Imran Khan's Gambit: A defining moment of incompetence.

 A week ago the deputy speaker of the National Assembly disallowed the non confidence motion and a jubilant Imran asked for the assembly to be dissolved as it seemed he has side stepped the no confidence motion. The Supreme Court of Pakistan reversed the move and restored the assembly and today in a few hours the assembly is presumably going to vote on the future of Imran Khan. Jurists will argue whether the Supreme Court has violated the separation of powers and indeed the legal saga may well continue. Imran Khan while saying he accepts the decision of the Supreme Court has kept his cards close to his chest and whatever his next move he will no doubt rely on his supporters to continue 'the struggle' on the streets. 

While I have always admired and believed in Imran's honesty and patriotism his political views have always come across as an over simplification. Prone to accept advice that suits his own view of the world creates a filter that breeds a cultish following that cannot be the recipe for good advice. The use of Article 5 as the basis for countering the no confidence motion was seriously faulted. Indeed the tone of the communication from the US diplomat was very harsh and undiplomatic, but it is not unusual for countries to express their displeasure to embassy officials. How such a communication proves that there was a conspiracy with members of the opposition in Pakistan needs substantially more evidence than what we have seen thus far. 

The Supreme Court may well be the forum to decide whether the actions of the deputy speaker were procedurally correct. Where the judges have over stepped their mandate is in directing the time and date and agenda of the first session of the restored National Assembly. This may well be the point of order on which the judgement may be challenged. The fact remains that in a democracy a no confidence motion is commonly used and it is a fact that members from the Treasury benches can and do cross over to the opposition. In Pakistan it is also the norm that from the day a new government is formed the opposition starts to plan its downfall. This is a zero sum game and indeed with Imran Khan in the opposition we are likely to see him also make every effort to dislodge the government that takes control now. 

While Imran Khan may well wield street power and will use it as best as he can, he needs to also reflect on the past few years and learn from the mistakes. As the noise for a non confidence motion was gaining momentum some three months back Imran Khan felt his hold on his own party and its allies was strong enough to thwart any attempt to remove him from office. Yes there was and is unprecedented price inflation and the economy has continued to under perform. A major impact of this is the global inflation and price instability but since the start of the PTI government they could not give any direction to the economy. 

Imran's promises of forcing the corrupt politicians to return the 'billions' they stole within a year, and to change the course of Pakistan's economy within 90 days were also election rhetoric and while some administrative reforms were made, not enough was done to change the situation on the ground. Imran suffers from the same syndrome that plagued the likes of Zulfikar Bhutto, who came to power with a promise of change, but never could transform things with good advice or break the mould of personality cult. For long the party that Bhutto formed, the PPP, remained a Bhutto family cult, and that continues to this day. The same is true of the PMLN, which is the domain of the Sharif family. Imran slipped into the same mould of surrounding himself with 'yes' men and party machinery aims to further his cult.

In this sense PTI remains a movement and not a political party where a core of political figures have a say. This is true of the other political parties too, but over three decades the likes of Sharifs and Bhuttos have realised they have to carry some of their party members with them. Imran must also understand that his own clean image is not enough to carry a nation with him. He needs to build a first class team around him and to also carry the team with him by giving them credit and praise. A criticism of Imran remains that its all about him and no one else.

For Pakistan while some will hail these developments as a victory for the Constitution but it brings with it the very people who has heavily tainted with corruption back to power. While an election may well be on the one year horizon where the decision by Pakistanis will have to be made whether they prefer incompetence (Imran's PTI) over corruption (PPP and PMLN). Neutral Pakistanis will woe the fact that in Imran Khan's government there was a chance to turn the corner with better governance and economic performance. 

The 220 million people of Pakistan can only hope that Imran Khan and his PTI will have learned an important and vital lesson and will earnestly begin to reform into a party of substance rather than resort to street power as the only option of change. The opposition government that may come to power now will at best be a patch work of  different agendas and will struggle to make any difference. To capitalise on this Imran himself will have to do some soul searching and start with a change in his style of leadership. Pakistan politics needs to mature from rhetoric to substance and this implies changes in not only the style of leadership but also the faces that come forward. 

Letter to Imran Khan.

Dear Imran,


In the next few days, even in the face of accusations of poll rigging, you will be installed as the Prime Minister of Pakistan. If your 22 years in politics thus far was a difficult journey, the years ahead as head of the government will test you in ways beyond one's imagination. Your character as a human being will be put to test, and your values and morality will be challenged and more importantly you will learn that some situations will need an out of box thinking and a resolve that makes the difference between leadership and failure.

