies to the virus. At one stage going so far as to, seriously, suggest if detergent was to be drunk would it not kill the virus. Not much later he claimed it was a light hearted comment, forgetting the suggestion itself was caught on camera and there was nothing light hearted in the way 'Professor' Trump had proffered his advice.

On a more macro level the sense of looking out for ALL of the United States is totally absent with Mr Trump. It would seem either his agenda is not flexible to consider a bi-partisan enough or he simply does not have the DNA to be statesmanlike. We have an unhinged President who would rather pick a fight with a news reporter than pick a fight with the COVID 19 pandemic. Claiming that 'who knows one day this virus will just go away' is hopeless fantasy and hardly the sort of tincture that can ease the pain of 83,000 people dead. As estimates stand the most conservative model suggests that by August of this year the number of dead would nearly double the current level.

Soon after election Mr Trump was flouting the fact that he had executive powers! Why have these powers only be invoked on immigration, why doesn't Mr Trump invoke executive powers nationwide and bring about proper lock down measures to combat a virus that is tearing America at the seams. Why does he not reveal a cogent national plan and then use his powers to have every state follow it? At one point he even praised the people opposing a lockdown with protests saying they were very fine people. Mr President this virus does not ask you if you are fine person or not, this virus does not ask you if you are Republican or Democrat, and it certainly does not ask you if you are American or not, Christian, Jew or Muslim. Its indiscriminate in its selection, brutal in its spread and uncompromising in the fight it will give a patient, who if he or she can manage the many moments of gasping for air, may survive, otherwise will add to the long and growing list of the nameless dead.

Mr President please stop lying, stop blaming others, take a page from the book of other leaders who have stepped up and seem to be turning back the tide on this pandemic. You cannot simply be the best leader by only claiming it. You have to walk the miles, and these are going to be hard miles. No one is asking you to admit the failures of your leadership, that would be asking too much, one can only ask and pray that you will change; and change with the rising of the sun.

The human, economic, social and psychological impact of this pandemic is global and on a scale that we cannot really fathom just yet. Human perception of what will be normal in a post COVID 19 world is still in its formative phases, but one thing is sure that it will be a world full of fear. This is not the time to posture and pretend, its not the time to harangue on others, its not the time to make claims that even you do not understand. Its a time to become a leader, a time to emulate from the examples of Nelson Mandela, Winston Churchill, Charles de Gaulle, and many more. Look at the leadership shown in New Zealand, Denmark, Germany, South Korea, China (yes even China) and the UAE. These are leaders who did what is right, and with decisive and quick action and listened to the scientists and took on the pain of a complete lockdown knowing its immediate economic impact would be devastating, but knew not doing anything would be catastrophic.


In conclusion this is not about you, or your re-election bid, or the 'fake news' its about saving lives and for once putting the people you claim to lead before your own ego. There is still time to arrest the deluge of this pandemic. To do this doing what is right no matter what the cost of this to save lives must be done. The lockdowns and testing and isolation has worked in other countries and each day its delayed has a exponential effect, this leaves no room to procrastinate and try and spin the decision to a personal point of view. This is the moment which will define your leadership, and perhaps even forgive you for the egotistical few years we have had to endure you. Step forward now Mr Trump.

COVID 19: Economic impact.

There is little denying that the outbreak of the COVID 19 Coronavirus needed a policy response of lockdowns and suspension of key activities, like air travel and public events, which if not implemented could have had far serious health consequences to society. Whether self imposed or not, these policy decisions and the general slow down in social and economic activities have long term economic implications. Some countries, especially over populated and poor countries, have resisted a complete lock down given the weak economic sustainability within their systems to cater to the needs of the largely poor populations. While medical experts may be emphatic that such weaker economies and densely populated countries in Asia and Africa may not have yet seen the surge of COVID 19 inflections the decisions have not been easy.

Unlike the global financial crisis of 2009 this current economic downturn is caused by policy makers putting their economies into hibernation. In addition the footprint of this hibernation has been widespread and nondiscriminatory affecting the rich and poor segments of society in equal measure. Arguably one may feel the richer segments of society will be able to bounce back faster the reality is that the pandemics economic impact has been so far reaching that the rich having deeper pockets may not entirely isolated them for the COVID 19's impact.

