Trump Unbundled

 People deserve the leaders they choose. This is all the more valid for democracies where the assumption is that the electorate is educated and politically astute. Four years ago as Donald Trump created a divisive agenda and embellished a campaign with lies and racist slant one felt the United States of America was getting what it deserved. Even though one knew Trump had hijacked the Republican Party there was an inner voice that hoped he could step in as the 45th President and change by embracing the statesmen like qualities that the Oval Office thrusts upon its incumbents.

Four years later and the circus of the US election is unfolding again. It is obvious that there is a hard core of Trump supporters who continue to embrace President Trump believing in the hyperbole he has been spinning. It is unlikely that die hard core of his base will embrace the truth of Trumps failures as a man and as a President even when faced with his lack of action on the COVID 19 pandemic that has left close to 180,00 Americans dead. The fact he has embraced white supremacists, ridiculed minorities and shunned responsibility for the failures of his office do not matter to them. 

In 2016 the media played into Trumps strategy by giving him more air time each time he made unspeakable remarks and in a sense gave a platform for his views rather than ignoring him. Now the challenge is to unbundle this President even though Trump has a state machinery to defend the agenda and his position. However, one must admit that Trump’s success in 2016 was also on account of the failures of the Hilary Clinton campaign who ignored the states they were traditionally strong in and the Democrats just could not mobilise the voter base who could have titled the balance in their favour.

The challenge will be how to take an electorate who are increasingly apathetic towards the 2020 election to go out an vote? The choice is Trumps dramatic but untrue characterisations versus the Biden camps search of a meaningful message. Trumps assurance is his base, some of whom may have wavered but the question remains if he has marshalled in enough to replace those he lost. Yet it is clear his base also envisions cannot get him elected. In 2016 there was a large blue collar work force who were disgruntled with Hilary Clinton strongly enough to swing to the Trump camp. Biden and his team have to focus on these key segments in addition to the large number of people who did not vote in 2016.

To unbundle Trump is more a matter of focus on his content of his failures rather than a generic denunciation of the man. As we saw in 2016 some of the worst gaffes and revelations (the Hollywood tape, Stormy Daniels etc) did not faze him or his base. Unlike the previous election this time his character flaws can be pitched against his policy failures and this should be the focus of any challenge to Donald Trump.

His Presidency has left a litany of lies, and behavioural flaws most if not all of which have effected policy.  The unbundling of Trump is therefore a unique journey into the mind of a man who can only evoke two emotions; you can either love him or hate him, but ignoring him is no more possible.

Trumpism is to embrace the lies.

There is a plethora lies that can be attributed to Donald Trump, to he point he is labelled as a serial liar. Through this summer he has averaged at over 250 lies a month! What is amazing is that Trump continues to utter his lies over and over based on the dictum that if you utter a lie often enough people will believe it to be the truth. This certainly was the case with his accusation that President Obama was not born in the United States, which some of his followers still believe to be the truth. 

When faced with the gravest threats to US society in the shape of the COVID-19 pandemic Trump continued to lie about the gravity of the crisis and the measures he was taking. Sadly as US citizens died each day at an alarming rate President Trump claimed US was a leading example of fighting the pandemic, so much so that claiming the effects of the virus in the US were minor. At one point he was touting untested remedies for the COVID-19 and consistently denying there was a crisis. It was a clear case of the liar believing his version of reality and anyone who did not buy into that reality was enemy.

Politicians, including Presidents, are prone to stretch the truth, but Donald Trump does not bend the truth he simply creates his own version of the truth through a web of lies. One wonders when his wife, Melania, at the RNC meeting stated that people expect the President to tell the truth was it a tongue in cheek reference to her own husband.

Disavowing his former allies.

In Trumps White House it’s been normal to a cavalcade of officials be appointed and then to exit, some within a few weeks. The exits were either because they fell out with Trump and his inner circle or resigned in the face of criminal investigations. Upon their appointment Donald Trump has espoused lavish praise on the appointees calling them ‘very good’ people and upon their exit calling them losers. In cases where his former associates have been criminally charged Trump has been quick to state that he only knew them fleetingly and distanced himself from them. The most glaring fallout was with Steve Bannon, former chief strategist for Trumps election bit and then and advisor. During the early years of Trumps Presidency Bannon was a permanent fixture at the Oval Office and now discarded and facing a criminal charge Trump can only say that Bannon worked for his administration but he did not know him that well.

It would seem that Trump has no sense of loyalty to the people who have  served his cause. They are as good as their total subservience and submission to Trumps whims is the only barometer of acceptance by the President. Loyalty to Mr. Trump is a one way street and explains why sycophancy is the order of the day and a necessary qualification to work with Mr. Trump. This implies that the President will not necessarily get the best advice since there is a propensity on his part to surround himself with yes men. 

