Trump will go to war. Here is why!

President Trump may, arguably, have knowledge of domestic policy, but when it comes to foreign policy he is woefully out of his depth. His understanding of the world political stage is pedestrian and embarrassingly incorrect. Just the other day when meeting the Lebanese Prime Minister he thanked Lebanon for the war on terror and for fighting ISIS and 'Hezbollah'! Does he not know Hezbollah are part of the Lebanese government and sworn enemies of ISIS? In the back drop of his lack of understanding of foreign affairs it is no surprise that no cogent foreign policy statement has come from his administration. To some extent he has alienated the US from its traditional allies in Europe, departed from the spirit of a consensus on major global issues through interaction with other leaders, and it would seem to him managing foreign policy through 'tweets' is his style or perhaps reflection of his minuscule understanding of the world.

There is no denying the world is in turmoil, and there are some serious theaters of conflict and potential conflict. While there are signs of skirmishes between Iran and US forces in the Arabian Gulf, the bigger, and more troubling, problem of North Korea's nuclear and missile posture causes serious concerns. In the initial days of his Presidency, and before the 'Kremlingate' matter attracted public attention, President Trump was eager to show his diplomatic skills. Meeting the Japanese, Mexican and Chinese leadership. He was buoyant that the Chinese would work with the US to reign in North Korea and not only would a rouge state being stopped in its tracks he would claim he was the mastermind of a diplomatic effort that brought peace to the world. (Perhaps the Noble Peace Prize).

While China has dragged itself, one foot at a time, into sanctioning the North Koreans and tried to pressure its leadership to abandon the missile and nuclear program, the results have not been encouraging. In a sense the Chinese solution, if there is one, would be a series of small, deliberate steps, to convince the North Koreans of changing their policy. Beijing knows that diplomacy is not like instant coffee and an axis of a Beijing-Washington pressure on North Korea has to be well orchestrated and coordinated. Sadly Trumps lack of understanding shows up when North Korea continues to test missiles he loses his cool and tweets not only against the tests but also has a swing at China for not doing enough!

Here is a plausible theory, and one could be totally wrong, but in real politik this happens.

As Trump is beleaguered more and more into the Kremlingate investigation, and perhaps loses support of the Republican's in Congress who held a slim hope that President Trump would be more rational than candidate Trump, I believe Trump will need to change the focus to something bigger, more pressing. In this context an escalation of tensions with North Korea will be the best course for him to take. This may explain why he would 'tweet' his disappointment with China, perhaps knowing that the Chinese would step back on the North Korean issue. The difficult question would be if China would allow the United States to be the policeman in its backyard?

The Chinese know, for the moment, North Korean posturing is not against Beijing, and they may well tolerate a well armed North Korea and in time reign back its missile program, when it suits Chinese policy aims. Would they step up to help Washington in this regard without a qui pro quo. China may well wish to establish that America accept a bi polar world with China having its own sphere of influence extending the South China Sea to the Indian Ocean, and the US having its own region of influence.

But these are complicated issues to put into a model of foreign policy and why do that when you can tweet your way into trouble. So here is the prediction, 'if the heat on the Russian issue becomes too much for Mr Trump he may not hesitate to start limited, or surgical, hostilities against the North Koreans. While he may not have read a decent history book, his butler may well tell him that nothing unites a nation like a war.