Tractors and Tweets Test India

 India has for long championed itself as the worlds largest democracy and through most of the past eight decades it has tried to frame and shape its democratic principles. From the outside many of us in Asia have looked at Indian democracy with a blend of admiration ( Indira Ghandi’s removal) and at times shock (the revocation of Kashmiri state status) but we felt with its strong press and an independent judicial system India would continue to stumble along on the road of democracy, not a perfect road but not a washed out road. Much like the polarisation we have seen the world over India in the past decade or so has embraced a political flavour which is disturbing. Prime Minister Narendra Modi has moulded  his BJP party in the shape of a nationalist (mainly Hindu) agenda and strong arm tactics within the party resulting in a direction to India’s democracy that can only be concerning to many.

When Modi’s government changed the special status of Indian held Kashmir and revoked Article 370 of the Indian constitution the protests were limited to Indian held Kashmir. A total lockdown of Kashmir, arrests of its leaders and various other draconian measures were largely ignored by the world community. India’s proactive diplomatic presence and a general apathy towards the Kashmiri people assured Modi’s government that it’s Kashmir strategy will not be opposed on the world scene. 

Modi, assured of his parliamentary majority and his iron fist control on his party then moved to pass three new Farm Laws which have resulted in the largest protests ever witnessed. The new laws are seen by Indian farmers, mostly from the Punjab and Haryana, as handing over the purchasing of agricultural produce to private corporates, who the farmers feel will manipulate the prices to drive farmers into bankruptcy. With small holdings most farmers have been struggling for decades and their only assurance of survival has been the minimum price mechanism which the Modi government wants to abolish. 

Through 250 years of Indian history rural India has been organised through ‘panchayats’, village based cooperatives, and this system has been vital in how farmers have lobbied for this interests and protected their fragile agricultural economy. While collectively the agricultural economy of India is massive, but given the fragmented land holdings individual farmers have always felt at the bottom of the ladder. However, the panchayat system gave them some comfort and protection. The fact that the Modi government did not consult with the panchayats and simply rammed the new laws through parliament not only shows their arrogance but this confidence that like the Kashmir issue this too will be accepted.

Estimates are that over 250 million people are involved in the protests by the farmers and these protesters have attracted world attention. The Indian government reaction to the protects has been high handed and resulted in over 167 deaths as of this writing. Hundreds of journalists have been arrested and celebrities who have spoken in favour of the farmers threatened with legal action. While it remains a showdown between the government and the protesters Modi’s gambit is that the farmers will eventually tire in their protests and they will return to their villages. Given the depth and breadth of the protests it is more likely this protests will not abate too soon unless the laws are repealed or seriously amended to meet the farmers demands.

On a broader level the treatment of the farmers by the Indian government is shameful and its handling not only of the protests but the journalists and others who support the farmers with their voice is disturbing. Journalists have disappeared and draconian measures are taken every day without any concern for censure. India has reacted to the international condemnation by insisting this is an internal affair. No India cannot aspire to be a regional and world power and when it suits you insist it’s an internal affair. Indian farmers are facing the worst possible hardships and these laws will set the stage for their demise and people have to speak out against the Indian government measures against the farmers. This is India’s moment to do the right thing rather than simply pretend that it’s the world’s largest democracy as it trampled upon 250 million farmers. 

COVID 9: Why some countries did better?

 A year has gone by and the devastating impact of the Covid pandemic is still going on with over 100 million infections worldwide and over 2.1 million deaths we know the pandemic is far from over. The pandemic, from its source of origin, its widespread infections across the globe, to the debate over how best to combat it remains an ever present topic of our daily lives. As the roll out of various possible vaccines occurs the virus, to make its point, surges ahead in a third wave which, with reported new variants of the Covid 19 virus, reminds us the battle is far from over.

Eventually the human race will over come this deadly virus, whether through its myriad of strategies and vaccines or the virus will just mutate itself into non existence, as did SARS, remains to be seen. A year down the deadly combat with this virus it seems less likely that self mutation of the virus into non existence is a possibility. Yet we have to wonder why some countries fared better than others. 

