The Mumbai Massacre

The taking of any life, according to my personal belief, is a cardinal sin, and neither war, nor 'jihad' nor anything can justify this to me. The Mumbai Massacre, the 9/11 incident, the killing of Palestinians, Iraqi's, Afghans and anyone in the world all fall within my definition of senseless murder. It is sad testimony that in this day and age we cannot sit across the table and sort things out and have to resort to this mayhem. The Mumbai Massacre will be tainted by many different connotations but none of these will bring back the people who died and their only fault was to be there at that time.

Sadly the terrible incident will be colored in the light of the tense political relationship between Pakistan and India, and people will forget that Pakistani's too face the wrath of this terrible mayhem and any Pakistani who had a sense of empathy will feel the pain of what the Indian nation has gone through. It is a time to heal and it is a time for people to educate themselves on the scourge of this hate that is falsely using the name of Islam, which actually is a very tolerant religion, to spread hate and death.

Terrorism does not have a face and it does not rely on the conveinence of borders, so it does not matter if one or all of the attackers in Mumbai were Pakistani or from wherever. These same people could just as easily have attacked a hotel in Karachi as they did in Mumbai. What people have to understand, appreciate and act upon is a common sense of loss and bring about an understanding of why these people have such hate and what can be done to deal with it.

Indian reaction internally will test their dogma of secularism and indeed some Indian Muslims will become the target of a form of internal exclusion and suspicion that will fall upon them. It would be in the interest of peace that such recriminations are not directed towards the Muslims, Pakistani or anyone in general terms. This was not a communal, religious or state act, it was the work of some misguided people who have been led to believe that their means are justified for the ills they feel they have suffered.

Underlying these sort of events bring about the urgency for people to settle their differences and bring about peace in their communities. People have said this is India's 9/11, I hope India does not react in the way the US acted when the 9/11 act happened to them. It is not the solution that would achieve anything, and while the people behind such an attack should be brought to justice it also implies that a better understanding of how to tackle the mind of these youth is needed. I have argued, even in my book soon to be published, that the battle that is going on is not on battlefields or a war for land, it is a battle for the minds of the next generation of our youth. It is here that we have to win the argument.

UAE and the Global Financial Crisis

The financial markets around the world have taken a massive beating, but certainly not the first and certainly not the last. However, as with all such situations of extreme volatility the human mind loses perspective and we begin to forget the context and scope of what exactly is happening. I lived through the Stock Market crash of 1987 and was then trading in the financial markets and saw, one Monday afternoon, everything go red on the screen. It was ofcourse scary to say the least but in months the market had gradually crawled back to not only its former levels but then took off on a barraging bull run through the 1990's. Look at a stock market price chart of the past 30 years and that evening when my heart stopped still is only evidenced by a small jagged little line going down to then rise and leave a small tick mark. I call it the tick mark from the ultimate teacher of financial wisdom; the market itself, which told me I learned something.

I will share what I learned. Crises will come and go; not long ago the Asian Contaignation was seen as the Arrmageddon the financial system as we know it, today people have to stretch their mind to remember what it was. The current crisis is a combination of silly deregulation of the mortgage markets in the US and the abandoned lending of the banks to people who could not afford what they were buying. However, what took the toll was when banks wanted to switch these mortgages into securitized paper (called sub prime paper) and this ofcourse was bought by banks. When accounting rules did not allow this paper to be not marked to market the banks suddenly realized they were holding onto to something that was not that valuable after all. (A dummy version of explaining this). The ensuing concern on the worth of the banks clearly began to hurt their profits and in essence made the world stand up and wonder what was really the true worth if the financial system.

Just prior to the adjustments that took place in the market values, the banking system had been leveraged to around 11 to 12 times the equity base needed to support it. Typically this leverage is around seven times and thus a correction was overdue in any case. Now you will wonder what all this has to do with the UAE market or indeed the GCC market?

Indeed there is some interdependence of financial markets and what happens in New York will have an effect on UAE, Singapore and in small measure to some small Balkan country too. The question is what should be the extent of this impact?