Ego before nation.

 Most people who have known Donald Trump attest to his over grown ego. He does not want to be ignored and resents attention to anyone but himself. This ego also shapes the self image that Trump carries to the extent that he considers himself smarter than anyone else, brighter than the best scientists, and considers his art of the deal implies he can negotiate with anyone, including dictators in North Korea or the NATO leaders. Having an over sized ego is one thing but in Trumps case he holds a vindictive nature against people who may be considered better than him. This explains his benign hatred for President Obama and everything the previous administration achieved. 

The result of this egoistic trait has meant that valuable time and resources have been wasted on proving he can deal with North Korea, when the lack of results shows how his ego cannot be out before the national interest. Trumps position on climate change, Immigration, healthcare and Russia show how one mans ego has been the focal point of a policy that he cannot rationalise. 

Trumps Achilles heel.

In 2016 Trump came under pressure to release his tax returns to which he declared if he won the election he would do so. Four years later not only have the tax filings not been released he and his lawyers have Ben fighting the courts which have ordered their release. What is it that Trump does not want to be disclosed?

Here is a theory, and mind you only a theory. Let’s go back to 2014 and Trump is flirting with the idea of entering the Presidential race. It was no secret amongst top banks that Trump was a risky client and since his earlier bankruptcies top western banks avoided lending to the Trump group. The exception was Duetsche Bank who at one point had an exposure of $2 billion to Trump companies. In addition there were a number of syndicated loans on projects where Trump was a significant minority shareholder in a project.  For instance the developer of 1290 Avenue of America, in which Trump owns 30% equity borrowed from a consortium of banks almost $1billion of which $ 211 m was provided by Bank of China. The loan was signed in November 2012. Around the time of the election in 2016 Bank of China denied it had leant the money however in 2017 its name appeared on listed of banks holding a mortgage on the said development. If it was an arms length transaction why would the bank deny it ever loaned the money? 

Now here is the theory and at the outset one must state that it is entirely conjecture. Prior to the election banks lending to Trump got nervous that a risky client would be impossible to handle if he became President. Some of these banks called in their loans. It is possible that some of these loans were bought by Russian banks and this may explain why Trump has been soft of Mr Putin and Russia. This would explain why the battle for the tax filings is so important as it would reveal the trail of the financial dealings. 

Either way whether true or not it does make an interesting plot for a financial thriller.

As the final run for the election of the next president heats up Americans have to make a moral choice not an emotional choice. One can excuse any number of Trumps failures and indiscretions but forgiving him for his failure to handle the COVID-19 pandemic is something one cannot do.  Jimmy Carter lost the election for the handling of US hostage crisis in Tehran, but today with thousands of Americans having died of the COVID-19 virus Trump not only survives but thrives on laying blame on others or flatly denying that he failed. If Trump is to be judged solely on his handling of the pandemic then he will lose the election. This is where the soul of America will be tested; is a second term for Trump worth more than 179,000 dead Americans?

Trump Economics.

Donald Trump struck me as a smart man when it came to real estate and yet not a robust thinker to avoid the bankruptcies he filed for in the past. He has taken the centre stage of Republican politics in a manner what is frightening; slaying the very ethos of good conduct and class. His appeal to the lower middle class, mostly white, Americans is indeed indisputable, backed by a plethora of fear inspiring words he extolls his audience that he only he can change things for them, and hence for Americans.

Aside from his rude appeal to his followers he has fed them some economic 'facts' which on first glance would tell the uneducated audience that the Trump makes sense. However, even to someone with half the wit to search the internet the facts become clear that either Trump is lying about the facts or he just doesn't know his economics.

There is no doubting the fact that Donald Trump scores a "F" on Foreign Policy, Diplomacy and now even Economics. Lets examine his statements:

1. Mr Trump states that China has devalued its currency to benefit its exports to the detriment of the US.

FACT: Over the past 10 years the Chinese Yuan has APPRECIATED 20% so this would have made Chinese goods more expensive. Clearly Donald Trump has fed the masses a big lie to make his case for a trade war.

2. Trump states that the annual trade deficit with China is $500 billion!

FACT: The trade deficit is about $365 billion and this further needs to be analysed. Of this deficit about $154 billion alone is in the electronics and computer industry goods which are the result of out sourcing the production to China. This, my American friends, is what makes it possible for your Apple phone and computers to be competitively priced. Sure those goods can be produced in the US too, but would cost 30-45% more expensive. You cannot expect to have a good deal at Wallmart on a product and then complain of the trade deficit.

