India's Kashmir Move.

Indian Prime Ministers move to change the status of Indian Kashmir was no surprise. He prodded and poked on the subject through the recent elections, each prod, each poke, stoking the fires of Hindu nationalist sentiment. The abrogation of Art 370 of the Indian constitution, which gave special status of Kashmir as a semi autonomous region, and, more importantly, ensured that Hindus would not flood the disputed state to claim a majority in Kashmir, protected the Kashmir's from allowing resettlement of Hindus from elsewhere in India, raises some important issues. The impact within India and India's handling of a delicate matter concerning Kashmir will resonate across the whole of India. Further the move brings into question the argument where Mr Modi is embracing a nationalist Hindu agenda, which sits at the core of the BJP philosophy, or can the secular India still speak for whole of India. Finally there is the more volatile situation with Pakistan, who control part of Kashmir and have seen the resolution of the Kashmir issue as fundamental to better ties with India.


While supporters of PM Modi tout the fact that both houses of the Indian parliament overwhelmingly voted to remove the autonomous status of Kashmir, the fact remains that the vote was accompanied by a virtual lock down in Kashmir itself. With internet, mobile phone services suspended and selective curfews and arrests of key Muslim political figures within Kashmir  clearly suggests that barring the Hindu nationalists, like the RSS, (Modi himself having risen through their ranks) the majority Muslims within Kashmir have not welcomed the decision with open arms.

Herein lies the problem because with a huge military presence within Kashmir the language of street protest may not be possible. Various international human rights organizations have been warning in the past few years that Indian military and police behavior in Indian Kashmir has been brutal and inhumane. With the avenue of street protests closed to the people of Kashmir the more likely form of protest will be selective arson attacks on Indian forces within Kashmir. This plays into the hands of  the Muslim Kashmiris who have always argued that Indian forces in Kashmir must be expelled from Kashmir and forward their agenda of a free Kashmir.

One would therefore argue that should attacks on Indian forces increase, which given this decision by the Modi government will happen, India will be quick to blame Pakistan for sponsoring those attacks and cross border tensions between India and Pakistan will increase. Realistically I do not think given the way things are moving in Indian Kashmir the militants do not need encouragement from Pakistan or anyone to carry out their attacks. I would even doubt that with the abolition of Kashmir's autonomous status even the Pakistanis can persuade the militants to show restraint. In that sense the Modi government has created the conditions for more turmoil within Indian Kashmir rather than solve anything.

On a broader front a majority of the leadership of the ruling BJP embrace the RSS ideology of a Hindustan (India) for Hindus. To them Indian Kashmir was the only Indian state where there is a non Hindu majority and thus a non Hindu (Muslim) local government. This was for decades unacceptable to the RSS who argue that the protection to Indian Kashmiris (mostly Muslims) under Article 370 was always seen as a temporary solution which Mr Nehru had agreed to in the early 1950's to appease the pro Indian Muslims in Kashmir and to take the sting out of the United Nations insistence of a plebiscite in all of Kashmir (both Indian and Pakistani) to allow the people to determine their own fate.

Indeed for decades the UN stalemate has continued and even as the vote on abrogating Artile 370 was taking place let us not forget that in Jammu and Kashmir (Indian Kashmir) there were and are United Nations observers monitoring the situation. If the region was not a disputed territory why then have the UN presence? PM Modi basically has thrown out 70 years of UN resolutions and bilateral agreements with Pakistan with this move. The voices in India who want the slogan of India for Hindus may call Modi bold and brave, those who see the slow death of India's secular democracy and want regional peace would call Modi's move foolish and idiotic.

There is no doubt after this move settlements will crop up in Indian Kashmir for the settlement of Hindus, (much like Israel did with Palestinian lands) and with each settlement, each new home the Kashmiris will be driven into a corner. Modi's bet, along with the RSS is that the demographic balance should be titled to the BJP Hindu majority quickly enough to make an impact in the next general elections. However, as the Muslim Kashmiris get driven into a corner the actions will become more violent and desperate. Overall Indian Kashmir will move from having been an autonomous state to an Indian occupied state and herein lies the seeds for instability within the region.

India's only option then will be to blame Pakistan and the tit for tat limited military activity between India and Pakistan will  increase. While there seem to be enough sensible people to avoid an all out conflict given both have nuclear weapons, be assured that limited battles will be the order of the day.

India's bigger problem could well be that Indian Muslims, who are about 172 million (15% of the population) may  become the recruiting ground for the more militant organizations like the Taliban and perhaps new home grown movements. There is not doubt that during the Modi government hate crimes against Muslims have been increasing and given the Kashmir move the reaction from militant groups will become more acute and sharper. Indeed these groups could well be supported from overseas but in essence this is a risk that India must be aware of.

Modi government has had a reasonably good public relations presence on the world scene to not be criticized too severely what it will call and 'internal matter'. Muslim governments have not been briefed enough by say Pakistan and the Kashmiris enough to know the implications of this move, which essentially does to the Kashmiris what the Israelis did to the Palestinians. Therefore one cannot be certain of how most of the Muslim countries will react to this move, which most likely will be muted criticism at best.


In conclusion it would seem that while the move of the Modi government is not reversible, more for political reasons, it does present itself as the single more defining moment of modern India. Does this end the secular nature of India? Does this imply that Modi will appease the nationalist Hindu caucus irrespective of the consequences to India and the region? Does the Modi government understand that changing the status of Indian Kashmir creates the seeds for more violence and unrest?