First of all the UAE and GCC banking systems exposure to the sub prime market was negligible in consideration of their size of the domestic banks. In addition none of the local banks were in anyways involved in heavy overseas lending. Yes property markets were a bit over heated and prices has rocketed up and to some extent the argument of supply and demand was being using too often to justify over 100% returns on real estate. Yes there is a strong demand for housing, and my estimate is that this is about 38,000 homes currently needed with an additional 12,000 per year for the next five to seven years. Yes loads of projects have been announced but those nearing completion and fullfiling this demand are few.

Secondly the real estate market had moved up on the back of speculators who chose to put down 3 to 5% on a property and then flipped it to another investor till finally the end user was paying over 40 to 60% more than he could have by buying direct from the developer. So in essence alot of paper profits were being created for middle men who didn't do more than merely be at the right place at the right time with their check book ofcourse.

Thirdly those investors who are serious and hold property for longer than a few weeks or months have the money even today, and for them an opportunity has been created.

What is likely to happen? First I believe people will realize that the market is being talked down more than it should. Second there is no doubt some prices had gone up too much and the greed factor for the developers was too much. These people will have to realize that construction prices have come down and at the same time their is a need to price the projects better and the sales prices too. I foresee developers who will look for say 20% maximum profit and target the end user there is likely to me more joy than headache.

The financial system of the UAE is strong and UAE, especially Abu Dhabi has the firepower to remedy any glitches in the need for money in an instant. Yes the will to do so has to be there, and this is ofcourse going to be tested from time to time. For the moment and based on my experience here it is highly unlikely that UAE will be allowed to have a financial crunch of any sort, not because of the words that can be said but because of the financial resource available to correct things.

I am not suggesting a wild spree of rising prices should occur again but as normalcy has returned to the market, value has been created. Those with strong nerves are more likely to have a better time than those who look at the doom and gloom.

What a change.

Less then ten years ago we would have said a black American US President was a 'no way' and that the US was not ready for such a step. With the amazing election of President Barrack Obama history has been made, but what is phenomenal that he never once played the ethnic or the race argument in his election campaign and instead concentrated on the issues of the war, the economy and the need for change in American society. From a virtually unknown junior senator he moved to forge the nation forward with a conviction that was infectious and a passion that was calm and his message was consistent. We have to also admire the man who picked off two formidable opponents, first Hilary Clinton for the nomination of his party and then John McCain in a style and way that saw them fall apart.

In this sense Obama was the voice of the young, and the unheard came to the fore with a crescendo that was deafening. He was gracious in his arguments and focused in his temperament allowing John McCain to even speak down to him in the debates, showing for once that while McCain wanted to feed off fear, Obama fed of the message of hope and bringing together an America that has challenges which were the result of the fears that both Bush and McCain, almost by default, were surviving off.

In a world where world statesmen are in short supply Barrack Obama for once has stepped forward and also claimed that role not only for himself but also now sets the stage for America once again to restore respect and dignity in the community of the nations. Indeed this is the moment where not only history is being made but he has offered a rare ray of hope to all, whether you are an American or not..

Zardari:Is this charming?

President Asif Ali Zardari is not new to meeting public figures, he lived in the shadow of the Late Benazir Bhutto for long, and indeed he is not new to meeting western women. Thus I see his opening remarks on meeting Sarah Palin a feeble attempt to be charming. Well initially! Complimenting her on looking 'more gorgeous in person' is perhaps right from the book 'The Game' but still acceptable to woo a woman who could be a heartbeat away from the White House one day. But then when asked by the cameramen to shake hands again his comment, 'if they keep insisting I might hug you' was lame, uncalled for and frankly totally out of order for the President of a country. I am a very liberal man, perhaps more than most Western men, but then wearing the mantle of a Presidency asks for people to bring some dignity to the position you hold.

I can see that Mr. Zardari sees himself as the champion of the fight against terrorism and this is where he and Sarah Palin might have alot of rhetoric to share. However, my former school mate, Asif I mean, has to understand that the problem of violence in Pakistan is a mixture of Taliban, Al Qadea and the lack of respect for the tribal system. I belong to that tribal system and I know a fair amount of how people of the Khyber Agency see things.