This impact, in economic terms, will be over a few distinct segments of economic activities and will result in effects and stresses that will overlap and in a sense feed off each other. The foremost and most serious impact will be downturn in GDP across the globe and this will strain the indebtedness of nations, companies and individuals alike. A double digit decline in global GDP is very likely and already global trade is predicted to shrink by as much as 20%. This will give rise to more public and private debt and in the absence of a quick recovery, which is unlikely, will strain the financial system.  Particularly hard hit will be countries with already ballooning debt and weak social welfare infrastructures perhaps closing new avenues to borrow and thus potentially result in debt defaults.

In a number of cases governments have been quick to react with massive stimulus packages which US leading the pack with a $4 trillion stimulus package. Germany, UK, Spain, Japan, UAE, Saudi Arabia and others have been quick in creating the necessary stimulus packages which assure the economic downturn does not tailspin out of control and the necessary liquidity is there to support the financial system. However, other poorer countries do not have the luxury of such stimulus packages and may have to take fiscal measures, such a tax relief, lower interest rates etc, to try and stimulate their economies. It is likely that major lenders will support some sort of debt relief plan for these countries but this is more likely to evolve in the next few months rather be something immediate.

Another impact to the economy comes from the specifics of the lockdown having direct impact on some vital sectors of the economy. Such sectors would be Aviation, Hospitality, Tourism, general economic services, trade and the food industry. Perhaps the most noticeable impact will be and has been on the aviation industry. If planes don't fly and carry passengers eventually the debt supporting the planes and its operating costs eat up the company. While there is recognition that this sector must be the first to be revived and it is perceived that during May limited air travel will come back to the skies. However, this should not been expected to be quick ramp back to either full operations as before or indeed the passengers back to the pre-crisis levels. I personally believe that the aviation sector will take two to three years to recover and while some airlines may need a respirator to get through these difficult times, some may not make it.

The same can be said of the hospitality and tourism sectors which will be slow in their recovery and perhaps there will be needed a shrinkage of the market before it can return to health. Even if all restrictions on travel are lifted social behavior patterns suggest a sense of caution in people to make impulsive holiday trips. Global trade impact has already been seen though I would suspect that as normalcy returns global trade may be the first to show signs of a quicker recovery. The question remains whether producers of major commodities themselves have come out of this crisis in a healthy state or not.

The more micro impact of this will mean that governments will need to prepare bailout packages for major airlines, major companies and sectors within their economies. While the UK, USA, Germany have announced such packages have been created, though not yet touched, there is worry that countries like Italy, with its own massive national debt, may not have the resources to create rescue packages in such conditions. Indeed putting in place efficient and workable rescue packages for specific sectors is a vital element of any recovery.

The third and most significant impact of the COVID 19 will be on households and jobs. Indeed many countries have announced varying degrees of assistance schemes for households, but these are really relief schemes that can sustain a family for a month or two. Personal defaults on loans will sharply increase and the numbers of the unemployed swell. The social impact of this will be devastating to households and in some countries will and could lead to social unrest. Indeed the bet is that the quicker the economy is allowed to get out of this lockdown the return of the workforce from the hibernation will soften the impact of unemployment. However, this is a gradual process and could take a little time.

These three broad areas of economic impact also suggest the way forward for policy makers. Essential to a return to economic health of the global and regional economic systems is to quickly develop a strategy of exiting this economic hibernation that the lockdown has forced upon us. At some point in time the health imperatives will have to give way to the economic imperatives of a revival of the economies. In essence this is a balancing act and each country will have to measure how successful it medical response to COVID 19 has been and at what point of the pandemic curve can they ease the lockdowns. Clearly and complete and immediate release from a lockdown may not be advisable but a graduated response to the situation is highly possible and both medical and economic experts will have to work in tandem to achieve this.