We can look at the statistical data and come to various conclusions but the debate then gets furious as we can argue about how the death rates are determined, the relationship of testing to over all performance, the importance of recovery rates, and hospitalisation rate to positive test ratios. Either way we see it on a statistical basis countries the USA, UK, Italy, and Brazil do not come out well on the death per million criteria. Same is true for infections per million where the USA fares the worst (78,000) but India comes in with only 111 per million, highlighting that testing is important as India has only tested 13% of its population compared to the US which has 91% tests including repeat tests. Some countries like UAE have crossed 242% tests as a result of strict internal testing protocols resulting in repeat tests. Israel, Australia Iceland and Denmark have all shown over 100% test numbers following the dictum that till you do not test you don’t know the impact of the virus.

However, data is a bit confusing as some countries with high testing still have high death rates compared to others who show that high testing resulted in better identification of the spread and resulted in lower death rates. In some cases the death rate only applies to people who died within 28 days after testing positive thus ignoring people who may have died from complications arising from COVID-19 after the 28 days as is the case in UK. Thus one can argue the UK numbers are understated. 

Moving away from the debate over the statistical data one can appreciate that while no single strategy can be earmarked as successful in the fight against  the COVID-19 virus it is clearly evident that both macro and micro strategies in combination achieved a higher level of success. 

New Zealand is highlighted as a country that has successfully contained the virus thus far. Admittedly with a smaller population of 5 million some would argue it could have been easier to tackle the pandemic. Indeed a smaller population in an island country is an advantage but still the country has a few major cities with concentration of the population and to record only 25,000 cases with only 25 deaths is remarkable. Testing is high, 300% test rate, but then a lot of things were done right from the beginning.

One of the strongest factors for New Zealand was and is its leadership under Prime Minister Jacinda Arden. A key factor was communication and transparency by the prime minister herself leading the daily briefings and in a very personal style calling the 5 million people “the team” that will fight the virus. This created a togetherness with the community and backed with honest communication the harder measures were understood and accepted by New Zealanders. Last year in mid March a strict lockdown was imposed across the country with social distancing and masking compulsory when the lockdowns were eased. A state of the art contact tracing was implemented and where localised outbreaks happened curfews and lockdowns in those areas followed. The contact tracing was believed to be so good that in one case the virus was tracked to a garbage bin in a particular neighbourhood!

Indeed a complete lockdown and no entry or exit from the country all had a massive economic impact on the economy but the calculation  was that  30 to 60 days of strict measures will allow a return to normalcy faster that otherwise. This proved right and by July of last year a graduated return to normal life was seen and now with the second surge the measures from the start showed the protocols were robust. In New Zealand’s case a central policy was possible from the prime ministers office unlike say in the United States where a federal policy cannot apply uniformly in all 50 states, even though there are ways to invoke an emergency nation wide. 

The case of Africa as a whole is  more interesting with 17% of the world population only 3.5 m cases have been reported with 87,043 deaths. One could argue that low testing levels (South Africa is the highest with 13%) suggests less detection of cases. But then death rates in general on the African continent have not gone up suggesting that impact on the over all death rate since the pandemic started is negligible. It is possible that given the past experience to pandemics like Ebola some countries in Africa were better prepared and while testing may not have been widespread at ports of entry the measures were strict. In the case of Nigeria, for instance, a strict lockdown was imposed a couple of weeks before the first case was reported. Researchers also suggest that given the average age of the population to be a low 18 years, resilience to the virus could be better. (In Germany the average age of population is 40 years). An additional factor could well be that a large proportion of the population spend their time outdoors thereby reducing the spread of the virus.

The United Arab Emirates was also one of the countries that showed a remarkable response to the virus. With a population of 9.7 million it acted quickly to force a lockdown and for a few weeks a nightly curfew  during which period streets and public places were disinfected regularly. While limited flights in and out were allowed there were protocols for testing and tracing. Masking and social distancing were quickly implemented and remain in force even a year later. While in December 2020 there has been an uptick in the numbers it has been accompanied by higher recoveries and mass roll out of vaccinations. 

