Pakistan: Beyond the Sad Soap Opera of Expectations.

 For an omniscient observer of Pakistani politics the ingredients of a soap opera are all present; the heroes, the villains, the king makers, the conspirators, the exiles and the list goes on. Your choice of casting the actors into each of the roles depends upon your political persuasion and the intensity of the narrative you spin is a matter of passion. This soap is played out best on the vast screen of the social media and the Pakistan diaspora assemble from Australia to the United States and Canada and ofcourse a good measure of Pakistanis from the land of the faithful. While there is a fair amount of venting, (which is good), some alleged access of 'reliable' sources, there is also a healthy portion of intelligent and immersive debate. Twitter Spaces is the venue of this 24/7 congregation and the quality of the discussion all boils down to the 'host' and the key participants. 

Indeed the social media space and the ensuing war there is being won by supporters of Imran Khan and PTI, and a fair amount of space is, rightfully or not, 'their' space. However, with patience and due search one finds some remarkable discussions from economics, to energy crisis to solutions for water scarcity and micro economic measures ensue. Once the political narrative is discarded the discussions are polite and informative. In a country burdened with the expectation of solutions these participants clearly have the intellectual capital to make a difference. A young Pakistani from Australia, for example, delivered perhaps the best explanation of Pakistan's economic challenges and possible steps to rectify things. Another young man was amazingly articulate in micro economic steps to develop and nurture a cheese industry with massive potential for export earnings. 

The mood and flow of the venting depends on the news of the day, yet some narratives remain the order of discussion each day. The role of the Army, the corruption in the country, the failure of the new coalition government, the injustice to Imran Khan, and the list goes one. On the other side, in small murmurs are the Sharif camp glorifying the Sharif brothers as if they were some bygone heavyweight boxing champions with a birthright to remain in the ring. Keeping with the tradition of politics they claim Imran Khan left them a mess and they are the only ones who can clean it up.

With a detached sense of observance one can sense a deep feeling of expectations. The expectation that one man will appear like the hero on a white horse and rid the world of evil. The irony that the rider does not ride alone and in the context of Pakistan not being alone might well mean having an army of two million supporters to make ones voice heard. Labels of 'traitor' as handed out all who don't agree and each side somehow feels the best argument for change is one of the blame game. 

However in all this noise some important truths do emerge; there is a massive agenda of vested interest, there is a possibility of election rigging, the current army head (General Bajwa) may not retire and by some customary trick still be relevant, the politicians facing corruption charges will get a 'get out of jail card', the judiciary has been selective in their 'justice' or the lack of it. These are truths or issues that should concern all Pakistani's irrespective of their political persuasion and need some discourse. 

Vested Interests:

Pakistan, like most countries, has vested interests embedded into their system of operations. The vested interests work to either create a conducive status quo or remove an action that works against the interests of such groups. Such groups range from business to political figures to government employees and the military. With the lack of transparency and accountability over the past 50 years or more these vested interests have felt a systemic protection exists to not expose them. The result is that compromised politics and governance become the order of the day rather than the exception. 

Election Rigging:

One doubts if ever an election was held in Pakistan where election rigging in one form or another did not exist. The scope and depth of the rigging has varied from election to election. The introduction of Electronic Voting Machines was clearly a step in the right direction to greatly minimise the possibility of rigging. However, it is also true that elections with high turn outs, like over 55-60% are difficult to rig entirely and ensure a 'fairer' outcome than elections with low turn outs. Public education and a better sense of the civic duty of citizens to vote are also key drivers to achieve a better turn out.

Extension of Army Chief's service.

We sometimes make decisions that come to haunt us. If the PTI camp believe that the chief of the military had a major role to play in the ouster of Imran Khan, then one should recall that in 2019 when the Supreme Court objected to the intended extension of the current chief (Gen Bajwa's) they went through considerable pain to get an amendment to the Pakistan Army Act of 1952, with an amendment to allow the extension of the term of Gen Bajwa. It would be very surprising of another extension can be granted by anyone. Further there is noise that he may seek a new hybrid role of 'Chief of Defence'. This is highly unlikely as there is no provision in the law to make such an appointment.

The Get out of Jail Card:

A large number of members of the current coalition government, which replaced Imran Khan, are either facing trials for corruption and other crimes and some are out on bail while they appeal the convictions. Irrespective of the bad optics of a government with 60% of its members out on bail, the fact remains one has to wonder how much of their political 'fight' to save Pakistan is really a fight to save themselves by having these judgements against them not only reversed but closed from further prosecution. This might also explain why the two main political parties that hated each others guts are aligned together today.

Selective Justice:

There is a general feeling that the judicial system has been selective in the dispensation of justice. Important cases are slowed down while critical cases are not accompanied with a detailed explanation which may be easy for the common man to understand. In addition some vital national interest matters, like the question of the Volume 10 disclosure on corruption and foreign assets, has been pending before the Supreme Court since 2017. A case of immense importance to transparency in Pakistan which would disclose vital information on all segments of Pakistani society and the related corruption!