A second and more challenging policy decision will be to deal with the economic fallout of the COVID 19 pandemic at the macro level. While stimulus and relief packages are much like band aid that the moment I do believe that the world economic system, especially the IMF and World Bank, will have to consider some longer term monetary impetus to especially the poorer and hardest hit countries. I would suggest that consideration be given to a Corona Bond structure which would essentially be a 30 year low interest bond which can be tied in its repayment to the GDP and other indicators of each borrowing country. This will allow the breathing space to achieve recovery in these countries over the next 3 to 5 years and then a gradual pay down of the debt, Such bond should come with minimum collars and conditions other than to pre-agree the deployment of these funds in essential economic recovery segments of each country. This would imply and deployment model that would vary from country to country.

The more complex and perplexing task will be dealing with the pandemics effects at the individual and household levels. The impact of this crisis will change the demographics of the work force without a doubt with some sectors losing jobs for an indefinite period, i.e aviation, tourism etc, and others, like health and industries involved in production of medical supplies, needing additional labor. For labor economists this would suggest an opportunity to retrain the workforce and eventual place them in the right sectors, but this is easier said than done. Relief packages cannot be sustained in the long run, even in strong social welfare economies, and measures taken at the macro economic level will have to trickle down into the economy to start having an impact on households. This implies it will be a painful process of waiting and readjusting and this is where the policy makers will be tested to the maximum.

Social unrest in the weaker economies with already chronic poverty cannot be ruled out and come socio political systems like say Venezuela may not be able to sustain any modicum of order even through the barrel of a gun. In this wider framework it is important that the world leadership work together to alleviate the hardships on households across the globe and avoid a break down of society at it most basic foundation.


In conclusion there is no one definitive path of decision making that can assure success. Each socio-economic system has its own challenge which has been severely effected by the COVID 19 pandemic. Indeed a vaccine may emerge in another year and then it may take another year or two for this vaccine to have been used enough to secure a healthier virus free future, but leaders must understand that there is no hyper drive to get us from today to there without considering the current and longer term impact of COVID 19. One thing is for sure that decisive policy makers will stand out as having made the better choices and perhaps the harder decisions, who they will be the verdict is still out there.

NMC: Salvaging a future?

To long time residents of UAE NMC and the name of B R Shetty were hallowed as a rags to riches story that Emaratis and expatriates both alluded to with pride. That success story has crashed to the ground amid allegations of fraud, deception, and left a gaping hole in the financial stability of the NMC group. Considering it’s future being torn between a forced liquidation and court administration leading to some semblance of normality it is important to understand how all this happened.

Only a few days ago B R Shetty was interviewed by a Dubai based newspaper and all he had to say was wish the newly appointed Chairman the best. The reporter did not bother to ask what B R, as he was commonly known, thought of the debacle of his mighty empire? How could $4 billion plus of loans not only not be recorded in the books of the company but the proceeds used for ventures of related companies? With Central Risk data on each borrower available did not the lending banks reconcile their exposures with the central risk data? How much of this lending by banks, especially in the UAE was name lending because it was BR and how could it go wrong? The Board of the company had stalwarts from auditing powerhouses who after retiring were serving on the Board of the company. Surely was their experience not available to create compliance within the company?

Bankers who piled in such colossal debt, $6 billion of it, of which $4 billion was unrecorded, cannot plead ignorance to the situation. We are not talking of a 10% misreporting of debt but a misreporting of over 200%? One of BR’s modus operandi was to cultivate bankers within different banks who were sold on the BR story and credit compliance may have been out aside to please the man. The authorities will need to do a massive forensic exercise into the lending process and credit decision making in the case of the exposure to BR and his group of companies.

This brings one to what is the solution. Someone once said that when banks have over lent to a company then they only hurt themselves in enforcing a liquidation. The total worth of the group is perhaps $2 billion with a forced sale value of perhaps less than half of that. Banks will lose a great deal by being stubborn about this settlement. A white knight buying the business, which in the long run can become solvent, is unlikely given the current situation.