Across Asia results of strategies against the virus vary. China, given its highly centralised government, initially may not have been forth coming about its numbers, even though it was quick to share the genetic structure of the virus with scientists around the world, it nevertheless enforced a total curfew in Wuhan, the source of the virus, and across much of China. It’s contact tracing systems remain one of the best and it would seem they have contained the virus. Mass roll out of their vaccine has been going on for a couple of months and cooperation with other countries is in the rise. South Korea, Taiwan, Vietnam and Japan all have fared better then their western counterparts as their is a better level of acceptance of government policies on the pandemic. In addition face masks have been long accepted in some of these societies since over two decades which could explain why infection rates were relatively low in their countries even though lockdowns were not that severe. 

Elsewhere in Asia both India and Pakistan seem still to develop a comprehensive strategy against the pandemic. Low levels of testing, 13% and 3.4% respectively suggests either a lack of resources or willingness to examine the extent of the pandemic. With the availability of the vaccine both governments seem to follow a strategy of vaccinations to cover as many people as they can. Mask wearing has been only successful in a limited sense and mass gatherings have not been curtailed. It would seem their best bet is in the vaccine now with a acceptance that the vaccine may prevent the spread of the virus as government policy was an abysmal failure.

In the West the United Kingdom and the United States both present interesting case studies. 

In the UK the strategy has been a mixed confusion of decisions aimed to sound politically correct and the resulting measures have been ill conceived and ineffective. A year ago the government tried to calm nerves by insisting they had a strategy in place when in fact all Boris Johnson wanted was to avoid a lockdown that would effect the economy. Measure like social distancing and face masks were more suggestions then mandatory policies. Contact tracing was considered a violation of civil liberties and never really implemented. The NHS was not given the equipment and resources in time to deal with the first wave of infections and a year on some doctors complain of shortages of key supplies. 

When lockdowns did finally c9me into place, some ten months into the pandemic, they were tiered into different levels, a good thing, but then no testing for people moving from one tier to the other. The government has tried to be transparent but is briefings seem to just present the statistics but not explain the effect of the measures and why some are working and some are not. Ministers who have appeared in the media have not been able to defend  their policy and worse not been able to answer the most basic questions.

The United States response, for a leading western nation, has been far short of any expectations. A lack of leadership was compounded by the politicalisation of the Covid 19 issue with the then President, Donald Trump, not taking the lead to fight the pandemic. No effort was made to make social distancing and face masks a policy priority so much so that the President himself did not wear masks and encouraged events that contributed to the spread of the virus. Politics rather than science governed the response and supporters of the President took pride in not wearing the mask. 

Given the size of the country and the complex demographics one would have expected more coordinated policies between the various states under a federal government umbrella. States like New York and California while implementing reasonably sound strategies the lack of a national policy on testing inter state travel or have contact tracing meant that efforts of state governments were constantly eroded. Perhaps the greatest short  coming in the United States was not only the lack of transparency but the conspiracy theories about the virus and misinformation from the highest levels of public office. 

In conclusion the following are the lessons we have learned thus far from the way various countries have responded to the virus.

• Quick and early governmental action on lockdowns, face masks and social distancing.
• Honest and transparent communication on the virus, the measures being taken and possible outcomes. Such communication directly from the head of government and senior ministers was essential in building trust.
• Establishing a social mandate of trust and confidence with the community.
• Follow the science and not the politics.
• Establishing contact tracing so that the spread of the virus can be monitored and then contained.
• Widen the testing regime.
• Where a tier system of lockdowns are implemented testing of people moving between different tiers  to be obligatory.
• International travel to be eased in phased manner between countries with similar success rate in fighting the pandemic.
• As vaccinations roll put so too should the state of preparedness be improved as most likely a new variant of the Covid-19 will emerge or in a few years a new coronavirus will spread.

 

 

The Biden Presidency: the challenges

 Joe Biden’s Presidency commences at a moment of US history where it’s social and political fabric has pretty much been shredded through the divisive creed and politics of hate of the last four years. Donald Trump leaves the White House in the back drop of a violent insurrection he purportedly inflamed and epitomises the legacy of Trump as a narcissist, egotist to whom his own survival matters the most. The road ahead for the Biden administration is not going to be easy as the United States faces some unique challenges, some created by the Trump presidency, others resulting from global issues. Joe Biden has tried to talk positively on the issues and yet tempered expectations knowing that the challenges ahead are enormous.

