Kashmir: Slow painful steps towards conflict.

Recent events on the Indian side of Kashmir have suddenly propelled this half forgotten conflict between India and Pakistan back to the forefront in what is one of the most militarized regions of the world. Sadly the narrative on the situation in Kashmir is mired in propaganda and rhetoric which is all to familiar to the omniscient observer. India's insistence that all is peaceful in Jammu and Kashmir is in sharp contradiction to their own statements that there are curfews, and a virtual lockdown with no cable television, internet or phone services in the area. Pakistan on its side has been trying to step up the war of words and PM Imran Khan's recent address, while trying to draw attention to the emerging conflict between two nuclear armed countries has been seen more as a threat in India rather than a stark warning for both sides to calm things down.

In the war of words, India's voice has been the louder one, while Pakistan's media strategy has always been rather pathetic at the best of times. None of its major TV channels has even one current affairs program aired in English, preferring to use Urdu as the medium of its media voice, almost as if the information effort is only for its own people. India, on the other hand, has a number of channels where neo nationalist anchors spill out the narrative New Delhi embraces to the extent that Indians who simply question if there is peace in the Kashmir valley are suddenly painted as traitors and accused of towing the Pakistan line.

Independent sources, like the New York Times, the Guardian and others have clearly said all is not well in Jammu and Kashmir. India's media answer has been to say its time to talk about Pakistan controlled Kashmir. Few have pointed out that in Pakistan controlled Kashmir there aren't a million army men and para military forces, in Pakistan side of Kashmir there are no curfews and information blackouts, and in general the majority of Kashmiris on the Pakistan side are more concerned about Indian army presence across the border than anything else.

Aside from the jockeying for better narrative, there is a haunting possibility of armed conflict between India and Pakistan. Pakistan with 653,000 active members of its armed forces compared to India's 1.44 million active personnel would unlikely to take on the role of the aggressor for an all out war. Yet a limited war is highly likely in an environment where both sides ability to engage in a dialogue is rapidly being reduced with the current posturing that is going on. India's insistence that it is an internal affair and also agreeing with major powers that matters on Kashmir need to be discussed only in bilateral talks between India and Pakistan suggests that India will argue which ever side of that argument when its wishes.

The possibilities of conflict are embedded in the mentality of the Indian decision makers who have consistently refused to believe that there is an element of Indian Kashmiris who disagree with the Indian central government and would not hesitate to carry out militant actions against the 1 million strong Indian army in Kashmir who these people see as an occupying force. India's belief remains that they are at best miscreants aided and supported by Pakistan. Indeed in the past there have been Pakistan based militant organizations who have either directly carried out attacks or have assisted Indian Kashmiris to attack Indian forces within Indian Kashmir and even though in the past few years these organizations have been reined in, India's argument that all anti Indian acts in Kashmir are not home grown continues.

Herein lie the seeds of a possible conflict between Indian and Pakistan. The current curfew and lockdown in Jammu and Kashmir will stretch into the coming winter months. While there may be pockets where such measures will be relaxed and total return to normalcy will not happen till the winter. With the winter months the harsh climate does make it more difficult for protests and rallies to be organized. As the frustration of Indian Kashmiri's will grow, given that over 2000 have already been arrested in the past two weeks, the more militant elements within Indian Kashmir will realize that violence then is the only language of the unheard.

The result of any violence against Indian forces will immediately result in Delhi blaming Pakistan for such violence. What steps India would then take would depend upon the size and scale of the attack itself, but one thing is clear without bilateral channels of communication open the chances are India would more likely retaliate more to prove to its own people that it has evidence of Pakistan's involvement and hence has done a 'surgical strike'. One has to commend the Indian media machine on the spin they can make out; like insisting till even today that a Pakistan F16 was shot down in the February 2019 air action between the two countries (when US officials have clearly said they have accounted for all of Pakistan's F16 inventory).

Pakistan will retaliate to any 'surgical strike' that is done on its soil, all the more reason now with the way the Kashmir situation has been propelled into the forefront no government in Islamabad can remain quiet to any military strike. Will there be an all out war?

While some would argue that India would like an all out war and it has the numerical numbers to overwhelm Pakistan forces in a classical military conflict. Pakistan on the other hand would prefer a limited conflict, more contained to air skirmishes, with the usual shelling across the border. It cannot take on the role of the aggressor and it is something its military brass know well. However, India's main fear has been that Pakistan's possession of tactical nuclear weapons (where they are way ahead of India) and any large scale attack on Pakistan would result in the use of these weapons. (perhaps this is what Imran Khan was hinting at in his recent speech). India has developed what it calls its 'Cold Start' strategy which aims to neutralize these tactical nuclear weapons within days of the start of a conflict. However, such a strategy assumes a total air superiority over Pakistan, somewhat to the extent that the Coalition forces had over Iraq during the two Gulf wars. India simply does not possess such a superiority in the air at the moment.

Another scenario could well develop from the situation in Kashmir. Assume there are no attacks by Indian Kashmiri militants on Indian forces, but instead there are mass street protests and a public anger over India's moves on Jammu and Kashmir. This is a situation that is more difficult for India to face. It can blame Pakistan for a dozen militant Kashmiri's attacking Indian forces, but it cannot blame Pakistan it say 200,000 people come out on the streets of Srinagar. Such such protests break out and are able to sustain the momentum, as we have seen in many countries in the past, then it presents and awkward situation for the Modi government. In such a situation one cannot rule out a military adventure by the Indian armed forces with the sole aim of distracting the attention from such protests within Jammu and Kashmir.

For the moment one can only hope that some sense of sanity prevails and armed conflict is not an option. In a sense this means that if Pakistan wishes to get some traction to get world powers to focus on the situation then they need to get their public relations act together fast. The narrative that needs to come out more from Islamabad needs to more direct and less jingoistic. Side by side it must open the dialogue with India to avert any armed conflict, and this projection of leaning towards peace is a posture that would work best in the current environment. However, we all know that one cannot clap with only one hand, (unless once is slapping the other person) and it would seem that till the curfews and clamp down in Indian Kashmir is not lifted the situation will remain tense between India and Pakistan.