3. Trump: Millions of jobs have moved to China from the US.

Fact: In the ten year period 2003-2013 a total of 3.2 million jobs moved to China from the US as a result of outsourcing. The purpose of outsourcing was two fold; to achieve higher efficiency and to reduce the labor cost component of the product. This is economics and happened to many industries where higher efficiency resulted in job losses. Take the example of agricultural sector within the US where more efficiency within the US alone slashed jobs as higher efficiency was achieved.

4. Trump proposes a trade tariff on China and other countries with a trade surplus.

Fact: A proposed 35-45% trade tariff on Chinese, Mexican and Asian goods will start a trade war with all the trade partners of the US. The end result will be more expensive goods for the US consumer and hence a deep recession the result of which will be the American public will suffer. The advantage of the World Trade pacts is that lower margin goods are produced aboard while America benefits from the higher value goods with better margins being produced within the US.

5. Trump: Within the term of his Presidency he will cut the budget deficit and pay back the huge debt the US government owes.

FACT: The massive government borrowing cannot be repaid in one or two terms of the presidency of ANY president. Saying that he knows how to deal with debts, Trump scares us given that his solution has been to file for Chapter 11 protection and insolvency; hardly a solution applicable to sovereign debt.

Trump scares one when it comes down to realities and while he may well inspire the disgruntled populous to believing he has the solution to building a new America, he remains grossly out of touch with the facts.

The Rise of Trump: An international perspective.

Donald Trumps rise in the domestic political platform of US politics carries its own malaise of the lack of serious intellect within the Republican Party allowing a conceited ego maniac to hijack the party. While his presence on the political scene started as a form of abstract entertainment he moulded himself, backed by his panache to be racist, sexist and conceit, to appeal to a debased anger that underlies many Americans personal thinking, he catapulted himself to be a front runner by projecting the unthinkable and the unsaid. Domestic politics aside, Donald Trump is perhaps the scariest of the candidates when it comes to visualising his potential role and impact on international politics.

Should be be taken seriously enough to ever become the President of the United States his current menu of recipes for approaching the international political scene is not only fraught with a demagogue's ideological frame of mind but more alarmingly a lack of intellect and finesse. His flippant remarks about Mexicans being rapists, Muslims being barred from entering the United States and the not so welcoming attitude towards all and sundry suggests Trump is way out of his league in understanding how world politics works. One cannot help but imagine a world with Trump as the leader of the most powerful country being a more unsafe place than ever before.

If his appeal to the average American is that he represents their anger at the loss of jobs to China and invasion of low paid foreign immigrants, he is also out of the touch with the anger that a large body of people around the world have towards America's lack of empathy for the political and social needs of the people they have tried to shape into their own mould of foreign policy. While Trump as the leader of the free world may still have some affinity to the likes of Putin's leadership of Russia (he did admire Putin's hatred for the press), Trump will certainly be out of his depth in dealing with the Chinese, Japanese and the large assembly of Muslim leaders whose people he has sought to paint in one sweeping stroke with his demagogic brush.

On a more deeper note Trump has thrived off harping on what is wrong with the world, including the American domestic scene, but has not offered any solutions on how to fix things. Whenever the debate has turned to a serious note Trump has had the nerve to bring the discussion down to raw emotion even centring on the vulgar. However, Trump's antics are not just some school boy tantrums but a carefully designed charade to keep the debate at an emotional pitch, a almost vulgar disdain for the serious question, the serious answer or indeed an agenda that begs anything more than a rhetorical profanity for what this man can end up projecting.

If ever elected as the President, Trump will have the power to take military action, and given his bullying style could well even pressure Congress into creating a world order where the search of peace will be replaced by a search to get even. Sadly as much of his anger on the domestic front is misplaced, the same might well be true of his vision of world politics, leading us to foresee a World According to Trump where the dictum of 'shoot first question later' might well be the order of political action.

Trump die hard supporters will argue that he will mature and mould himself into being a leader of the world and while projecting a strong America will also forge a more effective leadership on the world map. This might well happen, especially if he leaves world politics to a competent Secretary of State, however given his ego this is highly unlikely. One can only wonder in fear of how he will approach the thorny issues of Middle East politics, or acceptance of China as an equal partner on the world scene or engage in a serious dialogue with Europeans or the Mexican and Canadian neighbours (both of whom he has not been kind to).

Political watchers can only hope that even if he wins the Republican ticket  Donald Trump may fail to raise the ante when it comes to the final stretch of the Presidential race. Indeed from an international perspective we know too well that US Presidents are not elected for their acumen of international politics but more on the basis of their domestic agenda. Let us hope people within America realise that Trump may appeal to the unsaid within American society there are still a vast silent majority who balk at his egotistical style which offers only platitudes of hate and no substance on solutions.