I am often then asked how to deal with this problem in the North of Pakistan? My solutions may not be complete but they will be certainly better than what is on offer at the moment. In the first place I would take a page from the book the British wrote about respecting the tribal system and working WITH it to control trouble. This would mean strengthening the Jirga (tribal councils) system and putting money into the tribal chiefs hands with the following deal; we will support your system if you have no taliban and no al Qadea in your region. If we know they are there then we will stop supporting you. The Pakhtun system is based on honor and respect and with the Pakistan and the US armed forces making incursions into tribal regions the traditional chiefs have lost face, power and respect in their own tribes. Yet they form the basis on which the society is knit together.

Yes the task is more difficult given that the Al Qadea and perhaps the Taliban have used money and religion to consolidate themselves in the tribal system, yet they have not got enough control over the populous of tribes who need to build their respect and trust into the tribal chiefs. While this will not solve the problems immediately but it will release the army from fighting the tribal people and deploy to protect more of the border.

However, all this may be too much for a new President to appreciate and understand for the moment, but then being in the job one either learns or just stumbles. What ever was discussed later between Palin and Zardari I cannot see it being highly enligthening considering her view is right wing hawkish and Zardari's view seems to be 'formative and lost'. I hope for the sake of Pakistan that the learning process of being diplomatic and charming is not all what we see from a President. We would want to see wisdom and leadership, not high school attempts at charm. The interesting thing is that what I would remember of Asif is that he can rise to the occasion, meeting Palin was certainly not one of them.

Sarah Palin: A view from abroad

When an unknown person pops up on the political stage, especially one that figures the center stage of the US Presidential election, we can either applaud the stroke of genius or wonder what the hell happened here. In the case of Sarah Palin, the emotions from the outside are neither, they are more like a total disbelief that a person who has governed a state where there are more elk then people and who prides herself to have 'pitbull' fighting instincts can be placed a heartbeat away from the most powerful person on Earth.

Thanks to the internet, the media and ofcourse seeing her in her first interview I have wondered to myself, do I want a woman who has not political sense of the world, (i.e. Bush Doctrine question drew a blank), has never met another head of state, and really doesn't have clue where perhaps the continents are to be the Vice President of a country that has made it its business to be in every backyard of the world; simply no way. Sarah Palin and the impending 'statetrooper-gate' matter clearly shows this woman carries her grudges, rewards her friends (five appointees who were school friends and takes her fights public. What seems dangerous is that she has enough people who will cover for her, take the fall for her, and judging by her body language and speech, this is one nasty woman in the neighborhood.

Now how would Sarah 'pitbull' Palin perform on the world scene? First of all she may be ignorant of the Bush Doctrine but she is cast too much in his mould. and therefore will have a propensity to continue to use force as a means of international policy. Second, since she seems to pride herself as someone who doesn't give up an argument it is more likely that her interface with world leaders will not be entirely pleasant. It is one thing to be intelligent and argumentative, but given she seems almost in grade one of international politics being argumentative may not be the wisest thing to do.

It would seem that the Palin factor will appeal to the hawks in the Republican party, but whether the Hillary supporters will shift from the Democrats to support a mediocre political lightweight remains to be seen. There is so far little substance to the striking looks of a woman who could perhaps be the most manipulative figure in US political history. I also suspect more will be revealed of the woman who pretty much sees herself as the lone sheriff in the old West town. The scary part is she will shoot before she looks, and that is where the problem is. Someone once said 'never put your mouth into motion before your brain is in gear'. It would seem that might be a word of advice for Sarah Palin.

Asif Zardari: President?