While technocrats will welcome the Biden presidency as it might be return to process and plann8ng in tackling some of the key issues. The challenges for Joe Biden can best be summed up as :

Covid-19 response.

In as much as the COVID-19 pandemic and the way the Trump administration handled it was their undoing, how Joe Biden tackles this enormous threat will define the seriousness of his tenure. While Trump can be partially thanked for one of the two vaccines that have come out the lack of a cohesive response to the pandemic by the Trump team is the legacy that Biden inherits. On the one hand is the logistic challenge of getting the vaccines out to the American public there is the more touchy issue that many Americans, mostly Trump diehards, will refuse the vaccine. 

Vaccines alone will not roll back the pandemic and measures such as masking and social distancing, including selective lock downs will need to be considered. With close to 400,000 dead the impact of this pandemic has been devastating, therefore, building trust and acceptance into any plan that Biden has is vital. On a broader front the economic impact of the pandemic needs to be addressed more comprehensively. Biden has already announced a $1.9 trillion relief package which certainly will be welcomed but this is really a first significant step to a broader solution to the economic imp@ct of the pandemic.

The Economy.

The state of the US economy is far from healthy, whether due to the ravages of the Covid 19 pandemic or some misplaced economic  policies the reality is that US public debt is at an all time high, unemployment is rising and in the face of a global slow down it is clear that for Biden and his team the economy is going to be a major challenge. Indeed prior to the pandemic the employment data was very healthy and in step with the trend of the past eight odd years. Had the pandemic not over taken events it is unclear whether Trumps tax breaks, increased government borrowing and the trade war with China would in the end result in a better economy. 

For the Biden administration while providing the stimulus to the economy and helping Americans with one time payments seems a priority. However, they need to see further down the road and draw up an economic plan that restores health to the economy. Reigning in the debt is not going to be easy as initially further public debt will be needed to kick start the economy. It is unlikely that the trade war with China will be rolled back in one sweep and Biden may want to use the leverage of a roll back to have a reset in trade relations to be more balanced. 

Charter of Trust with American Society.

One of the most important tasks for the Biden administration will be to rebuild trust within American society. One of the legacies of the Trump presidency has been his strategy to create and alternate narrative that rejects any fact that does not please him and to advance a militant nationalism embedded into a segment of his supporters who will not see facts other than the way Trump wants to. The recent attack in the Capitol highlights this alternate agenda and its far reaching consequences for US politics.  

The social divisions are glaring and racism is an issue as is political violence. Social reforms may achieve a better standard of health care, education and justice but uniting the country and creating a more tolerant society are going to be considerable challenges. One would imagine that with Trump no more the President some of the fuel to the fire of divisiveness will die down. However Trump will do everything to try and remain relevant and it would do the Biden administration good to ignore citizen Trump.

On a broader front the Biden platform has been put together with the support of the progressive elements of the Democratic Party and they have expectations of their own. Managing those expectations is going to be a challenge, however, it is more likely that Biden’s social and economic policies will be more in line with the progressive agenda. Building confidence in state institutions and the process of democracy will be a bigger challenge. America is a currently a fractured society and it’s the healing of its soul that is the biggest task ahead.

Obituary: Irfan Husain.

 I first met Irfan Husain in the early 1970s when he was courting my eldest sister, Ferida Sher, his first wife and mother to his only child Shakir. We lived on our farm and it was in the summer during the wheat harvest that this well spoken man turned up at the farm. Whether he was being polite or serious he offered to help in the harvest and my brother, Moody, and I planned to have the city boy carry the 50 kg bags of wheat up onto the loading ramp. We both wanted to put Irfan to the test and next day were surprised to see Irfan turn up at 6 AM knowing his offer was perhaps sincere to build a relationship with us. 