In the backdrop of these truths is the expectation that a miracle will occur and we will walk into a new day with these ills all removed. Sadly its not that simple. There has to be a concerted effort for reforms which cover every branch of government, the judiciary, the economy and even the military establishment. These reforms should be triggered from the perspective of what is good for the country and we have a history of 70 years to tell us what is wrong; thus discovering what is good for the country should not be gigantic task. While a reasonable mind would feel Imran Khan has the cleaner record to bring about these reforms it will need a hard core team of the best professionals one can find, even if they are not of the same political colour we like to see. 

Pakistan: Mapping an Economic Recovery.

 In a politically charged country having a sensible discussion on the economy is fraught with frustration. The political narrative deceptively disguises a combination of economic mismanagement and/or inaction the result of which is an anaemic economy. Talk of an economic default is common, and with it comes the weight of the blame game. Add to this cocktail endemic corruption, especially by the political leadership of the past and the result is not comforting. 

The PTI government of Imran Khan was seen as a possibility to steer the economic ship to calmer waters and in some areas success was seen. Two of their major achievements are increasing the tax base from 1.14 million tax payers to 2.4 million and to improve electric bill collection by 157%. Concerted efforts to address the trade balance did occur during their government with cutting imports from $63 billion in 2018 to $46 billion in 2020. During the same period exports fell from $26.22 billion in 2018 to $25.26 billion (largely affected by COVID). 

The PTI government inherited foreign exchange reserves of around $16 billion in mid 2018. In March 2022, around the time of the ouster of the Imran Khan government, the reserves were $22.4 billion, which then in first week of April (as the non confidence motion was going on) declined to $17.3 billion on account of $2.9 billion in debt repayment ($2.4 b alone to SAFE of China) and drop in home remittances from mid March 2022 to end of April 2022.  In reality in the period 2010 to 2022 Pakistan foreign exchange reserves have ranged from a low of $13 billion to a high of $28 billion (August 2021 on account of fresh loan disbursements). 

On the other hand the trade balance of Pakistan has been deteriorating over the past 10 years. This is largely due to stagnant exports and mushrooming exports. In addition internal structural economic inefficiencies in the power generation sector and the gas sector have added a huge burden to successive governments. In fairness to the PTI government they survived the stormy waters of the COVID 19 impact while registering below single digit growth, the more adverse damage was avoided. In 2021 we saw a buoyant growth in GDP and it would auger that some fundamentals at the macro level could have been turning positive. 

Looking back at the economic indicators and numbers can go only so far in a country of 230 million people where poverty and debt defaults are the topic of discussion on an everyday basis. Mapping Pakistan's economic recovery requires to consider a 10 year economic plan. While the intent to reduce the $130 billion debt burden is a cliched slogan one is inclined to believe that solutions are either not being focused upon or the political will to deal with these issues is absent. The issues being listed below not only need economic policy commitments to correct the situation but also need to consider a plethora of while social and administrative changes in the way the country works, (or does not work). 

Major Issues.

1. Circular Debt.

In short circular debt is a accumulation of unpaid subsidies on the electric power generation in the country and it is raised to finance the distribution companies who have to pay the power generation companies. In normal circumstances the circular debt would simply be the funding required to plug the gap between the power bill and the collection of bills from consumers. However, successive governments have subsidised power in multiple ways; either by incentives to power generation companies by paying them a higher tariff (PPP and PMLN governments) or by paying a subsidy on account of the consumers (PTI). The historical problems of the energy sector were covered in an earlier blog https://aqsher.blogspot.com/2021/11/pakistans-energy-sector-historical.html?m=1 so will not go into it much here.

The effect of this is that Pakistans financial system carriers a massive circular debt which in 2018 was PkRs 1.14 trillion and in April 2022 was PkRs 2.3 trillion. This increase was on account of the power subsidy from the PTI government (Rs 404 billion) and around RS 660 billion of subsidies to power producers plus the interest impact with such debt costing as high as 13% (and rising).  This circular debt is almost entirely held by domestic banks and is currently at $11.5 billion (Rs 2.3 trillion). How to reform the power sector and reduce this circular debt has to be a priority and have been dealt with in detail in the mentioned blog. However to summarise the following steps needs to be taken urgently.

a. Develop more efficient and cheaper power generation capacity to replace the expensive and inefficient power plants (which are subsidised through the agreements of the past). With new capacity the need for subsidy will go and older plants will either be phased out or power generators will have to come into line with new tariffs.

b. Improve the consumer electric billings collection. It is estimated that about 20-30% of consumer bills are unpaid or seriously delayed and about 12-15% of power is stolen from transmission lines. In 3 years it is estimated that the PTI government did improve bill collection by Rs 190 billion, and this needs to be continued and extended to government entities who are chronic defaulters in their bill payments.

c. The aim of the above measures should aim to reduce the circular debt by $2 billion a year after a two year implementation period, thus implying that in 6-7 years this $11.5 billion debt will be settled bringing much needed liquidity and confidence to the financial system.

d. Reform the gas energy generation sector where inefficiencies are chronic. For instance Pakistan loses gas worth roughly $4 billion a year through what is called Unaccounted For Gas (UFG). This is gas that escapes the transmission system through methane emissions and leakages. It is estimated that fixing this problem will cost $500 million and it would provide $4 billion of revenue a year!

