Based on current announcements and actions it would seem the US and its NATO allies will soon be withdrawing all their troops from Afghanistan. This will be the end, as many hope, of the long US involvement in a war in a foreign country. One may question what did the US achieve in these two decades other than dislodging Osama bin Laden and the removal of the Taliban regime. Back in 2001 when the US invaded Afghanistan, it was safely assumed that majority of Afghans welcome the removal of the Taliban regime.
The adoption of a new Constitution in 2004 and general elections accompanied with economic and social reforms were seen by many as heralding a new era of peace and well being. Today as the US and NATO troops pack up to leave Afghanistan's future is more uncertain then ever. The fact that after the invasion of the country in 2001 the Taliban were never really militarily defeated negates the very purpose of the invasion and does not abode well for the future. In fact in most of the 38 provinces of Afghanistan, where the Taliban had major influence in the rural areas of the country, a war of attrition by the Taliban continues with occasional bomb attacks on both civilian and military targets. The inability of the Afghan government and its Western Allies to bring peace and security to the Afghan populace highlights the incompetence of the current government and the failure of the policies of its Allies. Added to the incompetence is the large scale corruption within the government which is not only rampant but also blatantly visible to the common Afghan.
The much touted economic recovery of the country and the rebuilding of government institutions including the armed forces was indeed a failure. These efforts by the US and its allies to help the Afghan government stand on its feet were an exercise prone to massive corruption. One report suggested that every single contract had an element of either bribery embedded in it or the whole contract award was fixed. This malaise of corruption effected the military too where it has been common to hear of theft of fuel, equipment and ammunition accompanied by a desertion rate in excess of 25%.
While the Taliban have been engaging in a dialogue of sorts with the various stakeholders and suggesting a working arrangement with the current Afghan government, the reality is that once the Western forces are out of the country all bets will be off. Within the Taliban there are various factions and while the moderate ones have been speaking in reassuring tones, the more militant sections of the Taliban are unlikely to be reined in with ease. Securing the key assets after the departure of Western forces is the first priority and suggests that securing the Kabul and Bargham airports will be a major test of the new be t Afghan order.
The US has been talking of a military presence in the region close enough to intervene if necessary. Such a role is more likely to be air support to Afghan troops. However, the Taliban will be flexing their political and military strength on the ground and through the local administration in the 38 provinces where air power is of limited influence. The US has tried to engage the principal stakeholders outside Afghanistan with little success. Indeed Pakistan, especially through its historical ties with the Taliban could play a constructive role but its leadership is aware of the instability this can produce within Pakistan too. India, while not a neighbor to Afghanistan will claim its stake for political influence more so to counter Pakistan than anything else.
Sadly the idea of a peaceful transition from the present to a new scenario without Western military presence in Afghanistan is only going to work during the transition process thereafter the risks of Afghanistan spinning into a civil war are high. There is no denying that the majority of Afghans would not a return to Taliban rule but the twin problems of corruption and incompetence within the current government have eroded the will of people. A civil war will not be good for Afghanistan's neighbors and countries like Pakistan, Iran and Turkey will try to influence the various parties to avoid a civil war but the dynamics are too complex to be assured of this.
Ideally it must be the Afghans themselves who decide on the future course for their country. The Taliban are also aware that Western forces can return to the country just as easily as they left, even though one may doubt if the political will to stabilize Afghanistan will exist in Washington once all the troops are out. It is possible in the current situation China might be the country who may, directly, or indirectly through Pakistan, try and bring some element of order to Afghan society. A civil war in Afghanistan will not suit Chinese economic and political ambitions in the region and while Chinese troops in Kabul is not going to happen, it can create enough proxy power within Afghanistan to influence outcomes.
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