Trump and Twitter: The role of social media in US Politics.

President Trump, as candidate for the Presidential election, whether by design or through the sheer twist of his personality used social media, and especially Twitter, to create a phenomenon that actually won him the election. I do not believe this was a thought out strategy but it fell into a space where his personality benefited from the use of this 160 words messaging blitz per message and as it snowballed into a massive following of over 55 million followers, it became his chosen platform of communication. While admittedly not all 55 million are his ardent admirers it did draw into his base of followers. Without disrespect to his base, most of them did not prefer to delve into the 3000 word articles analyzing the position of different candidates on national and even international issues. Like Trump their attention span fitted into the Twitter format perfectly.

But this was only the backdrop in which then candidate Trump and now President, tweeted over 35,000 tweets in the past year alone. Spending months analyzing Trumps Twitter behavior reveals something interesting. Not prone to a serious debate or deep intellectual discourses on the state of the world or the US, Trump realized that he could say anything on Twitter and in a nano second it would not only be read but believed by his followers. If it was a lie, and many of his tweets were fabrications, then people would, much like the world of Twitter just simply move on.

His biggest coup was apparent when Hilary Clinton was speaking at the Democratic Convention and while she was speaking, Donald Trump was tweeting, in real time, his rebuttals, some of which were not accurate, to a much larger audience. Having sent his tirade of tweets out while Hilary was speaking he forced the hand of the press corp to then not only report on what Hilary had said but in real time also refer to what Trump had said on those issues. This was unprecedented as in the past such a speech would have been reported as it happened only the next day or hours later the rebuttals from opposing candidates would be reported. In a sense Trump was diluting Hilary's message.

Because no one in political circles had seen this sort of use of social media the political pundits considered Trump inexperienced, immature politically to have a serious view point. But these intellectual stalwarts forgot one important thing, Trump was outflanking them and appealing to the very people who did not read or want to read the lengthy articles in the main media. Like Trump they liked in the world of the nano second, and it did not matter to them what anyone else said but like it or not Trump had not only the first move advantage on Twitter, he relentlessly hogged that space.

Fact checking Trumps tweets does reveal in general he was lying, bending facts, or simply attacking people. But this did not matter because much like Twitters architecture a message has a limited life out there and yes people can comment and correct the tweet, but still the original message has found its mark. Importantly Trump followed one cardinal rule, he ignored all replies to his tweets, even those that praised him, the few that they were, because to him these views that did not agree with him did not matter, they were just noise. The media outlets that liked his message believed his tweets with messianic fervor, his detractors laughed at him, but beneath the surface he managed to communicate with his base in a simple language they liked, truth or not.

As President, Trump has not given up Twitter and even used it to go after North Korea, China, Nato, Mexico, Canada, you name it and he has done it. Many purists believe, and rightly so, that Twitter during a campaign and Twitter as President are two different roles and it is not becoming of the President of the United States to use Twitter to demean and attack people. However, perhaps its a habit with Donald Trump that he cannot quit Twitter, or that he simply believes the electioneering must continue and twitter is the weapon of choice to him. Even as President the spread of lies through Twitter does not bother him because unlike other President these mid term elections are really a battle for his survival. He knows if his predicted red wave falters, then even his supporters in Congress will jump ship, all the more reason many of them have followed him for the fear that his base may turn against them. However, in time the US public will realize that his core base cannot be larger than the electorate and the test of that is around the corner.

For the moment Trump has only two weapons in his hands; his public rallies and his Twitter account. He has spent less time working as President than he has on the campaign trail trying to get his loyal candidates elected, sometimes sounding as if it was he fighting the election and not them. It seems its a matter of time when, like Kanye West, others realize that Donald Trump has used and abused their support. For the moment one has to give him his due credit for knowing the power of Twitter was powerful enough to tell lies and still be elected.

Pakistan: The bitter IMF pill.

As much as newly elected PM Imran Khan, did not want to go to the IMF with begging bowl in hand, the sad reality is that its door is being knocked on for an emerging funding to prevent a serious default of Pakistan's $95 billion debt. In 2015 this debt stood at $66 billion and the the obvious question is $29 billion additional debt was amassed in just three years? To harp on the inefficiencies and mismanagement of previous governments is not going to solve the crisis at hand. Clearly, if the $8 billion emergency package is approved by the IMF it will come with a whole host of bitter pills for the people. Increased taxes, increased power rates, removal of some subsidies and a demand for austerity.

There is an old adage that a country deserves the leaders it chooses. If we as Pakistani's have chosen past governments who have dug us deeper into the debt hole with each term of office then we ought to be ready for the pain to claw our way back out of it. Let there be no mistake that this will not take 100 days and Imran Khan and his team ought to be careful to over promise a recovery too soon. I am not sure he has the right team in place, given that Atif Mian, a prominent economist who happened to belong to the Ahamadi sect, was forced to leave the advisory council in a shameful bowing to religious fundamentalists.

The cost of living will no doubt go up with these measures but there are some fundamental structural issues that need to be resolved. Fiscal discipline is indeed one of the main priorities coupled with not only austerity but also ensuring that developmental expenditures are spent in the right way. It seemed one of the previous governments felt building motorways was the only way to show for progress; even though they may have helped, but infrastructure improvements on their own is like firing blanks at a tank coming your way. Investment into industries, especially export related industries has to be encouraged, bringing confidence to the private sector and also ensuring that the accountability drive does not needlessly target the genuine business investments.

The tax base has to be broadened; it is projected that currently only 1% of Pakistani's pay income tax. While efforts and promises to broaden the tax base have been made in the past the results have been mediocre. Something innovative has to be thought out about this and there has to be a careful rethink of the tax structure too. Cigarettes as an example are still 25% of the price of what they are in Dubai! I believe export related earnings should be given a tax credit that can be used to off set the income tax for the owners and a strict vigilance be maintained to make sure over invoicing and other tactics are not used to inflate export earnings to misuse the tax incentives.

There also has to be a frank talk with the Military and the military defense expenditure to be brought down. Yes there is a war on terror, for which the US has said they will not pay, and there are security concerns across the board, but surely the military can also see where they can cut expenditures and bring about a reduction in of the largest line items on the budget expense side. In addition, rationalizing the size of the government administration would also be a useful undertaking. However as much as the expense items can be controlled or reduced the real trick is to get the income side to perform better.

The income mainly would be in three broad categories; exports, taxes and remittances from Pakistani's abroad. While the Khan government has said they will announce some measures for the last item some simple steps are needed. The embassies in countries where there are large Pakistani populations working need to be improved. As a matter of policy in these countries no positions in the embassies should be filled by political appointees, and the best of the best should be placed there. In some cases the embassies and consulates are in a terrible state of disrepair and one feels one has walked into a 1950's building which may fall down any time.

The big question is that with an IMF package will come loads of conditions and no matter how our jingoistic feelings prompt us to consider we are being dictated to, the fact remains these conditions have to be accepted and only when measures within the country improve can there be a change in the mood of the lenders. I am not sure that the Imran and his team quite understand that the backbone of their success will ultimately be judged not on the rhetoric that is espoused from the pulpit but the success of some hard decisions that have to be taken. The team that should carry this out has to be first class and a good first step would be to make sure all the PTI stakeholders do not again raise objections to the color, sex, or religion of any member of the team.