2. Economic impact of corruption.

It is estimated that corruption within Pakistan costs the economy PkRs 7 billion (US$31 million) per day! That is over $12 billion a year of adverse economic impact on the economy. This is corruption at all levels, largely politically sanctioned and in many cases institutional at district level, police, judiciary and various government offices. Imran Khan has talked of a crusade against corruption and often has talked of stolen money being returned to Pakistan from abroad but there need to be steps taken to deal with the situation within the country too. 

A credible system of accountability and justice needs to be created which is not politicised by any party. Once public figures are being investigated or facing the judicial system any comment by political figures should be avoided as it plays into the political victimisation narrative. Reforms need to be considered where people who are being investigated should step aside from public and government positions. Currently there is no oversight of the judicial system for corruption and there needs to be some reform in this respect too.  As is known there is a military judicial system within the military establishments of the country and it should be considered that from time to time the military disclose actions that are taken against military personnel who have broken the law. This is a transparency all sections of the government need. 

Imagine if corruption can be reduced by 50% that will mean $6 billion more money into the system which is ten years could cut our external debt by 50%!

3. Focus on Exports.

One does not need to be an economic rocket scientist to know that positioning the economy to have more exports than imports is the best way to improve the lot of the country and the people. Since 1960 Pakistan has only had a few odd years where our exports were more than our imports, (trade surplus), and the trade deficit has been chronically rising year on year. There is an argument that this is largely on account of rising import costs for fuel and gas, which may partially be correct, but there is not doubt that export performance has been very weak. 

A concerted and well thought out policy and plan for boosting exports needs to be implemented. Incentives for exports and extension of banking credit to be made available for exporters. This is the most vital part of the economy that needs to be seriously overhauled. 

Pakistan Trade Balance - Historical Data

Year        Billions of US $.       

2020.        $-18.60B

2019        $-28.38B

2018        $-34.92B

2017        $-28.44B

2016        $-19.55B

2015         $-17.44B

2014        $-15.68B

2013        $-15.67B

2012        $-17.98B

2011        $-10.69B

2010        $-10.34B

2009        $-12.24B    

2008        $-18.42B

2007        $-10.00B

2006        $-10.18B    

2005        $-4.24B

2004        $1.01B

2003        $0.49B

2002        $-0.07B

2001        $-0.76B

2000        $-0.92B

1999        $-1.02B

1998        $-0.65B-

1997        $-2.93B

1996        $-2.86B

1995        $-1.64B

1994        $-1.43B

1993        $-3.16B

1992        $-1.54B

1991        $-0.71B

1990        $-2.18B

1989        $-2.52B

1988        $-2.14B

1987        $-1.76B

1986        $-2.49B

1985        $-3.75B

1984        $-3.29B

1983        $-2.96B

1982        $-3.36B

1981        $-2.67B

1980        $-2.53B

1979       $-2.12B

1978        $-1.61B

1977        $-1.29B

1976        $-1.01B

1975        $-1.01B

1974        $-0.33B-

1973        $0.03B

1972        $-0.14B

1971        $-0.29B

1970        $-0.27B

1969        $-0.32B

1968        $-0.33B-

1967        $-0.50B

1966        $-0.35B

1965        $-0.59B

1964        $-0.40B

1963        $-0.35B

1962        $-0.33B

1961        $-0.32B-

1960        $-0.23B

4. Banking Reform.

Looking at the balance sheet of any of the banks in Pakistan will reveal that banks are simply involved in an arbitrage game. They take low cost deposits and invest them in government borrowings and a smaller proportion of their assets are deployed in lending to the economic sectors. Lending is also largely to government entities or the very large private groups with the SME market largely ignored. 

A banking reform is badly needed where banks are given targets for lending into various economic sectors. Even in the United States banks are obligated to lend for say affordable housing (low cost housing) and there are severe penalties on banks who do not achieve those targets. While banks are the trustees of public deposits they also have an important economic function to fuel growth.

Political Complexions.