Irfan ended up driving the harvester and in the hot summer sun of Lahore he fared well putting in six hours of bone jarring driving. He offered with the wheat bags but we told him we had it under control. In short Irfan seemed good enough for the first test. A few weeks later he walked upon us axing away at guava trees as we pruned the guava orchid, Irfan being Irfan offered to help and after an hour of hacking with an axe my brother and I realised our sister would not be impressed with blisters on her bridegroom’s hands. Both Moody and I concluded Irfan was a cool guy, he did not talk down to us on account of his education and intelligence and certainly deserved a warm welcome. 

A few months later we had an amazing wedding in the farm, we spent weeks cutting trees and stacking them in a large field near the house and after the formalities of the wedding we lit a bon fire that actually was still smouldering a few days later. At some point of the night Irfan walked up to us brothers and thanked us saying  that  it was a “lovely gesture of the bonfire that made it all special”. 

Later as I finished my Masters in Islamabad Irfan and my sister were in the same city and I got to see more of Irfan and we often talked of politics and books. I was then writing for Viewpoint and Irfan always had some good advice and perspective that I appreciated. Sometimes he would simply ask if I had read a particular book or article usually we would have a discussion that followed. 

Irfan was a gentle soul and while not overtly emotional he was in a quiet way sensitive about all that happened around him. Later when my sister and Irfan divorced there was no drama and both seemed to focus on their son Shakir and giving him the best of both parents. The fact that Shakir turned out to be a fine man is a testimony to the care and concern of both parents not to burden their son with the weight a divorce. Irfan remained Irfan Bhai within our household and till his final days my elder sister (not the one who was married to Irfan) would give me twice a day updates on Irfan Bhai. 

When Shakir worked with me in Abu Dhabi, Irfan visited me and it was lovely seeing him. My only regret remains that it was at a time I was experimenting with micro wave cooking and the meal I prepared was perhaps the worst ever with the meat as hard as leather. Irfan politely chewed his way, painfully, through the evening putting aside my apologies. I promised myself that when Irfan came around next I would prepare him a perfect meal, needless to say that evenings meal remains the last I ever used a micro wave for. 

Sadly we never got to meet again but barring a call some years back I got regular news on Irfan from his son and my sisters. I also was an avid reader of his columns in Dawn and enjoyed his perspective on things. While I may not have agreed with his views all the time I admired his conviction and courage to express them. Irfan was always true to his beliefs which was a welcome quality in a country like Pakistan were journalists with conviction bore the brunt of governments not very tolerant of men who wielded a pen. 

Rest in Peace Irfan, you had a good innings and enriched the lives of many, you will always be remembered fondly and when we meet on the other side I will cook you the meal I planned, sans the micro wave.

The Future of the Republican Party.

 Presidents come and go but their political parties live on is an apt dictum based upon history. However in the aftermath of the 2020 election and in the backdrop of Donald Trump’s presidency that historical dictum has been scuttled to the bottom of the lake for the Republican Party. The biggest reason for this is the rise of Trumpism and a cult around the persona of President Trump; a cult not in the strain of Reaganism, which was political direction that Republicans embraced, but a cult of negativism and division which, in the end analysis, will hurt the Republican Party. 

The Trump effect on the GOP sin terms of new voters and herding in the marginalised white non college educated voters was immense. These are referred to as the MAGA base upon which Trump rests his political leverage. It is suggested that they form a sizeable chunk of 30 million voters out of the 70 million voters who cast their lot with Trump in the 2020 election. This is a key vote bank that Trump feels he personally controls and is a mix of rural segments, white nationalists, older generation voters, evangelicals  and ultra conservatives. Trump has been able to use this base to marshall GOP politicians into his camp knowing that these congressmen cannot afford to lose support of the MAGA crowd. 

Trump has played with the idea of a 2024 run for the highest office and while he continues to  election results he has raised a sizeable war chest of money, most of it under his own control, extending a mystery as to his intentions. Unlike previous Presidents Donald Trump’s motive to remain politically relevant is a function of him seeking some form of political insurance in the face of possible legal cases that could emerge once he is out of office. Alternatively Trump enthused by the power of the Presidency would like to Conte a career in politics even though rarely have ex Presidents sought office a after losing an election. 

While Mr Trumps political ambitions are best known to himself he must certainly be encouraged by his MAGA support which may well be behind the rumoured bid for public office by his daughter Ivanka. Given his narcissist nature he would be tempted to wield this power over a significant portion of the Republican Party and therefore we would see his influence on display at least for the a year or two after he leaves office.

