Imran Khan and the Political Scene in Pakistan

 When Imran Khan's government was ousted in a vote of non confidence in April 2022 one thing was clear that a multitude of political and vested interests aligned to thwart any political comeback. While the non confidence vote in itself was by the book there was little doubt that there was a good deal of 'nudging' by various interest sections to ensure the outcome was his ouster. To say what followed was to be a test of Imran Khan's political acumen is an understatement. Now a year an half later the highly popular Khan is incarcerated in prison under a 3 year jail term, his party has been ploughed through leaving a shell which he cannot really rebuild while inside. Yet Imran's political journey is a repeat of Pakistan's sad political journey where every elected Prime Minister since 1970 has been jailed at least once. 

In a country where opposition to the government is immediately equated with being a traitor to the country it is not surprising that patriots in the true sense are hard to recognise and much less appreciate. There is also little denying that every leading political figure has, at some time or the other, had the benevolent hand of the establishment guiding their destiny. This was true to Nawaz Sharif, Benazir Bhutto, and even Imran Khan, while one may argue as to the extent of the support and guidance that each may have received. 

There was a significant difference in the emergence of Imran Khan as a political leader because it was achieved on the back of massive political following amongst the youth of the country. While his three plus years in office were not spectacular they were not a failure either. It would seem that while his PTI government was planning for a long stay at the wicket and planning accordingly the reality was that with a coalition government the innings could not be guaranteed to be a long one. Imran's style of leadership, largely focused around his own office and persona, did not create the infrastructure of a true political party. This is much like his rival PMLN and PPP which remain movements collected around a couple of individuals. Both rival parties have never had qualms about making special deals to either remain in power or to regain power. Khan and his PTI not only lack the wheeling and dealing experience of the other two but also didn't use its time in office to galvanise the small political pressure groups into their mantra. 

Imran and his PTI forged a message of a 'Naya (New) Pakistan' where by definition they were going to change the way things happen in Pakistan. Even proclaiming such a noble objective is likely to rile up vested interests in the country who have created, nourished and benefited from the set up that has been shaped over 75 years since Independence. In hindsight Imran chose a platform where he created more enemies that he could handle and prudence may have suggested a step by step approach to remedy the system. But given his age and the lack of political depth in his party Imran Khan was in a hurry to change things, and being in a hurry one is likely to make mistakes. 

Having been removed from office Imran Khan seemed to feel he can, single handedly, rewrite the political narrative in the country and 'force' a perfect storm where the government of the PDM (an alliance of 13 parties) would be forced to call elections. While in Jan 2022 the PTI government's popularity was waning on the back of inflation and weakening currency, his ouster surged his popularity to an unprecedented level. Ironically this surge in public following was perhaps the single most deciding factor for Imran's opponents to attempt to derail his political journey.

The events of the past 18 months are not a good reflection on Imran Khan's political acumen. In similar measure it has also be a unique insight into how the 'state' can treat its political opponents. Human rights violations, disappearance of journalists, and a crack down on political dissent is the order of the day. Nearly 200 criminal cases have been filed against Imran Khan, all of which cannot be substantive, with the aim of bogging him and his supporter down into a legal quick sand long enough to dismember his political party. 

One is often asked if Imran Khan could have handled things differently. Without the benefit of being in the driving seat one can only make suppositions, and they may well be off the mark in such an analysis. After losing the majority in the parliament Imran chose to boycott the National Assembly, perhaps a move that back fired as his opponents mustered a sham opposition group and continued about their business. In cricketing terms Imran Khan forgot that you cannot win a match by sitting in the stadium. Even when the umpires are not neutral, and the pitch is doctored against you, your team still has to play the game. (After all he did that against India in the series there). 