Since 1970s political prerogatives have cast the framework for experiments with the economy the burden of which have deeply affected the economy. Z.A. Bhutto's socialist experiment and mass nationalisation of industries and banks was not only a failure of gigantic proportions it set back the economy by decades. The war in Afghanistan during the Soviet occupation there plugged the balance of payments through US aid packages which was then followed by a merry go around of successive PPP and PMLN governments with a stint of military rule under General Musharraf. The PPP and PMLN economic planning was largely debt driven and creating structural inefficiencies as we saw in the power sector. 

The PTI economic model is not completely clear and this is perhaps because their economic team needs to be stronger. In what has been so far there is a broader approach to social and economic welfare and graduated reforms in some economic sectors. The expansion of the tax base and improving revenue collection are good first steps and need to be supported by a cohesive 5 year economic plan which would be important to monitor performance. 

While Pakistan economic problems seem massive and insurmountable there are solutions that are available. This economic map of recovery if implemented can reduce Pakistans reliance of debt financing, improve economic performance and provide monetary surplus for affecting social change. The important question to ask if there is the political will to go down this path which requires some tough decisions. 

Pakistan Army: Damned if they do and Damned if they don't!

 Being a cantonment rat because my father was in the army, throughout my life the din of army life was always present. Studying in Cadet College Petaro (yes Zardari and I were batch mates), the expectation was to join the army. However my father, who had an illustrious military career talked me out of it with the words, "you are too political to serve in the army". Through the tumultuous history of Pakistan we have had four military governments and through each civilian government the feeling has been that generals have been in the shadows. 

Relations between civilian governments and the military has been shaped by many factors, largely shaped by the perception of stability or lack of it and how it can develop into threats to the country. At other times divergences on national security issues ( Nawaz Sharif and General Musharraf) had resulted in military assuming power. At other times political interference in the affairs of the military as did Z. A Bhutto resulted in the rise of General Zia ul Haq, an officer who superseded more competent officer to rise at the top created conditions that affected civilian-military relationships. 

Today social media is flooded with people debating the role of the Army in the ouster of Imran Khan. Before assuming the office of PM Imran himself has stated that the army chief was neutral and not political, and today it seems his ardent supporters are talking of the betrayal of Imran by the army chief. For the record this seemed the second time in Pakistan history where the army has remained neutral (General Aslam Baig was the other). I support Imran and while I have not heard any comments, so far, from him blaming the army for his ouster, he has made snide references to traitors and turncoats which can be seen a wild broadsides to any and everyone. 

From what one can glean the army remained neutral through the whole saga of the non confidence motion and it all may have encouraged a final nudge after Imran had lost the vote. As a supporter of democracy one can only be satisfied that the army was not the kingmaker in this instance. As a supporter of Imran one feels wronged by the non confidence motion but that is a part of the parliamentary democracy. Party members change sides, for whatever reason, this is what democracy is about, and of there is or was a foreign conspiracy then there is a different forum to debate and deliberate in. 

In a country where almost every institution has been plagued with corruption, nepotism and divisiveness along ethnic and religious affiliations, the Pakistan army remains very different. It is the only institution where your ethnic and religious background do not matter. It remains the one body has has internal remained stable and provided the edifice of security in a country where direct and indirect threats are numerous. 

Indeed this is a different army from the one my father served in where certain norms of conduct were rigid. I never ever sat in my father official car and one time I asked his military batman to polish my shoes i was severely punished by my father with the words 'he is here to look after me, not you'. Perhaps today batman's in many military homes are used as personal servants of the whole house and no one may consider that wrong. There have been rumblings that some officers live beyond their means etc. etc. However there is a process to within the military code to bring such officers to task and as per military protocols this is not plastered in newspapers. 

One wants to see the military out of politics and thus when they have done so this time, we should not damn them for this role. By constitution the army is expected to stay out of politics and it has largely done so this time. Imran Khan would be in his right to blame his former alliance members and party members for being traitors to him and his party and were he to have enough members in the next assembly he can reform the constitution to deal with floor crossing and it would be within their rights to do so. 

While this piece may not find many friends on both sides of aisle, I do feel that at times we have to think of Pakistan first and then parties and individuals. We should not allow needless attacks on the role of the army when it has shown it can stand away from the political process as this plays into the hands of the enemies of Pakistan. There are ample professional soldiers in the Pakistan army who will continue the tradition of professionalism and shun politics and that is the continuity that Pakistan needs more than ever. 

In the same vein the Sharif government should not try and milk this situation by passing resolutions condemning Imran Khan and the PTI for alleged insults to the army. Certainly the PMLN is aware of its own castigation of the army during the Musharraf era, and it needs to concentrate on governance rather than immature politics. 

Indeed Imran Khan has created political awareness in droves of the youth who were apathetic towards politics and this is a good thing. He also bears the responsibility to guide these youth to positive change and not engage in an emotional narrative that defiles the one institution, the military, which was neutral and continues to provide the stability that is needed. These are delicate times for the country and many, including myself, hope that elections are held and this mess is cleared up. By the same token we need to be careful not to ignite emotions that can cost the country dearly. 