For the core Republican Party there is hope that once out of office Mr Trump will lose relevance and perhaps influence on the party. They would also hope that a number of the 126 congressmen who went along with Mr Trumps challenge to the election results would return to the fold of the party. The likes of Mitt Romney and others like him would like to steer the party away from Trumpism and their focus will likely be on the changing demographics of the US population. It is estimated that by 2024 almost 55% of US voters will be millennials and what is known as the generation Z, all coming from a diverse ethnic mix. These younger voters have a more liberal outlook and their priorities revolve around housing, jobs and social equity in the economic system.

The Democrats have caught on to this effect and a number of their congressmen were voted on on a progressive platform; an agenda that is confusingly called socialist when in fact it is more akin to the social democratic movement we have seen in Europe. The think tank within the GOP is aware that changing demographics are going to be a major challenge for their party and Trumpism, while increasing the size of their vote bank in 2020, was also responsible for a larger turnout for Biden amongst the very voter profile that will be significantly larger in 2024. 

Post Trumps presidency their are likely to be tensions between the core of the Republican Party and Trump and he will try and wield his MAGA card to control the party. One may question to what purpose? Perhaps to position a presidential bid in 2024 or promote his daughters political ambitions or to create a caucus loyal to him within the party! The problem for the GOP is not only Trumps desire to be politically relevant but he does hold over $200 m he raised post election, ostensibly to pay for the court battles to over turn the election results. If the GOP resists Trumps bid to continue to lead the Republican Party there is a high probability that Donald Trump will launch his own MAGA party. 

This is a nightmare scenario for the Republican Party and in the broader context remove any serious challenge to the Democrats in the next election in 2024. While political theorists may welcome the emergence for a third political party of significance within the USA in  the short term it will benefit the Democrats. Should a third party emerge under the patronage of Trump it will leave the Republican Party seriously depleted in the short term. However, it will force the GOP to reinvent itself to appeal more to the new segments of voters entering the electoral rolls in America. One may also assume eventually a MAGA party will lose relevance even though this may take a decade or so, till which time it will remain a nuisance on the political landscape. 

While Trump, in 2015 hijacked the Republican Party, in 2020 he is setting the stage to mould it into the direction only he wishes, failing which, he is willing to let it implode. He draws strength from the cultist support of the MAGA crowd and knows if he has to seize permanent control of the Republican Party he needs more like minded congressmen and not just politicians who favour his brand of politics because they fear his wrath. This is why it is more likely that Trumps newly raised money will be important for him to seek the allegiances he desires. 

On a final note it is highly likely that Trump bogged down by legal cases, some of which were put on hold given his position has President, and a strong move to disfranchise him from the Republican Party may just result in his withdrawal from public or political life. While this is what may eventually happen but it is more than likely that it will be a long drawn process bringing with it considerable anguish to die hard Republicans. In the coming months this drama will play out with the gusto and hyperbole we expect of Mr. Trump, as he asserts he didn’t lose the election and to prove it he would want to win the Republican Party.

King Trump: Unravelled.

 If Donald Trump had to choose a character from history he would probably love to be King Henry VIII, a demagogue with absolute power who expected nothing less that totally fealty from his advisors and subordinates. His demand for total submission extended to his personal life and was not averse to executing those of his wives he felt had been disloyal to him. While Trump has not gone that far he does have an uncanny similarity to the way King Henry banished his closest advisors when they disagreed with him.

Trumps transition from business life, where he was, by and large, the sole decision maker, to public office, where consensus and cooperation are essential, was never really complete. For those who wished him to succeed in the role of the President of the United States and had secretly hoped that he would internally acknowledge his lack of experience in public office and embrace counsel and advice there has been nothing but disappointment. His first assertion that his inauguration crowd was bigger than Obama’s inauguration crowd, while a total fabrication, was seen as Trump being Trump. Few could imagine that this compulsive propensity to lie would become a hallmark of his presidency. 

