US Election possible aftermath.

 In two weeks the fate of America’s democracy and the shape of its society will be decided. To say these are troubling times is an understatement and that the complexion of society is not only shaped now but a continuation of trends we have seen since 2016. Polarisation is to be expected in political societies but never has it been laced with hate, anger, disinformation and ethnic tensions as we see now. As much as this is a battle for votes and swing states, more importantly, it is the battle for the mind of Americans.

The challenges that will emerge from election result can be daunting and for America’s sake one hopes these challenges are minimal. It might be helpful to explore the outcomes and their consequences:

A Trump Victory.

Notwithstanding the polls, where a Trump defeat seems on the cards, Trump could spring a surprise like 2016, and win enough swing states to be re-elected. While this will mean a continuation of the way we have sen things in the past four years, a re-elected Trump will be vicious in his attacks on his detractors. He will take firmer control of the Republican Party moulding it closer to how he wants it to be, even pushing his relatives to secure their political future. 

In the event a Trump victory is accompanied with a loss of the Senate then tensions between Congress and  the White House will reach a crescendo. It is more likely that his extremist right wing supporters, including the militias, might well intimidate his detractors in the Senate. These groups may also see a Trump victory as a license to impose their own style of vigilante justice. 

In a more broader level, a Trump victory will harden the lines of division within American society and result in further polarisation the cost of which will be borne by the average American on the street. Observe social media and you will see a form of anger and hate has crept into US political society that with every tweet, every angry profanity inflicts a wound on the social fibre that will be harder to heal. Will a Trump victory heal these wounds? Will his MAGA supporters be magnanimous in victory? Will race relations improve? 

A Biden Victory.

A Biden victory may well be seen as a return to normalcy, especially if accompanied with a Democrat party hold over the Senate. However, over the past two months Trump has been setting the stage for disputing any election result that does not grant him victory. There is a suggestion that a landslide victory for Biden is the only way for Trump to peacefully concede the election, however this could well be wishful thinking. 

If it is a close election then Trump will resort to the courts much like the Bush versus Gore election. Trumps hope remains that a Supreme Court with three of his appointees, all of whom were involved in the Bush-Gore case, could tilt the decision in his favour. However, this cannot be a forgone conclusion as judges cannot blatantly lean to a political agenda and judges have voted against what is expected often. 

If we see a Biden landslide we may see Trump conceding, let’s say a 30% chance, but be assured he will still go to the courts. It is in his nature to litigate and will hope his base, many of whom are white supremacists, will agitate enough to make it more difficult for his successor. In this scenario his comment to the militias to “standby” assumes particular significance. A small curtain raiser was that two weeks after his standby comment a plot to kidnap a Democrat Governor was unearthed and linked to a white militia group. 

We know Trump will not be a gracious loser and a nightmare scenario could well be him refusing to leave office and claim the whole election was fraudulent. It is not clear what mechanism exists to then force him to leave office as this has never been tested before. Yet there is confidence that sense might prevail and enough influence brought to bear on him to accept an overwhelming defeat. One cannot rule out that he may bargain a pardon in return for leaving office.

These are testing times for Americans and one can appreciate the emotion and passion we see. As painful as the anger and lack of respect for different political views exists one can only hope decency and the need to heal will prevail.

An unhinged Trump and another four years?

The Democratic impeachment of Donald Trump was destined to fail in large measure due to partisan politics in the US Congress. This was a fore gone conclusion and if the Democrats hoped the impeachment process would dent the credibility of the incumbent US President there was little mileage in that effort. Trumps resonance to his base and the undecided voters is not based on what is goon in human nature but more on the unsaid in decades of US politics. If Gray Hart in 1988 had to bow out of politics for his alleged affairs with women, Donald Trump in 2016 could flick off any political fall out even when his own words showed his misogynist trait because character is no more an issue for the electorate.

Trump's impeachment proceedings clearly highlight probable cause for impeachment, but without more witnesses enough wiggle room was there for Trump and his party to squeeze out of the discomfort of some on the line Republican senators from joining the impeachment camp. The thing about Trump has been that while he has elevated politicians lying to art form, his decisive and at times racial bias have become more the norm than the exception. His die hard supporters rejoice at his remarks against the Mexicans, Muslims and African countries (amongst others) because this is something they would have wanted to say themselves without being called 'politically incorrect'.

