Saturday, December 15, 2018

Can Trump be impeached?

The past week clearly was pivotal in showing the extent to which Mr Donald J Trump can lie and mislead people. His former attorney, Micheal Cohen, who once said he would take a bullet for his client, realized the bullet headed his way was really a cannon ball and ducked to become a snitch that could spell trouble for President Trump. To say he was the quarter back directing the play for the Trump empire across not only business deals but hush money and campaign funding would be an understand. While Trump will dismiss him as unimportant person in the Trump organization, the fact remains Cohen may well have spewed out more than what Robert Mueller was looking for.

While Democrats and the anti Trump camp may be rejoicing that they might just have enough to impeach the President, there is a clear matter of legal issues to consider. If President Trump lied under oath to the FBI or the Mueller investigation, then indeed impeachment is a possibility. However, it would then be important to consider what did he lie about? Knowing of the hush money payments and saying he did not while a lie, would not constitute enough of a crime to be impeached upon. However, if it is proved that he knew that some of the money that funded his campaign was illegal and undisclosed then the matter might take a more serious tone.


In a broader sense, the distinctions of lying as an impeachable offense and lying in general, raise more disturbing traits to the persona of  Mr Trump. Yes politicians lie and bend the truth all the time, every one has done it, but Trump has taken lying to not only an art form but has blatantly bended the truth to the point that perhaps he and some of his supporters, have a totally different vision of reality. Coupled with the art of deflection Trumpians tend to still not accept the man is a pathological liar of the highest order. Kelly Anne Conway, his most ardent supporter, on the Chris Cuomo interview kept on repeating that 'Trump did not direct Cohen to break the law." Fair enough he perhaps did not, but that is not the question, the question is was he present in one of the meetings where payments as hush money were discussed?

Presidents cannot be impeached for lying to the public, perhaps because politicians are expected to lie to the electorate! This is ironic in the sense that he lied his whole way through the primaries and into the White House and continues to invent facts as he sees them, and the only retribution he can face is at the ballot box. There is no mechanism to hold him accountable other than the election or within the media. What all this means is that unless the Mueller probe comes up with a smoking gun that is directly linked to President Trump himself most likely President Trump will run out his term.


However, if Mueller does not get the link directly to Trump, and this is not the focus of his investigation, but indicts Trump Jr, or others close to him then the tightly spun web of deceit into the Trump camp will begin to unravel. It is also possible Trump may be infuriated by any indictment of a family member and will simply start a serious of questionable executive orders, pardons and firings which will perhaps save his family but leave the Trump Presidency open to impeachment. An unhinged Trump is not going to be a pleasant sight for anyone. The core of the Republican party is perhaps also fed up with the way things have turned out and might not have the will to continue to support a President who has become an embarrassment to many of them.

The base of Trumps support amongst the public, however, will not have any of this. To them Trump is making America great again and that slogan itself evokes a sense of patriotism, as false as it may be, that Trump relies on the most. His survival instincts are honed into playing to mainly that segment of the American public, a segment that has become his die hard base, to whom the man's lying, questionable ethics of business and his total lack of respect for others is seen as a man who is doing the right thing in their eyes. This is the division that Trump has brought to American politics, a division that he flaunts with gusto because it is where he feels he is right and everything he and his cohorts spin off feed into the mainstream of this base.

In the real political world if Trump is faced with impeachment his base may rally with protests and noise, but in the legal sense none of it can be consequential to a possible impeachment. The merits of whether he can be impeached all go back to the Mueller probe and this is why he and his base continue to call for its shut down. The Mueller probe is not about Trump, its about simply one fact whether the Russians interfered with the US election and how? It so happens that in investigating that many aspects of the conduct of people close to Trump, (Manafort, Flynn, Cohen et al) have come up which have created different smaller, but more significant, investigations into Trump Jr meeting the Russians, campaign finances, election rule violations, and even money laundering. These are the things which could lead to a more focused finger pointing to Mr Trump himself. While in fairness nothing has been revealed thus far other than his lying about certain matters related to hush money payments, the fat lady, or the tall man in this case, (Mueller) still has not sung.



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