You will be surrounded by sycophants, people who will feed your ego and while the small favor for someone may seem small it will be the mark of your government; will you bend the rules or break them? While we as families go back a generation or more, my few meetings with you left some impressions which need to be shared today. I admire your resolve and your honesty in financial matters, however, what I have always felt is that their is a self centered aura around you, which is not uncommon with famous people. This results in the use of the "I" more than the "We", the team then seems a means to the goals you have for yourself rather than the team. Successful leaders rarely use the world "I" and this might be a small but important change forward.

On the broader front I ask you to reader Qaid i Azam Mohammed Ali Jinnah's speech of Aug 11, 1947. You will notice the whole speech not once mentions the world Islam, but it talks of the guiding principles of governance that our founder wanted for the country. I recall you once saying to me that "Pakistani Muslims have an identity crisis". Yes they do because we are Arabizing society, we are using the words Muslim and Islam more often than is necessary as if we have to remind ourselves who we are. The problem with our country is that we have misused our religion to the extent that we have created differences amongst ourselves and perhaps you are the only leader today who can fix this!

I would like to see a more tolerant Pakistan, a rule of law, a respect for freedom of the press, the upholding of the judicial process and most of all to bring all the stakeholders in the country, including the defeated opposition to a consensus that the politics of revenge must end. Your stubborn nature may stand in the way of negotiating the way forward but as much as politics is about compromise the trick is to know what you can compromise on?

I do feel the Jinnah speech of Aug 11,1947 should be something you embrace and set it as the key to governance. This will mean protecting the minorities, and to immediately put a stop to the politics of division and end to the intolerance that the Mullahs have imposed on our social structure forgetting we belong to a faith which preached tolerance.

Your biggest two challenges will be the economy and foreign policy.

The economy is crippled and even though ending corruption will slow the bleeding the patient can only return to health with a careful review of the economy and to expand the economic base with an export driven economy. Manufacturing and industry not only need power but also the rule of law and the creation of an economic environment where foreign companies will want to set up production in Pakistan. Imagine if Chinese industries set up their factories in Pakistan, nearer the ports, closer access to markets and a large work force that can be trained. This means investment in vocational skills colleges, we need more technical people in the work force and less political science degrees. Incentives over a tax breaks and ease of investment all will help. But underlying this the politics of violence will have to end for this the militants will have to find havens in other countries.

On foreign policy Pakistan's failures have resulted in Pakistan's foreign policy akin to a blind man walking in an empty corridor calling out if anyone is there to help him. Can you imagine we are a nuclear power and we are the ones asking for attention; surely it should be the other way around. It is vital that dialogue with both Afghanistan and India commence on a new footing. With Afghanistan the politics of interference by both sides has to stop and stakeholders within the military in Pakistan have to be convinced that we should not worry about the complexion of the government in Kabul and mind our own business just as Kabul must be told that influencing the militants within Pakistan is a no-go-zone. With India the history is more complex but both sides must accept that the issue of Kashmir cannot be rolled back to 1947 as too much water has flowed down the Ganges and the Indus. Kashmiri's perhaps want an independent country and it might be worth while considering that the status quo remain and Azad Kashmir be given a provincial status within Pakistan. After all India considers their part of Kashmir as one of the states of their federal structure.


Relations with the big powers will be more difficult and while cementing the already strong relationship with China should continue Pakistan must reset it relationship with the United States and Russia. Given the fractured landscape of international politics an effort to make the EU more pivotal in Pakistan's foreign policy should be considered. The most important element of foreign relations has to be improving the image of the country. This does not happen over night and will need you to ensure career diplomats re of a better calibre and the ambassadors you choose have an interest not only in just meeting their own kith and kin but also developing solid links within the countries they are posted to.


Imran, you have been considered as a candidate upon whom the hope of the people rests. This includes the women of the country who have been down trodden and marginalized for too long. In addition you have to take cognizance of the minorities and protect them more fiercely than just speeches on their status. Your slogan of a new Pakistan implies you have to redefine many aspects within society and this may mean breaking down the perceptions of the many intolerant souls within our society.

I wish you the best and while my blog may be critical of you and your government at times, remember that this is the time not to seek praise only but to take criticism in the spirit that people like me do not want to see you fail, because your failure will be the death knell of our country.

DId Jinnah want a secular Pakistan?

We are the proverbial 'moments away' from the 2018 elections in Pakistan, an election charged with emotion, accusations, and bomb blasts. An election in a nuclear weapon state which picks up a mere footnote on the international newswires. Yet, believe it or not, its an election that will perhaps define the future for the country. Imran Khan's promise of a new Pakistan carries with it the loaded responsibility that should he fail to deliver if he wins the election, then the only definition we as a nation will edge towards is 'failed state'.