On the Democratic party side the impeachment proceedings were too rushed, leaving one to question why more witnesses were not brought before the House Committees; even though some subpoenas to Trump officials were ignored. On the broader political forum there is no denying the Democratic party has continued to be in disarray and the Iowa caucus fiasco only highlights their problems. Senior leadership of the party is lacking, and in general none of the current flock of Presidential hopefuls make one step back and say 'Wow'. The Obama legacy of a strong unified party has been left of the wayside, thanks in part of the Hilary Clinton era of an election run against Trump which lacked planning and intent.

What all this might mean is that a Trump re-election, as unpalatable as that may sound, his win in the 2020 election will not be because of him being the better candidate but because the Democrats are just not organized enough to have a charismatic leader to take on Trump. Much like boxing promoters one can only wish for a Trump versus Obama election fight but sadly that is not to be; even though I do believe Obama would have trounced Trump within the ten rounds. In a sense Michelle Obama against Donald Trump stands a better chance of winning than any of the current aspirants in the Democratic stable. This is not because the current coterie of Democratic candidates are not qualified enough, it just that they are not unqualified enough as Trump to tackle him on his terms; a dirty campaign!

Unless Trump does something more off the wall than he has done so far, and that is not impossible, the chances are that a Trump re-election, albeit with a smaller margin than 2016, is more than likely. A reinvigorated Trump with scale higher in his arrogance, and certainly we have a larger dose of his un Presidential style through the next four years. The impact of the trade wars he started may well come home to roost in his next term and any slow down will hurt the average American more than ever before. Will there be further attempts to impeach him? Highly doubtful unless the Republicans also lose control of the Senate, which is possible. Some Trump supporters may hope that a second term may bring out the better Trump and negate some of the damage he has done to the prestige of the office he occupies. This would only be necessary for the greater good of the Republican party because when it comes to congressional elections and local council politics the Democratic party has managed a better showing; they only seem to fail at the level of the national leadership.

Sadly for the impartial observer the next four years of an unhinged President Trump will be hard to follow. Frequent changes in his team, scandals and the general lack of an ethical bent to the administration will remain the order of the day. On the good side of things it will mean the end of the era of Trump, an era where crudeness, lack of honor and a slide into unhinged tweeting were the hallmarks of the Presidency.




 

Trump and Twitter: The role of social media in US Politics.

President Trump, as candidate for the Presidential election, whether by design or through the sheer twist of his personality used social media, and especially Twitter, to create a phenomenon that actually won him the election. I do not believe this was a thought out strategy but it fell into a space where his personality benefited from the use of this 160 words messaging blitz per message and as it snowballed into a massive following of over 55 million followers, it became his chosen platform of communication. While admittedly not all 55 million are his ardent admirers it did draw into his base of followers. Without disrespect to his base, most of them did not prefer to delve into the 3000 word articles analyzing the position of different candidates on national and even international issues. Like Trump their attention span fitted into the Twitter format perfectly.

But this was only the backdrop in which then candidate Trump and now President, tweeted over 35,000 tweets in the past year alone. Spending months analyzing Trumps Twitter behavior reveals something interesting. Not prone to a serious debate or deep intellectual discourses on the state of the world or the US, Trump realized that he could say anything on Twitter and in a nano second it would not only be read but believed by his followers. If it was a lie, and many of his tweets were fabrications, then people would, much like the world of Twitter just simply move on.

His biggest coup was apparent when Hilary Clinton was speaking at the Democratic Convention and while she was speaking, Donald Trump was tweeting, in real time, his rebuttals, some of which were not accurate, to a much larger audience. Having sent his tirade of tweets out while Hilary was speaking he forced the hand of the press corp to then not only report on what Hilary had said but in real time also refer to what Trump had said on those issues. This was unprecedented as in the past such a speech would have been reported as it happened only the next day or hours later the rebuttals from opposing candidates would be reported. In a sense Trump was diluting Hilary's message.

Because no one in political circles had seen this sort of use of social media the political pundits considered Trump inexperienced, immature politically to have a serious view point. But these intellectual stalwarts forgot one important thing, Trump was outflanking them and appealing to the very people who did not read or want to read the lengthy articles in the main media. Like Trump they liked in the world of the nano second, and it did not matter to them what anyone else said but like it or not Trump had not only the first move advantage on Twitter, he relentlessly hogged that space.