Thereafter the strategy seemed to be to appeal to the public and political rallies, and long marches became the order of the day. The show of force was at times impressive but it created two issues. The lack of immediate gains from these rallies, and the possibility of steam running out of the political fervour all suggested this was not going to be a quick resolution on the back of street power. The government of the 13 did what they do best, locked down on the media blanking out coverage of Khan and his political message. Imran felt that the peoples support was his biggest weapon, and to a large extent he is not wrong. However he did not use this support to capitalise in any negotiations he could have had with his opponents and the establishment. On the contrary there were no substantive negotiations and till this day each side blames the other for the absence of a dialogue. 

While national media was ordered to blank out Imran Khan the one thing they could not control was the social media. Undoubtedly the passionate support for Khan in the social media grew and continues till today. It perhaps remains the single most focused voice that emerges in favour of Imran Khan. However, as much as social media is an amazing tool it is also something that is not entirely understood and therefore very difficult, if not impossible, to control. So much so that PTI position holders also got carried away in their messaging as an aggressive and at times vile campaign emerged against anyone or any section of society that did not embrace the PTI narrative. After the first short period of arrest of Imran Khan on  May 9 2023, it was no surprise that the intended peaceful protests turned violent. It is unlikely that such violence, which the nation had seen many times before in its history, was personally directed by Imran Khan, but clearly this is one of the many cases he will have to face. 

It is evident that there is a concerted effort to not only discredit Imran Khan but also to disfranchise him from politics altogether. Notwithstanding the legal challenges that he faces, Khan's role in a political sense will not simply fade away. His political survival will not only depend upon the powers that be but also on how he plays his cards in the coming months. If elections are held between November and February next year then as things stand Imran may well not be in the race for office. However PTI, if organised fast enough, could fight the election on the back of Khan's popularity and have a suitable enough showing in a high turn out election to make them a factor in the future of Pakistan politics. On the other hand a low turn out election which are prone to riggings, may result in PTI being marginalised. 

Some may argue that Imran Khan has no need to reinvent himself in a political sense, and this may well be true. However, he will need to assess not only his tactics and strategy but also focus again on the organisation of his party. Empowered by the support of the younger generation he must focus on his next generation of party leadership and build the party from the bottom up. The test will be whether he will need 'electables' who are assured election victory due to caste, creed or local politics. If the traction he has gained in the past 18 months amongst the populous can be maintained then his direct or indirect presence on the political scene cannot be set aside. Unlike the Sharif family where inspite of Nawaz Sharif being disqualified and sentenced to jail there is a plethora of family members to continue their political presence, Imran does not have the same situation. This implies that Imran has to gravitate to the young wing of his party who had not abandoned him irrespective of the pressure on them to do so. 

Imran Khan will have, nevertheless, rethink his approach in a political comeback he is likely to make. The steps he would have to consider would broadly encompass the following:

• Rebuild the party at the grass root level.
• Bring in a new empowered leadership.
• Create a non partisan 'think tank' to plan key economic, political, legal and social reforms.
• Reset his relationship with the military establishment.
•  Recognise that in Pakistan large scale change can only be done in phases.
• Build a core of highly professional individuals who would be the essence of their governance should they win the election.
• Decentralise power from himself and empower a new cadre of leadership.

Perhaps the list can be a mile long but it is essential for Pakistan that the current polarisation is not conducive to the country. Each segment, including Imran Khan, has to play their part in bringing sanity to the system. One thing is clear that things cannot continue in the manner they have been conducted over the past seven decades. Clearly the one thing that Khan's presence has done, rightly or wrongly, given a voice to the youth who were unheard in the past. His party should not see them as a tool for electoral victory but empower them to be a positive influence in the country. 

On the flip side it would be naive to think that popular political leaders can be simply dissolved into the heap of history. One may argue that some of Khan's image may well be tarnished. While Imran's popularity is perhaps his best insurance to prevent the worst, it is also the biggest threat he poses to his opponents. Imran's maturity is what is on test as to how these assets are used to not only tone down the political conflict but to project that politics in Pakistan does not need to be a zero sum game.