Pakistan: Toxic Politics.

 Any serious inspection of Pakistan's politics would leave the observer with a distinct impression that the political fabric of the country is seriously damaged. Since the 1970's, with the emergence of Zulfikar Ali Bhutto, we saw the politics of cults and political dynasties. This cultism continued to his daughter Benazir and now to her son Bilawal. Across the aisle the cultivation of the Sharif family by the dictator Zia ul Haq into a political caucus created the cult of the Sharifs through Nawaz Sharif to his brother Shahbaz and now to his son Hamza. Today it seems the cult of Imran Khan is being created on the back of a call for populous patriotism. 

The political conscience of the country has been raped so often that rapists appear as benefactors and the poor victims (the Pakistan public) embrace them with a sense of forgiveness. What political parties lack in agenda they make up in rhetoric. Their claims of national duty and national selflessness belie the carnivorous corruption that permeates through the rank and file of each political party. Accountability is politicised to the extent that the those being held accountable always have a 'get out of jail' card in the shape of political victimisation. 

In Pakistan's 75 odd years since creation the military has often played the role of the kingmaker and at times assumed the mantle of kingship itself. Interestingly at its rank and file it remains perhaps the only institution that does not have the toxicity of regional, tribal, religious and feudal divisions that plague the country. While its generals have long bet on their political favourites, often falling out with them, they still have some modicum of credibility in saying they are holding the country together.

Imran Khan in his twenty odd years of politicking has had his share of knocks that are part and parcel of the process of political maturing. Creating a new political party of the size that the PTI has become is bound to have its share of political compromises and policy missteps. While he may well have energised the political awareness of people, especially the youth, he still has to understand political rhetoric is not enough and delivery of substantive change needs a robust and highly skilled team. 

While his charisma and public appeal is the glue that binds PTI together there is a needs to translate that into ensuring that PTI does not remain a political movement but actually becomes a political party. This means using the brain power to create discourse within and to bring effective policies for change and then create the teams to bring that change. Imran's biggest capital has remained his honesty and while the accusations of some pilfering of 'state gifts' are an irritation Imran must create the transparency to keep his cleanliness intact. 

His ouster while controversial was essentially on the back of disenchantment from some back benchers in his coalition government, encouraged by horse trading by the Opposition. In the backdrop of rising prices (largely due to the global effects of COVID) the PTI economic performance was hardly stellar. Obsessed to expose the corruption of his predecessors, which seems was there, he unwound contracts for oil and gas which were favourable to Pakistan especially at a time when energy prices were rising. His economic teams was hardly one that one would call the best of breed and he could have done better in this respect.

The PTI ouster also was accompanied in the backdrop of some very undiplomatic comments from a senior official of the US State Department. While the comments cannot conclusively prove that the instigators of the non confidence vote against Imran Khan actually were guided by handlers in the US State Department they did certainly provide Imran with the smoking gun for a conspiracy. Having used this conspiracy card to galvanise the massive public support since his ouster it is not something he can not discard. This does not take away the fact Imran Khan was not exactly Washington's favourite.

For Pakistan however these events can hardly be good news. They now have a new coalition government the partners in which are only united because their hatred for Imran Khan is more than the hatred for each other. Whether such a taped up government can last till the Winter of 2023 when new elections are to be held remains to be seen. For Imran Khan the question remains if he can keep the same tempo of public support till then and hence his call for urgent elections. 

In a sense, with hindsight, one would believe that PMLN and PPP miscalculated their move as ousting Imran Khan in the manner he was removed has actually made him more popular. Surely the massive turn out in the public rallies, since his removal, must have sent some shivers down the back of the Bhuttos and Sharifs backs. While the PTI calling the opposition traitors of Pakistan is far fetched it is certainly drawing political mileage with a public that can be worked up to a frenzy. 

For Imran Khan while the public support garners well there is concern that some of the stigmatisation of his opponents by him as traitors of Pakistan and equating loyalty to him with loyalty to the country stinks of a nationalist fascism that cannot be good for Pakistan in the long term. One has to embrace duplicity of politics where politicians change sides (many of his ardent party members were in other parties before) and there will always be crossing of the aisle. This is what makes it vital that a party not only delivers on its agenda but also carries its members along. 

Pakistan stands at the crossroads where the roadsigns visible to neutral observers spell of toxic politics. Lines are getting drawn ever harder, compromise is all the more difficult and it would seem 75 years of political mismanagement is reaching a watershed moment. Four years ago many felt that Imran was a breath of fresh air, who while lacking political intellect at least had the mileage of honesty to make a difference. The two major political parties while experienced in the walking the portals of power have a great deal to answer for this misdeeds. Yet one hears people frighteningly  say that would would prefer the 'technocratic thieves over incompetent honesty'.