Unlike King Henry VIII, President Trump had to contend with a free press and media which would, like it has done with all in office, question his decisions and actions. While the route to execute those in the press who he saw as critics was not available to Trump, (which King Henry would have done), the best course for Trump was to continually label the press as fake media. The more he called the main steam media as fake the less was the possibility that his base would believe the media even when the media was right. Rather than send the likes of CNN to the gallows, which King Henry would have ordered, Trump executed their credibility, at least within his own base. 

This relentless assault on the media was never aimed to win them over but to discredit them in the eyes of his base of largely non college educated White people to the point that he and his core supporters could then plant any conspiracy in their minds and it would be believed even when facts indicated otherwise. Today after an election loss Trump can claim the election is rigged even though his own government’s various offices have confirmed it was the most secure election in US history. In classical terms this is brainwashing the audience to the point of blindness and has been the signature of autocratic regimes. In the wash of this brainwashing, whether coincidental or not, quite a few well placed Republicans have taken the mantle of the Trump dogma with a fervour of being more loyal than the King. 

Character always shows it complete spectrum when we are faced with the adversity of a loss. Today, after a loss in the election, President Trump is less presidential and more of King Trump battling to not surrender the throne he sees as only his and only to be passed to his kith and kin, (his reference to his daughter or son being deserving to contest the election one day). King Trump feels besieged within the White House as he broods his last gasp moves to survive, much like King Henry was beleaguered after being excommunicated by Pope Clement VII. King Henry broke with the papal church and declared himself the head of the Church of England and converting the money paid to Rome into Royal Revenue for his personal gain. Gratefully for the United States there is a Constitution, Congress and a Supreme Court alongside the media and close to 80 million people who voted against him.

Trump still has 73 million Americans who voted for him and about 15 million of them are his die hard MAGA supporters. King Trump knows that losing the throne in the Oval Office may be a disaster in many respects yet he does leave with some leverage over the Republican Party. Secretly he must also wish that should he be prosecuted for illegalities the radical white supremacists could well come out to defend his name and honour. While within the core of the Republican Party there will be an effort to rid their ranks of Trumpism it is more likely that this election defeat will effect Trump in a way that he will shun ever contesting public office. In the end he never likes losing and the label of a loser is something he threw on many who got his disfavour.

As the days of the Trump presidency draw to a close one must be sure that Trump will follow a scorched earth policy. He aim will be to leave the  Biden administration with as many bushfires as possible, both domestic and foreign. The lack of cooperation on a transition effects policy, the pandemic, the economy and national security.  In foreign relations one would not be surprised some military action is ordered by Trump leaving Biden with war flames to extinguish. This is how King Trump thinks; if  I cannot live in the house I will burn it down. 

There is a less painful way out of this and that would be to invoke the 25th Amendment and remove Trump on the basis he is incapacitated. It has been almost twelve days since he has done any presidential work, instead brooding, watching TV, playing golf or tweeting. Those who saw through the facade know that Trump started his tenure with a lie about the crowd at his inauguration and ends it with a lie that he won the election. This, sadly, may well be the only thing we eventually remember about King Trump, while to his MAGA crowd he will remain a cult hero who gave a voice to the Proud Boys and the white suprematists.

Trump and Trumpism post election.

 Irrespective of the noise of fraud from Trump his loss of the White House is inevitable. However, while Trump may eventually vacate the Oval Office his brand of politics, loosely labelled as Trumpism, will continue to have an impact on US politics. Other than a hyperbolic slogan of making America great again, the substance to Trumpism revolves around Trump himself. Core Republicans must cringe at the way their party has been hijacked by Donald Trump to such an extent that in the 2020 election the GOP platform was simply to re-elect Trump.

The impact of Trump has a significance for Americans, both who support him and those who oppose him, in a more deeper sense than we realise. His racist bias, his persona of demeaning those who oppose him and seeking a personal loyalty add to what we already knew Trump to be, a self centred businessman who had a propensity to say the unsayable and walk over anybody to attain his goals. When, in 2015, he burst in the political scene few believed he had any chance. Then Trump started with attacking Mexicans, Muslims, and the immigration policies which initially were seen as attention seeking gimmicks. Credit to Trump he knew what he was doing; all he needed was the media to pick up his comment on prime time. He way saying things that a progressively disfranchised white non college educated working class felt but never said. He blamed China for their job losses, and the climate change policies for the contraction of work in the heartland of America. It did not matter if it was true or not but here was a man who spoke what they wanted to hear and for full measure Trump embraced the evangelical Christians to drive the pint home that he was their chosen saviour.