Fact checking Trumps tweets does reveal in general he was lying, bending facts, or simply attacking people. But this did not matter because much like Twitters architecture a message has a limited life out there and yes people can comment and correct the tweet, but still the original message has found its mark. Importantly Trump followed one cardinal rule, he ignored all replies to his tweets, even those that praised him, the few that they were, because to him these views that did not agree with him did not matter, they were just noise. The media outlets that liked his message believed his tweets with messianic fervor, his detractors laughed at him, but beneath the surface he managed to communicate with his base in a simple language they liked, truth or not.

As President, Trump has not given up Twitter and even used it to go after North Korea, China, Nato, Mexico, Canada, you name it and he has done it. Many purists believe, and rightly so, that Twitter during a campaign and Twitter as President are two different roles and it is not becoming of the President of the United States to use Twitter to demean and attack people. However, perhaps its a habit with Donald Trump that he cannot quit Twitter, or that he simply believes the electioneering must continue and twitter is the weapon of choice to him. Even as President the spread of lies through Twitter does not bother him because unlike other President these mid term elections are really a battle for his survival. He knows if his predicted red wave falters, then even his supporters in Congress will jump ship, all the more reason many of them have followed him for the fear that his base may turn against them. However, in time the US public will realize that his core base cannot be larger than the electorate and the test of that is around the corner.

For the moment Trump has only two weapons in his hands; his public rallies and his Twitter account. He has spent less time working as President than he has on the campaign trail trying to get his loyal candidates elected, sometimes sounding as if it was he fighting the election and not them. It seems its a matter of time when, like Kanye West, others realize that Donald Trump has used and abused their support. For the moment one has to give him his due credit for knowing the power of Twitter was powerful enough to tell lies and still be elected.

Why Trump Offends me?

Donald Trump has, through the politics of fear and division, become the sole Republican candidate for the US Presidential race; however he represents all that I find offensive. Offensive may sound a rather harsh word to describe a man who may, if such a tragedy were to happen, become the US President, but realistically there is nothing 'presidential' about the man. His views on women, hispanic people, and muslims all reek of a hateful venom that is not befitting of the stature of the Oval office.

However, this is a personal view and hence from the perspective of a Muslim his broad brush scathing characterisation of Muslims is not just xenophobic but down right ignorant. While I was born a Muslim, over the past five odd years I embarked on a more deeper journey to understand my religion and to study and even question some of the views about Muslims and some of the views of the radical stream of Muslims. It is very evident to me that the problem is not with Islam but with some of its followers, who have a twisted view of message. This is not different from the fact that many religions have die hard radicals, be it Christianity or even Buddhism (reference the radical attacks by Buddhists in Burma), the actions of such group do not make all Christians or Buddhists or for that matter any religion terrorists and undesirables.

While Mr Trump was a day ago back pedalling on his comment that he would not allow 'any' muslims into the US to now say it is only a 'suggestion', the hard reality is that he has already shown his true colours. This is not political rethinking, this is blatant lying. Sadly the electorate that he appeals to is ignorant of the Islam and for that matter most things outside the US, and a message of hate and fear resonates well with them. I am sure that if Donald Trump was asked if he has even read one book on Islam, (other than the xenophobic anti Islam books) or had an intelligent discussion with an Islamic scholar the answer would surely be in the negative.

In Great Britain, in contrasting style, the city of London elected Sadiq Khan as the first Muslim Mayor. While me may all focus on the fact that he is a Muslim, Sadiq Khan is actually many things; a British citizen, born of Pakistani immigrant, a European modern thinking Muslim, a father, a lawyer and a politician and a Londoner. In this interdependent world we all have many sub identities which put together the person we are, and the reality is that I can be modern thinking Muslim who believes in the social fabric of union rather than division. What Trump needs is a serious sit down with Mr Sadiq Khan and be open minded enough to learn a think or two about tolerance.

I have been to the United States many times, and yes at times, after 9/11, had to wait two or three hours to be cleared to enter the country, but without reservation every American I have met has been open and accommodating and tolerant. From New York to Dallas, from California to Denver, from Chicago to Florida not once has anyone been put off by my religion, ethnicity or country of origin, if anything people have been pleasantly curious. Trump is changing this by appealing the a minority of ignorant people who are fearful of anything foreign to them and feeding this fear is what is offensive.

