Indian Elections: Divisions being put to test.

India is undoubtedly the worlds largest democracy with over 900 million going to the polls this election. So gigantic is the task that voting spans seven phases and a six week period, all in the backdrop of electioneering that continues till the last vote is dropped in the ballot box. This election, however, pitches not only the traditional rivals; Modi's BJP against Rahul Gandhi's Congress, but also, almost in keeping with elections the world over since Mr Trumps election, pitting divergences like never before. Modi's rallying point has been a heightened appeal towards a 'New India' based on a nationalist appeal, and playing the terrorism card to the extent that promising an end to the special status if Indian Kashmir. Gandhi's party appeals to the broader base of Indian secular integration and reform that having been its hallmarks.

In a country so large and diverse polling would be either ridiculously flawed or totally biased to rely upon to make any predictions. Modi's use of and support from a smattering of Indian TV channels and personalities is reminiscent of a nation almost ready to go to war. The recent confrontation with Pakistan where India lost one jet fighter and claiming to have shot down an Pakistani F 16 seems to initially have been the jingoism that Modi needed. This seems to have backfired badly as Imran Khan, the Pakistani PM, quickly returned the down pilot and then waited for the Indian media spin to continue till evidence came from none other that the US itself that Pakistan did not lose a F 16.

Indeed Modi's pitch has been that if you hate Modi then you hate India! A message that may have an appeal within the hard core of the BJP ranks but in a diverse country like India where many of the states and people from different segments feel disfranchised by the Modi camp it might be a slogan that would not hold voter attention. Additionally almost 80 million new, and mostly young, voters have been added to the list. These voters may well hold the card to some main polling battles.

Living in UAE one has a large number of Indian friends and their feedback, while not indicative of 900 million people who vote, does give an insight into the issues. A well placed Muslim engineer from Hyderabad in India made an interesting comment that the Muslim voters along with the voters in the Southern States could well tilt the balance away from Modi. Then he added yet to the Muslims it will make little difference because they will continue to me marginal and treated accordingly. A couple of workers from Kerala who I often bump into were adamant that Modi was himself causing these 'terror' attacks and is more corrupt than all of the others put together.

Modi does have one thing going for him. A robust social media presence, (which matters with young voters) and the ability to deflect controversy with ease. To him the spin matters, and rest is just noise. Rahul Gandhi and the Congress will certainly be tested and for the progressive Indians the Congress has always been a better bet. Yet they have to climb the proverbial mountain since in 2014 they won only 44 seats, down from 206 in the 2009 election. While alliances will help the Congress this perhaps will be its biggest test to turn around its fortunes.

The fact in the recent regional elections the BJP lost some key states, which in fact had been instrumental in helping BJP win the 2014 election, will be a matter of concern to Modi and co. In states like Tamil Nadu Modi has struggled, especially with the younger voters. Modi has been playing the patriotism card over the recent spate with Pakistan, and even though it is evident that the Indian Air Force did not fair well, his spin doctors continue to deny that and hail Modi as patriot who you favor and if you don't then you are anti Indian.

None of this implies that Modi and the BJP would not have a decent showing in the elections, but it might well be so that they will not have a simple majority on their own to form a government. If Congress and its potential allies can have a good enough showing then forming a coalition government is open to either camp.

Beyond electioneering what I find disturbing is this nationalist born again fervor which can be a dangerous card to play. Anyone who talks of moderation and peace in regional affairs is dubbed a 'peacenik' and 'anti Indian'. Modi and co are playing out a message of scare mongering which may well help them in the short term but in a country where emotions run high and a reconciliation towards a strong central government in New Delhi is not something that the population of Tamil Nadu and other southern states have quite yet embraced. Certainly they want a united India and perhaps a strong India, but they want their voice to be a part of that message not on the fringes of Indian politics.

In terms of India's neighbors I doubt it will make any difference whether the Congress or the BJP are in power. Certainly the BJP may wish to continue its niggling with Pakistan but they may well have learned that in the recent round of exchanges Imran Khan of Pakistan seems to have outwitted the accomplished and seasoned Narendra Modi. It would be interesting if Modi went ahead and changed the status of Indian Kashmir the backlash may well be something he then cannot blame Pakistan off. Either way these elections, barring Modi's attempt to play the 'war with Pakistan' card, regional and international issues have been totally absent from the political speeches.

In sense rising unemployment, and managing an economy that has become enormous with its own challenges, and finally a need to define India's economic partnerships in a broader context are imperatives that who ever is elected will need to address.