Thus in my view the banks should agree to roll their exposures into a consolidated ten year loan with all lenders agreeing to inter-creditor agreements. A board including major lenders and industry experts should be created and a recovery path be worked out. Side by side actions to recover the funds diverted to related companies should begin in earnest and quickly. All $4 billion of unrecorded debts could not have just disappeared without creating an asset trail.

Lenders should be prepared to extend the ten year consolidated loan even further depending on the recovery process. It is important to get the patient out of ICU, don’t mind the pun, and given the critical role health care plays in the country and region it is likely down the road strategic long term investors including government entities will emerge. The health care model is good and it would seem that BR and his cohorts were smart not to cripple that part of the company. Why would they? It was the cash cow they could leverage to take unrecorded loans. While these remain allegations it would seem in time more details will emerge of the massive hole that has been left in the company.

If banks want to be short sighted and seek a forced liquidation I suspect that there will be enough eager investors to pick up select health care assets. However the realised values will be no where near the level of he current exposure. A forced sale might well be the eventual course that this saga will take, however of all the options it will more than likely be a very painful process.

Coronavirus and Mother Earth

In my late teens I faced a terrible flooding in my homeland, and there, surrounded by nothing but endless water, I learned a lesson that never fight nature. In the end nature will always have its final say. It was a lesson pretty much lost on me for most of my years till the past couple of decades. The 'noise' of global warming and the melting ice packs and the decimation of many of our animal and plant life made one think that we are perhaps not kind to Mother Earth.

Conspiracy theories aside, there is little denying that we as the human race has disrespected the very earth that has nurtured us and provided for us. We have dumped chemicals in the rivers, garbage in the seas, carbon dioxide in the air, wiped out the rain forests and done it all in one sweeping slogan for the well being of only our own kind. We ignored scientists when we were told much of what we are doing could well be irreversible, we assume that the seas bounties would never diminish and water will clean itself of the pollution we have imposed upon it.

Now after almost 20 days of an world lockdown caused by the coronavirus we need to pause and think if its more deeper and important message.

Covid 19, the deadly strain of the coronavirus, has crippled the world like no other plague, natural or man made disaster or calamity could do so. Airlines are grounded, businesses are closed, people around the globe are in lockdown, sporting events suspended and the economic impact of this virus will run into trillions of dollars. Indeed in terms of its mortality rate it is less dangerous, thus far, than the flu or the ebola virus. However its ability to spread silently across the world, at times dormant, with a speed that is frightening suggests that this virus has perhaps effected more people than we currently have tested.

One has to wonder if this is not Mother Earth's way of telling us that it needs to breathe again. To remind us just as hard as it is to breathe when inflicted by this virus the Earth too has found it difficult to breathe for a good 100 years. There are no ventilators the for the earth to use, no ICUs and no hand sanitizers to wash off the germs of man's greedy exploitation of the Earth. For almost a month now the planes are not dumping the CO2 in the atmosphere, and cars and trains are less numbers, allowing the streets to breathe again. Look up into the sky now and the smog is much less and you can see the majesty of the sky at night, if only we can take this message from nature and remember is for centuries ahead.

It would seem however, the fight against this virus is far from over. Yes some countries have made notable progress in their actions, (China and South Korea) and countries who have acted fast and decisively have not had a mushrooming of cases (UAE, Germany, France among some others) and those who have acted late will perhaps witness the worse still to come (USA, and UK). Then there is a whole host of nations in Africa and Asia where the testing facilities are simply not in place so we really do not know the extent and scale of the virus' presence in these countries. Added to the fact that we have seen countries with fairly well developed health care systems struggle under the enormity of this pandemic, Italy, UK, USA, one shudders to think how countries will weak medical care facilities and little or no infrastructure, like India, Pakistan, Bangladesh etc will cope should this virus spread widely in these countries.

On the medium term outlook we do not know enough of the virus not to be sure that even where there has been success in combating it, like in China, there will not be second wave of infections down the road. The vaccine to combat this virus is far from ready and even on a fast track it will not be before the year end that we could see a vaccine emerge. What this means is that the COVID 19 virus will be part of our lives for quite a few months and we should adjust our lifestyle to be safe rather than sorry. It might give us pause to reflect whether this is not Mother Earths was of getting back to us.