The hope I hold is that the average American is decent, welcoming and friendly and shuns the politics of hate and division and perhaps deep down realises each one of them is a descendant of an immigrant, (barring the Native Americans), and in the Presidential election these people will speak up through their vote. This is a time for unity of acceptance and tolerance, this is a time for understanding and embracing the differences, it is a time for healing and growing stronger in the community of nations. The message of Mr Trump is the anti-thesis of everything that is hailed as good and decent in society, and in this basic stance I find him offensive, and no amount of somersaults and change of position will not change the fact that the basic nature of this man is petty, hateful and rude.

Sarah Palin: A view from abroad

When an unknown person pops up on the political stage, especially one that figures the center stage of the US Presidential election, we can either applaud the stroke of genius or wonder what the hell happened here. In the case of Sarah Palin, the emotions from the outside are neither, they are more like a total disbelief that a person who has governed a state where there are more elk then people and who prides herself to have 'pitbull' fighting instincts can be placed a heartbeat away from the most powerful person on Earth.

Thanks to the internet, the media and ofcourse seeing her in her first interview I have wondered to myself, do I want a woman who has not political sense of the world, (i.e. Bush Doctrine question drew a blank), has never met another head of state, and really doesn't have clue where perhaps the continents are to be the Vice President of a country that has made it its business to be in every backyard of the world; simply no way. Sarah Palin and the impending 'statetrooper-gate' matter clearly shows this woman carries her grudges, rewards her friends (five appointees who were school friends and takes her fights public. What seems dangerous is that she has enough people who will cover for her, take the fall for her, and judging by her body language and speech, this is one nasty woman in the neighborhood.

Now how would Sarah 'pitbull' Palin perform on the world scene? First of all she may be ignorant of the Bush Doctrine but she is cast too much in his mould. and therefore will have a propensity to continue to use force as a means of international policy. Second, since she seems to pride herself as someone who doesn't give up an argument it is more likely that her interface with world leaders will not be entirely pleasant. It is one thing to be intelligent and argumentative, but given she seems almost in grade one of international politics being argumentative may not be the wisest thing to do.

It would seem that the Palin factor will appeal to the hawks in the Republican party, but whether the Hillary supporters will shift from the Democrats to support a mediocre political lightweight remains to be seen. There is so far little substance to the striking looks of a woman who could perhaps be the most manipulative figure in US political history. I also suspect more will be revealed of the woman who pretty much sees herself as the lone sheriff in the old West town. The scary part is she will shoot before she looks, and that is where the problem is. Someone once said 'never put your mouth into motion before your brain is in gear'. It would seem that might be a word of advice for Sarah Palin.

McCain-Palin: wool over the eyes

If I was only listening to the words from both Sen McCain and Gov Palin talking about Washington and how they will change Washington I would have sworn these were Democrats talking of changing eight years of Washington politics. Actually this is the biggest wool over the eyes attempt by the McCain-Palin camp to pretend that they are part of the people who will change eight years of mismanagement in Washington. It is almost as of McCain is trying to disown the Bush years, and in this way by putting aside the legacy he and Palin are running the risk of being in the mid stream of Republican politics and shedding them to be party less. Lets face it the McCain economic plan is exactly the same as that of the Bush years, so the current pain that is hurting American people is the same economic policies that McCain has embraced.

Gov Sarah Palin is ofcourse a surprise and while initially the gambit has paid off and the 'Palin who?' response was fed with her unique style of speech the reality is that she didn't say a word about universal medical care, education or the economy, actually showing how weak she is on these issues. The reality remains that the likes of McCain-Palin have never had the poor on the agenda and now try to review their mandate with rhetorical speeches; weak on substance, and emotional triggers. At the end of the day McCain played his prisoner of war (we are talking of the one over 35 years ago) card and Palin played her 'hockey mom' card when in reality none of her kids play hockey. Once the euphoria of all this dies we will find that Palin will actually be a liability even though she is being portrayed as an ideological heiress to the George W Bush without the liability of having been associated with him. The issue remains that she does not have the experience for the job and her handlers know (all politicians have handlers who tell them what to do) that there is just so much mileage you can get from stage craft.

If the American people buy this drama then indeed they have the wool pulled all the way over their face, perhaps down to their knees.