This election gave me a chance to examine the manifesto of each of the major political parties and it was in a sense sad to see that the protection of the rights of the minorities and the women of the country was mentioned almost as an after thought. While some may have looked at the Islamist parties posters and giggled at the erased faces of their women candidates it did make one wonder about how far we have steered away from the legacy of the founder of the nation, Mohammed Ali Jinnah.

General Zia Ul Haq systematically installed the tools of intolerance in a nation, after his predecessor, Mr Zulfikar Ali Bhutto embraced the Islamist demand to outlaw Ahmadi Muslims as declare them non muslims when he faced agitation by the right wing in response to election rigging. It was Gen Zia who had Mr Jinnah's August 11, 1947 speech to the Constituent Assembly expunged from the social history books and state media in the next publication of Jinnah's speeches excluded the entire speech.

Why is this speech important?

It was the definitive political and social guide that the founder of the nation laid before the lawmakers who were entrusted to frame the constitution of the State of Pakistan. He laid out some guiding principles for the lawmakers, and I would assume that they were in agreement with his vision. At the expense of making this a long winded blog, I shall quote some of these from this very special speech.

His first principle he enunciated was 'The first observation that I would like to make is this: You will no doubt agree with me that the first duty of a government is to maintain law and order, so that the life, property and religious beliefs of its subjects are fully protected by the State. '

Today we cannot debate his second guiding principle 'The second thing that occurs to me is this: One of the biggest curses from which India is suffering - I do not say that other countries are free from it, but, I think our condition is much worse - is bribery and corruption. That really is a poison. We must put that down with an iron hand and I hope that you will take adequate measures as soon as it is possible for this Assembly to do so.'

His third principle was relevant to those times and even today; 'Black-marketing is another curse. Well, I know that blackmarketeers are frequently caught and punished. Judicial sentences are passed or sometimes fines only are imposed. Now you have to tackle this monster, which today is a colossal crime against society, in our distressed conditions, when we constantly face shortage of food and other essential commodities of life. A citizen who does black-marketing commits, I think, a greater crime than the biggest and most grievous of crimes. '

Surely even today many in Pakistan will recognize his fourth guiding principle; 'The next thing that strikes me is this: Here again it is a legacy which has been passed on to us. Along with many other things, good and bad, has arrived this great evil, the evil of nepotism and jobbery. I want to make it quite clear that I shall never tolerate any kind of jobbery, nepotism or any any influence directly of indirectly brought to bear upon me. Whenever I will find that such a practice is in vogue or is continuing anywhere, low or high, I shall certainly not countenance it.'

His final point was about the minorities and the role of the state in defining the relationship between the different segments in society. I must quote the entire section for it to have a contextual sense. 

'I know there are people who do not quite agree with the division of India and the partition of the Punjab and Bengal. Much has been said against it, but now that it has been accepted, it is the duty of everyone of us to loyally abide by it and honourably act according to the agreement which is now final and binding on all. But you must remember, as I have said, that this mighty revolution that has taken place is unprecedented. One can quite understand the feeling that exists between the two communities wherever one community is in majority and the other is in minority. But the question is, whether it was possible or practicable to act otherwise than what has been done, A division had to take place. On both sides, in Hindustan and Pakistan, there are sections of people who may not agree with it, who may not like it, but in my judgement there was no other solution and I am sure future history will record is verdict in favour of it. And what is more, it will be proved by actual experience as we go on that was the only solution of India's constitutional problem. Any idea of a united India could never have worked and in my judgement it would have led us to terrific disaster. Maybe that view is correct; maybe it is not; that remains to be seen. All the same, in this division it was impossible to avoid the question of minorities being in one Dominion or the other. Now that was unavoidable. There is no other solution. Now what shall we do? Now, if we want to make this great State of Pakistan happy and prosperous, we should wholly and solely concentrate on the well-being of the people, and especially of the masses and the poor. If you will work in co-operation, forgetting the past, burying the hatchet, you are bound to succeed. If you change your past and work together in a spirit that everyone of you, no matter to what community he belongs, no matter what relations he had with you in the past, no matter what is his colour, caste or creed, is first, second and last a citizen of this State with equal rights, privileges, and obligations, there will be on end to the progress you will make.