Yet this crossroad is not only about political choices, it's about making the right choices to move from a nation to proper nationhood. It's about examining the soul of the nation to bring maturity to political dissent, substance to governance, and values and ethics to our social fabric. Political divides are good and healthy, provided the discourse we engage in remains respectful and decent. One does not need to shout our opponent down or stand in front of their homes and hurl vulgar abuse, or drown their social media presence with the most vile and uncouth trolling. 

We know that the stakes are high as a political loss always means courts and scrutiny into corruption and mismanagement. Political witch hunts armed with a tainted judiciary only makes heroes out of people. We has to believe that the pillars of democracy rest upon a fair judiciary, a free and responsible press and an educated population. As Pakistanis we need to see how strong are these pillars. The judiciary should examine the corruption and politicians, both in power and out of power should remain silent on matters being adjudicated before the courts. The press should be impartial and fair rather than partisan because then only can it truly hold people in power accountable. Educating the population on their political and civic duties is of paramount importance. However, since the 1970s successive governments have interfered in the educational system with the aim of not only rewriting history but in some cases removing civic studies from the curriculum in schools. It is almost as if the governments in power want an uneducated population so they can manipulate their political conscience yet again.

Imran Khan's Gambit: A defining moment of incompetence.

 A week ago the deputy speaker of the National Assembly disallowed the non confidence motion and a jubilant Imran asked for the assembly to be dissolved as it seemed he has side stepped the no confidence motion. The Supreme Court of Pakistan reversed the move and restored the assembly and today in a few hours the assembly is presumably going to vote on the future of Imran Khan. Jurists will argue whether the Supreme Court has violated the separation of powers and indeed the legal saga may well continue. Imran Khan while saying he accepts the decision of the Supreme Court has kept his cards close to his chest and whatever his next move he will no doubt rely on his supporters to continue 'the struggle' on the streets. 

While I have always admired and believed in Imran's honesty and patriotism his political views have always come across as an over simplification. Prone to accept advice that suits his own view of the world creates a filter that breeds a cultish following that cannot be the recipe for good advice. The use of Article 5 as the basis for countering the no confidence motion was seriously faulted. Indeed the tone of the communication from the US diplomat was very harsh and undiplomatic, but it is not unusual for countries to express their displeasure to embassy officials. How such a communication proves that there was a conspiracy with members of the opposition in Pakistan needs substantially more evidence than what we have seen thus far. 

The Supreme Court may well be the forum to decide whether the actions of the deputy speaker were procedurally correct. Where the judges have over stepped their mandate is in directing the time and date and agenda of the first session of the restored National Assembly. This may well be the point of order on which the judgement may be challenged. The fact remains that in a democracy a no confidence motion is commonly used and it is a fact that members from the Treasury benches can and do cross over to the opposition. In Pakistan it is also the norm that from the day a new government is formed the opposition starts to plan its downfall. This is a zero sum game and indeed with Imran Khan in the opposition we are likely to see him also make every effort to dislodge the government that takes control now. 

While Imran Khan may well wield street power and will use it as best as he can, he needs to also reflect on the past few years and learn from the mistakes. As the noise for a non confidence motion was gaining momentum some three months back Imran Khan felt his hold on his own party and its allies was strong enough to thwart any attempt to remove him from office. Yes there was and is unprecedented price inflation and the economy has continued to under perform. A major impact of this is the global inflation and price instability but since the start of the PTI government they could not give any direction to the economy. 

Imran's promises of forcing the corrupt politicians to return the 'billions' they stole within a year, and to change the course of Pakistan's economy within 90 days were also election rhetoric and while some administrative reforms were made, not enough was done to change the situation on the ground. Imran suffers from the same syndrome that plagued the likes of Zulfikar Bhutto, who came to power with a promise of change, but never could transform things with good advice or break the mould of personality cult. For long the party that Bhutto formed, the PPP, remained a Bhutto family cult, and that continues to this day. The same is true of the PMLN, which is the domain of the Sharif family. Imran slipped into the same mould of surrounding himself with 'yes' men and party machinery aims to further his cult.

In this sense PTI remains a movement and not a political party where a core of political figures have a say. This is true of the other political parties too, but over three decades the likes of Sharifs and Bhuttos have realised they have to carry some of their party members with them. Imran must also understand that his own clean image is not enough to carry a nation with him. He needs to build a first class team around him and to also carry the team with him by giving them credit and praise. A criticism of Imran remains that its all about him and no one else.

For Pakistan while some will hail these developments as a victory for the Constitution but it brings with it the very people who has heavily tainted with corruption back to power. While an election may well be on the one year horizon where the decision by Pakistanis will have to be made whether they prefer incompetence (Imran's PTI) over corruption (PPP and PMLN). Neutral Pakistanis will woe the fact that in Imran Khan's government there was a chance to turn the corner with better governance and economic performance. 