Coronavirus: A view of UAE

In modern times no crisis has been as devastating and extensive in its effect as has been the Coronavirus. Business shutdowns, social distancing, sanitization, suspension of international travel, closure of public places and a halt to sports events are just some of the immediate effects of this virus that come to mind. Skeptics will tell us that the flu kills more people than this virus, and had the plague been in the era of social media the effect of our social consciousness would have been far greater.

Indeed social media has added to the over all way we see this pandemic as billions of people has talking, sharing and giving out news through Facebook, Twitter, Instagram and many other platforms. In a sense this attention has also been good that it has woken many people from a carefree slumber to take the coronavirus seriously.

In the United Arab Emirates attention to the virus and talk about it has been widespread. However the response of the authorities to the coronavirus has, by and large, been good and effective. The measures to close schools early, stop events and limit social outings has been graduated upwards each day in a response to the pandemics progress too. However, under the surface, testing has been widespread and most of all awareness has been across the board. Super markets have taken to sanitizing the trolleys after each customer has used it, staff are generally wearing gloves and masks and even at the beach I have seen the municipality workers cleaning up and taking the usual precautions.

On Friday I visited a riding school to pick up someone and was not allowed in. He had to come out, sign out with security and few hours later when I dropped him off he was tested at the entrance. He later told me every second day all the staff at the riding center, which is owned by the Government of Sharjah, are tested. All this is being done without the hysteria we are seeing in many other countries.

Speaking to a doctor, who is knowledgable about such viruses he informed me that whole a majority of those who test positive will recover from the coronavirus, the threat is that unlike other viruses this spreads very fast and usually for the first seven days does so without showing symptoms. While those with weak immune systems and generally the elderly are most vulnerable, the virus as of today has no vaccine readily available and perhaps will not for another year, given the long period of testing and approval of such medicines. Doctors in Australia have reported good results from using a quinine based vaccine used for malaria in patients who has shown serious symptoms of the coronavirus. The current coronavirus is named COVID 19 and has a 70% genetic similarity to the SARS virus some years back. It must be noted that even a common cold is technically a coronavirus; each strain of the corona virus differs in the way the cells attach to the receptor cells of the person infected and hence this determines their unique identification; like MERS, SARS and now COVID 19.

It is too soon to make any predictions of which of the current experiments will work, but the message coming out is prevention is the best cure. In this respect kudos does go to the UAE authorities for their measured response in limiting activities where people could be exposed to the risk of the corona virus. Cinema's, entertainment parks, beaches (since today) and schools being closed and many offices adopting a policy of 'work from home' are all very good measures. I do personally wonder why shopping malls have yet not been closed down, even though admittedly there has been a serious drop in the footfall at the malls, it still remains the one public place that is still open.

As these closures took place there was the inevitable rush at the stores and for about four days it was not uncommon to see empty shelves in almost every large hyper market. By Saturday afternoon things had returned to normal and the country's leadership made a public statement that there is no need for any panic as there are enough food and supplies to overcome this pandemic. Judging by the speed at which empty shelves were restocked indicates this to be entirely true.

A bio-medical model has been used to determine the pandemics profile. Using the Wuhan data it is interesting to note that this model about two weeks ago predicted that if the measures of testing and control are effective then within 86 days a downward trend in the infections will show up and after another 21 odd days the pandemic can said to have been contained. The Wuhan cases were first identified in December 2019 so it seems the bio-medical model seems right when around March 19th 2020 a slow down of new cases was reported from Wuhan in China.

This implies if the countries take quick action and widespread and effective action then perhaps within a period of 110 odd days the effects of the virus within a country can be brought under control. One of the key elements of this action has to be testing because it allows one to profile an infected person in terms of his/her contacts over the previous 48 hours. Then through quick isolation of the people (can be self isolation) who the infected person has been with the spread is contained. On a wider front the quick reaction of closing the places where contacts are frequent indicates a throw of a wide fishing net that ensures slowing down the spread of the virus.