I cannot emphasize it too much. We should begin to work in that spirit and in course of time all these angularities of the majority and minority communities, the Hindu community and the Muslim community, because even as regards Muslims you have Pathans, Punjabis, Shias, Sunnis and so on, and among the Hindus you have Brahmins, Vashnavas, Khatris, also Bengalis, Madrasis and so on, will vanish. Indeed if you ask me, this has been the biggest hindrance in the way of India to attain the freedom and independence and but for this we would have been free people long long ago. No power can hold another nation, and specially a nation of 400 million souls in subjection; nobody could have conquered you, and even if it had happened, nobody could have continued its hold on you for any length of time, but for this. Therefore, we must learn a lesson from this. You are free; you are free to go to your temples, you are free to go to your mosques or to any other place or worship in this State of Pakistan. You may belong to any religion or caste or creed that has nothing to do with the business of the State. As you know, history shows that in England, conditions, some time ago, were much worse than those prevailing in India today. The Roman Catholics and the Protestants persecuted each other. Even now there are some States in existence where there are discriminations made and bars imposed against a particular class. Thank God, we are not starting in those days. We are starting in the days where there is no discrimination, no distinction between one community and another, no discrimination between one caste or creed and another. We are starting with this fundamental principle that we are all citizens and equal citizens of one State. The people of England in course of time had to face the realities of the situation and had to discharge the responsibilities and burdens placed upon them by the government of their country and they went through that fire step by step. Today, you might say with justice that Roman Catholics and Protestants do not exist; what exists now is that every man is a citizen, an equal citizen of Great Britain and they are all members of the Nation.

Now I think we should keep that in front of us as our ideal and you will find that in course of time Hindus would cease to be Hindus and Muslims would cease to be Muslims, not in the religious sense, because that is the personal faith of each individual, but in the political sense as citizens of the State.'

It is worth noting in the entire speech he never once used the word Islam. For him it was a homeland for the Muslims of India, but more than that it was also a homeland for the minorities and even all the sects of Muslims. Without using the word 'secular' Jinnah was defining a country that would in practice be secular. 

Today not one political leader contesting the elections has embraced these vital guiding principles of the founding father and instead fuel hatred and discord between not only the majority and the minorities but also between sects within the Muslims. In the United States over 200 years after the founding fathers framed the constitution even today reference is made to their guiding principles knowing they are the pillars of statehood. 

Lets hope the likes of Imran Khan, Shahbaz Shareef, Bilawal Bhutto, and the Mullahs of the other parties can dig out this speech of the founding father, read it, reflect on it, and measure themselves against its advice. More importantly lets hope they can be brave enough to espouse this message in a progressively intolerant Pakistan that they have allowed to be created.

Pakistan Elections: Is it the turning point for Imran Khan?

In a few days time a nation of 193 million people will go to the polls, and if predictions are to be believed we could see a major shift in the direction of Pakistani politics. Between military governments, failed democratic processes, and managed democracy the losers have always been the people of Pakistan. Almost five decades ago, in a highly charged election they were promised a 'new Pakistan'. A year later, and after a bloody civil war, they got a cut up Pakistan and the beginning of a process of elected oligarchies, which having failed ushered in military rule. Another round of return to civilian rule and then the military stepped in again. The third time we expected something better and while still promised a new Pakistan we got an elected government ousted from power by the Supreme Court, its leaders in jail for corruption and yet again another election.

This election promises to be different because of a younger voter base and perhaps a more charged political process. Imran Khan, if the pundits are to be believed, might just be the man to win enough seats for his PTI to form a government. Imran Khan too promises a 'Naia' (new) Pakistan, where he believes democratic process, inclusive policies, rule of law and a crack down on corruption will be the hallmarks of his government. Some believe he holds the inside track because the military see in him a better option than the others.

Yet Imran Khan has patched together alliances with some political figures of other parties and welcomed them into his ranks which makes one wonder how much horse trading will be needed by him to secure victory and if so will it erode his populist agenda for a new Pakistan. To the liberal forward thinking Muslims his flirtations with the ultra conservative and even militant elements of the right wing Muslim groups is troublesome; something the military might not also take much favor with. To the nationalist amongst us his stance of not allowing drone strikes by foreign powers will ring positive to our ears. To the pragmatist the single most important thought will be if he can walk the talk.

I believe what Imran Khan has going for him in large measure is the fact that in financial matters he is considered basically honest. This is singularly the most important thing for many in Pakistan where they hear of the billions that has been stolen from the country. Whether Imran Khan can fight corruption and maintain the rule of law and courts side by side is to be seen. Some of his statements regarding opponents gives one the uneasy feeling that some old scores might be picked at the cost of a judicial process.