The 220 million people of Pakistan can only hope that Imran Khan and his PTI will have learned an important and vital lesson and will earnestly begin to reform into a party of substance rather than resort to street power as the only option of change. The opposition government that may come to power now will at best be a patch work of  different agendas and will struggle to make any difference. To capitalise on this Imran himself will have to do some soul searching and start with a change in his style of leadership. Pakistan politics needs to mature from rhetoric to substance and this implies changes in not only the style of leadership but also the faces that come forward. 

Pakistan Focus: The Khan and the Opposition

 Imran Khan and his government face a non confidence motion that could end the Khan's first stint in power in a country where the complexions of politics defy common sense. Most likely, it would seem at the point of this writing, that his government will not survive the no confidence motion largely because of the desertions of his allies. When he first assumed power I did write him an open letter, more in the spirit of a friendship rather than a political lecture, and though I doubt he ever read it, one cannot help wonder where did he lose the plot. 

Imran always has been upfront about his views, and you get pretty much how he sees it, sometimes naive, (on economic affairs) and too blunt (on international politics) but you do not get corruption. While be brought a freshness to the political scene his optimism to 'fix' things within a year or so was perhaps overstated. How can thirty years of mismanagement of a country be fixed in even two years. While he had bucket fulls of belief in his mission it was not enough to shed the politicians who had joined his bandwagon; interestingly some of them are the ones deserting him now. 

Saddled with historical inefficiencies was further exacerbated by the effects of the COVID pandemic and the effect on the global economy. Some important resets were done, mainly bringing in a broader social welfare program and trying to move the country towards an independent foreign policy. While there were murmurs of corruption within some quarters of his political allies (the sugar mafia etc) the Khan was not visibly happy with such reports but he did fail to pursue the accused allies with the same vigour he showed in going after his political opponents. 

 One has to believe that at times of crisis the metal of a human being is tested. Imran Khan has showed no serious signs of panic and knows that other than losing the post of Prime Minister he does not have a plethora of business interests to protect or worry about. His closing gambit about foreign intervention is a bit surprising and needs some examination.

In foreign policy it is normal for bigger powers to express their displeasure to diplomats of the country they are unhappy with. Short of a formal position the informal words exchanged between governments and diplomats of other countries serve to get the not so subtle messages across. While this is interference and there is no doubt that this happens every day ignoring the messages that one does not like is more the norm. Imran Khan linking the 'message' from an unnamed government to a conspiracy with the opposition in Pakistan is setting a precedent. Because the desire of a foreign government in removing him is similar to that of the opposition does not mean there is collusion and does not make the Opposition traitors. 

Imran Khan has much more credible charges against the opposition, which are before the courts and government agencies and point to the massive looting of wealth that has taken place in the country for the past 30 odd years. There is no doubt that the opposition is united only through the common dislike of Imran Khan and his policies. The fact that some horse trading has taken place in putting together the required number of parliamentary votes to oust Imran from office cannot be denied. Whether such trading involved money, promises of ministerial posts or whatever remains to be seen. One this is certain that with elections due in 2023 the new government will eventually find its allies falling out.

Strategically speaking one wonders why didn't Imran Khan dissolve the Parliament and seek a new general election? In the broad mass of Pakistani's he remains popular and it would have been very difficult for the opposition to beat him at the ballot. Without the burden of the dissidents the Khan could have brought in new faces and perhaps a bigger majority in the National Assembly. What remains encouraging is that he has stated repeatedly that he accepts the process of parliamentary democracy and if it means he loses power so be it.

The Opposition agenda is absent beyond the removal of The Khan. The alliance is badly patched up with political parties who were at each others throat through most of Pakistan's political history. The PML-N's former leader is in self imposed exile in the face of corruption charges and after being disqualified by the courts from politics. The PPP while led by an energetic young leader has been losing its grass roots support in successive elections. The ethnically positioned MQM while not a national party has always held its role as a deal maker in any coalition government and lacks any appeal for a national position. The religious party JUI, is led by a politician who could not win his own electoral seat and carries the pretension of national leadership on the basis of a religious complexion that has been repeatedly milked for electoral votes and a say in national politics. 

The two main parties, PMLN and PPP will have to think long and hard of a fresh approach to national politics and perhaps consider a 'clean politics, clean government' agenda for the future. The rank and file of people in Pakistan will tell you after the economic challenges to the country they consider corruption as the major problem in Pakistan. If Imran Khan can be credited with something is that for once the office of the Prime Minister cannot be accused of being corrupt. 

However, it would be foolish to think that this is the end of The Khan. He carries enormous appeal to the masses and should be reform some of his party and come to the polls with a cogent economic and social policy with the right people to implement the agenda then the Opposition, united or not, will find it difficult to defeat him at the polls. 

Indian Secularism Revisted.