I went to school with Mr. Asif Zardari, at Cadet College Petaro, and last saw him briefly in Abu Dhabi when he made his first trip there as the spouse of the newly elected Prime Minister of Pakistan, Benazir Bhutto. The brief visit was at the Intercontinental Hotel in suite and it was awkward since he had just assumed an importance that he bubbled with and I was looking at someone who we never did take very seriously as classmates. That he had political ambitions was obvious as he dabbled in college politics even briefly being part of a take over of the college in 1971 when General Yahya's government collapsed and some cadets thought a military college deserved some egalitarian politics. I recall walking in to the office if the Principal and demanding the ring leader and his friends hand back the college, amongst the ringleaders was Asif too, but once the leader had been subdued Asif understood it was not to be.

We remained friends and I would say one thing over the years I admired that he looked after his friends, especially those who were 'loyal' to him, and this was in keeping with the politics of Pakistan. His wife, the charming Benazir remained more in contact as I had been in UAE and so was she in and out of the place. We met a few times, talked politics even exchanged a few opinions about her trials and tribulations. I always thought of her as very intelligent and charming and indeed engaging, however to this day I have wondered if she sincerely did improve the lot of the people of Pakistan or whether she tried but was working in a system where things are hard to change. Yet her myopia was interesting when she visited me the last time at my home in Abu Dhabi, this was years back, we did argue when she refused to admit that her ministers or party members have been corrupt. It was perhaps a sore point with her, but I would concede on balance she seemed to have had a better hope for Pakistan then others at that point in time.

Her death was indeed a loss and I did, or tried to do my duty of phoning in a condolence two weeks after the funeral. I never got to speak to Asif, and one of our common friends actually had the cheek to suggest that now 'Asif's political career is rising I am not surprised you are remembering him'. But then that is how Pakistan has become one contacts politicians because one wants something. For me the welfare of the country is all I want. Which brings one to the what Mr. Zaradari will do as President.

While I do not know him given he decades since we studied together, I am constrained to see his profile from the media. My guess he will get carried away, forgetting the role of the President and in a sense he may at some stage forget the Army does have a say in matters. He will wheel and deal his way through alot, and in many cases get away with it, but the biggest legacy he will have to face will that of whether he can rise about the corruption, or the temptation of it, whether he can be bipartisan, whether he can do what is good for Pakistan rather than what is good for him, or only his political party or indeed external powers.

I want Asif to succeed, not for his own good, but for the good of the country, and if in that process he gets a measure of success rubbed off on him great for him. However, the reality is that he seems to have wheeled himself into a position where the political process has little faith him, he has broken his word a few times already and most of all will he now restore the judges? In effect this is not a test of Asif Zardari, its a test for the system.

McCain-Palin: wool over the eyes

If I was only listening to the words from both Sen McCain and Gov Palin talking about Washington and how they will change Washington I would have sworn these were Democrats talking of changing eight years of Washington politics. Actually this is the biggest wool over the eyes attempt by the McCain-Palin camp to pretend that they are part of the people who will change eight years of mismanagement in Washington. It is almost as of McCain is trying to disown the Bush years, and in this way by putting aside the legacy he and Palin are running the risk of being in the mid stream of Republican politics and shedding them to be party less. Lets face it the McCain economic plan is exactly the same as that of the Bush years, so the current pain that is hurting American people is the same economic policies that McCain has embraced.

Gov Sarah Palin is ofcourse a surprise and while initially the gambit has paid off and the 'Palin who?' response was fed with her unique style of speech the reality is that she didn't say a word about universal medical care, education or the economy, actually showing how weak she is on these issues. The reality remains that the likes of McCain-Palin have never had the poor on the agenda and now try to review their mandate with rhetorical speeches; weak on substance, and emotional triggers. At the end of the day McCain played his prisoner of war (we are talking of the one over 35 years ago) card and Palin played her 'hockey mom' card when in reality none of her kids play hockey. Once the euphoria of all this dies we will find that Palin will actually be a liability even though she is being portrayed as an ideological heiress to the George W Bush without the liability of having been associated with him. The issue remains that she does not have the experience for the job and her handlers know (all politicians have handlers who tell them what to do) that there is just so much mileage you can get from stage craft.

If the American people buy this drama then indeed they have the wool pulled all the way over their face, perhaps down to their knees.