At  the end of the day if Imran Khan wins his ability to deliver will depend on the quality of the team he puts together. While at times he has shown, at least with his hospital project, that he can do that, one has to wonder if at the national stage he can find the right people. With a tendency to put himself in the limelight more as a focal point he will have to learn to be humble and bring to the front the depth of the leadership within his party and act more as the watchful eye to keep the focus on his promise for a new Pakistan.

His challenge will be an economy that is riddled with inefficiencies and corruption and to nourish the key drivers for economic performance. Over hauling a government machine which served its own ends rather than the people and to find a balance with the military that ensures it from keeping away from the political process will be an enormous challenge for the Khan. On the foreign relations side the task of not only improving the image of the country but also to find a cohesive direction to a foreign policy which for the past few decades has done nothing other than to be reactive.

At a societal level perhaps Imran Khan could be the only leader who can bring about a national consensus on the question of minorities within the country. A country where the divisions along religious and sectarian lines have reached dangerous proportions. We need someone to stop the rifts between the Sunni and the Shia, between the Muslims and the non Muslims and we need to emphasize and speak out against the wanton violence that some of the extremist elements within the country have brought to the streets of Pakistan.

If this is the Naia (new) Pakistan that can emerge from these elections and Imran Khan feels he has the best chance to deliver it then there cannot be a mincing of words on this matter. Not only a respect for the institutions of democracy has to be nourished but in many cases the rebuilding of these institutions has to take place. An investment into education and the eradication of intolerant views through education has to start. The role of women and their protection has to be at the forefront of this New Pakistan. The list is exhaustive as indeed is the task. But we must also realize that if like the promise of almost 50 years ago this descends into an oligarchy of political favoritism and misguided politics then the country will descend into a state of disrepair from which many decades of pain will emerge.

Sher View: Pakistan: a fragile moment.

After a jet lagged appearance on Riz Khan's talk show on Al Jazeera International, I have had time to reflect a little more deeply on the situation in my country. To say these are precarious times would be an understatement; Pakistan is perhaps at its most fragile moment since its independence in 1947. It is blatantly clear that self interest, which has been the hall mark of most of the nations leaders, be they in uniform or not, has begun to unfold in a sadistic soup of side deals, broken promises, exiles and finally the show of the power of the gun muzzle through 'emergency powers'. 160 million souls have now been again imprisoned behind the shadow of a political intent that is clearly only serving the handful who have decided to determine what is best for the country.

Sadly this attitude and apathy is not confined to Pakistanis only; the United States and others have taken the position of a rhetorical slap on the hand of a general who has gone mad, while hoping their political contriving with just one political leader might be the solution. In the backdrop of this the country's former Chief Justice, with perhaps the record of being the only Chief of an apex court to be dismissed twice in succession, has forgotten his oath to uphold law and taken to supporting a political rather than a legal position.

As emails pour in from observers and friends from abroad wondering why Pakistan is trying to commit political suicide there is a lack of solutions. As the general promises elections one can only wonder if these elections, if and when they are held, can mean anything with an election commission that will partial or indeed with only one political party being a serious contender. It is all the more baffling to note that in the middle of this turmoil an extremist insurgency continues in Waziristan and Swat where militant Islamists have raid their own flags, torn down Pakistan's flag and essentially declared their own Emirate. If the general wanted to combat extremism there is no evidence that he has moved against those elements who clearly have committed treasonable acts and even more surprisingly the former Chief Justice has not felt it worthy to condemn what is clearly an act of treason.

Interestingly the view that some might feel, in the West, that between General Musharaf and Benazir Bhutto there is perhaps a possibility to curb 'terrorism'. In the first place home grown militancy is not linked to Al Qadea, but more a knee jerk reaction to Musharraf's failure to deal with the causes of the resentment within the masses. There is no doubt in my mind that unless a broad based return to a truly democratic system does not occur the political and social will to deal with militancy will not emerge. It is clear that even the religious political parties do not want militancy like that in Waziristan but this is something that has not been understood by General Musharraf and his minders.

It would seem that as this political stalemate continues, even though a placating promise of an election might be some ray of hope, the reality is these are all truncated solutions. There is not enough people power on the streets to topple the general and perhaps only Imran Khan, cricketer turn politician understands that unless the students do not take to the streets the only hope is that the generals comrades in uniform either convince him to back down or take the measures to be a true obundsman for the country and bring some change to the system. Yet will the politicians promise in return not to go back to corruption and nepotism which seems to have been the hallmark of each civilian government. This is, as I said, a fragile moment and its time for Pakistanis to think of the country and not themselves.