 India prides itself as secular state where numerous religions, ethnic groups and languages have coexisted in a largely Hindu country. The secular status of the country is enshrined in the constitution and over the past seven decades India has had presidents from different minorities. However secularism was seen in 1940's as not only a sensible option for a newly emerging country it was also nourished by a sense of political opportunism to tape together the aspirations of the Muslim, Sikh, and other religious groups. The rally call of secularism was an essential tool to also bring together ethnic groups of the south where not only a plethora of languages (divorced from the national language Hindi) were spoken but cultural and social differences were obvious. 

From the outset of Indian Independence the tussle between the need for a secular India and the need for a Nationalist Indian ethos began. During the many years of Congress rule these competing forces remained uncomfortably married where being a South Indian who could not speak Hindi coexisted with a North Indian who expected his South Indian compatriot to one day catch up with the 'Indianess" that New Delhi espoused. As the tide of political preferences moved away from the Congress thought process of the Nehru political philosophy the emerging BJP, with its grass root support from the Hindu ultra nationalists the challenge to the secular complexion of India become more acute.

While communal violence was always sporadically appearing on the Indian landscape it was always seen as a localised incident with little if any repercussions on the national scene. Under Congress the likes of RSS (the Hindu nationalists) could foment trouble against the minorities but lacked a national platform or support to move their Hindutva extremism forward. The emergence of the BJP and more specifically Mr Modi as its leader galvanised the Hindu extremists to a point where today one can argue that Indian secularism is seriously questioned. 

However, this state of affairs has not happened overnight. Secularisms failures in India has been the failure to integrate the religions, traditions, languages and culture of the many minorities into a national body of what India seeks as its secular blueprint. India sought a modernity through defining a politics that tried to marry religion into politics through an idiom of unity. However, it was always evident that when religion was an idiom in the politics of secularism in sense it created its own dichotomy and nourished communalism rather than unity. Every effort by successive governments to connect to the traditions and ethos of different religions through say a law making process resulted in not only failure but also highlighted that in a secular country having a religious polity just cannot work. 

If there was a lesson from the Partition of India, where millions died in communal violence, it was the you cannot include religion in the political vocabulary of a country. For Pakistan, which its founder desired a secular complexion to an Islamic state, it was quick to set aside any pretensions of a secular state and instead talked of protection of minorities. For India such a stance so soon after independence was not possible as it would have hacked away at the cornerstone of Indian nationhood; Secularism. Since Indian independence the political leadership of the Congress took pains not to make religion the subject of public conversation more so as it struggled to create a legislative framework to cater the communal traditions of different groups. It was felt in the end a modern India, through education and demands of nationhood would absorb the demands of tradition from religious groups. 

However as much as there was a galvanising effect of this thrust towards modernity and most Hindus were comfortable with the emerging idiom of a secular India there were other forces at work. To these 'nationalist' forces the BJP afforded the opportunity to recast India under a new narrative of modernity by a revisionist dogma which implied rewriting India's history. It started with a move to remain cities, Madras became Chennai, Bombay became Mumbai and so forth. As benign an act of rewriting history, (way or five decades of independence) it spelled bigger issues. 

The Hindutva dogma also sought to rewrite Indian history and recast the 200 odd years of Muslim rule. Side by side the hundreds of years old problem of religious sites and the contest of their origin came to the forefront bringing with it a sense amongst the Muslims of India (the largest minority) that they were being marginalised. Sanitising history is a political sense is inevitable and India is not the first country to do this. However, when this sanitisation begins to define what one religions sees as right then a sense of marginalisation is the obvious result. In a general sense any religious complexion that overtake the political ethos of a country by its nature then defines who, in a religious sense, is a good person and who is not. (This is the essential struggle in Pakistan, of which a separate blog will appear). 

In fairness in India there are a multitude of political participants, Hindus. Muslims, Sikhs, who have played the religious card in their politics. In some cases this has been play to religious and communal similarities, in other cases, it has been a message of discord and fear. Invariably where the fear card has been played it has resulted in communal hate and exclusion and in some cases even violence. Even Mr Modi, the current Prime Minister, in one period of his political journey used the communal hate card with good effect. However, to use these episodes as a pretext for exclusion of minorities is nothing but a pretext for furthering the larger agenda of Hindutva. 

There is no denying today within India secularism and nationalism, as defined by the Hindu extreme nationalists, are locked in battle. It is not possible that a polity defined by a nationalist Hindu agenda can sit side by side with the semblance of secularism. For secularism to gain ground will mean a reversal of the religious sanitisation that has been going on, for both the Mahabharata and the Muslim, Sikh and Christian teaching to be a part of the school curriculum , for Indians to take pride in their collective history rather than only segments of it. To acknowledge that secularism in India and secularism in a democracy have divide that needs to be bridged, which implies the rolling back of the religious narrative in politics and the emergence of individuals and their own choices to be the determinants of the complexion of a nations secular ethos.