I believe that the measures taken in the UAE seem effective and it is highly likely that within a period of 100 odd days the spread of the virus might well slow down and contained.

India under BJP

Soon after India's abrogation of Article 370, which gave a special constitutional status to Kashmir, India enforced a lock down on Indian controlled Kashmir. It arrested political leaders and activists and shut down internet and control of movement into Kashmir was tightly restricted. Since the August 5th, 2019 shut down the situation has been pretty much the same, with some restoration of internet and telephone services, but with an overwhelming presence of Indian military the situation in Indian Kashmir can hardly be described as normal.

In 1999, at the height of the Kargil war between India and Pakistan, Kashmir was considered the hottest spot for conflict in the world. Today after over 200 days of what the UN special rapporteur described as a 'draconian shut down', there is, internationally, an eerie silence about the situation in Indian Kashmir. At the height of the crisis the Indian government itself admitted that 4,000 people had been arrested of whom 200 were politicians. While there has been a release of some prisoners, the numbers are still significantly high.

Prime Minister Modi and Interior Minister Amit Shah's move on Kashmir was not a bolt out of the blue but part of a strategy encapsulated in their party, BJP's, agenda. In the years leading up to the recent Indian action in Kashmir, New Delhi embarked on an aggressive public relations strategy highlighting their economic position, trade relations and repositioned their foreign relations with countries who could possibly be foremost in making a noise against the Indian treatment of the largely Muslim population of Kashmir. It is therefore not surprising that little governmental condemnation of India has been expressed in recent months.

Indeed Human Rights organizations, the various sections of the UN and leading NGO's have been more forthright about concern over India's Kashmir actions and the recent Citizenship Act (which deprives millions of their Indian nationality). The major powers, like United States, Russia, the United Kingdom and France have been hesitant to criticize India directly and have, on the Kashmir issue, refrained from castigating New Delhi of its draconian measures.

On a broader perspective there is concern that philosophically and ideologically, India under Modi and the BJP, has gone through a paradigm shift where democracy has been replaced with oligarchy, where a radical nationalist agenda in which an ‘India for Hindus only’ agenda has infested the psyche of the Indian majority, leaving over 250 million religious minorities at risk. The fabric of a secular India, which many of us admired, even if imperfect, is being rewoven into a Hindustan identity where even history is being rewritten to emphasize that India is Hindustan, which by the new definition means that other than Hindus everyone else is a second class citizen.

The history of India, much like any nation is layered through centuries of different predominant currents of cultural, social and religious persuasion. From ancient times the influence of Buddhism , Hinduism, Jainism, Muslim and British rule have moulded the India of today. Just as Any country cannot ride itself of its ancient past India too cannot rename its identity as simply as it renamed cities like Bombay to Mumbai. A secular India ensured that not only is the past history preserved it also allowed the segments of India's multi ethnic and multi cultural and diverse religious population to prosper and coexist side by side.

The India that Modi and the BJP are forging is inherently based upon a trait of hate, which harvested will only yield blood as the recent riots in New Delhi have shown. A lesson of history has shown that a misplaced sense of nationalism is a close cousin of fascism and this genie is not easy to put back into the bottle. Germany under Nazism, Italy under Mussolini, are just two examples of what happens when nationalism turned on its head can cause immense social and political damage.

The more telling question is whether Indians in general realize that the strength of their secular ethos has been sapped by the BJP and the rhetoric that rings in the streets of many Indian towns and cities under this new dogma will not bring unity to India but more discord. India is not a homogenous nation and its many diverse languages, customs and ethnic shades found a commonality in India's secular colors. Under BJP and Modi they are playing dangerous games with the same threads that bound Indian society together and when snapped the repercussions will not be pleasant for India.


India's strength was its diversity, the fact that Sonia Ghandi, an Italian by birth and upbringing could integrate into the India that Ghandi and Nehru envisioned and not only integrate but lead one of its major political parties, spoke of the power of India's secular tolerance. When replaced with intolerance the very Indian-ness of India becomes threatened and this is what Indians must wake up to and correct before its too late.