The very media that Trump labels as fake were the ones to promote his rise for them to only realise that monster had been let out of the cage. The racist bias of Trumps message was not an accidental slip, it was meant to create a base amongst the white supremacists who mostly came from his base of non college educated whites. Trump was unconventional in presidency because this language of tweeting and three minute attention spam is what suited him. Silently however he did what the stalwarts of the Republican Party could not do, namely, he created a base of die hard supporters. However, these are not supporters of the GOP but his own cadre if supporters. 

Looking ahead Trump out of the White House does not necessarily mean that he will fade into presidential retirement and has vaguely hinted at a run for the president in 2024. What we do know is that Trump is unpredictable and while he may be sending out feelers he is energised by his base who in turn feed off his rhetoric in equal measure. The role and place that Donald Trump will have in America’s political scene depends on many factors and the possible outcomes are quite intriguing and complex.

Once out of power Trumps hold of the Republican Party will be tested and some segments of the party may work to distance themselves from him. In contrast Trump, backed by his energised base, may continue to wield influence on the direction of the party and also work to position himself as the candidate for 2024. Senior senators like Lindsay Graham and Mitch McConnell are aware of Trumps hold on his base which could account for 20% of the Republican vote bank of 2020. Trump for his part will continue to try and command the attention of the public whether through his own media company or continuing his social media presence, even if the larger American audience pays attention or not. In that sense Trump will perhaps be a disruptive force for the Republicans who earnestly feel that in the last five years he has steered the party into a swamp where it lacks political substance and its infrastructure demolished in the face of Trumps nepotism and promotion of sycophants.

There is a more real prospect of Donald Trump slipping into the muddy waters of legal cases, some of which could be criminal in nature, and his erosion of power could result in a massive push back from die hard Republicans who balk at Trumpism and its impact on American political conscious.  It is most likely that Mr Trump will face a mounting financial crisis, legal cases and this would effect his ability to position his political destiny. Some have suggested that if spurned by the Republican Party he may consider creating his own political party. While this may be an option Trump would prefer the reality has that given his financial issues he may not have the resources for such a venture.

As the Trump days at the White House come to a close one has to wonder what Trumpism really means. His base would simply say Making America Great Again, which really means nothing more than a slogan.  To these die hard supporters he spoke for them, even of he ignored their well being and at the fringes he flirted with white supremacists hugging them into a form of political acceptance they never witnessed before. The vagueness of Trumps political positions on issues of race, women and white supremacy have always left him wiggle room to avoid the direct questions. His genius has been that he can make the odd comment that his is not a fascist or racist and almost in the same breath call the white supremacists very fine people. Being questioned by enlightened journalists or the elitist middle class about his misogynist and racist remarks does not bother him because he knows his base embraces his rhetoric. As he once said they would forgive him if he shot someone in Times Square, and forgive him they have; for his sexist remarks about women, for his racism against Mexicans and Muslims and his calls to lock up those who oppose him. This is the base that will not change its support for him and any intelligent expose on Trumps failures is labelled fake news. 

The challenge will be if Trumpism will survive and prosper after Trump? The simple answer it depends on the fate of Trump as a man. While he would like to hold on to the influence on the party the reality of facing debt repayments and legal actions we may have a very angry man melting into oblivion. Should he weather these challenges then perhaps we have to accept that Trumpism will continue to have  an influence on the American politics. The question is whether this will be of major consequence or not?

As a closing note viewing all this drama from abroad one wonders if Americans, especially those in his base will ever realise the lasting damage one man has done to the political fabric of the country. How could rudeness, the lack of decorum and decency be celebrated much less accepted from the office of the President of the United States will continue to haunt people who have been accustomed to much better. While his MAGA crowd will see Trump with admiration few outside that circle would disagree that it was a historic low for the Oval Office.